SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Tuesday 1st April 2025

Tin jumps on Myanmar earthquake as Chinese smelters struggle to find ore with Bisie in the DRC offline

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Bradda Head (BHL LN) – Ore sorting study results from San Domingo spodumene

I-80 Gold (IAU CN) – Full year results as focus on Granite Creek ramp up

Ironveld (IRON LN) – Publication of delayed accounts for year to 30^th June 2024

Tolu Minerals (TOK AU) – Update on gold plant commissioning

Tin ($36,645/t) jumps on Myanmar earthquake as Chinese smelters struggle to find ore with Bisie in the DRC offline due to M23 rebel proximity

• Tin has been rallying since M23 rebel activity in north-Kivu forced the closure of the Bisie tin mine.
• Tin is up c.10% since the mine closed, with the operation accounting for 6% of global mine supply last year and set to ramp up further in 2025.
• Additionally, Kivu is a major tin supplier from artisanal sources, producing 3.3kt Sn last year.
• China smelters are currently struggling with limited access to ore, with the closure of Man Maw in 2023 limiting supply.
• The Wa State had recently approved the reopening of Man Maw, approving new permits.
• In the meantime, Chinese down streamers have been relying on scrap stock, with secondary-fed production up 15%yoy last year. (Reuters)

• The severity of the 7.7 magnitude earthquake has overwhelmed Myanmar and Thai hospitals with many concrete structures collapsed along the Sagaing fault with bridges down other infrastructure down.
• The Sagaing strike-slip fault is a similar geological structure to the San Andreas fault where major 7.9 earthquakes struck in 1906 and 1857
• Anecdotal reports suggest a significantly higher death toll in from the Myanmar earthquake with the USGS estimating >10,000.

Gold ($3,130/oz) up on tomorrow’s ‘Liberation Day’ as Trump’s third term comments spook market

• Gold has been grinding higher, consolidating around the $3,125/oz mark following a sharp move higher on Friday.
• The metal rallied on Monday following sustained market concerns over Trump’s April 2^nd tariff deadline day, dubbed ‘Liberation Day.’
• Furthermore, Trump suggesting that he was ‘not joking’ about serving a third term, suggesting that ;a lot of people want me to do it.’
• This may have further fuelled haven demand, with traders positioning for potential heightened geopolitical and domestic US tensions.
• In rates, the 10 year yield continues to slide, now at 4.18%, as traders ramp up recession bets following weak consumer sentiment and slowing hiring plans.
• Focus shifts to NFP data due on Friday, with a swathe of jobs numbers due this week,

Copper ($9,745/t) holds lower as China property market slumps further

• Copper continues to slide having climbed above $10,000/t last week on the exacerbating cross-Atlantic trade divergence.
• China property market, which accounts for c.12% of global copper demand, has seen further deterioration in recent weeks.
• China Vanke posted a loss, US$6.8bn, its first losing year since 1991, with contract sales down 41% in 1Q25 yoy.
• China’s job market remains fragile, further weighing on demand for an oversupplied property market.
• Property stimulus impact from Beijing’s stimulus last year has boosted demand for the second-hand market but failed to boost appetite for new home sales.
• Trump tariff day tomorrow is also weighing on global consumer sentiment.
• However, more clarity on Trump’s copper tariffs may reverse the recent sharp rally in COMEX futures reflecting traders pre-empting 25% tariffs on the metal.
• On the other hand, china manufacturing and construction measures showed expansion in March.
• Regarding supply, First Quantum has officially dropped its arbitration against Panama, paving the way for discussions over the resumption of operations at Cobre Panama.
• Cobre was supplying 1.5% of global copper output, and may hold the potential to flip the currently balanced market into surplus.

Rio Tinto confirms preliminary discussions with the DRC over potential development of Roche Dure spodumene (lithium) resource

• Roche Dure was originally defined by AVZ Minerals which proposed production of 700,000tpa of spodumene concentrate from the wider Manono project.
• The DRC revoked the AVZ Minerals licenses citing slow project development and then split the Roche Dure permit enabling Zijin Mining to pick up the northern part of the permit.
• AVZ Minerals is in dispute with the DRC Government and Zijin Mining and recently reported the ICC tribunal issued a partial award ordering The DRC’s Cominière to pay $42.4m for failing to comply with emergency orders.
• Roche Dure is seen as one of the world’s largest spodumene lithium resources with average grades potentially running at around 1.6% vs a global average of ~1.2%.
• Rio Tinto is clearly looking to become a major player in the battery materials supply chain with complimentary graphite production likely to come from Sovereign Metals* Kasiya project in Malawi.
• The move also follows Rio’s $6.7bn acquisition of Arcadium Lithium in the US and Rincon $825m in Argentina.
• Rio Tinto are currently working with Aterian Plc, in Rwanda, exploring for spodumene pegmatites.*
• Development of Roche Dure in Manono, DRC may be a way of hedging Rio’s bets by acquiring the world’s largest, higher-grade, hard-rock deposit albeit in the last place Rio would probably ever want to be.
• Roche Dure deposit is metallurgically interesting in that its spodumene is reported to have a remarkable consistency in grain size along with low iron and other impurities making it economically and environmentally preferable for furnaces.
• Production is estimated to potentially produce 25,000-30,000t of LCE ‘lithium carbonate equivalent’ with AISC costs potentially below $5,000/t of LCE.

