SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Tuesday 23rd January 2023

China considering $280bn cash injection to stabilise crumbling stock market

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Atlantic Lithium* (ALL LN) – Assore notifies market of increase in shareholding to 28.4% as potential precursor to hostile offer

Botswana Diamonds (BOD LN) – Geophysics delivers early indications of a potential kimberlite cluster in Botswana

Golden Metal Resources (GMET LN) – New exploration perspective on the Garfield project, Nevada

Great Southern Copper (GSCU LN) – Completion of scout drilling at the Abundante prospect, Chile

Great Western Mining* (GWMO LN) – Agreement to drill contiguous claims at West Huntoon copper porphyry target

Jubilee Metals Group (JLP LN) – Maintaining FY 2024 production guidance subject to importing key equipment for its copper operation in Zambia

Sovereign Metals* (SVML LN) – Valuation 55p – SocialEssence appointed to lead social and community development programs in Malawi

Orosur Mining* (OMI LN) – Update on Anzá JV negotiations to return control to Orosur

China – Government considering $280bn cash injection to stabilise crumbling stock market

China held its 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rate yesterday and then followed with news to prop up its equity market

• The Shanghai Composite Index hit a 5-year low with overseas funds selling $1.6bn of Chinese equities in January.
• The news lifted the index by 0.5% while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.38%.
• The move highlights how vulnerable Chinese markets are to overseas influence. The authorities are also considering other options.
• The one-year interest rate stands at 3.45%. Five-year rates are based on 4.2%. This is the basis for mortgage financing and refinancing.
• Chinese citizens have been slow to return to consumption and property buying since covid.
• There is some ‘speculation’ that more Chinese people are looking to move cash offshore and this may be driving Bitcoin and possibly some other crypto currencies.
• The PBoC has been looking to slow the exodus of funds out of China with the US dollar gaining 5.6% on the Yuan over the past year.
• The Yuan’s fall was not helped by a 4.6% fall in exports to $3.38tn led by price falls in rare earths and aluminium.
• A 13% fall in exports to the US led the decline as higher US interest rates combined with the reshoring of component manufacturing and a degree of global uncertainty with the war in Ukraine.
• Deflation: China is working to contain deflationary pressures despite better-than-expected GDP of 5.2%.
• CPI fell by 0.3% yoy in December though this was not as dramatic as the 0.5% fall for November. 2023 CPI rose by just 0.2% with National Bureau of Statistics of China
• Core consumer prices, excluding food and energy, increased 0.6% yoy in December.
• Property prices may well fall this year if the PBoC does not drop rates causing further deflationary pressure.
• While it may be difficult to run a carry trade to arbitrage between Chinese and US interest rates, higher rates in the US will continue to attract capital that might have formerly gone into new investment in China.
• We wonder if this is partly why the Fed is keen to maintain higher interest rates for longer than appears strictly necessary.

Nickel slumps as Indonesian supply soars into weak market

• Nickel prices are holding weak around the $16,300/t mark, down over 40% yoy.
• Analysts report nickel mine supply rose 16% yoy in November, with the market surplus climbing over 400ktpa.
• Indonesia accounted for c.30% of global mine supply in 2023, having ramped up supply into the battery chain from their nickel laterite HPAL operations.
• Indonesia production rose 29% in Jan-November 2023.
• Exchange stockpiles are surging, Q4 stockpiles jumped from 37kt beginning of September to 69.5kt now.
• Australian nickel majors are calling for government support, with Forrest’s Wyloo requesting a 10% production tax credit for downstream nickel processing.
• Wyloo is also requesting access to government funding and royalty relief and Glencore suggested that the Australian Labor party needs to support producers to avoid further mine closures and job cuts.

Gold holds despite fading rate cut expectations

• Gold prices are holding around the $2,030/oz mark in the spot market.
• The move comes despite higher US Treasury yields on the back of hawkish Fed comments and concerns over sticky inflation.
• US rate cut expectations for March now stand c.42%, having hit 80% at the beginning of the month.
• 10-year yields have risen to 4.13%, having touched 3.77% in December.
• The dollar is steady, with the index holding around 103.3, up 3.5% from recent lows.
• Key data points this week include S&P Global PMIS on Wednesday, Real GDP data on Thursday and personal income and outlays data on Friday.

