SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Tuesday 25th February 2025

Rare Earth prices climb as Trump looks to secure critical metals

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Ajax Resources PLC (AJAX LN) – Acquisition of Puna Metals, Argentina from Bezant Resources

Arkle Resources* (ARK LN) – Update on exploration in Botswana

Cobra Resources (COBR LN) – Recent drilling at Boland rare-earths project. South Australia

First Tin (1SN LN) – Progress on resource upgrade and EIS at Taronga

GreenRoc Strategic Materials Plc (GROC LN) – Management submit two applications to EU for Strategic Project status under the CRMA

Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN) – Exploration progress in the Western Forelands

MAC Copper (MATL US) – Production guidance and updated reserves

Rome Resources (RMR LN) – Further drilling results from Kalayi, DRC

Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) – Management update

Gold ($2,940/oz) holds ground amid risk off sentiment as focus turns to DOGE impacts

• Gold prices have pared yesterday’s after touching record highs of $2,957/oz.
• However, prices remain firm amid a wider market sell-off, with US Treasuries rallying whilst equities sell off.
• Gold ETF inflows are picking up, with the highest daily inflows recorded since November 2017 on Friday.
• The dollar has been edging lower as traders reconsider the impacts of Trump’s economic policies.
• The argument that tariffs may slow domestic growth, subsequently offsetting inflationary impacts, may be gaining traction, pushing yields down and weighing on the dollar.
• The Trump administration is highly focused on lowering the 10 year Treasury yield, which may be a further catalyst to higher gold prices as traders rotate from high-yielding bonds to gold for haven protection.
• Musk stated: “the bond markets do not currently reflect the savings that I’m confident we can achieve.”
• Economists have likened Musk’s DOGE cuts to austerity, with some expecting a jump in the unemployment rate from 2H25.
• Treasury Secretary Bessent has also been consistent in his messaging over lower long-duration yields given their role in the US economy.

Cobalt – The DRC temporarily suspended cobalt exports saying that the market is over supplied

• The ban is effective February 22 and is expected to be in place for four months (Reuters).

• China’s CMOC has raised exports from two mines causing prices to collapse hence the DRC’s desire to improve its royalty take by helping prices higher.
• China Inc, eg the CCP, have a definitive policy to reduce input costs to minimum levels.
• This serves to reduce their cost of manufacturing while also reducing tax and royalty payments to local governments.
• Indonesia and now the DRC are waking up to their resources being exploited and used up by China for relatively little compensation in return.

China boosts exposure to nickel with acquisition of Anglo assets

• Anglo American recently sold its Brazil nickel mines and process plants to MMG ltd for US$350m in cash and up to $100m in a price-linked earnout
• There is a further $50m in cash contingent on a number of development projects.
• The assets have capacity of 40,000tpa of nickel in ferronickel.
• The Brazilian nickel assets covered by the deal include the Barro Alto and Codemin ferronickel operations and the Jacaré and Morro Sem Boné greenfield projects.
• Anglo produced 39,400t of nickel in ferronickel last year and was targeting 37,000-39,000t this year.
• China imported 40,048t of ferronickel from Brazil in 2024 accordin gto Argus Media, down 36.3% on 2023 due to rising nickel production from Indonesia.

Sharepickers: Video – Last Time this Happened Gold went up by 180%:  

• Podcast: https://audioboom.com/posts/8658123-john-meyer-last-time-this-happened-gold-went-up-by-180

Economics

US – President Trump said 25% tariffs will go ahead from next week when a monthlong delay expires

• “The tariffs are going forward on time, on schedule,” Trump said when asked at a White House press conference (CNBC)
• President Macron in the first European leader visit to the new US administration met with his counterpart yesterday exposing a divide between the US and Europe over a potential ceasefire deal with Russia. (Reuters)
• President Trump urged sides to sign a ceasefire deal as soon as possible.
• France was more interest in a truce and a potential peace deal that would involve security guarantees.
• Both sides agreed on stationing peacekeeping European peacekeeping troops if the deal is reached.
• US drops demand for Ukraine to pay US$500bn for military support

China – China moves to ban profit-driven policing as entrepreneurs are encouraged to go for growth

• China is to ban regional authorities from giving fines to private businesses without a legal basis in a revised draft of its new legislation on private-economy promotion.
• Bankruptcies starting to catch up with sub-economic metals producers – how many more will fail?