*SP Angel act as Nomad and broker to Sovereign Metals

*SP Angel acts as Broker to Aterian

ii / interactive investor – video interviews:  

• Is China losing its grip on African mining, inc. Sovereign Metals*, Kefi*, Atlantic Lithium*, Goldstone*, Kodal*, Yellow Cake, Kazera Global, Aterian*: 
• Gold, inc. Goldstone*, Kefi, 
• Trump tariffs, China and critical metals, inc. Aterian*, Atlantic Lithium*, Sovereign Metals*, Yellow Cake, Kazera Global
• Five mining stocks to watch:  , inc. Sovereign Metals*, Kazera Global, Yellow Cake, Thor Explorations, Kodal Minerals*

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and/or Broker

Sharepickers: Gold & Copper Small Caps: https://audioboom.com/posts/8693044-john-meyer-here-s-some-gold-copper-small-caps

• Gold, copper, 13:05 Orosur*, 13:38 Oriole*, 15:25 Resolute, 16:44 Goldstone*, 17:46 Antofagasta, 18:23 Central Asia Metals, 19:56 Kavango, 20:52 Power Metal Resources, 24:25 Kefi*, 25:18 Tertiary Minerals*
• Video:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KG6furFO3n4X

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and/or Broker

FCA To Encourage Retail Investors To Increase Their Risk Levels: https://audioboom.com/posts/8693692-fca-to-encourage-retail-investors-to-increase-their-risk-levels

Economics

US Liberation Day tomorrow

President Trump to unveil his reciprocal tariffs later today that are expected to come into effect tomorrow.

• There are “no exemptions at this time” White House Press Secretary said facing questions if some categories would be carved out.
• Earlier, President Trump highlighted trade charges levied by the EU, Japan, India and Canada when talking about reciprocal tariffs.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the tariff announcement would be made at 3pm Washington time.
• Most tariffs are to be reciprocal tariffs which simply reflect the tariffs applied by other nations onto US products.
• Trump has also said that essentially all trading partners will be hit with tariffs with the average tariff will be between10-20% according to the FT.
• The US is to announce near-immediate tariffs on nations with significant trade imbalances with the US including: China, EU, Mexico, Vietnam, Ireland, Germany, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Canada, India, Thailand, Italy, Switzerland and Malaysia. (FT)
• Major tariffs are also imposed on UK and EU vehicles and parts with import tariffs potentially stacking up to >175% on certain vehicles.

China – Private sector manufacturing reported better than expected expansion in March.

• The sixth consecutive month of growth in the sector and the fastest pace since November driven by growth in new orders and the quickest increase in exports since last April.
• Increased overseas demand ahead of new series of tariffs as well as pro stimulus rhetoric from the government helped the headline measure.
• Chinese military kick off large scale military and coastguard exercises next to Taiwan. (FT)
• This is the latest round of escalating campaign to assert Beijing’s claims of the island’s sovereignty.
• Exercises would involve naval, air, ground and missile forces practising “seizing comprehensive control, strikes on sea and land targets and blockade operations”.
• The PLA held a series of military drills near Taiwan since new president took office in May last year with the latest one in mid-March.
• Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Mar/Feb/Est): 51.2/50.8/50.6

Eurozone – Inflation slowed to 2.2% in March, in line with estimates and down on 2.3% in February.

• Services inflation also slowed and currently running at 3.4%, down on 3.7% the previous month.
• Markets assign 75% of a rate cut at the coming meeting in April with a total of over two 25bp rate cuts in 2025.

UK – Property prices stalled in March as the stamp duty tax relief is withdrawn, Nationwide data showed. (FT)

• House prices were up 3.9%yoy.
• London prices remain highest cost in the UK with average properties going for >£500k but is the slowest growing market reporting a <2% annual change.
• The tax will start to apply to properties worth £300k and more, down from £425k previously, adding to the total cost of purchasing a home from April 1.
• Food prices climb 2.4%yoy in March adding to living costs expected to weigh on consumer sentiment. (Bloomberg)
• The increase come on top of rises in energy, water bills, council tax and transport costs.
• Further increases are likely to continue as businesses are likely to try and pass on extra costs of higher NI contributions and minimum wages.

