Copper edges higher whilst Chinese traders flip short
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
80 Mile Plc* (80M LN) – 80 Mile Plc regains Disko-Nuussuaq Project in Greenland from KoBold metals for Royalty & Sale of stake in Metals One Plc
Asiamet Resources (ARS LN) – Company presentation on the BKM copper project, Indonesia
Endeavour Mining (EDV LN) – $500m senior notes refinancing
Many Peaks Minerals (MPK AU) – Gold assay results from Ferké, Côte d’Ivoire
Metals One (MET1 LN) – Adding to exploration landholding in Nevada’s Carlin Trend
Peak Rare Earths (PEK AU)- Shenghe Resources (Ganzhou Chenguang Rare Earths New Material) agrees to acquire Peak Rare Earths for US$100m
Rio Tinto (RIO LN) – Partnership with Codelco to advance Maricunga lithium project
Copper ($9,500/t) edges higher whilst Chinese traders flip short
- Copper prices have stayed resilient, despite further disappointing data from the Chinese housing market.
- Shanghai Futures Exchange has reported net-short positions at their highest since March 20th, when copper prices hit their ytd peaks.
- Chinese industrial output was strong, whilst consumption disappointed in data released overnight, with continued pressure in the property sector.
- Reuters reports investor positioning and market open interest on the CME have dropped significantly, with funds in the US net long.
- CME trading activity is down 35%yoy over the period, as traders reduce exposure on heightened volatility.
- CME fund short positions have fallen to their lowest levels since November 2022.
- Funds rotate into aluminium from copper on volatility in US premiums and potential tariff disruption
- The result of the Trump Administration Section 232 investigation into U.S. imports.
Economics
US – Two Fed policymakers including New York Fed head John Williams suggested the central bank may need to wait to September before lowering rates amid uncertain economic outlook.
- “It’s not going to be that in June we’re going to understand what’s happening here, or in July,” Willimas said on Monday.
- “It’s going to be a process of collecting data, getting a better picture, and watching things as they develop.”
- Raphael Bostic, Atlanta Fed President (non voting), joined Williams expressing doubts over a cut in coming meetings.
- Markets are pricing in less than a 10% chance for a cut at the next meeting in June and expect two 25bp reductions by year end.
China – Lenders lower their prime lending rates following a cut in reverse repo rate earlier this month.
- 1y and 5y prime lending rates were both cut by 10bp to 3.0% and 3.5%, respectively, in line with market estimates.
- This is the first cut since October last year.
- 1y prime rate is used as a benchmark for new and outstanding loans while 5y rate is seen as a reference for mortgages.
Japan – The BOJ is holding meetings with banks, brokers and life insurers in a series of meetings this week discussing plans for a potential reduction in its bond purchases programme.
- Expectations are that the central bank will update markets on their plans at a board meeting that concludes on June 17.
- The BOJ holds JPY 577tn in sovereign bonds as of end of last month, down only 2.2% compared to July 2024.
- Proposals range from reducing bond buying to zero to keeping monthly purchases at JPY 3tn.
- Long term rates have been rising lately with 20y bonds trading at their lowest since 2000 while 40y debt is at its record lows.
- Markets are growing increasingly worried over potential demand for Japanese debt after the weakest take up of local bonds seen in more than a decade in a recent bond auction.
Australia – The central bank cuts rates by 25bp to 3.85% for a second time this year, in line with expectations.
- The RBA cited rising trade related uncertainty while forecasting weaker economic growth, slower inflation and slightly higher unemployment in its quarterly projections updated.
- The currency and bond yields pulled back on the news.
- Markets are now assigning a two thirds chance for a third cut later this year.
US/Russia – Russia said it is “ready to work” with Kyiv on a memorandum to frame future talks that could include a possible ceasefire “for a certain amount of time” following a phone call between Trump and Putin.
- Russia reiterated that the main objective remains “to eliminate the root causes of this crisis” suggesting that main Putin demands remain unchanged.
- Trump said that Russia and Ukraine will “immediately” begin negotiations on preparations for peace talks.
| Dow Jones Industrials | +0.32% | at | 42,792 | |
| Nikkei 225 | +0.04% | at | 37,514 | |
| HK Hang Seng | +1.49% | at | 23,677 | |
| Shanghai Composite | +0.38% | at | 3,380 | |
| US 10 Year Yield (bp change) | -7.0 | at | 4.45 |
Currencies
US$1.121/eur vs 1.124/eur previous. Yen 145.80/$ vs 144.89/$ previous. SAr 18.080/$ vs 17.982/$ previous. US$1.328/gbp vs $1.334/gbp previous.