Lithium – Woodmac turn bearish on spodumene prices on expectations of strong lepidolite supply

• The Australian Financial Review reports that Woodmac’s US$950/t spodumene price through to 2029 was a key reason for the credit syndicate withdrawing Liontown’s financing this weekend.
• The price forecasting group expects prices to remain weak, albeit more stable than the c.90% drop seen over the past 12 months.
• Spodumene projects are expected to continue to come online and shift the market further into surplus.
• Woodmac also considers lepidolite production to rise given their integrated nature with downstream battery material producers such as CATL.
• We remain more positive on spodumene prices and highlight Ganfeng continuing to source supply, doubling offtake from Greenbushes and building its stake in the Goulamina lithium project in Mali.
• We are sceptical that such considerable amounts of spodumene are able to come online in western Australia at current prices, with reports of auctions at c.$850/t in WA.
• Note the problems hitting Liontown, Core, Sayona and likely MinRes at current spot prices.
• As regards lepidolite production, we question the viability of such low grade operations in current pricing environments. Major operations grade at c.0.4% equivalent Li20 vs typical spodumene operators grading 1.2%.
• We question China’s ability to continue producing from lepidolite projects at current prices, highlighting the current investigation into Alita Resources selling lithium below market prices.
• DSO operations from Zimbabwe are also likely under margin pressure at current rates.
• Mysteel reports demand is improving slightly from LMO and LCO manufacturers, but LFP manufacturers continue to destock amid low utilisation rates.
• Vocal bears Shanghai Metals Market now expect carbonate prices to remain steady going forward around the $13k/t level, with the Lunar New Year holiday likely weighing on both downstream buying and upstream producing.
• Market supply is reportedly shrinking as miners are stockpiling ore and Jiangxi smelters are trimming scheduled production.

Economics

Japan – BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda confirms the economy heading towards its expected inflation 1.9%

• Core inflation forecast is at 1.9% close to the BoJ 2% target. Seems that all central banks off this as a target even if some are not that bothered if they meet it.

• Lower cost imports from China should combine with recent weakness in consumption to holding back prices.

Currencies

US$1.0907/eur vs 1.0897/eur previous. Yen 147.29/$ vs 148.05/$. SAr 19.108/$ vs 19.140/$ $1.274/gbp vs $1.270/gbp. 0.660/aud vs 0.659/aud. CNY 7.170/$ vs 7.196/$.

Dollar Index 103.13 vs 103.26 previous.

Commodity News

Precious metals:

Gold US$2,031/oz vs US$2,024/oz previous

Gold ETFs 84.3moz vs 84.5moz previous

Platinum US$908/oz vs US$899/oz previous

Palladium US$947/oz vs US$930/oz previous

Silver US$22.34/oz vs US$22/oz previous

Rhodium US$4,550/oz vs US$4,550/oz previous

Base metals:

Copper US$ 8,420/t vs US$8,366/t previous

Aluminium US$ 2,179/t vs US$2,171/t previous

Nickel US$ 16,305/t vs US$16,015/t previous

Zinc US$ 2,503/t vs US$2,462/t previous

Lead US$ 2,152/t vs US$2,104/t previous

Tin US$ 26,130/t vs US$25,425/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$80.3/bbl vs US$78.0/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices edged higher after the US and UK launched further strikes against Houthi military targets in Yemen, which risks further inflaming tensions in the Red Sea region.
• President Javier Milei has removed plans to privatise YPF, Argentina’s state-owned oil and gas company, from the sweeping reform bill that he is trying to get approved by Argentina’s congress.

Natural Gas €27.5/MWh vs €26.7/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $106.0/lb vs $106.0/lb previous

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (cfr Tianjin) US$128.3/t vs US$129.6/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$574.1/t vs US$572.0/t

Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$93.3/t vs US$96.3/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$124.0/t vs US$122.0/t

Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$321.0/t vs US$321.0/t

Other:

Cobalt LME 3m US$29,135/t vs US$29,135/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$56,001/t vs US$55,792/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$12,065/t vs US$12,020/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,000/t vs US$1,000/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,063/t vsUS$1,062/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$305/mtu vs US$305/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$590/t vs    US$590/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% 6.0/lb vs US$6.0/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% 28.75/kg vs US$28.75/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$317/t vs US$316/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$66.1/t vs US$65.2/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$295.0/t vs US$295.0/t

