SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Tuesday 1st July 2025

Copper prices look set to break $10,000/t on better Chinese IP data, tariff expectations and tight concentrate market

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Adriatic Metals (ADT LN) – Commercial production at Vareš

Beowulf Mining* (BEM LN)- BUY– GAMP site reserved in Finland

Eurasia Mining (EUA LN) – Annual results

Great Western Mining* (GWMO LN) – Sampling results as drilling set to star this quarter

Santana Minerals (SMI AU) – Bendigo-Ophir gold PFS

Kavango Resources* (KAV LN) – Purebond commits $5m to fundraising associated with forthcoming listing on the Victoria Falls Stock Exchange in Zimbabwe

Mkango Resources* (MKA LN) BUY– Nonbinding LOI exclusivity period for a SPAC merger extended to 3 July

Versarien* (VRS LN) – Interim results

Xtract Resources (XTR LN) – Completion of initial phase of drilling delivers 51% ownership threshold at the Silverking project, Zambia

Zanaga Iron Ore (ZIOC LN) – 2024 results highlight updated Feasibility Study and corporate restructuring

Copper ($9,955/t) – prices look set to break $10,000/t on better Chinese IP data, a delay to Section 232 investigation draws more physical copper into US lifting

  • Copper rose overnight surprisingly improved Chinese IP data, tariff expectations and tight concentrate market
  • The Caixin PMI index climbing t 50.4 from 48.3 (49.3 exp).
  • New optimism across Asia over the regions ability to withstand the cost of Trump tariffs is lifting Asian markets
  • Fresh consumer buying for July lifted turnover and spreads
  • New confidence across Asia is likely to increase copper demand with new EVs in China using twice as much copper as expected due to their increasing size.
  • AI datacentres are forcing nations to bolster grid systems to support new power demand while the addition of EV charging points are also creating new power demand.
  • Copper mine production is expected to grow at 2.2% this year on top of 1.6% last year with around 27mt of refined copper output expected for 2025.
  • Copper has been driven to three-month highs on the back of positioning ahead of Trump’s expected Section 232 inquest into America’s copper imports.
  • This has seen metal move from Asia to the US, to take advantage of a cross-Atlantic arbitrage opportunity.
  • Additionally, concentrate supplies have been hit by various supply shocks and a mass expansion rollout of Chinese smelter capacity.
  • Elsewhere, Chile boosted output to its highest this year in May, up 9.4% yoy. (Bloomberg).

Gold ($3,340/oz) rallies as focus shifts back to tariffs and fiscal profligacy concerns

  • Gold prices have rallied from last week’s sell-down, with the metal bouncing from $3,265/oz/.
  • ETFs have been adding to holdings, boosting positions by 238koz over the past 24 hours for gold.
  • Net purchases rose to 7.8moz this year but holdings remain well below 2020 and 2022 levels.
  • Should ETF buying pick up materially, then the gold rally, which has primarily been driven by Central Bank buying, may well extend past recent record highs.
  • The dollar continues to weaken, with US treasury yields sliding below 4.2% for the first time since April.
  • Uncertainty persists over US tariffs, with Bessent warning yesterday that a return to April 2nd levels could be made.
  • Additionally, focus on the US labour market may be driving gold buying, with increasing signs of weakness from various labour reports. NFP due Thursday currently guiding at 120k.
  • Elsewhere, Zijin is set to IPO its gold assets, with strong appetite potentially providing a boost to the wider gold mining sector.

Trade IG: Trading Experiences with Angeline Ong: Talk starts 2:16 into the video: 

Vox Markets: Mining Matters: https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/articles/mining-matters-sp-angel-s-john-meyer-on-commodities-capital-and-change-7c82c6d/

Dow Jones Industrials +0.63% at 44,095
Nikkei 225 -1.24% at 39,986
HK Hang Seng -0.87% at 24,072
Shanghai Composite +0.39% at 3,458
US 10 Year Yield (bp change) -3.3 at 4.19

Currencies

US$1.1785/eur vs 1.1715/eur previous. Yen 143.31/$ vs 144.50/$. SAr 17.621/$ vs 17.850/$. $1.376/gbp vs $1.374/gbp. 0.658/aud vs 0.655/aud. CNY 7.162/$ vs 7.169/$

Dollar Index 96.70 vs 97.23 previous

Economics

US – The Senate continues to debate on the proposed $3.3tn tax and spending bill with eight major Republican holdouts and only three to spare.

