Titanium prices continue to pick up in China defying widespread gloom
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
Atlantic Lithium* (ALL LN)– Len Kolff acquires 3m shares in Atlantic
BHP (BHP LN) – Lower commodity prices and inflationary pressures impact financial performance
Gem Diamonds (GEMD LN) – Diamond production guidance maintained as the Letšeng diamond mine adjusts ore volumes processed
Great Western Mining* (GWMO LN) – CLICK FOR PDF – Update on Mill construction progress
Kore Potash* (KP2 LN) – New minister of mines pledges support for Kore’s potash projects in the Republic of Congo
Lucara Diamonds (LUC CN) – Another large diamond recovered from Karowe
Resolute Mining (RSG LN) – 2023 Production guidance maintained as interim results benefit from increased production at Syama
Wishbone Gold* (WSBN LN) – CLICK FOR PDF– Drilling equipment mobilised to the Cottesloe Project, Paterson Range
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Commodity News
Titanium prices continue to pick up in China defying gloom in other areas
- Some commodities continue to defy the gloom in China with Ilmenite concentrates increasing in value since mid July.
- Ilmenite TiO2 46% concentrate has risen to CNY 2,230-2,280/t from CNY 2106-2210/t.
- The move reflects increasing uncertainty in the market for titanium feedstock, eg.ilmenite and rutile concentrates.
- Rio Tinto recently elected to invest $40.4m into Sovereign Metals* taking a 15% direct stake to help advance the Kasiya project in Malawi.
- The market had previously expected to see ilmenite and rutile concentrates coming from Base Resources’ Toliara project in Madagascar, which is suffering an inordinately long wait for its mining license.
- Other ilmenite and rutile mines are running down their resources often with lower grades being mined.
- The market for titanium feedstocks is like a game of musical chairs but with much larger implications for consumers if they are left without adequate feedstock supply to feed their titanium dioxide converters.
*SP Angel act as nomad and broker to Sovereign Metals
Lead prices jump to ytd highs on supply concerns and heavy short positions
- Lead prices climbed to $2,180/t overnight, their highest point since January 2023.
- Analysts note that shanghai inventories are depleted, with significant amounts due for delivery next month.
- Over $182m worth of lead have been sold due next month, with a major Chinese broker short 82kt set to be delivered in September. (Reuters)
- Inventory levels in Shanghai currently sit at 53,800t.
- Traders note the depletion is a result of an arbitrage opportunity in June, with China exports jumping.
- Open interest has doubled, and futures currently sit in backwardation, suggesting spot demand is increasing.
Gold bounces from lows as US Treasuries hold near 2007 highs
- Gold prices are climbing from their March lows, hovering around the $1,900/oz mark.
- Treasuries experienced another day of weakness, sliding to 4.35% on the 10 years, highest since November 2007.
- Higher yields are placing major pressure on gold prices, pushing investors to chase higher yields on their safe haven assets. SPDR holdings are currently at 3.5 year lows.
- Hedge funds are slashing bullish positions on gold, with COMEX net long positions falling 50% this year.
- Expect signs of US labour market loosening to provide a welcome tailwind to gold prices, although this remains elusive to date.
Currencies
US$1.0922/eur vs 1.0886/eur yesterday. Yen 145.85/$ vs 145.38/$. SAr 18.871/$ vs 19.036/$. $1.279/gbp vs $1.274/gbp. 0.644/aud vs 0.640/aud. CNY 7.289/$ vs 7.219/$.
Dollar Index 103.11 vs 103.33 yesterday.
Economics
Japan
- BoJ Core CPI +3.3% yoy vs 2.9% forecast
Ghana extends deadline for domestic bond swaps as debt restructuring continues
- Ghana’s finance ministry has extended the deadline for an $810m swap of US dollar bonds from Aug.18 to Aug.25th.
- They have also extended a swap offer to pension funds worth $2.8bn of domestic debt to Aug. 25th.
- The ministry expects the restructuring of domestic bonds to ‘lay the basis for rapid recovery.’
