SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Tuesday 15th July 2025

Chinese lithium producers issue profit warnings as prices remain subdued on over-supply

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

80 Mile Plc* (80M LN) – NED appointment

Almonty Industries Inc (AII CN) – Almonty raises US$90m alongside concurrent listing on Nasdaq

Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) – BUY, TP 316p (from 308p) – Stable production in 2Q25 with strong 2H25 reiterated

Atalaya Mining (ATYM LN) – Q2 production keeps Atalaya on track to achieve 2025 guidance

B2 Gold (BTO CN) – PFS results for Gramalote Project, Colombia

Collective Mining (CNL CN) –380m at 2.6g/t AuEq intersected at Apollo, Colombia

Mako Mining (MKO CN) – Q2 Production data from Nicaragua and Arizona

Many Peaks (MPK AU) – Mineralisation extended at Ferké, Cote D’Ivoire

Panther Metals (PALM LN) – Tailings sampling programme at the Winston Project, Ontario

Rio Tinto (RIO LN) – Head of iron-ore business appointed new CEO

The Future of Mining: Gold, Copper, Rare Earths & M&A IGTV: Monday 14 July 2025:  https://youtu.be/-G59iOq6x2c?si=z4fVkyHNP9isbOTB

Chinese lithium producers issue profit warnings as prices remain subdued on over-supply

• Ganfeng shares fell 7% this morning, before paring some losses, after it reported expectations of a net loss of CNY300-500m for 1H25.
• Tianqi also down on net income projection of CNY155m, whilst Chengxin expects net losses of CNY850m over the half year.
• Ganfeng notes oversupply as the primary reason and also reported various impairment charge expectations on inventories. (Bloomberg)
• Tianqi reported progress in inventory levels.
• Lithium prices have fallen c.20% ytd, although there have been some green shoots over the past fortnight.
• This was triggered by Beijing’s wider plans to reign in oversupply in China’s upstream industries, also boosting sentiment in the steelmaking sector.

• Chinese lithium chemical prices are showing signs of recovery with China Inc threatening to consolidate production to avert excessive and ‘disorderly’ competition.
• Lithium Hydroxide (56.5%) prices have fallen to $8/kg from $12/kg a year ago (CIF China)
• Lithium Carbonate (99.5%) prices have recently picked up a smidgeon to $8.05/kg from 13/kg yoy (FOB China)
• Spodumene concentrate (6%) prices have picked up from a low of $610/t to $800/t and from ~$1,000/t a year ago (CIF China)

Lockheed Martin to revisit seabed mining

• Lockheed Martin are in discussion with a number of mining companies to access and work a number of seabed licenses in the Pacific Ocean.
• The idea is to collect polymetallic nodules which rest on the ocean floor and within the silt.
• Over a billion tonnes of high-grade nodules are estimated to be accessible containing copper, manganese, nickel, cobalt and a host of other minerals.
• The International Seabed Authority are meeting in July in Jamaca to discuss conditions for mining.
• Nautilus Minerals developed machinery and techniques for the mining of dead black smokers, hydrothermal vents around PNG in ~2km of water.
• The company failed to demonstrate a robust and economic method of lifting heavy mineral concentrates the 2km from the seafloor.
• Nautilus’ first iteration was to use an air-lift technique which is not appropriate for lifting the required tonnages of heavy minerals in our view.
• Their second iteration was to use multiple pumping stages along the lifting pipe. We suspect this would have been problematic.
• A simple winch and bucket lift is probably the best way to go and should work reasonably well with polymetallic nodules in our view.
• Nautilus attracted a degree of environmental opposition when it was discovered that non-active hydrothermal vents were still teeming with marine life despite a lack of hydrothermal activity.

Economics

China – 2Q25 GDP came ahead of expectations with industrial production growing stronger than expected but retail sales and property market disappoint.

• Front loading by exporters and robust shipments ex US helped growth numbers.
• Markets to watch 2H25 closely and monitor the effect of US tariffs and sluggish domestic demand on the economy.
• More calls for monetary/fiscal stimulus are likely to come.
• GDP (%yoy, 2Q/1Q/Est): 5.2%/5.4%/5.1%
• Retail Sales (%yoy, 2Q/1Q/Est): 4.8%/6.4%/5.3%
• Industrial Production (%yoy, 2Q/1Q/Est): 6.4%/6.3%/6.2%
• FAI (YTD%, 2Q/1Q/Est): 2.8%/3.7%/3.6%
• Property Investment (YTD%, 2Q/1Q/Est): -11.2%/-10.7%/-10.9%
• Residential Property Sales (YTD%, 2Q/1Q/Est): -5.2%/-2.8%/NA

Nvidia is to resume sales of its H20 AI chips in China securing approvals from the US government.

