SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Tuesday 16th July 2024

Gold ($2,437/oz) pushes higher as analysts boost rate cut forecasts

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Adriatic Metals (ADT1 LN) – Update on Constitutional Court decision

Beowulf Mining* (BEM LN) – Update to Gállok Iron Ore Project as permitting process accelerates

Bushveld Minerals* (BMN LN) – CEO and Chairman buying shares

Chaarat Gold (CGH LN) – Proposed convertible notes restructuring and delisting

Peak Rare Earths (PEK AU) – Funding consortium for Ngualla Project

Petra Diamonds (PDL LN) – FY 2024 revenue recovers as sales rise by 36% to 3.16m carats in a weak market for rough diamonds

Rio Tinto (RIO LN) – H1 operating results leave production guidance largely unchanged

Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) – Retirement of Chairman

SP Angel for win the Q2 2024 LSEG StarMine Award for Most Accurate Forecasting in Reuters Polls ranking No1 in Precious Metals forecasting

Gold ($2,437/oz) pushes higher as analysts boost rate cut forecasts

  • Gold prices rallied yesterday, settling around the $2,435/oz mark.
  • The move follows a resumption to strength for US Treasuries as Powell spoke yesterday and a number of bulge bracket banks released their rate cut forecasts.
  • Powell stated that recent data points boost confidence that inflation is cooling, and that the Fed wouldn’t wait to hit 2% before cutting rates.
  • The majority of bulge bracket banks now expect two cuts in 2024 totalling 50bp, with the majority expecting this to start in September.
  • Markets are pricing in a 60% chance of a third 25bp cut in 2024.
  • We would expect these to be on the conservative side if labour market weakness accelerates and unemployment rises over the 5% mark.
  • Margins in the US are weakening, which could see earnings hit and companies look to protect their topline by laying off employees.

Copper prices ($9,740/t) weaken as China State Grid buys aluminium

  • Copper prices have weakened from recent highs around the $10,000/t mark.
  • China’s State Grid Co. is fuelling speculation of aluminium substitution for copper.
  • The major buyer has been slowing copper wire purchases and ramping up aluminium wire buying. (Bloomberg)
  • Copper is seen as the key ingredient of the energy transition given its role in electrification.
  • However, the metal is vulnerable to substitution from aluminium when prices get too high.
  • Reports of slowing fabricator purchases in China have been persistent during this year’s rally.
  • However, copper remains the dominant metal in the sector owing to its superior properties.
  • ICA reports that substitution has accounted for 1-1.5% copper demand resumption over the past decade.

Chinese unwrought copper imports fell 15.18% to 436,000t as smelters shut for maintenance

  • Unwrought copper imports are 6.8% higher at 2.8mt YTD.
  • Copper concentrate and ore imports rose just over 2% to 2.3mt on the month and are 3.7% higher at 13.9mt YTD.

Iron ore prices hold higher as Simandou looms and Gina backs magnetite project

  • 62% China Fe prices are holding around $109/t despite Rio confirming Simandou will be coming online in 2025.
  • Rio expects a 1.5% rise in 2Q24 and Brazil has been averaging 1.66mtpd of exports in July, up 14% yoy.
  • Supply growth has been feeding into a weak demand market as China’s steel sector struggles.
  • High prices have defied analyst expectations, with the market consensus generally bearish for the steelmaking ingredient.
  • We note Gina Reinhart is eying the development of the $3.3bn Mt Bevan magnetite mine in WA. She is able to boost her stake to 70% through construction financing.
  • Mt Bevan holds the potential to produce a 70% Fe product over a 25-year LOM.
  • The move highlights growing appetite for high-grade iron products suitable for DRI steelmaking, which requires Fe grades over 68%.
  • We remain bullish on the long-term potential for magnetite projects and see Beowulf Mining* as a likely beneficiary of growing appetite as premiums expand.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Beowulf Mining

Aluminium – Chinese aluminium production rose to 3.67mt on new production from Inner Mongolia and strong hydropower availability in Yunnan province.

  • Production rose 6.9mt to 21.55mt in H1

China – 10 nonferrous metal production rose 7.5% in June to 6.61mt and 7.1% to 39mt YTD.