Germany – Final GDP number confirmed earlier estimates with the economy contracting 0.2%qoq in 4Q24

• The economy posted a 0.2% annual drop in GDP marking a second annual contraction in a row.
• Consumer spending remained weak while a drop in business investments and negative contribution from net exports took weighed heavily on economic activity last year.

German chancellor takes swipe at Trump with “America Alone” comment

• Fredreich Merz, leader of the winning CDU party has warned its five minutes to midnight for Europe.
• The new chancellor is looking to reform the German constitution to allow it to ease debt conditions which restrict government spending.

UK – Household energy bill is set to climb 6.4% as Ofgem raises the price cap for the period between Arpil and June

• A typical household will pay £1,849pa, up from £1,738 before.
• The increase marks the third consecutive increase in the cap adding further pressure on household spending.
• Caps are reset every quarter to reflect changes in wholesale prices.

Ukraine/Russia – A US resolution calling for a “swift end” to the war in Ukraine passed the UN Security Council

• The resolution was backed by Moscow and Beijing while Uk
• France and the UK abstained.
• The final resolution did not call Russian forces to withdraw nor mentioned anything on Russian aggression or Ukraine’s territorial integrity as previously.
• Russia offered the US to jointly explore for and develop nation’s rare earth resources. (Reuters)
• Separately, Vladimir Putin said that Russia could ship up to 2mtpa of aluminium exports in case both countries agree a trade deal.
• Russia supplied up to 15% of US aluminium imports before sanctions were introduced in 2023.

Currencies

US$1.0468/eur vs 1.0478/eur previous. Yen 149.48/$ vs 149.30/$. SAr 18.404/$ vs 18.417/$. $1.262/gbp vs $1.264/gbp. 0.634/aud vs 0.637/aud. CNY 7.264/$ vs 7.248/$

Dollar Index 106.575 vs 106.571 previous.

Precious metals:         

Gold US$2,933/oz vs US$2,942/oz previous

Gold ETFs 85.1moz vs 84.5moz previous

Platinum US$967/oz vs US$972/oz previous

Palladium US$939/oz vs US$965/oz previous

Silver US$32.1/oz vs US$32.5/oz previous

Rhodium US$4,675/oz vs US$4,675/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$9,443/t vs US$9,493/t previous

Aluminium US$2,637/t vs US$2,652/t previous

Nickel US$15,330/t vs US$15,560/t previous

Zinc US$2,824/t vs US$2,894/t previous

Lead US$1,982/t vs US$2,012/t previous

Tin US$33,020/t vs US$33,675/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$75.0/bbl vs US$74.2/bbl previous

• Energy prices were unchanged as the market continues to speculate on the outcome of Russia-Ukraine peace talks and the threat of US tariffs on global energy flows.
• Wood Group surged 40% yesterday after the Board confirmed that the Company has received a new takeover approach from Dar Al-Handasah Consultants Shair and Partners Holdings (Sidara), which withdrew an indicative 230p/sh offer in 3Q24 in light of rising geopolitical risks and financial market uncertainty.

Natural Gas €46.9/MWh vs €46.5/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $64.7/lb vs $65.4/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$107.2/t vs US$107.7/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$486.9/t vs US$488.3/t

HCC FOB Australia US$187.7/t vs US$186.5/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$102.8/t vs US$102.8/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$21,550/t vs US$21,550/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$61,603/t vs US$60,913/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$9,911/t vs US$9,934/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$815/t vs US$815/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,005/t vs US$1,005/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$343/mtu vs US$343/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$430/t vs US$430/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$4.5/lb vs US$4.4/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.8/kg vs US$23.8/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$297/t vs US$297/t

Global Rutile Spot Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,543/t vs US$1,543/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$320.0/t vs US$320.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$2,725.0/kg vs US$2,725.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$385.0/kg vs US$385.0/kg

Battery News

Company News

Ajax Resources PLC (AJAX LN) 3.30p, Mkt cap £1.55m – Acquisition of Puna Metals, Argentina from Bezant Resources