• The reversal comes following negotiations with China is likely to be part of agreements reached earlier this year.
• Nvidia designed the less advanced H20 chips to comply with earlier China trade limitations developed by the US administration.
• Previously, Trump team insisted that controls on Nvidia’s H20 chips were not up for discussion.

EU – The EU finalised a second list of countermeasures targeting US goods worth €72bn including Boeing aircrafts, autos and bourbon if the US implements new trade barriers.

Australia – potential plan for inland sea – should Australia revisit the idea of an inland sea

• Currencies

US$1.1692/eur vs 1.1683/eur previous. Yen 147.72/$ vs 147.35/$. SAr 17.800/$ vs 17.880/$. $1.345/gbp vs $1.348/gbp. 0.656/aud vs 0.658/aud. CNY 7.174/$ vs 7.189/$

Dollar Index 97.99 vs 97.89 previous

Precious metals:         

Gold US$3,363/oz vs US$3,372/oz previous

Gold ETFs 91.0moz vs 91.0moz previous

Platinum US$1,381/oz vs US$1,462/oz previous

Palladium US$1,197/oz vs US$1,312/oz previous

Silver US$38.4/oz vs US$39.4/oz previous

Rhodium US$5,700/oz vs US$5,700/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$9,623/t vs US$9,664/t previous

Aluminium US$2,595/t vs US$2,585/t previous

Nickel US$15,000/t vs US$15,202/t previous

Zinc US$2,708/t vs US$2,736/t previous

Lead US$1,988/t vs US$2,015/t previous

Tin US$33,275/t vs US$33,666/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$68.7/bbl vs US$71.2/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices eased after Trump set a 50-day deadline for Russia to resolve the Ukraine war, alleviating near-term supply fears as the market weighs the chance of a TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) outcome.

Natural Gas €35.1/MWh vs €35.7/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $72.3/lb vs $73.8/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (cfr Dalian) US$106.6/t vs US$104.6/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$459.2/t vs US$458.3/t

HCC FOB Australia US$178.0/t vs US$177.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$113.8/t vs US$113.0/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$33,335/t vs US$33,335/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$66,209/t vs US$63,263/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$8,851/t vs US$8,723/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$700/t vs US$680/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$995/t vs US$995/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$433/mtu vs US$433/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$410/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.0/lb vs US$5.0/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.8/kg vs US$24.0/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$289/t vs US$289/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,094/t vs US$1,094/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$362.5/t vs US$362.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$2,925.0/kg vs US$2,925.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

Company News

80 Mile Plc* (80M LN) – 0.27p, Mkt cap £11m – NED appointment

(80 Mile holds 49% of Hydrogen Valley which owns the Ferrandina Plant in Italy with an option to move to 100% for an aggregate £6.05m in either cash or shares over two years.)

(80 Mile also holds of White Flame Energy, 100% of the Hammaslahti and Enonkoski projects and all its Greenland prospects)

• 80 Mile Plc have appointed Ingo Hofmaier to the board as an NED.
• Hofmaier is currently CFO at Lifezone Metals which is providing input into the Kabanga Nickel project in the West of Tanzania.
• Ingo was formerly CEO at Omico Mining and CFO at SolGold.
• Hofmier previously advised the company when it was known as Bluejay Mining.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to 80 Mile Plc (formerly Bluejay Mining). The analyst has visited Dundas in Greenland.

Almonty Industries Inc (AII CN) C$6.52, Mkt cap C$1.25bn – Almonty raises US$90m alongside concurrent listing on Nasdaq