Precious metals:
Gold US$1,899/oz vs US$1,890/oz yesterday
Gold ETFs 90.1moz vs US$90.4moz yesterday
Platinum US$921/oz vs US$915/oz yesterday
Palladium US$1,254/oz vs US$1,255/oz yesterday
Silver US$23.33/oz vs US$22.86/oz yesterday
Rhodium US$4,100/oz vs US$4,100/oz yesterday
Base metals:
Copper US$ 8,344/t vs US$8,248/t yesterday
Aluminium US$ 2,166/t vs US$2,137/t yesterday
Nickel US$ 20,490/t vs US$20,130/t yesterday
Zinc US$ 2,346/t vs US$2,303/t yesterday
Lead US$ 2,180/t vs US$2,148/t yesterday
Tin US$ 26,100/t vs US$25,260/t yesterday
Energy:
Oil US$84.4/bbl vs US$85.5/bbl yesterday
- European energy prices continue to be driven by sentiment on Australian LNG strike talks, which have fallen this morning after Woodside’s CEO said it was having “constructive” discussions with the unions.
- Media reports that Shell has whittled down bidders for its southern North Sea gas fields to a final three of Ithaca, Perenco and Viaro. The package of UK gas assets, which includes the Leman Alpha hub, the Clipper field and the Bacton gas terminal, are expected to fetch between $600-$800m when the sale is announced next month.
- Permian Resources plans to acquire Earthstone Energy in an all-stock transaction valued at $4.5bn to become the leading US Delaware Basin independent E&P with pro forma production of 300kboe/d, as corporate M&A continues to be driven by operational and financial synergies, expanding inventory and reducing G&A.
Natural Gas US$2.599/mmbtu vs US$2.595/mmbtu yesterday
Uranium UXC US$57.00/lb vs US$56.75/lb yesterday
Bulk:
Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$108.0/t vs US$105.2/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$510.5/t vs US$510.6/t
Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$130.0/t vs US$123.0/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$162.0/t vs US$155.3/t
Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$252.0/t vs US$253.0/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$33,420/t vs US$33,420/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$67,641/t vs US$65,222/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$27,783/t vs US$30,455/t
China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$3,170/t vs US$3,260/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,043/t vs US$1,039/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$310/mtu vs US$310/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$672/t vs US$672/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% 7.6/lb vs US$7.6/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% 31.75/kg vs US$31.75/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$309/t vs US$309/t
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$95.4/t vs US$94.7/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$360.0/t vs US$345.0/t
Battery News
India sees 120% growth in EV sales in Q2 ‘22
- India saw 120% growth in EVs in Q2, driven by a 400% surge in hybrid vehicles.
- The surge in EV adoption was driven by the introduction of new affordable models.
- India is seen as a key market for EVs with Chinese and Western EV makers vying for government funding to build EV and battery facilities there.
Ford recall of Mustang Mach-E under investigation
- Ford has recalled nearly 49,000 Mustang Mach-E vehicles.
- The June 2022 recall was issued because of an issue with high voltage battery main contactors overheating from DC fast-charging, which could result in an immediate loss of propulsion power, increasing the risk of a crash.
- The recall is under investigation by US auto safety regulators as to whether the concern applies to more vehicles.
Company News
Atlantic Lithium* (ALL LN) 21p, Mkt Cap £128m – Len Kolff acquires 3m shares in Atlantic
(Piedmonth can earn into up to 50% of the Ewoyaa lithium project through the expenditure of around 70% of the project capex)
BUY
- Atlantic Lithium report the acquisition of 3m new ESOP (employee stock ownership plan) shares at 30p/s for a total consideration of £900,000.
- The purchase along with other recent director stock buying brings the board’s total stock ownership to 2.96% of the company.
- Len Kolff worked as the acting CEO of Atlantic Lithium following the passing of Vincent Mascolo last year .
- Kolff continues to work, as head of business development and chief geologist, on extending and further defining the lithium-in-spodumene resource at Ewoyaa in Ghana and is a dedicated and critical part of the Atlantic Lithium team.