Daimler Truck BEV sales up 69% in Q2 2024

  • In Q2 2024, Daimler Buses saw overall bus and coach sale increase 8% yoy, driven by a boom in electric vehicle sales.
  • Battery electric buses and coaches saw growth of 69% to 648 units, up from 383 in Q2 2023.

Jaguar ‘eliminates’ almost all its petrol cars as it moves into electric era

  • By the end of this year, Jaguar will have just one combustion engine car in production as it transitions to electric-only models.
  • Production of XE, XF, and F-Type cars stopped in May, and hybrid E-Pace and electric I-Pace will cease by December.
  • The F-Pace SUV, with petrol, diesel, and hybrid variants, will continue production until the all-electric lineup begins.
  • CEO Adrian Mardell noted the discontinued models were close to zero-profitability.
  • Jaguar plans to launch a battery-powered grand tourer next year, followed by two other electric models.

Sharepickers (12.07.24):  You Can Do an Awful Lot with a Ton of Tin! Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z8wc2MB5fG8

           Podcast: https://audioboom.com/posts/8540602-john-meyer-you-can-do-an-awful-lot-with-a-ton-of-tin

Dow Jones Industrials 0.53% at 40,212
Nikkei 225 0.20% at 41,275
HK Hang Seng -1.49% at 17,747
Shanghai Composite 0.08% at 2,976
US 10 Year Yield (bp change) -3.9 at 4.191

Economics

US – Donald Trump names JD Vance as his Vice President pick who in line with the president candidate called China the “biggest threat” to the US, FT writes.

  • JD Vance won a seat in the US Senate with Trump’s endorsement in 2022.
  • He graduated from Yale Law School, carried private practice, worked in a venture capital industry and published the bestselling memoir turned film Hillbilly Elegy.

China – CCP Third Plenum

  • Expect the Plenum to support China’s longer term strategy:
    • to transition to high-tech industries and high-tech products
    • to rebuild its defensive and offensive military
    • ongoing urbanisation
    • ongoing industrialisation to focus on high-tech, mainly EVs, semiconductors and consumer electronic
  • We expect initiatives to follow the Plenum in:
    • Property market stabilisation – flat prices continue to collapse across China threatening lenders and mortgage holders
    • More social housing, possibly state controlled in some form to encourage more people to move to cities from Rural settings
      • “Property is for living and not for speculation“
    • China may well cut interest rates in synchronicity with the US with many other nations following
    • Banks: We suspect a number of banks will need further support given the pull-back in property prices
    • Infrastructure – we expect some new major infrastructure projects to support the move towards more high-tech industries
    • Healthcare: will China start to adopt some form of healthcare net for its citizens. Can they afford it?
      • Maybe they will develop some form of state-controlled insurance model to offset the cost.
    • Dual Circulation: Exports are up but China may look to stimulate more domestic consumption.

Economic data:

  • Industrial production rose 5.3% in June vs 5.6% in May,
  • capacity utilisation 74.9% in June vs 73.6% in May,
  • unemployment steady at 5% in June vs in May,
  • retail sales 2% in June vs 3.7% in May,
  • home price index fell 4.5% yoy in June vs -3.9% in May,
  • fixed asset investment rose 3.9% ytd to end June vs 4.0% in May,

China poses ‘deadly’ threat to UK

  • “We’re confronted by a deadly quartet of nations increasingly working together,” according to Lord George Robertson, former secretary-general of NATO. (FT)
  • The comment was in reference to China, Russia, Iran and North Korea.
  • Labour has pledged to make the defence sector one of the cornerstones of the government’s new industrial strategy, highlighting data showing that the wider economic impact of defence jobs as greater than many other sectors at ~40% higher than other manufacturing industries.

South Africa – New risk for ESKOM on unpaid bills by municipalities

  • ESKOM is warning that substantial unpaid bills by municipalities is a significant risk to its business.
  • The municipal debt threatens to collapse ESKOM with money owed now running at ~R15bn ($833m) annually.
  • The utility recently celebrated 100 days without power outages.