• Tungsten producer, Almonty Industries announced yesterday that its NASDAQ listing had raised US$90m via the placing of 20m shares at a price of US$4.50/share.
• Welcoming the outcome of what he described as “our oversubscribed public offering, which concurrently marks our uplisting to the Nasdaq … [CEO, Lewis Black, said that the additional funds will support] … the development of our Sangdong tungsten oxide facility” in South Korea.
• Earlier this month, Almonty Industries filed its NI43-101 compliant ‘Technical Report on the Mineral Resources and Reserves of the Sangdong Project, South Korea.
• The 4th July press release concerning the Technical Report confirms that “the current mine and processing plant construction of Phase I of the Sangdong Mine is expected to begin production in the second half of 2025”.
• “Once fully operational, the targeted ore throughput capacity is expected to reach around 640,000 tons per year. The Company expects to increase its throughput capacity up to 1.2 million tons through the Phase II planned expansion … [which] … could be advanced as early as 2026”.
• The 4^th July announcement confirms the priority that Almonty Industries gives to the Sangdong project but states that it “remains engaged in the operation and development of other mineral properties, including the Panasqueira Mine (Portugal) and the Sangdong Molybdenum Project (South Korea)”.
• China dominates world tungsten supply controlling with over 80% of the global market resulting in tungsten being classified as a critical mineral in jurisdictions including the US, EU, UK, Canada, Australia, Brazil, South Korea, India and Japan.

Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) 175p, Mkt Cap £200m – Stable production in 2Q25 with strong 2H25 reiterated

BUY – 316p (from 308p)

• The Company reported 2Q25 production at its gold/copper operations in Azerbaijan.
• Production was 8.3koz GEOs (2Q24: 2.7koz) including:

• • 6.1koz gold (2Q24: 2.4koz);
  • 0.7kt copper (2Q24: -);
  • 32koz silver (2Q24: 6koz).

• Production benefited from all processing facilities up and running compared to 2Q24 when agitation leaching (AGL) and flotation (FLO) circuits were temporarily suspended.
• AGL treated 155kt at 1.13g/t delivering 3.9koz (2Q24: offline).
• FLO processed 166kt at 0.24g/t and 0.54% producing 0.5koz and 0.6kt (2Q24: offline).
• Heap leaching treated 133kt at 0.4g/t delivering 1.7koz (2Q24: 2.4koz).
• Bullion sales (post PSA) 5.0koz at $3,299/oz (2Q24: 2.1koz at $2,350/oz).
• Copper/gold concentrate sales (post PSA) generated $6.3m (2Q24: $1.0m).
• Closing cash balance stood at $11.1m with outstanding debt (ex leases) at $24.1m (1Q25: $12.4m and $26.2m).
• Net debt (ex leases) $13.0m (1Q25: $13.8m) is post $3.8m in capex at Demirli spent in 2Q25.
• Gilar commissioned in May delivered ~107kt at 1.23g/t and 0.84% during the quarter.
• Development works at Demirli are steadily progressing towards start of production later this year.
• FY25 guidance (ex Demirli) reiterated at 28-33koz gold and 6.5-6.8kt copper implying ~52koz GEOs mid range (at $2,800/oz and $9,000/t).

Conclusion: Stable production reported at Gedabek through 2Q25 with gold/copper output to pick up through 2H25 led by recently commissioned higher grade Gilar underground operation. Given no change to FY25 (ex Demirli) production guidance (28-33koz and 6.5-6.7kt) operations are expected to deliver ~16koz and ~5.3kt in 2H25 to hit lower end of the forecast range (1H25: 12koz, 1.2kt). We have adjusted our production profile accordingly. 2Q25 saw improved free cash generation (ex Demirli growth capex), a reflection of higher commodity prices. 2H25 is set to be significantly better supported by higher production and strong gold/copper prices. Next major catalyst would be guidance on Demirli commissioning timing and ramp up schedule as the team adds another producing asset to the portfolio with ~18ktpa (17ktpa payable) in copper production. Majority of upwards revision is related to the advance in the discounting date by six months increasing the weighting of first Demirli cash flows in our NPV. We reiterate our BUY recommendation with an updated target price of 316p (up from 308p).

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker for Anglo Asian Mining

Atalaya Mining (ATYM LN) 475p, Mkt Cap £669m – Q2 production keeps Atalaya on track to achieve 2025 guidance