US$0.642/aud vs 0.643/aud previous. CNY 7.210/$ vs 7.213/$ previous.
Dollar Index 101.04 vs 100.37 previous.
Precious metals:
Gold US$3,222/oz vs US$3,230/oz previous
Gold ETFs 88.7moz vs 88.7moz previous
Platinum US$1,009/oz vs US$988/oz previous
Palladium US$979/oz vs US$973/oz previous
Silver US$32.4/oz vs US$32.6/oz previous
Rhodium US$5,500/oz vs US$5,425/oz previous
Base metals:
Copper US$9,500/t vs US$9,505/t previous
Aluminium US$2,437/t vs US$2,462/t previous
Nickel US$15,373/t vs US$15,544/t previous
Zinc US$2,673/t vs US$2,691/t previous
Lead US$1,972/t vs US$1,996/t previous
Tin US$32,833t vs US$32,726/t previous
Energy:
Oil US$65.1/bbl vs US$65.1/bbl previous
Natural Gas €35.6/MWh vs €35.1/MWh previous
Uranium Futures $71.6/lb vs $71.6/lb previous
Bulk:
Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$99.5/t vs US$100.8/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$469.5/t vs US$469.5/t
HCC FOB Australia US$189.5/t vs US$190.0/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$103.0/t vs US$102.5/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$33,251/t vs US$33,700/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$60,086/t vs US$60,207/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$8,601/t vs US$8,768/t
China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$655/t vs US$685/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$995/t vs US$1,113/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$397/mtu vs US$388/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$425/t vs US$430/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.2/lb vs US$5.2/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.4/kg vs US$24.4/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$287/t vs US$287/t
Global Rutile Spot Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,465/t vs US$1,513/t
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$365/t vs US$357.5/t
Germanium China 99.99% US$2,825.0/kg vs US$2,825.0/kg
China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg
Battery News
Honda to scale back EV investment to focus on hybrid vehicles
- The Japanese automaker has decided to scale back its investments in EVs due to slowing demand.
- Instead, the automaker will switch its focus to meeting the growing demand for hybrids.
- “Based on the current market slowdown, we expect EV sales in 2030 to fall below the 30% that we previously targeted,” CEO Toshihiro Mibe said, adding battery-powered cars might make up only around 20% of the company’s sales by then.
- Honda said it expects to sell 2.2m to 2.3m hybrid vehicles by 2030, launching 13 next-gen hybrid models by 2027.
- Honda still expects battery and fuel-cell-powered vehicles to account for 100% of their vehicle sales by 2040.
Company News
80 Mile Plc* (80M LN) – 0.28p, Mkt cap £11m – 80 Mile Plc regains Disko-Nuussuaq Project in Greenland from KoBold metals for Royalty & Sale of stake in Metals One Plc
- 80 Mile plc has agreed to reacquire KoBold’s 49% stake in the Disko-Nuussuaq nickel-copper-cobalt project in Greenland.
- KoBold who spent US$ 13.4m on new exploration on Disko for data collection will receive a 2% NSR ‘net smelter royalty’.
-
- “80 Mile will also take ownership of approximately £750,000 of equipment and infrastructure stationed in Greenland purchased by Kobold under the jv.”
- The exploration program was set out by some of the world’s best respected geologists for the 2022 field program including advanced geophysics and surface sampling.
- It is not known if KoBold identified drill targets from this work.
- 80 Mile management “remains confident of the potential of the Disko-Nuussuaq project and in its ability to now attract a partner that will focus on advance the asset to drilling”
-
- “Key licenses covering priority target areas currently enjoy expenditure credits and are in good standing with the Government of Greenland.”
- Metals One share sale: 80 Mile has also sold 6.25m shares in Metals One Plc for £1.97m
- Management remain committed to Hydrogen Valley, the biofuels and chemicals plant in Italy in which it holds 24% with options to go to 100%.
Conclusion: KoBold Metals are very busy with exploration and asset acquisition in Zambia and the DRC where it plans to spend US$1bn on its recently acquired 75% stake in the Manono lithium deposit. 80 Mile’s consolidation of the Disko project looks like the best way to take the project forward.
*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to 80 Mile Plc (formerly Bluejay Mining). The analyst has visited Dundas in Greenland.
Asiamet Resources (ARS LN) – 0.9p, mkt cap £27m – Company presentation on the BKM copper project, Indonesia
- Asiamet Resources has published a presentation on its optimised feasibility study for its BKM Copper Project in Kalimantan, Indonesia.
