SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Tuesday 19th August 2025

REEs – China is withholding its 2025 REE quotas pending US negotiations

China to stimulate further as Premier Li Qiang calls for new policies to boost spending and new investment

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

BHP (BHP LN) – 2025 results underpinned by iron ore and copper

C3 Metals (CCCM CN) – Exploration permits secured for maiden drilling at the Khaleesi Copper Gold Project

Cobra Resources (COBR LN) – Sale of South Australian gold project

Guardian Metal Resources (GMET LN) – Major new shareholder

Power Metal Resources* (POW LN) – Disposal of residual interest in Guardian Metal Resources

Vulcan Elements, a North Carolina based private company, that raised US$65m earlier this month signed an agreement with ReElement Technologies.

REEs – China withholding its 2025 REE quotas pending US negotiations

• China appears to have stopped publishing details of its rare earth mining and refining quotas, in a break from normal practice that could further raise the temperature in the US-China trade war.
• Two REE producers have received their first set of quotas for the year according to the Cailian Press but with no key details.
• We understand Chinese REE producers have been asked to quantify the scale their resources for verification by the authorities.
• “Last year, China issued two batches of quotas, with the final one coming on August 20. In 2023, three batches were released in March, September and December, respectively, according to SCMP.
• A lack of quotas will make planning by Western REE miners more uncertain, though we expect strong growth in REE demand will likely soak up supply from all Western ventures for some time to come,
• The quota system was originally intended to ensure sufficient mine and refinery production for Chinese domestic demand and we suspect China may be preparing to move towards a better balance on the home front.
• Non-Chinese REE consumers are likely to be forced to look elsewhere for guarantees of new supply with so much uncertainty.
• Supplies of REE magnets have recently resumed to UK and presumably other western manufacturers but with warnings from China not to stockpile and hoard supply.
• We suspect most consumers will start to rebuild inventories of critical REE components despite the advice.
• China approved a 6% increase on mining quotas to 270,000t though this was a far smaller increase than the 21% increase in 2023.
• Refining quotas rise 4% to 254,000t in 2024 also representing a pull back from 2023’s 21% growth.

China to stimulate further as Premier Li Qiang calls for new policies to boost spending and new investment

• Uncertainty caused by ongoing negotiations with the US over Trump’s proposed tariffs probably caused China to miss GDP and other growth forecasts last week.
• Plans to reroute production through third countries have been dashed with manufacturers expecting >20% tariffs on exports to the US.
• The situation is disrupting plans for investment and growth as manufacturers turn cautious in an uncertain environment.
• Demand growth in China, stimulated to offset a fall in exports to the US appears to be waning with retail sales rising just 3.7% yoy in July vs estimates for 4.7%.
• Fixed-asset investment rose just 1.6% yoy in July vs 2.8% for the first six months and expectations for 2.7%.
• Youth unemployment rises to 17.8% in July partly with university students looking for work but the figure is worryingly high as the Lay-Flat generation lies flat and graduate jobs struggle to meet expectations.
• China’s overall urban jobless rate edged up to 5.2 per cent in July, after holding at 5 per cent for the two months prior.
• Reminds us of the old joke, what do you say to an Oxbridge graduate? ‘Big Mac and Fries please’!
• Policies to encourage new demand for housing and redevelopment projects look likely along with a raft of other anti-involution ideas to boost consumption.

IGTV – The Future of Mining: Gold, Copper, Rare Earths & M&A:  https://youtu.be/-G59iOq6x2c?si=z4fVkyHNP9isbOTB

The News Forum – The Buck Stops Here: https://www.thenewsforum.ca/series/thebuckstopshere

Economics

US and European officials agree to work on security guarantees for Ukraine ahead of a potential meeting between presidents Zelenskiy and Putin.