• Releasing its Q2 production performance for the 3 months to 30^th June, Atalaya Mining confirms that it remains on course to meet its full year production guidance for the production of 48-52,000t of copper in concentrate at a cash cost of US$2.70-2.90/lb and between US$3.20-3.40/lb on an all-in-sustaining cost basis.
• A total of ~3.5mt of ore mined during the quarter (Q1 2024 – 3.7mt) brings the total for H1 to ~7.2mt with waste of 12.6mt bringing the total at the mid-point of the year to ~23.9mt of waste representing an average stripping ratio of :3.3:1.
• Processing of 4.0mt of ore (Q2 2024 – 4.1mt) brings the year-to-date total to 8.2mt, comfortably on track to meet the upper end of the full year guidance of 15.5-15.8mt. We note that both the performance and throughput guidance continues to comfortably exceed the plant’s 15mtpa nameplate capacity.
• The grade of ore processed during the quarter at 0.43% copper showed a significant improvement over the 0.33% achieved in Q2 2024 delivering overall copper production of 13,175t for the quarter and 27,466t in the year-to-date indicating that the upper end of the guidance range for the full year remains a realistic objective.
• Recovery rates declined during the quarter to 76.75% from 80.98% during Q1 and 85.81% in Q2 2024 with Atalya Mining clarifying that this reflects “the characteristics of certain ores, however, this material contributed much higher grades than the average plant feed during the Period”.
• Sales of copper in concentrate amounted to 14,024t during the quarter reducing on-site inventories by ~5kt to ~10kt.
• Today’s announcement describes the operational progress of plans to feed some higher-grade ore to the process plant at Proyecto Riotinto with material from the nearby San Dionisio deposit with Environmental Approval to expand mining at San Dionisio awarded in May.
• The company confirms that during the quarter “waste stripping activities continued at San Dionisio with total material mined of 1.0 million tonnes, and in H2 2025, mining activities are expected to accelerate”.
• “At San Antonio, the polymetallic deposit located immediately east of the Cerro Colorado pit … [at Riotinto] … an infill and step-out drilling programme began in June”.
• As previously reported, today’s announcement also confirms the continuing drilling at Masa Valverde, located around 28km south of the company’s 15mtpa processing plant at Proyecto Riotinto.
• Drilling has identified “stockwork-style mineralisation, which is expected to be amenable for processing at the existing Riotinto facilities” as part of the wider strategy of lifting annual copper production without additional capital expenditure by substituting lower grade feed to the Riotinto plant with higher grade material from neighbouring deposits.
• The company’s website shows a ‘Measured and Indicated’ resource of 16.9mt at an average grade of 0.66% copper, 1.55% zinc, 0.64% lead, 0.55g/t gold and 27g/t silver within an overall ‘Measured, Indicated & Inferred’ resource of 90.3mt at an average grade of 0.62% copper, 1.30% zinc, 0.62% lead, 0.61g/t gold and 29g/t silver at the Masa Valverde/Majadales deposit.
• In northern Spain, the Xunta de Galicia has declared the Touro project “a strategic industrial project … [which, as Atalaya Mining explains, simplifies] … the administrative procedures associated with the development of industrial projects and intends to substantially reduce permitting timelines”.
• CEO, Alberto Lavandeira, welcomed the actions of the Galicia administration and commented that the company is “confident that we will achieve a positive outcome for this potential new source of copper in Europe”.

Conclusion: At the mid-point of Atalaya Mining remains on course to achieve the upper part of current production guidance while continuing to progress its wider strategy of increasing copper output at Proyecto Riotinto, at minimal additional capital cost, by feeding higher grade ore from neighbouring deposits into its 15mtpa plant.

B2 Gold (BTO CN) C$4.8, Mkt Cap C$6.3bn – PFS results for Gramalote Project, Colombia

• Diversified Canadian gold producer B2 reports PFS results for their Gramalote Project.
• B2 Gold acquired a 50% stake in the asset from AngloGold Ashanti in 2023.
• Operations:

• • 13 Year LOM, processing 6mtpa at LOM grade of 0.96g/t Au
  • Recoveries of 95.7% Au
  • Producing 177kozpa over LOM at AISC of $985/oz.
  • Reserves: 76.7mt at 0.96g/t Au for 2.4moz.

• Operating Costs:

• • Mining: $2.7/t
  • Processing: $8.2/t
  • G&A: $3.6/t.

• Economics:

• • CAPEX $740m
  • SUSEX: $444m
  • Post-tax NPV5: $941m at $2,500/oz Au for IRR of 22.4%
  • NPV5 at $3,300/oz at $1.7bn for IRR of 33.5%.

• B2Gold expects permits will require modification to reflect the reduced scale of the project, expected to take 12-18 months.