  • Senators are expected to vote on a series of amendments that risks dividing the party further.
  • S&P and Nasdaq futures are a little off trading 0.2% down after closing 0.5% higher on Monday

Trump suggested the US government should check any state subsidies given to businesses run by Elon Musk.

  • “Elon may get more subsidy than any human being in history, by far, and, without subsidies, Elon would probably have to close up shop and head back to South Africa,” Trump wrote on his platform on Tuesday.
  • Earlier Musk criticised the “Big, Beautiful Bill” urging congressmen to vote down “the biggest debt increase in history”.
  • Tesla is trading 5% down pre market today.

China –Private manufacturing sector gauge reported a surprising expansion in June with both output and new orders posting an increase.

  • US/China agreed a temporary truce earlier in May for 90 days helping the sentiment.
  • A pick up may relate to front loading of orders ahead of new truce end deadline in mid August.
  • Caixin Manufacutirng PMI (Jun/May/Est): 50.4/48.3/49.3
  • Chinese industrial companies’ profits fell 9.1% yoy in May falling 1.1% in the first five months of the year (NBS)

Trade talks reported to be making good progress with agreement on how to implement the trade framework.

  • Rare earth exports have been restarted to the US.
  • The US is also lifting restrictions on China.

The EU is willing to accept a 10% universal tariff but is aiming to negotiate lower levies for its key sectors like pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors and commercial aircraft.

  • EU officials are also lobbying for quotas and exemptions to lower 25% tariff on autos and car parts as well as its 50% tariff on steel and aluminium.
  • The EU has until July 9 to agree a trade deal with the US with Washington threatening to reset rates to 50% post then.

Eurozone – Inflation rate held largely steady in June helped by a drop in energy costs.

  • Inflation expectations over the next 12 months and a three years period have also been slowing.
  • Inflation in services ticked up 0.1pp to 3.3% but is running at a slower pace compared to the start of the year (~4.0%).
  • The ECB is set to meet in three weeks and is widely expected to keep rates unchanged after cutting rates eight times since June 2024 to 2%.
  • CPI (%mom, Jun/May/Est): 0.3/0.0/0.3
  • CPI (%yoy, Jun/May/Est): 2.0/1.9/2.0
  • Core CPI (%yoy, Jun/May/Est): 2.3/2.3/2.3

UK – Property prices dropped unexpectedly in June marking the strongest drop since January 2023. (Nationwide)

  • Average prices were down 0.8%mom coming in at ~£272k.
  • Annual growth rate slowed to 2.1%, down from 3.5% in the previous month.
  • Weaker prices are attributed to an effect of a hike in stamp duty at the start of April and elevated borrowing costs.
  • The latter is likely to come down soon with markets assigning a 75% chance of the BOE rate cut from current 4.25% as early as next month.

Precious metals:         

Gold US$3,336/oz vs US$3,285/oz previous

Gold ETFs 90.6moz vs 90.4moz previous

Platinum US$1,338/oz vs US$1,382/oz previous

Palladium US$1,106/oz vs US$1,139/oz previous

Silver US$36.2/oz vs US$36.2/oz previous

Rhodium US$5,475/oz vs US$5,450/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$9,962/t vs US$9,887/t previous

Aluminium US$2,609/t vs US$2,575/t previous

Nickel US$15,225/t vs US$15,160/t previous

Zinc US$2,729/t vs US$2,765/t previous

Lead US$2,045/t vs US$2,036/t previous

Tin US$33,795/t vs US$33,650/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$66.8/bbl vs US$68.2/bbl previous

Natural Gas €32.9/MWh vs €33.0/MWh previous

  • Shell announced that the first cargo of liquefied natural gas has left the LNG Canada facility on the west coast of Canada, which will export LNG from two processing trains with total capacity of 14mtpa as part of Phase 1.