- Institutional investors like to see management buying and holding stock.
- Keith Muller, Altantic’s CEO, is also incentivised to see the shares go higher and also holds the following stock options:
- 2m @ 50p,
- 2m @ 60p
- 2m @ 70p.
- Atlantic’s recent director purchases should lend confidence to the market and hopefully reward all involved.
- News over the new ‘Green Minerals’ fiscal regime in the Ghana press has unsettled investors and led to a significant decline in Atlantic’s share price.
- We believe settlement of the fiscal agreement between Atlantic and the government of Ghana should be relatively close and we look forward to the issuance of a mining license for the Ewoyaa lithium project over the next two or three months.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad to Atlantic Lithium. Two mining analysts from SP Angel recently visited the Ewoyaa mine site in Ghana and drove onto Takoradi to check the quality of the road to port. Our intrepid analysts also visited the Ministry of Minerals Commission and MIIF, the Ghana Minerals Income Investment Fund.
BHP (BHP LN) 2,192p, £47bn – Lower commodity prices and inflationary pressures impact financial performance
- BHP reports reduced revenues and profits for the year ending 30th June 2023 reflecting “significantly lower prices across iron ore, metallurgical coal, and copper” as well as inflationary pressures on costs.
- Revenue declined by US$11.3 billion (17%) to US$53.8 billion while underlying attributable profits were 37% lower at US$13.4bn (FY 2022 – US$21.3bn).
- Underlying EBITDA declined by 31% to US$28.0bn while EBITDA margins weakened to 54% (2022 – 65%).
- Commenting on the economic outlook for its commodities, BHP says that it expects “population growth, rising living standards, and the infrastructure required for decarbonisation will drive demand for steel, non-ferrous metals and fertilisers”.
- The iron-ore business experienced an 18% decline in prices to US$92.54/t leading to 23% lower EBITDA of US$16.7bn (FY 2022 – US$21.7bn).
- BHP says that, during 2023, it expects China and India to “to lead a 2% recovery in global steel production, following a 4% decline in CY22”.
- Chinese “steel production was running at ~1,080 Mtpa in the first half of CY23, with solid demand from infrastructure, power machinery, autos and shipping, offsetting weakness in new housing starts and construction machinery … [while in India the] … government is targeting 300 Mtpa of steel-making capacity by 2030” compared to around 135mt in 2023.
- BHP’s copper operations experienced price volatility “over the second half of FY23, with two-way fluctuations based on expectations of China’s recovery” with underlying EBITDA declining by 22% to US$6.7bn (FY 2022 -US$8.6bn) despite a 9% increase in metal production to 1.57mt.
- Describing its view of the copper market, the company says that in “the near term, we expect demand to be met by a combination of rising primary and scrap supply. A small surplus or a balanced market is the most likely outcome for the current year, with operational disruptions being a key swing factor”.
- In the longer term, BHP expects “traditional demand (such as home building, electrical equipment and household appliances) is expected to remain solid while the decarbonisation mega-trend is expected to bolster demand. In terms of meeting that demand, we anticipate that the cost curve is likely to steepen as challenges to the development of new resources … progressively increase”.
- BHP anticipates that the copper industry “is likely to enter the final third of this decade with a low inventory buffer, and therefore elevated prices may endure throughout this period”.
- “Metallurgical coal prices moved lower in FY23 as the global energy shock receded, steel production in OECD importing regions declined, and supply conditions improved across multiple jurisdictions”.
- Steady metallurgical coal output of 29mt and a 3% rise in the output of ‘energy coal’ output saw a 22% fall in metallurgical coal prices partially offset by a 9% rise in energy coal prices to produce 47% lower underlying EBITDA of US$5.0bn.
- The company expresses confidence that “Over the longer term, we believe that higher quality metallurgical coals (such as those produced by our BMA assets) will continue to be required in blast furnace steel making for decades, driven by the growth of the steel industry”.