Collective Mining (CNL CN) C$14, Mkt Cap C$1.2bn –380m at 2.6g/t AuEq intersected at Apollo, Colombia

• Collective, who are exploring at the Apollo Gold Project, Colombia, report assay results.
• Collective has defined mineralisation over 1,200m vertical, remaining open at depth.
• The Company is currently drilling 70,000m over 2025 across seven rigs.
• 129.500m have been drilled across the wider Guayabales Project, with 91,000m drilled at Apollo.
• Highlights today include:

• • APC-122: 398m at 2.62g/t AuEq from surface
  • APC-119: 151m at 2.06g/t AuEq from surface
  • APC-116: 74m at 1.69g/t AuEq from 7.3m downhole
  • APC-118: 73m at 2g/t AuEq from 15m
  • APC-121: 68m at 1.58g/t AuEq from 43m

• Apollo is hosted within a large breccia system, with the Company planning to build two 3lm and 4km access tunnels to accelerate drilling at depth.
• Apollo is chaired by Ari Sussman who sold Continental Gold in Colombia to Zijin.

Mako Mining (MKO CN) C$5.5, Mkt Cap A$440m – Q2 Production data from Nicaragua and Arizona

• Mako reports operational results from its two operations.
• San Albino, Nicaragua:

• • 54.4kt mined, 53kt milled at 80% recoveries for 9koz AuEq, selling 10.1koz over the quarter.

• Moss Mine:

• • Sold 1.4koz from residual leaching activities.
  • Mako aiming to restart mining operations in 3Q25, aiming to hit steady state production by year-end.

• Eagle Mountain project:

• • Aiming to submit the draft EIS to the EPA in 2H25.
  • Currently completing water resource management studies for environmental modelling.
  • Submitted the Environmental Application and project Summary Documents to the Guyana EPA in March.

• Cash balance at $29m.

Many Peaks (MPK AU) A$0.83, Mkt Cap A$80m – Mineralisation extended at Ferké, Cote D’Ivoire

• Many Peaks, who are exploring in Cote D’Ivoire, report drilling results from seven diamond holes at the Ferke Gold Project.
• The Company reports that drilling has shown extensions to mineralisation both along strike and at depth.
• Company reiterates the Ferke Project holds the potential for bulk tonnage operations.
• Highlights include:

• • FNDC038: 87m at 1.67g/t Au from 221m
  • FNDC039: 55m at 1.94g/t Au from 68m
  • FNDC040: 85m at 1.53g/t Au from 58m
  • FNDC041: 89m at 0.92g/t Au from surface
  • FNDC044: 11m at 0.87g/t Au from 191m
• The Company has now drilled 41 diamond holes over 11,200m since April, with 5,800m pending.
• RC reconnaissance drilling is ongoing with 3,300m completed and assay results due.
• Management highlights hole FNDC041, which highlighted a ‘26% increase over the previously interpreted width’ of the mineralised intrusion.

Panther Metals (PALM LN) 62.5p , Mkt Cap £3.4m – Tailings sampling programme at the Winston Project, Ontario

• Panther Metals reports that it has started a sampling programme on tailings generated from the historic Winston Lake gold mine in Ontario.
• The mine, which operated between 1988-1998 is reported to have produced around 3.3mt of ore “yielding zinc, copper, silver, and gold”.
• In an RNS announcement in June, Panther Metals said that the previous production had “an average head grade of 14.6% Zn, 1.0% Cu, 32.2g/t Ag and 1.4g/t Au”.
• The company says that “Based on historic recoveries from mining activities in the 1980s and 1990s, it is believed that a significant quantity of valuable material remains in the tailing storage facility”.
• The sampling programme aims to help “Assess the financial potential of tailings reprocessing to enhance project economics … [and] … Evaluate the opportunity to add to the operational life of the Winston Project”.
• Commenting on the planned tailings sampling programme CEO, Darren Hazelwood, said that it “is the first step in adding significant value to the Winston Project”.
• He said that “we believe there is a strong opportunity that the metal contained on the mine tailings could nearly double the known resource base at Winston – while also addressing legacy environmental impacts”.

Rio Tinto (RIO LN) – 4,431p, Mkt cap £56bn – Head of iron-ore business appointed new CEO

1. Rio Tinto has announced the appointment of Simon Trott, currently head of the iron-ore business, as its new CEO succeeding Jakob Stausholm.
2. Mr Trott, who will assume the role on 25^th August, is described as previously “Rio Tinto’s first Chief Commercial Officer … [with] …  a track record of exceptional delivery over 25 years in roles across a wide range of commodities and geographies, with a strong focus on values-based performance culture and strengthening partnerships with stakeholders”.
3. Pending the appointment of a replacement for Mr. Trott to head the iron-ore business, “Matt Holcz, currently Managing Director, Pilbara Mines at Rio Tinto, will be providing interim support in the Chief Executive Iron Ore role until a permanent appointment is made”.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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