Uranium Futures $78.8/lb vs $78.5/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (cfr Dalian) US$99.2/t vs US$99.2/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$458.9/t vs US$459.0/t

HCC FOB Australia US$175.5/t vs US$178.3/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$111.3/t vs US$106.9/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$33,335/t vs US$33,335/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$62,062/t vs US$62,077/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$8,308/t vs US$8,356/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$625/t vs US$610/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$995/t vs US$995/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$428/mtu vs US$428/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$410/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.0/lb vs US$5.0/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.3/kg vs US$24.3/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$290/t vs US$289/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,096/t vs US$1,095/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$362.5/t vs US$362.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$2,925.0/kg vs US$2,925.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg

EV & Battery News

Chinese automakers see record hybrid market share in Europe

  • Chinese automakers have continued to expand their presence in European markets and now have their largest share ever of Europe’s hybrid-car market, over 9%, and the biggest share of the EV market in 10 months, also just over 9%.
  • These automakers have been able to leverage their superior battery technology and affordability which has promoted the significant adoption of Chinese EVs.
  • Despite European Union tariffs on Chinese-made EVs introduced last year, sales have recovered to mid-2024 levels.
  • Many Chinese automakers have turned their attention to hybrid-electric vehicles which aren’t affected by the same EU duties.
  • In May, Chinese brands accounted 12% of new plug-in hybrid sales and 7% of mild hybrids, up from 1% in May 2024.
  • BYD has seen a +158% increase in sales yoy (7,111 sales in May 2025), with Xpeng seeing a +348% yoy increase (1,586 sales in May 2025)
  • MG, which is now Chinese owned saw sales in Europe fall 40% yoy as it has been slow to move its focus to hybrids following the 45% tariff introduced last year.

Company News

Overnight Change Weekly Change Overnight Change Weekly Change
BHP -0.5% 0.2% Freeport-McMoRan -1.2% 5.9%
Rio Tinto -0.9% 1.1% Vale -0.3% 5.8%
Glencore 1.7% 4.9% Newmont Mining 2.6% -2.0%
Anglo American 1.7% 6.4% Fortescue 0.7% 1.0%
Antofagasta 2.7% 7.1% Teck Resources -0.9% 4.9%

Adriatic Metals (ADT LN) 272.5p, Mkt Cap £933m – Commercial production at Vareš

  • Adriatic Metals has declared ‘commercial production’ at its Vareš Silver Operation in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
  • The transition into formal production is based on “maintaining plant throughput levels of 75% over 14 days, including 80% over 7 days, and reaching 2,000tpd (90%) in late June.
  • The company says that it has resolved “previous constraints related to tailings management … [explaining that] …. Construction of the Veovača Tailings Storage Facility (TSF) was completed in March, with initial tailings deposition commencing on 2 April. A dedicated access road linking the Vareš Processing Plant to the TSF was completed and has been operational over the past month”.
  • Today’s announcement also confirms that “Mining activities at Rupice are progressing well, with approximately 900m of underground development completed in Q2 (a quarterly record). The plant is performing consistently, and key necessary permits, equipment, and personnel are in place to maintain stable production”.
  • Managing Director / CEO, Laura Tyler, said that “the achievement of commercial production at the Vareš Silver Operation … [marks] … a significant milestone that demonstrates our ability to operate at production levels that support strong cash generation”.
  • She thanked the team for its “unwavering commitment and effort in achieving this important goal”.

Beowulf Mining* (BEM LN) 11p, Mkt cap £6.6m– GAMP site reserved in Finland  

BUY – 182p NAV

  • Beowulf reports its subsidiary Grafintec has secured a site reservation with the City of Kotka in southern Finland.
  • The 13 hectare site is situated in the Keltakallio industrial area and will host the Company’s GAMP project.
  • The agreement provides a 12-month reservation period, with possibility to extend.
  • Grafintec will work alongside the City of Kotka to progress its ESIA.
  • Easpring is building a cathode active material plant on a neighbouring site.
  • The Keltakallio industrial zone covers 260 hectares and has direct access to Finland’s largest container port, enabling streamlined transport of both finished product and feedstock.
  • The site also offers access to renewable energy and water, supporting the green credentials of the Plant.