- BHP’s Jansen potash project is reported 26% complete for stage 1 with production targeted for the end of calendar year 2026 with the company saying that it believes “that potash stands to benefit from the intersection of global megatrends: rising population, changing diets and the need for the more sustainable intensification of agriculture on finite arable land. We consider this compelling demand picture, rising geopolitical uncertainty and the maturity of the existing asset base to be an attractive entry opportunity in a lower-risk supply jurisdiction such as Saskatchewan, Canada”.
- Describing the financial results as “strong … [and] … underpinned by reliable production together with capital and cost discipline”, CEO Mike Henry said that “Commodity demand has remained relatively robust in China and India even as developed world economies have slowed substantially. In the near term, China’s trajectory is contingent on the effectiveness of recent policy measures. We expect buoyant growth in India with strong construction activity underpinning an expansion in steelmaking capacity”.
- He also commented on “increased recognition of the importance of critical minerals and strategies across the globe to incentivise investment in supply and demand”.
- Exploration activity is continuing “to advance copper targets in Chile, Ecuador, Serbia, Peru, Canada, Australia and the United States . … [while nickel] … targets were advanced in Canada and Australia. … [and BHP] … continued to progress activity at Ocelot, BHP’s recently identified copper porphyry mineralised system in the Miami-Globe copper district of the United States”.
Conclusion: BHP sees China and India leading a recovery in steel production with India’s Government targeting a more than doubling of its output by 2030.
Gem Diamonds (GEMD LN) 15.5p, Mkt Cap £23m – Diamond production guidance maintained as the Letšeng diamond mine adjusts ore volumes processed
- Gem Diamonds reports that it produced 50,641 carats of diamonds from its Letšeng mine in Lesotho during the 6 months to 30th June (H1 2022 – 51,548 carats) with sales of 52,163 carats (H1 2022 – 50,423 carats) generating US$71.6m revenue (H1 2022 – US$88.9m).
- The company says that it suffered “increasing grid electricity interruptions … [which] … caused a reduction in volumes of ore processed … [and that] … in the latter part of Q2 2023, an operational decision to open crusher gaps and to slow throughput in the processing … [in order to] … mitigate the impact of internal basalt dilution, improve plant stability and large diamond recoveries”.
- These measures are expected to reduce the expected tonnage treated during the year to between 4.9m – 5.1m tonnes however, “Carats recovered and sold remain within original guidance due to improved grade performance”.
- The company’s 2022 annual report indicates that the Letšeng mine is expected to produce between 104-107,000 carats in 2023.
Great Western Mining* (GWMO LN) 0.05p, Mkt Cap £2.6m – CLICK FOR PDF – Update on Mill construction progress
- Great Western provides an update on their JV with Muletown Enterprises, Western Milling, and the mill construction progress.
- GWM notes that the key planning permit for the mill has been approved, but the start-up requires Nevada Division of Environmental Protection consent.
- NDEP is currently suffering from staff shortages, expected to delay finalisation of Western Milling’s permit by ‘at least two months.’
- As a result of NDEP regulations, the final concrete pour for the mill will require a continuous pour.
- Owing to substantial construction work on the Nevada/California border, stimulated by tax incentives offered by Nevada State, Great Western’s access to local contractors at reasonable costs is currently limited.
- The Company is cautious of overpaying for the pour and has subsequently constructed a concrete plant on site to accelerate groundworks.
- This will enable an efficient final pour as and when a contractor is available, currently the Company’s highest priority.
- The mill site currently hosts a jaw crusher, a conveyor belt, a rod mill, hydrocyclones, spirals, generators, water tanks, a shaker table and a near-site laboratory, with the final concrete pour essentially the final key step to processing the numerous Au-Ag-bearing spoil heaps on GWM’s land.
Conclusion: Although frustrating, the delays to permitting for the Western Milling mill are a direct result of staffing shortages at the Nevada State level and not in the Company’s hands. Management is taking prudent and cost-effective provisions to accelerate progress towards production whilst they wait for permitting approval from State officials. The guided production target for before year-end is encouraging. Having witnessed the hive of construction activity first-hand on route to site, it is of no surprise that contractors are in high demand. However, it is reassuring that the Company remains committed to delivering the project on budget and is cautious of overpaying for services.