• Ajax Resources has signed a Heads of Terms to acquire Puna Metals from Bezant Resources for an initial $120,000 of cash with a further US$100,000 of shares in Ajax.
• Puna Metals holds 12 licenses over the Eureka project in Argentina.
• Eureka is locates in the north-west of the Jujuy province in Northern Argentina in the Puna-Altiplano high-plateau, close to the border with Bolivia at an altitude of 3,600m.
• The project is a five hour drive from the provincial capital of San Salvador du Jujuy on good quality gravel roads.
• Eureka was historically mined by Jesuit miners from the 17th century using an artificial dam for water for sluicing gold from the ore.
• Further exploitation in the “La Perdida”, now the “El Torno” the “San Francisco” mines continued from 1885.
• Copper was also mined from ~1949 with sporadic mining to 1975.
• Further exploration was done by Mantos Blancos, Paramount Ventures, and Minera Penoles and Codelco from 1980 – 2001.
• There is a non-compliant resource estimate from Penoles of around 62mt grading ~1% copper and estimated 600,000t grading ~2.7 g/t of gold from Mantos Blancos.
  • “Bezant’s audited accounts to 31 December 2023 included total assets of £11K and liabilities of £105K in relation to the Eureka Project.”

Conclusion:  This is a transformational acquisition for Ajax Resources. We look forward to details of their first exploration on the Eureka prospects.

Arkle Resources* (ARK LN) 0.37p, Mkt Cap £2m – Update on exploration in Botswana

• Arkle Resources has reported results from regional sampling at its Makgadikgadi Salt Pans project in Botswana.
• The Company has identified lithium across all 20 samples, albeit at low grades.
• The exploration team suggests that there is the possibility for higher levels of lithium in other parts of the Pan.
• Additionally, Arkle notes elevated magnesium grades, with 8 samples recording over 1% Mg in brines.
• Arkle will advance exploration with shallow drilling to 30m depths to access a bulk sample for further test work.
• Company notes the potential to extract magnesium within a wider ion exchange DLE-based technology, although this will likely require the discovery of higher grade lithium brines.

*SP Angel are Nomad and Broker to Arkle Resources

Cobra Resources (COBR LN) 1.23p, Mkt cap £9.4m – Recent drilling at Boland rare-earths project. South Australia

• Cobra Resources reports that recent drilling at its Boland rare-earths project in South Australia has extended the continuity and extent of the paleochannel hosted mineralisation.
• The company has now received results from 20 aircore holes with data from a further 34 holes expected shortly.
• The new drilling increases “the tested footprint to 6km² … [and ] … represents the first stage of step-out resource definition drilling at Boland and is approximately 20% of a planned and funded drilling programme that will continue through H1 2025”.
• Among the results highlighted in the announcement are:
  • An intersection of 9m at an average grade of 1,690ppm total rare earth oxides (TREO) from a depth of 38m in hole CBAC-0206; and
  • 13m at an average grade of 1,735ppm TREO also from 38m in hole CBAC-0194; and
  • 4m at an average grade of 2,116ppm TREO from 50m in hole CBAC-0197; and
  • 7m at an average grade of 1,572ppm TREO from 53m in hole CBAC-0191; and
  • 4m at an average grade of 942ppm TREO from 15m in hole CBAC-0199.
• Managing Director, Rupert Verco, said that the results demonstrate “REE enrichment across a highly scalable footprint that can support a significant resource”.
• Mr. Verco explained that “Rare earth investment risk typically sits with the economics of extraction, but our metallurgical programme has substantially derisked Boland by demonstrating at lab scale that REE extraction can be achieved through ISR … [in-situ recovery] …. This will result in lower mining costs and reduced environmental risk without compromising on the quality of the product.
• The announcement explains that the zone of rare-earth enrichment within the Pidinga Formation “occurs within palaeochannel sediments and into underlying saprolite”.

Conclusion: The recent drilling demonstrates continuity and extension potential for the REE mineralisation at Boland and we look forward to the remaining results which are expected shortly.