EV & Battery News

Mercedes to test new autonomous driving lights

• Mercedes-Benz has received the first approval to test turquoise-coloured lights that indicate when the vehicle is using its automated-driving-system (ADS).
• The automaker will be able to test these lights in California and Nevada.
• In California, the permit enables selected Drive Pilot production models to be equipped with special marker lights.
• Drive Pilot is Mercedes-Benz’s SAE Level 3 self-driving system for conditionally automated driving.
• With Drive Pilot, the car can drive itself at speeds of up to nearly 40mph but requires the driver to be ready for human intervention if required.
• Among the many reasons ADS-equipped vehicles haven’t progressed more rapidly is a lack of external indication when the vehicle’s ADS is engaged, as well as the absence of a visible signal that reveals the vehicle’s intended movement.
• The inclusion of marker lights aims at enhancing public acceptance of automated driving and contributing to road safety, as the lights clearly visualise the ADS status on the exterior.

 Company News

Atlantic Lithium* (ALL LN) 20.20p, Mkt cap £126m – Assore notifies market of increase in shareholding to 28.4% as potential precursor to hostile offer

• Assore International Holdings Limited reports it has raised its stake to 28.40% from 25.06%.
• We suspect the move may be a precursor to an offer for the company .
• UK takeover provisions do not apply as Atlantic Lithium is incorporated in Australia but Assore have bought the maximum that the 3% creep provision allows every six months.
• Atlantic management have already rejected offers from Assore to take over the business on at least two occasions.
• Assore have been long-standing backers of Atlantic supporting the IPO in 2015 and continuing to back the company through its transition into lithium.
• The group runs a series of bulk commodity mines in South Africa and holds 50% of Assmang (manganese), 100% of Dwarsrivier Chrome mine and 100% of Wonderstone.
• Assore also holds 26.6% of Gemfields and ~14% of Vision Blue Resources as well as its 28.4% stake in Atlantic Lithium.
• Given the worsening political, security situation in South Africa we would not be surprised to see more South African based businesses move to consolidate assets outside the region.

Conclusion: We suspect Assore will be preparing for another potentially less friendly run on the company

*SP Angel acts as Nomad to Atlantic Lithium. Two mining analysts from SP Angel recently visited the Ewoyaa mine site in Ghana and drove onto Takoradi to check the quality of the road to port. Our analysts also visited the Ministry of Minerals Commission and MIIF, the Ghana Minerals Income Investment Fund.

Botswana Diamonds (BOD LN) 0.45p, Mkt Cap £5.0m – Geophysics delivers early indications of a potential kimberlite cluster in Botswana

• Botswana Diamonds reports the discovery of a gravity anomaly, described as “similar in size to the … [nearby 3.5 hectare] … KX36 diamond discovery” in Botswana which is reported to contain … resources of 17.9 million tonnes (“Mt”) at 35 carats per hundred tonnes (“cpht”) (indicated) and 6.7Mt at 36 cpht (inferred) at $65 per carat”.
• The anomaly described as “high-grade” is located 6km south of the KX36 kimberlite pipe and is one of four similar anomalies identified to date suggesting the potential for a cluster of pipes in the area.
• Acknowledging that it “is early days but very good news” for the exploration potential of the area, Chairman, John Teeling, pointed out that “Kimberlites come in clusters, but extensive exploration has to date not been successful”.

Conclusion: In May 2022, Botswana Diamonds reported the identification of four geophysical anomalies described as “magnetic highs along fault structures” within a six-km radius of KX36 – given the similar distance from the KX36 kimberlite, we assume that the gravity anomalies announced today represent the results of follow-up exploration of earlier geophysics and await further news with interest.