• “During the meeting we discussed Security Guarantees for Ukraine, which Guarantees would be provided by the various European Countries, with a coordination with the United States of America,” Trump said post a meeting in Washington.
• Planned guarantees discusses are “Article 5-like” without Ukraine actually being in the Nato at the point in time.
• Exact details and the US role will have to be first worked out by officials.
• In return Ukraine is likely to consider losing territories currently de fact held by Russian forces, albeit, without official recognition of annexed lands.
• The discussion over territories was decided to be left for Zelenskiy’s meeting with Putin.
• “It was our best meeting with President Trump,” Zelenskiy said describing results as a “big step forward”.
• President Trump held a phone conversation with President Putin in the middle of the meeting with Urkainian, EU and Nato leaders.
• Direct talks between Ukrainian and Russian leaders may be organised as soon as two -three weeks.
• “I called President Putin, and began the arrangements for a meeting, at a location to be determined, between President Putin and President Zelenskyy. After that meeting takes place, we will have a Trilat, which would be the two Presidents, plus myself. Again, this was a very good, early step,” Trump wrote.

Ukraine will commit to buy US$100bn worth of American weapons funded by Europe in a bid to bring the US into the parties providing security guarantees. (FT)

• Kyiv and Washington would also strike a US%50bn deal to produce drones with Ukrainian companies.

China/India – Two nations moved closer to normalisation of trade relations as Beijing agreed to resume supply of fertilisers, rare earth minerals and tunnel boring machines.

• Two nations argued that closer cooperation is required amid unpredictable US trade policies.
• Narenda Modi is expected to meet Xi Jinping later this month in his first visit to China in seven years.
• Ties between the Asian neighbours deteriorated after a bloody border skirmish five years ago, Bloomberg writes.

One of the team is away motorbiking across Kyrgyzstan

• This would normally be a good thing but our lad may not be that well acquainted with motorbikes, particularly in offroad circumstances.
• Let’s hope our intrepid analyst does not come back with too many stories of the Kyrgyz healthcare system.

Currencies

US$1.1681/eur vs 1.1699/eur previous. Yen 147.66/$ vs 147.21/$. SAr 17.630/$ vs 17.625/$. $1.352/gbp vs $1.355/gbp. 0.649/aud vs 0.651/aud. CNY 7.183/$ vs 7.180/$.

Dollar Index 98.04 vs 97.85 previous.

Precious metals:

Gold US$3,340/oz vs US$3,350/oz previous

Gold ETFs 92.6moz vs 92.7moz previous

Platinum US$1,340/oz vs US$1,332/oz previous

Palladium US$1,124/oz vs US$1,113/oz previous

Silver US$38.0/oz vs US$38.1/oz previous

Rhodium US$7,575/oz vs US$7,575/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$9,759/t vs US$9,737/t previous

Aluminium US$2,572/t vs US$2,588/t previous

Nickel US$15,115/t vs US$15,085/t previous

Zinc US$2,774/t vs US$2,779/t previous

Lead US$1,983/t vs US$1,972/t previous

Tin US$33,875/t vs US$33,660/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$66.0/bbl vs US$66.0/bbl previous

• European energy prices slipped toward €31/MWh, near their lowest since May 2024, as market sentiment has improved regarding ceasefire efforts in Ukraine.

Natural Gas €30.9/MWh vs €31.0/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $73.2/lb vs $73.0/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (cfr Dalian) US$109.7/t vs US$110.3/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$482.4/t vs US$483.0/t

HCC FOB Australia US$189.8/t vs US$190.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$110.3/t vs US$109.0/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$33,335/t vs US$33,335/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$81,795/t vs US$77,643/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$11,973/t vs US$11,754/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$990/t vs US$955/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,005/t vs US$1,005/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$483/mtu vs US$483/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$410/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.4/lb vs US$5.3/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.4/kg vs US$23.4/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$268/t vs US$275/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,093/t vs US$1,093/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$355.0/t vs US$355.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

EV & battery news

‘Dead’ EV batteries still hold ~80% lithium, study finds

• A study from Edith Cowan University found that EV batteries considered ‘dead’ still retain nearly 80% of their lithium capacity.
• The lithium in the batteries remains highly purified (~99%) and could be recycled instead of wasted.
• Recycling offers environmental perks: cuts carbon emissions by ~61%, energy use by ~83%, and water use by ~79% compared with mining.
• By 2035, Australia alone could generate around $2bn annually from battery recycling.
• Recycling also enables recovery of nickel and cobalt, further boosting value.