*SP Angel act as Broker to Great Western Mining, an SP Angel Analyst has visited Great Western’s Nevada claim blocks.
Kore Potash* (KP2 LN) 0.63p, Mkt Cap £23m – New minister of mines pledges support for Kore’s potash projects in the Republic of Congo
- Kore Potash report the receipt of a letter of support from the Ministry of Mines of the RoC in relation to future development of the Kola Potash Project.
- The letter pledges further support for Kore Potash to continue to develop Kola and Dougou projects.
- The letter also:
- Reconfirms title to Kore’s Mining tenements
- Confirms the agreed Mining Convention remains in effect.
- And also encourages Kore’s shareholders to support the company in the development of the projects.
- Kola is seen as a globally significant potash resource which should become increasingly important for nourishing crops as the degradation of soils around the world makes the input of potash and phosphate fertilizers increasingly important to maintain yields and mineral quality.
- The government is aware the development of Kola and then Dougou will contribute significant jobs, taxs and general economic benefits into the region.
- The long-term nature of potash projects means the development of Kola and Dougou should make “a material contribution towards the sustained development of the RoC.
- The Minister of mines has also conveyed a pledge of security reflecting the RoC’s confidence in Kore in the support ongoing negotiations towards the project development and confirms that the Government is fully supportive of our endeavours.
- Kore’s representatives have met with the Ministry of Mines and Pierre Oba, the Minister of State and Minister of Geology and Mining Industry.
- The dialogue is aimed at improving the Ministry’s understanding of the Kola and Dougou potash project to firm up on the fiscal regime to the satisfaction of the ‘Summit Consortium’ who intend to provide royalty and debt financing to cover the full construction cost of Kola and SEPCO Electric Power Construction Corporation who intend to construct Kola on an EPC ‘Engineering, Procurement and Construction’ basis.
- Kola development milestones:
- SEPCO and the Summit Consortium financing partners:
- Site visits to Kola in August / September
- Completion of the engineering design works required to support an EPC contract proposal before end-December.
- EPC Contract offer to be made to the Company during January 2024.
- The financing proposal for the full construction cost of Kola will be provided to the Company by the Summit Consortium within six weeks of EPC terms being finalised.
- PowerChina and SEPCO have already mobilised some personnel to site and plan to ramp up works to be ramped over coming months.
- Kore Potash is backed by Halequin Investments, Oman Investment Authority and SQM (Sociedad Quimica y Minera) a major potash producer.
- Life of mine production schedule includes:
- Production: 400,000tpa using selective solution mining of high grade sylvinite seams.
- MOP production: 4.8mt over 12 year
- Opex: $90.5/MOP FOB Pointe Noire
- Capex: $316m
- Assumes: flat $450/t MOP price
- NPV@10% (post-tax): $275m (on 90% attributable basis).
- Reserves are estimated at:
- 9mt at 35.7% KCl for 3mt KCl contained
- Resource includes:
- Measured and Indicated – 28mt at 29.9% KCl for 8mt KCl contained
- Inferred – 101mt at 23.5% KCl for 24mt KCl contained
Conclusion: Management have been working towards improving the situation in RoC to create confidence within the RoC government to enable Kore to establish a fiscal regime which is acceptable to all parties. Today’s letter indicates new positive momentum in the RoC in support of the Kola and Dougou projects.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Kore Potash
Lucara Diamonds (LUC CN) C$0.39, Mkt Cap C$177m – Another large diamond recovered from Karowe
- Lucara Diamonds’ wholly owned Karowe mine in Botswana has yielded the 4th diamond larger than 300 carats so far this year.
- The Type IIA white gemstone weighs 692.3 carats and, as with the 1,080-carat diamond reported earlier this month, came from ore mined “the EM/PK(S) lithology of the South Lobe” and the company says that these finds strongly support “our expectations for the underground project where the majority of material mined will constitute this phase of kimberlite during the first years of Underground production”.