France – French court finds Marine Le Pen guilty of embezzling EU funds and barred her standing for an election for five years. (FT)

• The ruling means she will be unable to take part in the 2027 presidential election, for which she was one of the favourites.
• The case relates to a series of fake contracts and jobs helping Rassemblement National siphon out ~€4.4m of EU funds using parliamentary assistance to work for the party.
• 24 RN elected officials were tried for similar offences alongside Le Pen was an MEP between 2004 and 2016.
• Five year electoral ban will begin immediately while four year jail sentence is subject to losing all ruling appeals.
• Two years of the sentence could be served under surveillance wearing an ankle bracelet.
• Le Pen was also fined €100k.

Russia – Putin luxury limousine catches fire in central Moscow

• Images of the burning Russian Aurus Senat vehicle do not show any casualties.
• Witnesses are reported to have seen a fire in the engine bay which then engulfed the vehicle.
• The event follows comments by Zelenski that Putin will die soon.
• Putin is reported to have increased his security personnel in recent weeks and is said to wear a bullet proof vests at public speaking events.

Iran – Iranian Revolutionary Guards have hijacked two reported and potentially a third oil tanker in the Arabian Gulf

• Reports suggest the tankers are reported to be carrying ~800,000 gallons of allegedly smuggled diesel fuel.
• The two tankers reported by Reuters have 25 crew and are being transferred to Bushehr port.
• Iran has been trying to stop oil smuggling so its not necessarily a geopolitical event.

Currencies

US$1.0803/eur vs 1.0829/eur previous. Yen 149.89/$ vs 149.13/$. SAr 18.405/$ vs 18.250/$. $1.291/gbp vs $1.297/gbp. 0.625/aud vs 0.627/aud. CNY 7.269/$ vs 7.252/$

Dollar Index 104.235 vs 103.95 previous

Precious metals:         

Gold US$3,131/oz vs US$3,122/oz previous

Gold ETFs 87.9moz vs 87.9moz previous

Platinum US$991/oz vs US$1,020/oz previous

Palladium US$991/oz vs US$994/oz previous

Silver US$33.9/oz vs US$35.1/oz previous

Rhodium US$5,700/oz vs US$5,775/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$9,772/t vs US$9,757/t previous

Aluminium US$2,538/t vs US$2,524/t previous

Nickel US$16,145/t vs US$16,090/t previous

Zinc US$2,864/t vs US$2,840/t previous

Lead US$2,013/t vs US$2,030/t previous

Tin US$36,450/t vs US$36,200/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$74.8/bbl vs US$73.7/bbl previous

Henry Hub Gas US$4.10/mmBtu vs US$4.20/mmBtu yesterday

• Crude oil prices rose yesterday after President Trump threatened Russia with tariffs to limit the country’s oil exports if President Putin refused a ceasefire with Ukraine.
• First oil has commenced at the $8bn Equinor-operated Johan Castberg field in Norway’s Barent Sea, which will ramp-up to 220kb/d production capacity in 2Q25 and targets initial recoverable volumes of 450-650mb.
• Norway’s NBIM has agreed to pay RWE €1.4bn to acquire a 49% stake in two offshore wind farms under construction, the 1.08GW Thor wind farm in Denmark and the 1.56GW Nordseecluster project in Germany.

Natural Gas €41.0/MWh vs €40.8/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $64.6/lb vs $64.3/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (China CFR) US$103.7/t vs US$103.3/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$475.1/t vs US$476.8/t

HCC FOB Australia US$175.0/t vs US$174.3/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$106.8/t vs US$100.0/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$33,965/t vs US$33,845/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$61,153/t vs US$60,642/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$9,919/t vs US$9,912/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$805/t vs US$805/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,005/t vs US$1,005/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$358/mtu vs US$358/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$435/t vs US$435/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.0/lb vs US$5.0/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.3/kg vs US$24.3/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$291/t vs US$299/t

Global Rutile Spot Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,506/t vs US$1,506/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$337.5/t vs US$335.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$2,825.0/kg vs US$2,825.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$390.0/kg vs US$390.0/kg

Battery News

Nio reaches 70 millionth battery swap milestone

• Nio saw its cumulative battery swap service exceed 70m, less than four months after reaching the 60m milestone.
• Since March, Nio has provided an average of 88,000 battery swaps per day.
• The company claims that the battery swap service has cumulatively saved users about 58.2 million hours compared to using public charging facilities, an average of 124 hours per user.

Xiaomi SU7 crash kills three in China

• A Xiaomi SU7 driving on a highway in Tongling, China, caught fire after accidentally hitting a highway guardrail, killing the three people in the car.
• With details circulating on social media, Xiaomi’s share price dropped almost 5%.
• Xiaomi has released a statement and is cooperating with police to understand the cause of the crash.
• According to vehicle data the vehicle was travelling at a speed of 116km/h with the Navigate on Autopilot function switched on.
• The vehicle detected obstacles in the road and warned the driver to take over and began to slow down before the crash occurred.