- The presentation, available on www.asiametresources.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/250519-Asiamet-Optimised-Feasibility-Study-Presentation-May-2025.pdf describes a Stage 1 project delivering ~10,000tpa of copper cathode from the processing of a total of 28.5mt of ore over 12.8 years.
- Initial capital investment of US$178m and an average LOM operating cash cost of US$1.79/lb of copper production are expected to generate an after-tax NPV8% of US$122.4m and IRR of 17.7% with a 4.5-year payback.
- The company’s presentation describes a “Capital intensity of $17,492/t (1) well below peer median of $21,174/t”.
- The study uses a long-term copper price of US$4.30/lb (~US$9,500/t which is in line with the current price) with a cathode premium of US$40/t.
- Sensitivity analysis tabulated in the presentation shows that at a copper price of US$5.00/lb (~US$11,000/t) the post-tax NPV8% rises by around 65% to US$202m with the IRR increasing to 22.9% and payback reducing to 3.8 years.
- In an appendix to the presentation Asiamet Resources summarises the improvements delivered by the optimised development plan compared to the original 2023 study including:
-
- Mine life increased to 12.8 years from 9.2 years
- Capital cost reduced to US$178.4m compared to US$235.4m
- Cash cost reduced to US$1.79/lb (previously US$1.91/lb)
- Reduced LOM mining volumes of 48.5mt at an overall waste:ore ratio of 0.77:1 (previously 90.9mt at an overall ratio of 1.37:1).
- The base case of the study assumes copper recovery of ~60% and the company will test the application of “new heap leach technologies for improving copper recovery … once in production”.
- Asiamet Resources also confirms that it is in “Preliminary discussions with multiple International and Indonesian banks” to fund the project development via “a balanced mix of debt and equity”.
- The presentation illustrates a financing and project development timetable delivering initial copper production in Q1 2028.
Conclusion: We look forward to a formal decision to proceed with the project and news of the progress of the project financing.
Endeavour Mining (EDV LN) 2,076p, Mkt Cap £5.1bn – $500m senior notes refinancing
- The Company launched an offer to purchase all of $500m 5.0% Senior Notes due 2026.
- The offer is to acquire notes at par and is expiring on May 28.
- The purchase is expected to be funded with proceeds of new US$ denominated senior notes.
- New notes are $500m fixed rate senior notes due 2030.
Many Peaks Minerals (MPK AU) – A$0.6, Mkt cap A$58m – Gold assay results from Ferké, Côte d’Ivoire
- Many Peaks, who hold the Ferké gold project in Côte d’Ivoire, report drill results.
- The Company has received assays from 870m of its 2,306m drilling programme at the Ouarigue South prospect.
- Highlights include:
-
- FNDC028: 201m at 1.12g/t Au
- FNDC030: 72m at 2.11g/t Au from 234m
- FNDC031: 79m at 1.33g/t Au from 29m
- FNDC032: ‘intersects a 217m interval of felsic intrusion, which potentially extends mineralisation a further 188m down-dip of FNDC031.’
- The programme included several ‘scissor’ holes to define fault and vein orientations.
- Management notes drilling has delivered ‘substantial extensions to gold mineralisation from drilling in multiple orientations, with hole FNDC032 visually extending the favourable Felsic intrusion body an additional 188m down-dip of the deepest hole drilled to date.’
- Company notes increasing gold grades and volume with depth and is exploring conceptual pit depths and bulk tonnage potential.
- Holes FNDC028 and FNDC0029 were intended to explore the continuity of a high-grade shoot intersected in FNDC021, which had returned 25m at 14.8g/t Au.
- Going forward, Many Peaks will look to conduct an additional 4,000m of drilling with a second diamond rig, alongside a 6,000m RC programme.
Metals One (MET1 LN) 0.46p, Mkt Cap £36m – Adding to exploration landholding in Nevada’s Carlin Trend
- Metals One reports that it has staked an additional 1,980 acres (~801 hectares) of exploration claims contiguous with the recently announced Swales Gold property in the Carlin Gold belt of Nevada increasing its total holding around 2.5x to approximately 2,780 acres (~1,125 hectares).
- Today’s announcement describes the geological setting of the project area which “is underlain by the upper plate of the Roberts Mountains thrust with windows of the lower plate – the ideal host rocks for a Carlin type gold deposit – similar to that encountered at Nevada Gold Mines’ Carlin Complex”.
- A map included in the announcement shows the Swales project located around 15 miles northeast of the major Gold Quarry gold mine and a similar distance northwest of the town of Elko.