Kandi secures CATL order for heavy-truck battery swap stations

• China Battery Exchange, a subsidiary of Kandi Technologies, a leader in all-electric , won its first order from CATL for heavy-truck battery swap station equipment.
• The equipment includes main station structures, robotic arm systems, and precision temperature-controlled battery compartments.
• It supports CATL’s “Ten Thousand Station Plan” targeting 500 battery-swap stations in 2025 and over 10,000 nationwide long-term.
• The first delivery of equipment is expected within 3 months, and will then be supplied as needed in small-batch production.

Chinese team creates nuclear battery that could last over a century without charging

• Chinese scientists have developed the country’s first carbon-based nuclear battery that could last 50 years, and potentially exceed 100 years, without recharging.
• The ultra-long-lasting battery is aimed at powering devices in extreme environments, such as pacemakers, spacecraft or deep-sea instruments.
• The battery uses carbon-14, an isotope with a half-life of ~5,730 years, enabling theoretical operation for millennia.
• A prototype powered an LED for over four months (35,000+ pulses) and transmitted Bluetooth signals, demonstrating stability.

Company news

BHP (BHP LN) 2,019p,Mkt Cap £101bn – 2025 results underpinned by iron ore and copper

• Reporting on a year of what CEO, Mike Henry, described as a year of record “operational performance and capital discipline” BHP announced attributable profit for the year to 30th June 2025 of US$10.2bn (2024- US$13.7bn) and underlying EBITDA of US$26.0bn (2024- US$29.0bn.)
• Closing net debt of US$12.9bn compares with US$9.1bn in 2024 and US$9.1bn at the end of June 2024. Gearing is reported at 19.8%.
• BHP has declared “a final dividend of 60 US cents per share” (US$3.0bn) bringing full year payout to US$1.10/share (2024 – US$1.46/share).
• Mr. Henry commented that the “global economic outlook is mixed. Growth is expected to ease to 3% or slightly below in the near-term amid shifting trade policies, yet demand for commodities remains strong, particularly in China and India”.
• He said that “Chinese copper demand outperformed in FY25, while iron ore demand was resilient, driven by strong infrastructure investment and manufacturing activity in China”.
• Mr. Henry also expressed confidence in “the long-term fundamentals of steelmaking materials, copper and fertilisers, which are critical to global growth, urbanisation and the energy transition”.
• BHP’s US$26bn EBITDA is dominated by the contribution of its iron ore businesses which delivered US$14.4bn (~55%) with a further US$12.3bn (~47%) generated by the copper division with US$0.6bn from coal offset by an EBITDA loss of US$1.3bn from the potash, WA Nickel and other operations.
• Almost all the EBITDA contribution of the iron-ore business stems from the Western Australian operations with the Brazilian operations of Samarco breaking even.  BHP attributes the lower EBITDA contribution of its iron ore operations to “lower average realised prices for iron ore, which decreased 19%”.
• 2026 iron-ore output is expected in the range 25—269mt.
• BHP explains that long-term “copper fundamentals remain attractive. Demand is expected to grow from ~33 Mt today to >50 Mt by 2050” or around 1.7%pa.
• Contributions from copper are dominated by the US$8.6bn from Escondida which delivered a 16% increase in copper production at a cost of US$1.19/lb – 18% lower year-on-year.
• The other South American copper mines at Pampa Norte and Antamina contributed US$1.3bn and US$1.0bn respectively to EBITDA.
• South Australian copper contributed US$1.9bn from its operations at Olympic Dam, Carapateena and Prominent Hill while the company reports that exploration of the Oak Dam project “peaked at 13 active drill rigs during the period (8 now active) … [and that BHP is] … seeking government, heritage and regulatory approvals to begin execution activities on twin underground access declines”.
• BHP expects copper production of 1.8-2mt in FY 2026.
• “In August 2024 we announced an Inferred Mineral Resource at Oak Dam of 1,340 Mt at 0.66% copper and 0.33 g/t gold grades following initial drilling”.
• Group exploration expenditure of US$396m, including work to “increase our resource base by pursuing brownfield exploration” as well asearlier stage greenfield exploration “focused on the discovery of high-quality resources, with a current focus on copper”.
• BHP highlights its “partnership with Codelco to explore the Anillo project in Antofagasta, Chile … located approximately 30 km from Escondida” as well as “greenfield exploration activities … currently focused on Chile, Peru, Canada, Australia, Serbia, Norway, Finland, Botswana and the United States”.