Golden Metal Resources (GMET LN) 10.5p, Mkt Cap £8.4m – New exploration perspective on the Garfield project, Nevada

1. Golden Metal Resources has provided a progress report on its exploration of its wholly-owned its Garfield project area in the Walker-Lane Belt of Nevada.
2. The company says that, following the identification of “high grade gold-silver-copper” in bedrock, announced earlier this month, it has re-examined its geological mapping and sampling and identified a “Magnetic Bullseye anomaly (often associated with intrusive porphyry centres) identified at the Project’s High-Grade Zone”.
3. This review leads the company to postulate “that epithermal mineralisation overprints earlier porphyry mineralising event, increasing the overall prospectivity and most importantly the gold-silver potential of the 4km²mineralised area”.
4. Oliver Friesen, CEO, described the “typical next stage when exploring for porphyry deposits … [which involves a] … search for a geophysical anomaly which could represent a porphyry centre at depth. To our excitement, this was identified by a third party survey and is located within the High-Grade Zone, which happens to be broadly overlapping the uranium target identified during the same exploration programme”.
5. He confirmed that “the Company is quickly moving towards determining optimal next exploration steps” to maintain the project’s momentum.

Conclusion: Golden Metal Resources has reviewed the recent exploration results from its Garfield project in Nevada and identified what it believes is epithermal overprinting of pre-existing porphyry mineralisation over an area of 4km². We await further news as the programme develops.

Great Southern Copper (GSCU LN) 2.45p, Mkt Cap £8.2m – Completion of scout drilling at the Abundante prospect, Chile

• Great Southern Copper reports that it has now completed a six-hole reverse-circulation (RC) scout drilling programme at the Abundante prospect within its Especularita project area in Chile and the drilling has now moved to the Terersita prospect, also at Especularita.
• The company drilled a total of 484m at the former Abundante copper mine site, targeting breccia-hosted copper mineralisation and reports that visible copper mineralisation was observed in four of the holes.
• Oxide and sulphide copper mineralisation was identified in holes RC-001, 002, 003 and 004 while “Hole RC005 tested the potential for horizontal strike extension of the breccia to the north and holes ESP23RC006 and the bottom half of hole 004 tested a magnetic low anomaly to the east of the outcropping breccia”.
• The company reports that hole RC-002 and RC-004 “both intersected continuous breccia with visible Cu mineralisation over 10 and 31 metres respectively, before ending in old mine workings in the case of RC002 and crossing the east bounding fault in the case of RC004”.
• A total of 445 samples from the programme have been sent for assaying.
• Drilling has now switched to the Teresita prospect where hole “ESP24RC007, is currently in progress targeting high-grade assays from surface rock chip samples of the Central Vein. Subsequent holes are also planned to test the Gato Negro and Grossa veins”.
• The initial exploration target at Teresita consists of “high-grade Au-Cu mineralisation associated with quartz-carbonate vein-breccias” extending over “a cumulative strike length over 5km and … [where] … rock chip samples have returned grades up to 13.7g/t Au³ and 7.22% Cu”.

Conclusion: We await assay results from the scout drilling at Abundante and further news from the continuing programme at Teresita with interest.

Great Western Mining* (GWMO LN) 0.06p, Mkt Cap £2.9m – Agreement to drill contiguous claims at West Huntoon copper porphyry target

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• Great Western provides an update on its copper projects in Mineral County, Nevada.
• The Company has signed a new exploration agreement with Crowne Point Gold and Silver LLC to advance exploration at its Huntoon Valley.
• The two parties had originally shared a similar exploration agreement in 2016.
• The basis of the agreement is to continue building on recent exploration success at the West Huntoon claims, were GWM has identified a potential copper porphyry.
• Crowne Point holds six claims surrounded by GWM’s 126 full and 12 fractured claims.
• The agreement gives GWM access to these six claims, which are well supported by road infrastructure, assigning a 50% interest in nine unpatented claims to Crowne Point.
• Copper/base metals discovered by GWM will be owned 50/50 on Crowne Point’s claims whilst precious metals discovered will be shared 70/30 by Crowne Point and GWM respectively.
• Given the six claims are held privately by Crowne Point, GWM will be able to drill without regulatory approval.
• The Great Western team will look to aim to prove up the potential copper porphyry identified in the 2023 field season.

Conclusion: Great Western’s West Huntoon project is one of their most prospective following the recent porphyry potential development. This agreement with Crowne Point enables them to properly explore the asset, with GWM now able to take advantage of the private land to accelerate drilling at target areas. Management reiterates their interest in securing a joint venture partner to initiate a drill programme on the project at the scale it warrants.

*SP Angel act as Broker to Great Western Mining, an SP Angel Analyst has visited Great Western’s Nevada claim blocks.