Conclusion: The securing of a site for the GAMP project is another key milestone in the project’s development. The area is well endowed with battery supply chain initiatives, with Cursor aiming to develop the Power Coast battery cluster initiative. Given the area already hosts cathode plants currently in construction, we would expect the GAMP ESIA process to be well supported by the new site’s location and local authorities.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Beowulf Mining, An SP Angel analyst recently visited Kallak

Eurasia Mining (EUA LN) 4.3p, Mkt Cap £123m – Annual results

  • PGM producer Eurasia reports financial results for period to 31st December 2024.
  • Company reported cash position of £3.7m, debt of £0.3m.
  • Loss for the year reported at £8.6m vs £6.7m in 2023, primarily resulting from revaluation of assets on FX movements.
  • Eurasia completed a $4m financing in March 2025 and holds a trade finance facility for short-term capital.
  • Operationally, Eurasia is aiming to begin starter pits at Monchetundra with West Nittis and Loipishnune, targeting 130kozpa production before ramping up to 1,000kozpa output at full capacity.
  • Company continues discussions for sale of Russian assets, including West Kytlim, Monchetrundra and NKT.

Great Western Mining* (GWMO LN) 1p, Mkt Cap £1.6m – Sampling results as drilling set to star this quarter

  • Great Western reports further results from the West Huntoon claims package in Nevada.
  • Today, sampling results at the Crowne Pointe granite area has yielded highlights of:
    • 455g/t Ag and 1.1g/t Au (south end of Crowne Point)
    • 2.2g/t Au, 34g/t Ag, 1.58% Cu (far northern end)
    • 0.1-0.2g/t Au and 5-20g/t Ag samples to the southern tip
    • Seven anomalous copper samples yielding 0.18-0.31% Cu, with one returning 0.68% Cu
  • The Company sees the West Hunton project as holding high prospectivity for a large-scale copper porphyry system.
  • Great Western is set to begin drilling on the high ground at West Huntoon with a five-hole programme, each at 200m depths.
  • Initial drilling is set to explore copper potential at depth and test precious metal potential.

Conclusion: GWM’s exploration team notes that these samples, which show repeated occurrences of high-grade silver and gold values in the south of the Crowne Point granite system, alongside polymetallic mineralisation outside of the granite, support their thesis that West Huntoon hosts a larger and complex mineralised system. Drilling is set to begin this quarter over five 200m holes which is aimed to test the potential for copper and precious metals at depth on the West Huntoon licence.

*SP Angel act as Broker to Great Western Mining, an SP Angel Analyst has visited Great Western’s Nevada claim blocks.

Santana Minerals (SMI AU) A$0.54, Mkt Cap A$383m – Bendigo-Ophir gold PFS

  • Santana, who are developing the Bendigo-Ophir gold project in New Zealand, report results from the updated PFS.
  • Project
    • 1.54moz Indicated resource
    • 1.2mtpa plant with 93.2% recoveries.
    • 13-year open pit operation
    • Underground mining from year 7-13
    • Average LOM mill feed grade of 2.54g/t Au, producing 1,248koz Au over 14 years.
  • Economics
    • Initial CAPEX: A$277m and total CAPEX of $487m.
    • AISC of A$1,950/oz.(USD:AUD of 0.63)
    • NPV6.5 of A$780m, IRR of 39% at A$3,500/oz Au.
    • NPV6.5 of A$1,521m, IRR of 65% at A$4,950/oz Au.