Germany – Economic sentiment dipped in July reflecting challenging overseas demand, political uncertainty in France and uncertainty over the pace of ECB withdrawal of restrictive monetary policy.

  • ZEW Economic Sentiment came in at 71.8, down from 47.5 in June and 41.2 forecast (Reuters).]

England football

  • It seems to have been overlooked in the nation’s disappointment, but the England football team have a pretty good record.
  • The national team have played in the semi-finals in the past two European Championships and reached the quarter final in the World Cup.
  • Where there was no win these were good results, the team should be proud of.
  • Ebenezer Morley, the father of football and the founder of Barnes Football Club and the man who established the rules of football would have been proud.
  • It might not be coming home but the real win is in the foundation of a sport which give so much to so many the world over.
  • Just think, next time an entrepreneur comes to you with a sheep or pig’s bladder and say’s “I’m going to turn this into a global sport” maybe take it seriously?

International Seabed Authority Council meeting – The 29th session of the ISA kicked off yesterday.

  • While the ISA is mandated by UN Convention on the Law of the Sea to manage the mineral resources of the seabed beyond national jurisdiction for the shared benefit of humankind we suspect the ISA is as toothless as a Basking shark when it comes to enforcement against Russia and China.
  • Fortunately, seafloor mining is far from proven from an economic perspective and remains a long way off in our view.
  • Moreover, seafloor mining remains a relatively minor issue when compared with:
    • trawling damage to the seabed
    • Damage caused to subsea cables by ships dragging their anchors

Currencies

US$1.0895/eur vs 1.0889/eur previous. Yen 158.48/$ vs 157.93/$. SAr 18.188/$ vs 18.089/$. $1.297/gbp vs $1.287/gbp. 0.674/aud vs 0.678/aud. CNY 7.266/$ vs 7.263/$.

Dollar Index 104.29 vs 104.23 previous.

Precious metals:         

Gold US$2,437/oz vs US$2,405/oz previous

Gold ETFs 81.7moz vs 81.6moz previous

Platinum US$994/oz vs US$1,005/oz previous

Palladium US$947/oz vs US$962/oz previous

Silver US$30.84/oz vs US$31/oz previous

Rhodium US$4,600/oz vs US$4,600/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$ 9,742/t vs US$9,847/t previous

Aluminium US$ 2,446/t vs US$2,470/t previous

Nickel US$ 16,675/t vs US$16,816/t previous

Zinc US$ 2,923/t vs US$2,950/t previous

Lead US$ 2,182/t vs US$2,195/t previous

Tin US$ 33,060/t vs US$33,695/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$84.2/bbl vs US$84.8/bbl previous

WTI Oil US$81.2/bbl vs $82.5/bbl yesterday

UK NBP Futures 74p/therm vs 72p/therm yesterday

TTF Dutch Futures €32/MWh vs €31/MWh yesterday

Henry Hub Gas US$2.17/mmBtu vs $2.27 yesterday

  • North American natural gas prices continue to slide after the Freeport LNG export facility in Texas said it plans a slow return to operations, with the first train expected online this week and the remaining two trains thereafter.
  • Essar launched the development of Europe’s first 100% hydrogen fuelled power plant to be built at the Stanlow refinery as part of the HyNet North West industrial cluster project at Liverpool Bay, which will be developed in two phases to generate 125MW of power for refining operations and are due to complete construction in 2027.
  • TotalEnergies and SSE announced a joint venture to establish a new major player in EV charging infrastructure in the UK and Ireland, which will deploy in both countries up to 3000 high power charge points (of 150 kW and more) over the next five years grouped in 300 “EV hubs”, targeting 20% market share.