- Earlier this month, the company announced a conditional agreement to acquire the core 40 unpatented mining claims covering ~800 acres (around 32 hectares) on the Swales Gold Property.
- The company explains that “Small gold anomalies occur in the upper plate rocks at Swales Mountain. This suggests the possibility of more extensive deposits in the lower Roberts Mountains thrust where it lies concealed by gravels or in the broken rock within the upper Roberts Mountains thrust” and that the area hosts “numerous historical workings consisting of small underground workings, mine dumps and prospect pits that dig along structures”.
- MetalsOne confirms that it will expand its Phase 1 exploration programme which includes, “relocating and reassessing historical mine workings and incorporating preliminary geophysical surveys designed to better delineate exploration targets across the substantially increased project area”.
- Chairman, Craig Moulton, explained that the “expanded claim area considerably increases exposure to the highly prospective geological setting within Nevada’s prolific Carlin Trend which includes the Carlin Complex, the largest gold-producing complex in the world.”.
Conclusion: Expansion of the Swales property illustrates MetalsOne’s enthusiasm for the exploration potential of the area – future exploration will verify whether it hosts a viable gold deposit.
Peak Rare Earths (PEK AU)- A$0.34, Mkt cap A$118m – Shenghe Resources (Ganzhou Chenguang Rare Earths New Material agrees to acquire Peak Rare Earths for US$100m
- Ganzhou Chenguang Rare Earths New Material, a subsidiary of Shenghe Resources has agreed to pay A$158m (US$100m) for Peak Rare Earths
- Peak has the Ngualla Rare Earth Project in Tanzania on which it previously agreed a 50% stake along with a 100% offtake agreement with Shenghe..
- Shenghe currently holds 19.9% of Peak and is offering US$0.24/s (A$0.37/s) representing a 199% premium on the last closing price for Peak shares.
- The deal is subject to there being no competing offers and remains conditional on the completion of due diligence and regulatory approvals from Australian (FRIB) and Tanzanian authorities.
- China has long had close ties with China. President Julius Nyerere experimented with a socialist program called Ujamaa receiving more than half China’s foreign aid to Africa in 1964.
- While this differs from Chinese communism the two nations appear to have maintained close relations.
- Shenghe is looking to replace REE concentrates from Mountain Pass in the US which has been a significant supplier.
- Trump Tariffs have rendered the export of REE concentrates from the US to China uneconomic hence the move on Peak.
Conclusion: While the west lacks significant processing capacity for REE concentrates new processing technologies, in development, may change the game. Mkango*, Rainbow Rare Earths and Ionic are all developing new technologies for the processing of rare earths in the west with Mkango and Ionic processing recycled materials. Lindian is also developing the Kangankunde REE hard-rock project in Malawi on which it has a US$50m offtake and funding package with Gerald Metals.
Rio Tinto (RIO LN) – 4,646p, Mkt cap £75bn – Partnership with Codelco to advance Maricunga lithium project
- Rio Tinto has entered an agreement with Codelco to acquire a 49.99% interest in Salar de Maricunga.
- Rio will invest $900m, broken down into:
-
- $350m of initial funding for resource analysis and feasibility studies to FID,
- $500m towards construction costs
- $50m into the Subsidiary if the JV achieves its aim of delivering first lithium by end of 2030.
- Further capital requirements will be funded on an ownership basis.
- Rio is already in JV with Codelco with copper assets in Chile.
- Codelco bought the Maricunga lithium project from Lithium Power International for US$254m, with an MRE of 1.905kt LCE contained.
- The previous DFS outlined a 15.2ktpa operation over a 20 year LOM, with test work showing potential for battery-grade purity.
Conclusion: The investment highlights Rio’s continued counter-cyclical investment in the lithium sector, following the $6.7bn acquisition of Arcadium last year. We note Rio’s continued focus on brine projects development, having recently approved FID on Rincon. Rio is confident in their ability to leverage DLE to enhance brine assets.
LSE Group Starmine awards for 2024 commodity forecasting:
No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024
No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024
Analysts
John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484
Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474
Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476
Sales
Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472
Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534
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Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471
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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
| Sources of commodity prices | |
| Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver | BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London) |
| Gold ETFs, Steel | Bloomberg |
| Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt | LME |
| Oil Brent | ICE |
| Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore | NYMEX |
| Thermal Coal | Bloomberg OTC Composite |
| Coking Coal | SSY |
| RRE | Steelhome |
| Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, Rutile | Asian Metal |
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