- Lucara Diamonds confirms that the recovery of the latest diamond is “the 20th diamond larger than 100 carats recovered, during 2023, at Karowe” which, to date, has yielded four diamonds larger than 1,000 carats, including the stone reported earlier this month as well as the 1,109 carat ‘Lesedi La Rona’ diamond in 2015, the 1,758 carat ‘Sewelo’ diamond in 2019, and an 1,174-carat stone in 2021.
Resolute Mining (RSG LN) 17.1p, Mkt Cap £340m – 2023 Production guidance maintained as interim results benefit from increased production at Syama
- Resolute Mining reports production of 176,629oz of gold in the six months to 30th June (H1 -170,903oz) resulting from increased output at Syama helping deliver a 3.7% increase in revenue to US$329.5m (H1 2022 – US$317.7m) and a 29% rise in EBITDA to US$101.4m (H1 2022 – US$78.5m).
- Net income after tax of US$87.7m reversed the loss of US$24.1m in H1 – 2022 reflecting both the improved EBITDA and “unrealised treasury gains related to foreign exchange”.
- All-in-sustaining costs (AISC) of US$1,469/oz were “comparable to H1 2022 ($1,463/oz), and continued to track below the $1,480 per oz guidance, with the successful cost reduction strategies ongoing and expected to continue through H2 2023”.
- Resolute Mining maintains its full year production and cost guidance at 350,000oz at an AISC of US$1,480/oz.
- Net debt “decreased to $17.2 million (31 December 2022: $31.6 million) with cash and bullion at 30 June 2023 of $85.7 million … [with US$25.0m] … repaid on the Group’s term loan facility (outstanding balance $49.9 million), and $5.0 million … repaid on the Revolving Credit Facility (RCF)”.
- The company confirms that its Phase 1 expansion plan at Syama is expected to start commissioning during H1 2025 “bringing Syama annual gold production to over 250,000 oz and reducing costs by up to $200/oz”.
- The US$52m expansion plan aims to modify the “oxide comminution circuit to enable it to process sulphide ore thereby increasing overall sulphide processing capacity at Syama by 60% from 2.4Mtpa to 4.0Mtpa”.
- CEO, Terry Holohan, confirmed that Resolute Mining “remains focused on further cost savings and stability of gold production over the second half of the year … [keeping it] … on track to meet its full year Guidance and longer-term growth plans”.
- Resolute Mining is also assessing a Phase 2 expansion of Syama, including increases to the roasting circuit and expansion of “the Syama underground mine from its’ present nominal 2.4Mtpa (original design 2.1Mtpa), to a nominal 2.8Mtpa, by increasing the mining fleet and ventilation air”.
Conclusion: Expanding production and cost containment at Syama has delivered improved EBITDA and reversed last year’s losses while expansion plans to increase both processing capacity for sulphide ores and increased production from the underground mine are advancing.
Wishbone Gold* (WSBN LN) – 2.1p, Mkt Cap £5.2m – Drilling equipment mobilised to the Cottesloe Project, Paterson Range
See link for recent note: CLICK FOR PDF
- Wishbone gold reports that it has mobilised drilling rigs and ancillary equipment to its Cottesloe exploration project in the Paterson region of WA.
- The drilling will test the previously reported targets identified by geochemical, gravity and magnetic exploration which according to a company announcement in July had indicated a substantial conductive anomaly.
- The earlier exploration showed “Base metal anomalies … extending up to 34m as reported on the 17 July 2023”.
- Following completion of the work programme at Cottesloe, Wishbone Gold plans to move the equipment to its Red Setter project, located 35km north of Cottesloe “and follow up to find the source of the mineralisation from last year’s drill program”.
*SP Angel acts as a Broker for Wishbone Gold
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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
| Sources of commodity prices | |
| Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver | BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London) |
| Gold ETFs, Steel | Bloomberg |
| Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt | LME |
| Oil Brent | ICE |
| Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore | NYMEX |
| Thermal Coal | Bloomberg OTC Composite |
| Coking Coal | SSY |
| RRE | Steelhome |
| Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite | Asian Metal |
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