Natural Gas €32.1/MWh vs €31.4/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $85.8/lb vs $86.1/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (cfr Tianjin) US$108.9/t vs US$109.0/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$513.2/t vs US$514.7/t

Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$112.0/t vs US$108.5/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$137.9/t vs US$134.5/t

Coking coal Dalian Exchange futures price US$216/t vs US$216.4/t        

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$26,625/t vs US$27,150/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$49,615/t vs US$50,104/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$11,492/t vs US$12,044/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$990/t vs US$990/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$995/t vs US$995/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$333/mtu vs US$335/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$470/t vs US$470/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% 5.1/lb vs US$5.1/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% 26.75/kg vs US$26.75/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$314/t vs US$315/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,397/t vs US$1,397/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$69.6/t vs  US$69.6/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$300.0/t vs US$307.5/t 

Battery News

EVs prove cheaper to own than gas cars over five years despite high initial costs

  • According to new market analysis from research firm J.D. Power, EVs are cheaper to own over five years compared to gas cars in almost every US state, despite higher initial costs,
  • EVs had an average transaction price of $57,584 in Q1, about $13,000 more than gas vehicles, which deters faster adoption.
  • The report highlights that EVs offer savings on fuelling, insurance, and maintenance (one of maintenance costs are higher, but they tend to have fewer mechanical issues) and Federal tax credits of up to $7,500 have made them more affordable.
  • EVs cost roughly $3,000 less over five years than gas cars. For three-year leases, they cost about $1,800 more.
  • High initial prices and charging infrastructure availability are major concerns, but improvements in these areas are expected to increase EV adoption.

CATL seeking to raise $1.5bn to fund global supply chain

  • The Chinese battery giant has held talks with overseas sovereign wealth funds and private wealth management offices as it seeks to raise about raising a $1.5bn fund to build its global supply chain.
  • CATL want to use the money to finance the corporate ecosystem it needs to expand operations in Europe and other foreign markets.

China asks WTO to establish expert panel on US EV subsidies dispute

  • China has asked the World Trade Organisation to establish an expert panel on the US EV subsidies dispute.
  • China opened the dispute in late March following the introduction of the US Inflation Reduction Act, which has seen Chinese EV tariffs set at 100%.
  • China’s commerce ministry has urged the US to follow WTO rules and stop using industrial policies to undermine international climate cooperation.
  • The countries have failed to reach a solution through consultations that would safeguard the rights and interests of its EV industry and so China is advancing its case at the WTO.

Florida to introduce in-road charging which could be big breakthrough for EV adoption

  • Florida is set to introduce in-road charging for EVs on 4 miles of road on State Road 516 in Lake and Orange Counties.
  • This is the first-ever concrete-lane wireless charging system, suitable for all vehicle types. It uses electromagnetic technology, similar to wireless toothbrush chargers.
  • The Central Florida Expressway Authority has partnered with ENRX to complete the project, which is expected to be completed in 2027.
  • ENRX is a Norwegian company with several pilots in Europe that boast over 90% charging efficiency with a power capacity of 180kW when driving 50mph.
  • The project will cost around $550m, with $14m allocated for in-road charging.

Company News

Overnight Change Weekly Change Overnight Change Weekly Change
BHP -1.4% -1.5% Freeport-McMoRan -1.7% -1.4%
Rio Tinto -2.5% -3.1% Vale -0.1% 0.3%
Glencore -0.6% -1.6% Newmont Mining -0.3% 7.3%
Anglo American -0.6% -1.2% Fortescue 0.5% 3.3%
Antofagasta -0.7% -2.2% Teck Resources -1.2% 2.8%

Adriatic Metals (ADT1 LN) 170p, Mkt cap £600m – Update on Constitutional Court decision

  • Adriatic highlights the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina notice on Federal BiH law.
  • The Court stated that law enabling the removal of state forest for temporary use should be repealed given the authority should be the State and not the Federation.
  • Adriatic is reviewing this development as regards their Vares Project, which is due to ramp up into 4Q24.
  • Adriatic has previously faced delays from the Federal Ministry for Forestry on the back of ‘political positioning within the governing coalition.’
  • Adriatic interprets the decision as likely delaying ‘the removal of trees on the extended tailings storage facility’ which was due for construction immintently.
  • The current TSF has capacity until 1Q25.
  • The Company is engaging with Government and reviewing the possibility of alternative TSFs within the conession area.