Company News

Bradda Head (BHL LN) 1.6p, Mkt Cap £4.9m – Ore sorting study results from San Domingo spodumene

• Bradda Head reports results from their mineral particle ore-sorting study from October 2024.
• The study used core from the 2023 drilling campaign and the testwork was conducted on bench-scale, using XRT/XRF sorting technology.
• Study suggests the ore sorting works, potentially lowering water usage and reducing OPEX.
• Sorting expected to reduce crushing equipment requirements and potentially produce a direct shipping ore at >2% Li20 with no DMS.
• Bradda Head’s financial model uses hypothetical tonnage of 2.5mtpa at 0.8% Li2O over 14 year LOM.
• The ore sorting ‘can potentially upgrade ROM material to >2% Li2O.’
• Company notes the waste product contained c.0% Lithium, with an intermediate product containing low-grade lithium possibly stockpiled for further treatment.
• The Engineering Company conducting the study has suggested to conduct bulk scale testing at 300-500kg tests.
• Company will examine economic optimisation and potential stockpiling, also adding that the ore-sorting results can lower the resource cut-off grade.

I-80 Gold (IAU CN) A$0.85, Mkt Cap A$373m – Full year results as focus on Granite Creek ramp up

• Canadian gold developer I-80 reports full year results as it looks to progress its five gold projects.
• The Company produced 11koz from Granite Creek over 2024, and 3.6koz from Ruby Gold.
• Cash balance at US$19m.
• I-80 is aiming to ramp up five gold projects over the coming decade to 400-500kozpa.
• Current focus on ramping up Granite Creek, with a feasibility study due 4Q25.
• Granite Creek holds M&I resources of 1mt at 10.4g/t Au for 337koz.
• Company recapitalising its balance sheet, with gold prepays, working capital facilities, royalty sales, senior lending facilities.
• In line with this strategy, I-80 entered a prepay arrangement with NBC for 6,800oz Au and 345koz Ag by September 30^th 2025, used to satisfy gold and silver deliveries due to Orion.
• Company also working on a facility with Auramet for $12m, maturing in 12 months.

Ironveld (IRON LN) – 0.04p, Mkt cap £5.3m – Publication of delayed accounts for year to 30^th June 2024

• Ironveld, whose shares were suspended in January following delays to the publication of its accounts, has now released its results for the year to 30^th June 2024.
• The company reports a pre-tax loss of £1.2m (2023 – £1.2m loss) and a closing cash balance of £4m.
• Ironveld raised an additional £2.5m in October 2024 to assist in the completion of “the DMS plant in Limpopo and also make essential upgrades to our smelter complex, allowing us to achieve profitable production capacity and advance towards revenue generation and cash flow positivity by the end of Q2 2025”.
• In his letter to shareholders, Chairman, Dr. John Wardle, explains that “a portion of the proceeds from the fundraising was allocated to complete operational facilities at the mine and for the commissioning and completion of the DMS plant, where the majority of the plant is now installed”.
• In addition, Ironveld “achieved notable progress with the renegotiated DMS Magnetite joint venture with Sable Platinum Holdings (Pty) Ltd … [which]… enables Ironveld to supply ore to the JV without the need for upfront capital, reducing overall average mining costs and accelerating the timeline to positive cash flow”.
• In a separate announcement today, the company also releases its results for the six months to 31st December 2024 reporting a loss of £0.69m (H1 2023 – £0.39m loss) and a 31st December cash balance of £1.32m.
• The interim report confirms that Ironveld’s “smelter facility in Rustenburg remained under secure care and maintenance while design studies are performed … [and that it] … as made significant progress on the design phase of a pilot plant at … [the] …smelter in Rustenburg, intended for the production of market samples”.
• Dr. Wardle says that the “remainder of the year is expected to mark Ironveld’s full transition into a producer of DMS grade magnetite … [and that the company] … expects to successfully secure offtake agreements for the powders which will result in the development of the smelting facility towards commercial production”.
• Thanking shareholders for their continuing support, he also said that “We are encouraged by the strong market demand for our product and the attractive margins it is expected to generate”.

Tolu Minerals (TOK AU) A$0.91, Mkt Cap A$103m – Update on gold plant commissioning

• Papa New Guinea gold company Tolu report first gold produced through the commissioning process at their Tolukuma modular gravity plant.
• The Company reports success with the geotube tailings decant system, and how commissioning with ROM ore underway.
• Tolu expect commissioning to be completed during April, before final certification of the APT
• Tolu expects initial capacity of 6tph, 25% of the existing plant, producing 1,600ozpm Au by the end of the year.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

SP Angel                                                            

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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