Kavango Resources* (KAV LN) 1.14p, Mkt Cap £356m – Purebond commits $5m to fundraising associated with forthcoming listing on the Victoria Falls Stock Exchange in Zimbabwe

  • Kavango have exercised their option to acquire 100% of the Nara Gold Project in Zimbabwe.
  • Purebond Limited have committed to subscription of at least US$5m as part of the fundraise associated with the Company’s forthcoming listing on the Victoria Falls Stock Exchange.
  • Nara is also in the Filabusi Greenstone Belt along from the four Hillside projects where management is targeting ore production of 250t per day over the next 12 months.
  • This could translate into an approximate $15-20m in gold sales assuming an average grade of 2.55g/t, depending on work schedules and recovery rates etc….
  • Royalty: 5% to the government of Zimbabwe.
  • Payment: 60% in US dollars, 40% in Zimbabwe dollars. Note there is a significant difference between the official and unofficial Zim dollar rate.
  • Costs: it is currently difficult to estimate the cost of gold mining at Bills Luck, Hillside though management state the operation should be cash flow positive shortly after commissioning.
  • Everjoy Ngomamiti was recently appointed as General Manager from Barrick Mining bringing much needed professional mining expertise into the group.
  • Video introducing Everjoy Ngomamiti:

    *Two SP Angel Analysts recently visited Kavango’s Hillside mines and licenses in Zimbabwe. An SP Angel analyst holds shares in Kavango

Mkango Resources* (MKA LN) 15.5p, Mkt Cap £52m – Non binding LOI exclusivity period for a SPAC merger extended to 3 July

BUY

  • Mkango have agreed to extend the exclusivity period for a non binding LOI to enter into a definitive business combination agreement with Crown PropTech Acquisitions.
  • New date is set for 3 July 2025, an extension from 30 June previously.
  • The transaction relates to a potential listing of Songwe Hill and Pulawy Separation Plant parts of the business on NASDAQ through a SPAC merger.
  • Mkango is set to retain a majority interest in the listed Company with RE recycling business excluded from the transaction.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Mkango Resources

Versarien* (VRS LN) 0.017p, Mkt Cap £1.06m – Interim results

  • Versarien report interim results for the.
  • Sales rose to £1.47m from £1.34m for the six-months to end-March
  • Graphene sales slipped to £0.21m vs £0.28m
  • Grant income increased to £0.23m vs £0.20m
  • Adjusted EBITDA* saw a loss of -£0.77m vs £0.67m
  • Loss before tax reduced slightly to £1.49m vs £1.61m
  • Cash at bank: £0.85m vs as at 31 March 2025 vs£0.15m at end-September
  • €804,000 of grant has been secured from the Madrid government to continue developing GnanoCaps technology.
  • £611,000 from sale of CVD ‘chemical vapour deposition’ graphene plant and equipment to MCK Tech Co. Ltd, together with an exclusive licence agreement for the use of five patents.
  • Balfour Beatty Highways: Working with Balfour Beatty Highways business to co-develop a range of UK supplied, low-carbon, graphene-infused 3D printable mortars designed for civil construction.
  • CementeneTM:  Commissioned concrete and mortar specimen testing equipment for CementeneTM development and for 3D Construction Printing.
  • Construction Innovation Programme: High Growth AI Accelerator for Innovate UK BridgeAI.
  • GraphinksTM: Two-year supply agreement with Montana Quimica to graphene and related materials eg GraphinksTM.
  • Going concern: “As at 30 June 2025 the Group has a current bank balance of £0.65 million and headroom on its invoice discounting facilities of £0.03 million, which includes £0.54 million relating to specific grant funding to be used over the next two years. If no further external financing is received, with the free cash available of £0.11 million the Group will cease to be able to pay its liabilities as they fall due by the start of August 2025 without taking additional restructuring action and raising further funds.” 
  • Management does not now anticipate reaching break-even at the EBITDA level by the end of this financial year as previously reported in the Company’s 2024 Annual Report.
  • Strategic investment delay to the NSIA ‘UK National Security and Investment Act’ and Chinese Outbound Direct Investment.
    • Part of the investment is dependent on the ability to form a new UK joint venture company which is pending a decision from the Investment Screening Unit.
  • Strategic review and sale of 3D construction printing:
    • “Following a strategic review by the Board, the Company has taken advice from and appointed Leonard Curtis, to effect an accelerated sale of certain trade and assets of the Group’s UK Technology companies whilst minimising the cash outflows from these operations. This includes seeking a strategic joint investment partner for the 3D Construction Printing (“3DCP”) business where significant progress has been made, supported by funding from Balfour Beatty, in producing and successfully demonstrating the first of the Company’s optimised printable mortars. In addition, the trading activities of Versarien Korea Limited will be closed, although the Company anticipates ongoing activity with the local South Korean director in a consultancy role. Following this re-structuring, the Group is expected to then consist of the parent company, Versarien Plc and Total Carbide Limited in the UK, and Gnanomat S.L. in Spain.”
  • Pipeline of commercial opportunities currently stands at £2.1m