Beowulf Mining* (BEM LN) 30p, Mkt cap £12m – Update to Gállok Iron Ore Project as permitting process accelerates

CLICK FOR PDF

  • Beowulf provides an update on their Gállok/ Kallak Iron Ore Project.
  • The Company will initiate a formal consultation process for their EIA towards the end of the summer.
  • Beowulf will now target the delivery of the Environmental Permit application for Spring 2025.
  • As regards the PFS, the Company expects met test work results within the coming weeks.
  • Infill drilling is expected to begin in Autumn 2024, a slight pushback from original plans to drill this summer.
  • Drilling is planned to upgrade the Inferred resource to Measured and Indicated.
  • Beowulf reports that metallurgy, mineral processing, waste management and other logistical workstreams are near completion.
  • Beowulf expects the PFS to be delivered in 2Q25.

Conclusion: Beowulf provides an updated timeline for their Gállok/ Kallak project development. The delay to PFS delivery reflects the Company’s intentions to focus efforts on the EIA and Environmental Permit discussions, which are crucial for the long-term development potential of the high-grade iron ore project. Drilling is now set to begin in the Autumn which will seek to upgrade the resource to a level suitable for the PFS. We look forward to upcoming metallurgical results as the Company continues to highlight the project’s potential to deliver high-grade concentrate into the rapidly growing green steel sector.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Beowulf Mining

Bushveld Minerals* (BMN LN) 0.7p, Mkt Cap £16m – CEO and Chairman buying shares

  • Craig Coltman (CEO) and Michael Kirkwood (NEC) bought 5.2m shares in the market over last few days.
  • Carig bought 3.2m shares at an average price of ~0.49p for a total of ~£16k.
  • Michael acquired the balance of 2m at 0.45p for a total of £9k.

Conclusion: Seeing management and directors buying shares in the market once close period ends is a positive news with the team aiming to streamline operations at Vametco to take advantage of a potential recovery in vanadium prices.

*SP Angel act as nomad and broker to Bushveld Minerals

Chaarat Gold (CGH LN) 0.3p, Mkt Cap £3.0m – Proposed convertible notes restructuring and delisting

  • The Company proposes a financial restructuring and a delisting from trading on AIM ahead of the General Meeting due 8 August 2024.
  • Restructuring relates to ~$39.5m in outstanding convertible loan facility and accrued interest due 31 July as well as $2.3m owed Labro Investments under a working capital facility.
  • Restructuring involves extension of the maturity date of ~$19.7m in convertibles due from 31 July to 1 December 2025 with an opportunity to draw down on additional $5.0m.
  • Amended facility may be converted into shares at 2p and will bear a 15% interest, down from 20% previously.
  • Conversion of the remaining $19.8m into new shares on the basis of 390 recapitalisation conversion shares per $1 owed implying 0.2p per share conversion price.
  • As a result of conversion free float of the Company will be reduced to 4.3% with convertible noteholders (excluding Martin Andersson and Labro) holding 76.5% and Martin Andersson with Labro holding the balance of 19.2%.
  • Outstanding working capital facility will also be repaid with new shares using same recapitalisation conversion price reducing the free float further down (~4.1%).
  • Directors unanimously recommend to vote in favour of the deal highlighting that should resolutions fail to pass the Company will be forced into insolvency followed by an immediate suspension from trading.

Peak Rare Earths (PEK AU) A$0.18, Mkt cap A$45m – Funding consortium for Ngualla Project

  • Peak reports a non-binding indicative Term Sheet for US$177m worth of debt for Ngualla.
  • Potential lenders include: the Industrial Development Corporation of South Africa Limited, Development Bank of Southern Africa Limited, CRDB Bank PLC Tanzania, NMB Bank PLC Tanzania and an East African commercial bank.
  • The term sheet suggests two-tranche secured project financing with a tenor up to nine years, with a ramp up grace period.
  • The terms are subject to Due Diligence and credit approval.
  • Peak is working on a revised bankable study for a FID in December.
  • Peak is cooperating with Shenge for the project development.