Conclusion: BHP reports confidence in global copper demand growth from its current 33mtpa to 50mtpa by 2050

C3 Metals (CCCM CN) C$0.97, Mkt Cap C$97m – Exploration permits secured for maiden drilling at the Khaleesi Copper Gold Project

• The Company secured regulatory approvals to launch exploration drilling at the Khaleesi Copper Gold Project, Peru.
• Drilling to focus on targets identified from geological mapping, geochemical and geophysical programmes.
• Initial mapping identified a 1500mx1,000m alteration with follow up soil sampling returning multiple large scale copper in soil anomalies.
• Anomalies are located over a significant zone of mapped porphyry-skarn-epithermal styles of mineralization.
• Geophysics data provided further evidence for a sizeable system that appears to connect in the central project area beneath the glacial till occurrence.
• The programme to comprise 6,000m (14-hole) and is expected to start next month (September 2025).
• This is the maiden drilling programme at Khaleesi.

Cobra Resources (COBR LN) 3.7p, Mkt cap £32m – Sale of South Australian gold project

• Cobra Resources reports the completion of its sale of the Wuddina gold project in South Australia to ASX-listed Barton Gold.
• The first payment, comprising A$200,000in cash plus A$800m in shares has been received
• As described in an announcement on 30^th June, Cobra Resources and Barton Gold agreed a total consideration of up to A$15m for Wuddina.
• The remaining A$14m comprises a further A$300m in cash and A$4.2m in shares due on ‘Final Settlement’ and the balance of up to A$7.5m in cash due in a production related ‘Production Benefit’ plus an additional A$2m of shares due “upon delineation of a JORC (2012) Mineral Resource Estimate exceeding 500,000 ounces of gold at Wudinna (currently 279,000 ounces)”.
• Managing Director, Rupert Verco, confirmed that “We are now working through the required mechanisms for Final Settlement that will enable further cash and share payments and the Barton Gold team to commence exploration and resource expansion works from which we hope to gain further value through our Barton Gold shareholding

Conclusion: Cobra Resources disposal of the Wudinna gold project underlines its focus on the Boland in-situ rare-earth’s recovery project in South Australian.

Guardian Metal Resources (GMET LN) 61p, Mkt Cap £97m – Major new shareholder

• Guardian Metal Resources “notes today’s announcement by Power Metal Resources plc … regarding … [an] … agreement to sell its remaining 24,699,825 ordinary shares” in the company.
• The ~£13.6m sale is to “an investment fund managed by Duquesne Family Office LLC” giving it a 14.75% interest in Guardian Metal Resources.
• CEO, Oliver Friesen, welcomed the new shareholder saying that it marks “a strong endorsement of Guardian’s position in the U.S. critical metals landscape”.
• He said that “our co-flagship tungsten projects in Nevada … [at Pilot Mountain and Tempiute is] … now moving into a pivotal growth phase”.

Power Metal Resources* (POW LN) 15.5p, Mkt cap £16m – Disposal of residual interest in Guardian Metal Resources

• Power Metal Resources reports the sale of its remaining shareholding in Guardian Metal Resources “to an investment fund managed by Duquesne Family Office” for ~£13.6m.
• Chief Executive, Sean Wade, described Power Metal Resources’ investment in Guardian Metals as “an enormously successful investment for Power Metal” and explained that it had realised ~£22.8m in total from an initial ~£1.9m investment.
• He said that the sale “represents a strong validation of our incubator model and gives us considerable firepower now to pursue other opportunities, a number of which have presented themselves to us in recent weeks”.

Conclusion: Power Metals has exited its Guardian Metals investment realising a substantial return to deploy into other opportunities.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker for Power Metal Resources

Vulcan Elements, a North Carolina based private company, that raised US$65m earlier this month signed an agreement with ReElement Technologies.

• Vulcan Elements is developing a commercial scale facility for production of permanent magnets in Durham, North Carolina.
• ReElement Technologies is an Indiana based private company uses Purdue University licensed technology to produce REOs.
• The technology uses chromatography based method to recover and separate REOs from originated from Professor Linda Nien-hwa Wang of Purdue University, Indiana.
• The agreement is for “thousands of metric tons” of REOs over 5y starting in 2026.
• No details on pricing have been disclosed but they say that the price was “significantly below” the floor price agreed by MP with the DoD.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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