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Versarien

Xtract Resources (XTR LN) 0.88p, Mkt Cap £7.1m – Completion of initial phase of drilling delivers 51% ownership threshold at the Silverking project, Zambia

  • Xtract Resources reports the completion of its initial drilling at the Silverking project in the Mumbwa District of the Central Province of Zambia.
  • The company is earning a 70% interest in the Silverking mine and the associated exploration licence and completion of the recent phase of drilling achieves the threshold for a 51% interest with expenditure of a further US$1m required to achieve 70% ownership.
  • Drilling focussed on the ‘Main Body’ with highlighted results including:
    • An intersection of 23m at an average grade of 1.49% copper and 18.96g/t silver from a depth of 128m in hole SKI DD-013; and
    • An intersection of 16m at an average grade of 0.74% copper and 2.81g/t silver from a depth of 17m in hole SKI DD-014; and
    • An intersection of 9m at an average grade of 4.68% copper and 38.67g/t silver from 228m depth in hole SKI DD-018,
  • Xtract Resources says that “Sufficient drill data and assays generated to allow for in-house estimation of an initial non-code compliant mineral resource for internal purposes only and preliminary mine planning”.
  • Previously reported drilling results from Silverking include:
    • An intersection of 23m at an average grade of 0.74% copper and 8.33g/t silver from a depth of 113m in hole SKIDD-001; and
    • An intersection of 54.1m at an average grade of 3.18% copper and 40.32g/t silver from a depth of 56.9m in hole SKIDD-002; and
    • An intersection of 29.7m at an average grade of 4.15% copper and 42.91g/t silver from a depth of 93m in hole SKIDD-003.
  • Today’s announcement explains that work is underway in preparation for “an estimated 2,000m of drilling over the Kopje Prospect” located south of the ‘Main Body’ where “a channel sample across an old working” assayed 2.55% copper and 30.4g/t silver across a width of 4.3m.
  • Commenting on the results, Executive Chairman, Colin Bird, said that “Drilling continues to generate encouraging high-grade copper – silver intercepts and with each set of results we move closer to being able to determine an initial non-code compliant mineral resource estimate for internal purposes only and thereafter a mine plan and schedule”.
  • He explained that before developing a process flowsheet, “we need to have a more detailed understanding of the likely global resource for the Project”,

Conclusion: Xtract Resources has secured 51% ownership of the Silverking project in Zambia following the completion of its initial drilling.  Drilling is now expected to move onto the Kopje prospect located south of Silverking.

Zanaga Iron Ore (ZIOC LN) 8.34p, Mkt Cap £69m – 2024 results highlight updated Feasibility Study and corporate restructuring