Petra Diamonds (PDL LN) 36.2p, Mkt Cap £66m – FY 2024 revenue recovers as sales rise by 36% to 3.16m carats in a weak market for rough diamonds

  • Petra Diamonds has announced a 13% increase in FY 2024 revenues to US$366m (2023 – US$324m) on sales of 3.16m carats of diamonds (2023 – 2.33m carats).
  • Chief Executive, Richard Duffy, explained that the increased revenue and sales volumes were “driven by Williamson ramping up to steady-state operations and the planned benefit of the delayed sale of the final tender in FY 2023”.
  • He also confirmed that “Annual production was slightly below our revised guidance at 2.73 million carats” while the company confirmed guidance for FYs 2025-2029 showing production increasing from the range 2.8-3.1m carats in 2025 to 3.4-3.7m carats in FYs 2028 and 2029.
  • Mr. Duffy commented that the “Current diamond market weakness is expected to continue through to the end of the calendar year with some price volatility”.
  • He explained that “We expect diamond prices to show modest recovery in the new year with market fundamentals providing pricing support in the medium and longer-term”.

Rio Tinto (RIO LN) – 5,065p, Mkt cap £65bn – H1 operating results leave production guidance largely unchanged

  1. Rio Tinto is maintaining its 2024 production guidance across all commodity groups except alumina after releasing its Q2 operating results.
  2. Alumina production guidance has been reduced to the range 7.0-7.3mt (previously 7.6-7.9mt) “as our Gladstone operations continue to operate at reduced rates following the breakage of a third party gas pipeline in March.
  3. Rio Tinto expresses confidence that “gas supplies from the pipeline … [will] … return to normal levels by the end of 2024.
  4. Commenting on global commodity market influences, Rio Rinto says that the “global economy remains resilient – industrial production is recovering, China’s manufacturing growth is intact and the outlook for the US economy has improved through the year although the company cautions that “Geopolitical tensions and monetary policy settings remain near-term global economic risks”.
  5. Unlike the optimism on the US and Chinese economies the “eurozone economic outlook remains uncertain. The pace of recovery is uneven, with Germany lagging given weakness in its manufacturing sector.
  6. Iron ore production from the Pilbara operations in WA amounted to 67.5mt during Q2 bringing H1 output to 133.6mt, 2% lower than H1 2023 and keeping the 2024 guidance range of 323-338mt intact.
  7. Iron ore production cost guidance also remains unchanged in the range US$21.75-23.50/t although the company says that “Pilbara iron ore unit cash costs in the first half of 2024 are expected to be towards the top end of the full year guidance range, with shipments weighted to the second half.
  8. Also today, Rio Tinto has announced that the US$11.2bn Simandou iron-ore project in Guinea (Rio Tinto share US$6.2bn) has now met all the required conditions and the “transaction is expected to complete during the week of 15 July 2024 and that “First production from the Simfer mine is expected in 2025, ramping up over 30 months to an annualised capacity of 60 million tonnes per year”.
  9. Mined copper production of 171,000t during the quarter brings the H1 total to 327,00t and helps maintain annual guidance at 660-720,000t.
  10. H1 copper Production at Kennecott of 95,300t was 64% higher than the level achieved in 2023 when a conveyor failure disrupted output.  Rio Tinto also explains that it is “currently reworking our mine plan … [for Kennecott’s operations] … and expect to provide a further update in our Third Quarter Operations Review”.
  11. Mined copper operations at Escondida benefitted from higher grades of 0.99% (Q2 2023 – 0.93%).
  12. Underground operations at at Oyu Tolgoi “continue to see good performance” with the ramp-up “on track to reach 500 thousand tonnes of copper production per annum … for the Oyu Tolgoi underground and open pit mines for the years 2028 to 2036.
  13. “Bauxite production of 14.7 million tonnes was 9% higher than the second quarter of 2023”  bringing H1 production to 28.1mt, 10% higher thanH1 2023.
  14. Guidance for 2024 bauxite output is maintained and is “expected to be around the top end of our 53 to 56 million tonne range.
  15. H1 alumina production of 3.54mt was impacted by gas supply disruption but Rio Tinto confirms that “supplies are currently meeting ~90% of our requirements and are expected to return to normal levels by the end of 2024.
  16. Rio Tinto’s exploration projects cover 8 commodities across 18 countries is focussed on “copper in Chile, Kazakhstan and Serbia, nickel in Brazil and Canada, lithium in Canada, US, Chile, Rwanda and Australia, potash in Canada and heavy mineral sands (HMS) in South Africa and Rwanda”.
  17. The company says that its “Nuevo Cobre joint venture copper project in Chile continues to make good progress, with geological field programs, environmental studies and community engagement ongoing.