Jubilee Metals Group (JLP LN) – 5.65p, Mkt cap £177m – Maintaining FY 2024 production guidance subject to importing key equipment for its copper operation in Zambia

• Jubilee Metals reports that its Q2 operational results for the 3 months to 31^st December 2023 keep it on track to attain its FY 2024 production guidance.
• Chrome concentrate production increased by 13.2% over the quarter to 381,114t described as “a new quarterly production record” and bring FYTD output to 717,797t with guidance of 1.45mt remaining intact.
• PGM production of 10,131oz during the quarter at Inyoni brings FYTD output to 20,224oz and keeps the guidance of 42,000oz for the full year intact.
• Quarterly copper production of 749t brings output for H1 to 1,683t as Project Roan’s new 50,000tpm capacity “allows Roan to simultaneously process multiple feed sources”.
• “Roan will continue to operate at approximately 50% of full capacity while an alternative solution is being pursued to source the electrical components which includes the option to locally manufacture the components. A 9 weeks delay is expected to the upgrade of the Roan project”.
• Although the company acknowledges that the “front-end upgrade has suffered delays in completion due to delayed delivery of an imported critical electrical component caused by logistical challenges at South African ports” it is currently maintaining its full year copper production guidance of 5,850t “pending confirmation of the manufacturing timeline of the electrical component delaying the front-end upgrade of the Project Roan”.
• Elsewhere, the “expansion of the sulphide copper recovery circuit at the Sable Refinery is progressing to schedule with installation expected to commence during Q3 CY2024 which aligns with the expected near-term increase in copper concentrate delivery from the various copper expansion projects”.

Conclusion: Halfway through its FY, Jubilee Metals is maintaining its production guidance although the company cautions that its copper target is subject to successfully importing key electrical components through South Africa.

Orosur Mining* (OMI LN) 3.5p, Mkt Cap £6.6m – Update on Anzá JV negotiations to return control to Orosur

• Orosur provides an update on its Colombian gold project, Anzá .
• The project is subject to an exploration agreement with MMA, which is a 50/50 JV between Newmont and Agnico Eagle.
• MMA announced last year it would conduct a review over the Project having earnt a 51% interest.
• Negotiations are ongoing between Orosur and MMA as Orosur wishes to reacquire a direct or indirect interest of 100% in Anzá.
• The Company reports today that negotiations are progressing, with both parties exploring various structuring options.

Conclusion: Negotiations continue between Orosur and the Newmont/Agnico Eagle JV in Colombia. Orosur’s management sees notable value in the Anzá  project and considers it a strong asset to retain in their portfolio. The complexities of the JV structure require an extended period of due diligence and consideration before Orosur can reacquire the asset.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Orosur Mining

Sovereign Metals* (SVML LN) 22.40p, Mkt Cap £248m – SocialEssence appointed to lead social and community development programs in Malawi

Valuation 55p

• Sovereign Metals report the appointment of SocialEssence to lead social and community development programs for the company in Malawi.
• The company has previously worked with First Quantum Minerals in Zambia on the Trident and Kansanshi mining projects.
• SocialEssence involves some 7,000 local farmers in a conservation program in Zambia which are led by SocialEssence’s current Livelihood Specialist.
• The late Philip Pascal who founded and ran First Quantum till he stepped down in 2022 was particularly keen to see local Zambian’s develop work, education, health and community programs.
• Pascal’s thoughtful focus has helped lift thousands of Zambian farmers out of the poverty of simple subsistence farming.
• Sovereign has the world’s largest rutile resource at 1.8bn grading 1.01% rutile.
• Sierra Rutile, the world’s largest rutile producer is expected to run down its operations in Sierra Leone within the next three years.

Conclusion:  Sovereign Metals along with its jv partner Rio Tinto are looking to build on the work done by First Quantum and SocialEssence to support farmers and communities in Malawi around the prospective Kasiya rutile and graphite project.

*SP Angel act as Nomad and broker to Sovereign Metals.  

No.1 in Copper:  “The winner of the 2020 Fastmarkets Apex contest for copper was the team at SP Angel comprising John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore, with an accuracy score of 93.8%”

No1. In Gold:  “SP Angel’s trio took the top spot for the gold price prediction throughout the year, with an accuracy score of 97.59%”

The SP Angel team also ranked 1st in Palladium, 3rd in Tin and 5th in Silver in the fourth quarter of 2020

Analysts

John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Sales

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Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

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