  • Zanaga Iron Ore reports a 2024 loss of ~US$2.3m (2023 – loss of ~US$2.7m) and a closing cash balance of ~US$0.1m.
  • Today’s announcement highlights the updated, April 2024, Feasibility Study for the development of the 30mtpa Zanaga Iron Ore Project in the Republic of Congo.
  • The study describes an initial 12mtpa operation costing US$1.94bn and delivering a 68.5% iron product at a cost of US$31.5/t ramping up to the 30mtpa level at an additional cost of US$1.87bn delivering a higher-grade (69.1%) product at a lower US$24.9/t operating cost.
  • The deposit hosts a ‘Proven & Probable’ ore reserve of ~2bn tonnes at an average grade of 33.9% iron within a total ‘Measured, Indicated & Inferred’ resource of ~6.9bn tonnes at a grade of 32% iron within a 25km long portion of an overall 47km long strike length of the orebody so far identified.
  • The April 2024 study describes the initial 12mtpa phase as expected to deliver an NPV of ~US$3.7bn and IRR of 26% with the expanded, 30mtpa operation generating an NPV of ~US$7.4bn and IRR of 28%.
  • Additional opportunities are under consideration including the development of a pellet plant and the construction of a 30mtpa capacity pipeline in Phase 1 of the project in order to reduce the Phase 2 capital expenditure.
  • Non-Executive Chairman, Clifford Elphick, explained that During Q2 2025, the Company commissioned and completed a metallurgical laboratory test work programme aimed at determining the ability of the Zanaga Project to produce DRI grade pellet feed concentrate across its full 30Mtpa planned production scale, including both Stage One and Stage Two.
  • He explained that adjustments to the Zanaga Project’s planned process flow sheet … [and that metallurdgical tests in China showed that DRI production using magnetic separation and flotation is] … expected to have no significant change to capital and operating costs.
  • Mr. Elphick said that results demonstrated the ability to produce a DRI specification pellet feed product … [and he confirmed that] … these results were then also separately independently confirmed through a test work programme was completed in the United Kingdom.
  • In what he described as a pivotal transaction, Mr. Elphick also confirmed the successful buyback of Glencore’s entire equity shareholding for US$15m which provides Zanaga Iron with greater strategic autonomy … [which] … enabled new cornerstone investors to participate in the equity fundraise, which secured US$23.01m in gross proceeds.
  • The new investors include:
    • Greymont Bay LLC… whose investors and advisors include Mark Cutifani, Tony Trahar, Tony O’Neil, Phil Mitchell, and Heeney Capital Resource Partners; and
    • “Gagan Gupta, Founder and CEO of Arise; and
    • Sir Mick Davis, a highly successful mining executive accredited with listing, leading and building Xstrata into one of the largest diversified mining companies globally prior to its acquisition by Glencore in 2013.
  • Looking ahead, the Chairman said that the company remains confident in the significant inherent value of the Zanaga Project and our strategic direction towards construction readiness.

Conclusion: The departure of Glencore from its register and the updated feasibility study offers Zanaga Iron a new route to development of its 2bn tonne iron-ore reserve in the Republic of Congo.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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35-39 Maddox Street London

W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

Sources of commodity prices  
Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London)
Gold ETFs, Steel Bloomberg
Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt LME
Oil Brent ICE
Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore NYMEX
Thermal Coal Bloomberg OTC Composite
Coking Coal SSY
RRE Steelhome

Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, Rutile Asian Metal

DISCLAIMER

This note is a marketing communication and comprises non-independent research. This means it has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination.

This note is intended only for distribution to Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties as defined under the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority and is not directed at Retail Clients.

This note is confidential and is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published in whole or in part, for any purpose.

This note has been issued by SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP (‘SPA’) to promote its investment services. Neither the information nor the opinions expressed herein constitutes, or is to be construed as, an offer or invitation or other solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell investments. The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is wholly accurate or complete. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to change without notice. It is not investment advice and does not take into account the investment objectives and policies, financial position or portfolio composition of any recipient. SPA is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. Where the subject of the research is a client company of SPA we may have shown a draft of the research (or parts of it) to the company prior to publication to check factual accuracy, soundness of assumptions etc.

Distribution of this note does not imply distribution of future notes covering the same issuers, companies or subject matter.

Where the investment is traded on AIM it should be noted that liquidity may be lower and price movements more volatile.

SPA, its partners, officers and/or employees may own or have positions in any investment(s) mentioned herein or related thereto and may, from time to time add to, or dispose of, any such investment(s).

SPA is registered in England and Wales with company number OC317049.  The registered office address is Prince Frederick House, 35-39 Maddox Street, London W1S 2PP.  SPA is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange plc.

MiFID II – Based on our analysis we have concluded that this note may be received free of charge by any person subject to the new MiFID II rules on research unbundling pursuant to the exemptions within Article 12(3) of the MiFID II Delegated Directive and FCA COBS Rule 2.3A.19.

A full analysis is available on our website here http://www.spangel.co.uk/legal-and-regulatory-notices.html. If you have any queries, feel free to contact our Compliance Officer, Tim Jenkins (tim.jenkins@spangel.co.uk).

SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return


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