Conclusion: Rio Tinto is maintaining its 2024 production guidance across most of its commodity groups with the company emphasising the stability of its operations. The company notes the resilience of the Chinese economy and continuing improvements in the US but comment on uneven performance in the Eurozone with Germany’s manufacturing sector remaining weak.

Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) 0.2p, Mkt Cap £4m – Retirement of Chairman

  • Strategic Minerals reports that its Chairman, Alan Broome, is to retire after nine years service.
  • The company also announces the proposed appointment of Jonathon (Jon) Reynolds as independent Technical Non-Executive Director and hopes to complete this appointment by “the end of August 2024”.
  • Mr. Reynolds is described as a geologist with “over 38 years’ experience in the mining industry … [diverse] … experience in nickel, copper, gold, uranium, mineral sands, iron ore, graphite and coal. He has worked on projects in Australia, South America, Africa, Europe, Central and South-East Asia”.
  • He was previously Managing Director of ASX listed exploration company, Boadicea Resources.
  • Strategic Minerals also confirms that it “anticipates the appointment of a further, UK based, independent technical Non-Executive Director”.
  • Managing Director, John Peters, who will assume Chairmanship of the company in an interim capacity pending appointment of Mr. Broome’s successor, said that Mr. Reynolds’ “significant technical experience will help drive the development of our projects”.
  • Mr. Peters also expressed appreciation of Mr. Broome’s “significant contributions over the years, especially recently, when he agreed to defer all his director’s fees to allow the Company to progress”.

Conclusion: Strategic Minerals implementation of senior leadership changes should refresh the Board and provide new perspectives on the project portfolio.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Strategic Minerals

No.1 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Quarterly Starmine Award for Reuters Polls Q1 2024

No.1 in Copper:  “The winner of the 2020 Fastmarkets Apex contest for copper was the team at SP Angel comprising John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore, with an accuracy score of 93.8%”

No1. In Gold:  “SP Angel’s trio took the top spot for the gold price prediction throughout the year, with an accuracy score of 97.59%”

The SP Angel team also ranked 1st in Palladium, 3rd in Tin and 5th in Silver in the fourth quarter of 2020

Analysts

John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

SP Angel                                                            

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street London

W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

Sources of commodity prices  
Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London)
Gold ETFs, Steel Bloomberg
Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt LME
Oil Brent ICE
Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore NYMEX
Thermal Coal Bloomberg OTC Composite
Coking Coal SSY
RRE Steelhome

Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, Rutile Asian Metal

DISCLAIMER

This note is a marketing communication and comprises non-independent research. This means it has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination.

This note is intended only for distribution to Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties as defined under the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority and is not directed at Retail Clients.

This note is confidential and is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published in whole or in part, for any purpose.

This note has been issued by SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP (‘SPA’) to promote its investment services. Neither the information nor the opinions expressed herein constitutes, or is to be construed as, an offer or invitation or other solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell investments. The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is wholly accurate or complete. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to change without notice. It is not investment advice and does not take into account the investment objectives and policies, financial position or portfolio composition of any recipient. SPA is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. Where the subject of the research is a client company of SPA we may have shown a draft of the research (or parts of it) to the company prior to publication to check factual accuracy, soundness of assumptions etc.

Distribution of this note does not imply distribution of future notes covering the same issuers, companies or subject matter.

Where the investment is traded on AIM it should be noted that liquidity may be lower and price movements more volatile.

SPA, its partners, officers and/or employees may own or have positions in any investment(s) mentioned herein or related thereto and may, from time to time add to, or dispose of, any such investment(s).

SPA is registered in England and Wales with company number OC317049.  The registered office address is Prince Frederick House, 35-39 Maddox Street, London W1S 2PP.  SPA is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange plc.

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SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return


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