First Tin (1SN LN) 4.98p, Mkt Cap £23m – Progress on resource upgrade and EIS at Taronga

• Reporting interim results for the six months to 31^st December 2024, First Tin announces a pre-tax loss of A$0.91m and an overall loss of A$2.01m after an additional A$1.10m from exchange rate differences.
• The company reports that, following the raising of A$10m during the period, it held a closing cash balance of A$8.36m.
• Operational highlights for the Taronga tin project in New South Wales include the expected submission of the EIS in “late March/April 2025” as well as the “Successful trial blast completed in October, confirming technical viability and potential operational cost savings”.
• The company is also highlighting a “10,000m drilling programme … to convert in-pit Inferred resources … [at Taronga] … to Indicated and Measured status, supporting potential mine life expansion” as well as continuing metallurgical work to improve recovery rates and the operational efficiency of the processing plant.
• Elsewhere the company reports that its Mining Authority approval application for the Tellerhäuser project in Germany continues to progress and that it is finalising its updated mineral resource estimate for another German deposit at Gottesberg.
• Also in Germany, “exploration … [is continuing at the] … Gottesberg and Dreiberg license areas, assessing further resource potential”.
• Welcoming the progress, CEO, Bill Scotting, said that the “completion and submission of the Taronga EIS will be a major milestone, bringing us closer to securing Developmental Approval. Additionally, our ongoing metallurgical testwork and drilling programme at Taronga aim to further enhance project economics and extend mine life”.
• He also welcomed the “continued permitting progress at Tellerhäuser and resource development work at Gottesberg”.
• He also highlighted the “broader tin market dynamics … [which] … continue to present significant opportunities, with tin’s role in the energy transition and digital infrastructure becoming increasingly recognised … [positioning First Tin] … to become a leading supplier of responsibly sourced tin”.

Conclusion: First Tin expects to submit its Environmental Impact Study for Taronga by early April as it seeks development approval.  We await results from the planned 10,000m resource upgrade drilling programme with interest as the company aims to upgrade the ‘Inferred’ resources at Taronga as well as further news from the German projects, with interest.

GreenRoc Strategic Materials Plc (formerly GreenRoc Mining) (GROC LN) 1.40p, Mkt Cap £2.73m – Management submit two applications to EU for Strategic Project status under the CRMA

• GreenRoc Strategic Materials reports the submission of two applications to the EU with regard to designation of Strategic Project status under the CRMA, the EU Critical Raw Materials Act.
• One application is for:
  • the extraction of graphite from the Amitsoq graphite deposit in Greenland.
  • the other is for the processing of graphite concentrate into active anode material in Norway.
• The first batch of Strategic Projects is due to be announced in March.
• Greenland has now completed its external review on GreenRoc’s application for an Exploitation Licence at Amitsoq.
  • “The application is now ready for final approval by the Greenland Government before it proceeds into the statutory 35 days of public consultation.“
• Greenland will hold a general election in Greenland on 11 March which will likely push the start of the public consultation into the second half.
• Management now expect the project to be granted its Exploitation license by the end of this year.
• The team are also using Digbee to report on their ESG at Amitsoq to ensure alignment with global ESG standards, transparency, reduce risk to assist in offtake discussions with automotive and component manufacturers.
• ProGraphite in Germany are running a series of extended purification tests from 10kg of graphite concentrate.
• The spheronised graphite is to be tested using sodium hydroxide as the main purification agent, followed by a sulphuric acid finish to achieve >99.95% graphite.
• A hydrofluoric acid-free purification process also provides opportunity to reducing the environmental footprint, reducing hazardous risks and the cost of processing into active anode material.
• Amitsoq PFS (11 July 2024):
  • NPV of US$621m vs $545m – post tax
  • IRR 26.5% vs 25.3%
  • Capex $340m vs $321m
  • Opex $1,872/t vs $2,211/t
  • Production 80,000tpa of concentrate – remains the same
  • Production 39,700tpa active anode material – remains the same
  • Includes: onsite production of de-ionised water and construction of a plant for the production of nitrogen.
• Potential to cut operating costs to US$1,662 using sodium hydroxide (NaOH) instead of hydrofluoric acid (HF) could increase Capex cutting post-tax NPV8 to US$601m with an IRR of 23.7%.
• For further information on mining in Greenland, BBC news on “Inside the race for Greenland’s mineral wealth”: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9d5jwvw9nlo

Conclusion: GreenRoc continues to advance towards the funding and approval of its Amitsoq graphite deposit in Greenland. The critical nature of its product and strategic location should ensure the mine is funded and developed for the benefit of EU EV manufacturing.

Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN) C$14.7, Mkt Cap C$19.6bn – Exploration progress in the Western Forelands

• Ivanhoe provides an update on their exploration efforts in the DRC.
• The Company completed 80,000m of diamond drilling in the Western Forelands over 2024, focusing on a western extension potential of the Makoko deposit.
• Company reports that ‘drilling confirmed the continuation of mineralisation stepping further west from the Makoko area.’
• Ivanhoe reports the strike length of the Makoko mineralised district has increased by 20%, lying 10km from the western edge of Kakula’s orebody.
• Ivanhoe reported Makoko’s maiden MRE in November 2023 at:
  • Indicated: 16mt at 3.55% Cu
  • Inferred: 154mt at 1.97% Cu (1.5% COG)
• The team has acquired additional licences along strike of Makoko West, which remains open along strike westward.
• Ivanhoe has now approved a 2025 exploration budget of $75m, with $50m dedicated to the Western Forelands with 102,000m of diamond drilling and 18,000m of RC drilling.
• The Company is also spending $9m on drilling in Kazakhstan with Pallas Resources, with a further $16m for Angola, South Africa and Zambia.
• Ivanhoe is aiming to update the Makoko MRE in 2Q25, and provide maiden resource estimates for Kitoko and Makoko West.

MAC Copper (MATL US) $10.7, Mkt Cap $744m – Production guidance and updated reserves

• Australian copper producer MAC, who are operating the ex-Glencore CSA mine in NSW, provide an update on resources and reserves.
• The Company holds 545kt Cu in reserves at an average grade of 3.4% Cu and 13.3g/t Ag.
• The Company holds an additional 464kt in contained copper resources at an average grade of 5.4% Cu and 19g/t Ag.
• Zinc resource of 173kt contained  Zn grading 7.3%.
• The 2024 mineral reserve extends 70m below the current decline position.
• Company guides for 2025 production of 43-48kt Cu, growth CAPEX of US$20-25m and sustaining CAPEX of US$40-50m.
• 2026 production guided at 49-53kt Cu at Cu grades of 3.6%-3.8%.

Rome Resources (RMR LN) 0.31p, Mkt Cap £18m – Further drilling results from Kalayi, DRC

• Rome Resources reports more results from 2 more holes from its mineral resource diamond drilling programme at the Kilayi prospect in North Kivu Province, DRC.
• The results support earlier results from the programme, reported last month, and demonstrate “multiple sub-parallel ore shoots” extending from surface with mineralisation “remaining open at depths beyond 250m”.
• Highlighted results today are:

• • An intersection of 3.3m at an average grade of 1.77% tin from a downhole depth of 96.85m in hole KBDD-015 with a second intersection of 5.7m at an average grade of 1.35% tin from 147.90m depth; and
  • An intersection of 9.5m at an average grade of 0.60% tin from a downhole depth of 126.45m in hole KBDD-016 including a higher grade portion of 1.7m at an average of 1.61% tin

• Today’s announcement draws parallels between the geological setting at Kalayi and at “Alphamin’s Mpama South deposit, with potential for deeper high-grade mineralised zones”.
• It also explains that “Tin mineralisation intercepted 80m below KBDD015 and KBDD016 is expected to materially enhance the resource potential, significantly expanding the known mineralised system”.
• CEO, Paul Barrett, explained that “With over 4,135m drilled to date, we are moving rapidly towards defining our maiden inferred mineral resource estimate, which will be a major step in demonstrating the full potential of this emerging tin asset”.
• He expressed increasing confidence “in the project’s growing scale and the continuity of high-grade tin mineralisation at depth … [which reinforces] … Kalayi’s economic potential”.
• “Results for the bulk of the Kalayi drilling programme are expected in the first quarter of 2025 contributing to the proposed maiden inferred mineral resource estimate”.
• The company also takes the opportunity to confirm that its “Operations remain unaffected by unrest in Goma and Bukavu”.

Conclusion: The latest drilling results from Kalayi confirm tin mineralisation remains open at depth in multiple structures. We look forward to the initial mineral resource estimate base on the outcome of this drilling. The company also confirms that its exploration is not affected by the current unrest.

Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) 0.05p, Mkt Cap £1.9m – Management update

• Tertiary has appointed Dr. Richard Belcher as their new Managing Director.
• Dr Belcher is a PhD geologist and has held senior positions at Altus Strategies and ANS Exploration.
• His focus has been on exploration in Zambia and South Africa.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Tertiary Minerals

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

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+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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