SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Tuesday 15th April 2025

Gold edges higher as US Treasury sell-off cools and dollar remains under pressure

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Atalaya Mining (ATYM LN) – Q1 delivers highest quarterly production for over three years

Beowulf Mining* (BEM LN) – Financial statement amid ongoing capital raise

Caledonia Mining (CMCL LN) – Record Q1 gold production from the Blanket mine, Zimbabwe,

Greatland Gold (GGP LN) – Reserve update for Telfer drives increased 2 year production outlook

Prospect Resources (PSC AU) – A$15.2m investment from First Quantum to progress Mumbezhi

Oriole Resources* (ORR LN) – Further wide gold intercepts at Mbe

Robex Resources (RBX CN) – Potential A$120m raise in the ASX IPO

Tesoro Gold (TSO AU) SUSPENDED – Trading halt pending capital raise

WIA Gold* (WIA AU) – Drilling results show potential to expand and upgrade Kokoseb MRE

Wishbone Gold (WSBN LN) – Operational restructuring and strengthening of WA management

Gold (3,228/oz) edges higher as US Treasury sell-off cools and dollar remains under pressure

• Gold has held the gains it made on Friday, when it jumped sharply from <$3,000/oz to $3,246/oz.
• The move followed ongoing concerns over the US Treasury market, which was selling off despite cooler CPI data and weaker labour readings.
• Reports of the Czech central bank further boosting holdings, alongside higher gold import quotas from Beijing to Chinese banks marks a continuation of the supportive themes of 2024.
• With central banks sustaining buying, gold’s next leg higher is being supported by incremental purchases from the investment community.
• This is being reflected in ETF holdings, which have climbed again to 89.1moz vs 88.7moz yesterday. We emphasise this remains well below highs reached in 2020 and 2022 levels.
• Additionally, concerns over another Yuan devaluation are also supporting Asian buying, with Chinese investors looking to protect their capital in an environment of slumping property values, equity volatility and deflation.
• Gold miners are enjoying a perfect storm of higher gold prices and lower oil/inflation levels.
• This is being reflected in the Van Eck Miners ETF, up 41% ytd vs gold price up 23%.
• Elsewhere, Gold Fields have been told to stop operating at its Ghanaian Damang Mine after the government rejected their mining lease application. The mine accounted or 6% of GFI’s total output last year.

Economics

US – Equity futures climb as President Trump said it would look into possible temporary exemptions to his imported autos and parts tariffs.

• The news may bring a temporary relief to automakers but adds further uncertainty and makes it challenging for manufacturers to develop investment plans.
• US automakers have been lobbying the government to exclude a number of car components from planned tariffs.
• They argued that increased costs for parts would lead to profit warnings and layoffs that would go in contrast to Trump plans to grow US auto manufacturing.
• President Trump also said is looking to announce tariffs on pharmaceutical goods in the “not too distant future”.
• On a separate note, NY Fed study on 1y inflation expectations showed a further increase.
• The data follows on similar surveys carried by University of Michigan pointing to strengthening inflation expectations over 1y and 5-10y horizon, according to numbers released last week.
• NY Fed 1y Inflation Expectations (Mar/Feb/Est): 3.58%/3.13%/3.26%
• UoM 1y Inflation Expectations (Apr/Mar/Est): 6.7%/5.0%/5.2%
• UoM 5-10y Inflation Expectations (Apr/Mar/Est): 4.4%/4.1%/4.3%

Boeing shares drop premarket after Beijing orders its airlines to pause deliveries of the Company’s jets. (Bloomberg)

• Authorities have also asked that Chinese carriers halt any purchases of aircraft-related equipment and parts from US companies.
• The stock is down 2.5% this morning.

UK – Employment dropped the most since the start of the pandemic ahead of new payroll taxes and US tariffs in March.

• Vacancies, a proxy for labour demand, slipped below pre-pandemic levels for the first time since 2021 in 1Q25.
• Vacancies fell781k in the three months to March, down 26k from 4Q24.
• The data highlights challenges for economic outlook amid increases in minimum wages and NI contributions that came into effect in April.
• Employment Change (Mar/Feb/Est): -78k/-8k(revised from 21k)/-15k
• Av Weekly Earnings (3M, Feb/Jan/Est): 5.6%/5.6%(revised from 5.8%)/5.7%
• Av Weekly Earnings ex Bonus (3M, Feb/Jan/Est): 5.9%/5.8%(revised from 5.9%)/6.0%

Currencies

US$1.1333/eur vs 1.1396/eur previous. Yen 143.44/$ vs 142.76/$. SAr 18.806/$ vs 18.927/$. $1.321/gbp vs $1.316/gbp. 0.637/aud vs         0.633/aud. CNY 7.313/$ vs 7.304/$.

Dollar Index 99.786 vs 99.443 previous.

Precious metals:         

Gold US$3,219/oz vs US$3,229/oz previous

Gold ETFs 89.1moz vs 88.7moz previous

Platinum US$959/oz vs US$958/oz previous

Palladium US$956/oz vs US$937/oz previous

Silver US$32.4/oz vs US$32.3/oz previous

Rhodium US$5,450/oz vs US$5,450/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$9,234/t vs US$9,216/t previous

Aluminium US$2,390/t vs US$2,401/t previous

Nickel US$15,635/t vs US$15,390/t previous

Zinc US$2,646/t vs US$2,663/t previous

Lead US$1,929/t vs US$1,923/t previous

Tin US$31,410/t vs US$31,725/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$65.3/bbl vs US$64.9/bbl previous

• OPEC’s April monthly oil report revised global oil demand forecasts by 0.1mb/d lower m/m to 1.3mb/d growth in both 2025 and 2026, due to received data for 1Q25 and the expected impact on oil demand of US tariffs, with liquids supply growth also revised down by the same quantum to 0.9mb/d in each year.

Natural Gas €34.3/MWh vs €34.3/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $64.4/lb vs $64.4/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (China CFR) US$99.8/t vs US$99.3/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$444.0/t vs US$467.2/t

HCC FOB Australia US$184.0/t vs US$184.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$99.0/t vs US$99.0/t

Other:

Cobalt LME 3m US$33,700/t vs US$33,700/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$58,666/t vs US$58,602/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$9,531/t vs US$9,584/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$805/t vs US$805/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,005/t vs US$1,005/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$358/mtu vs US$358/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$430/t vs US$430/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.1/lb vs US$5.1/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.1/kg vs US$24.1/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$284/t vs US$284/t

Global Rutile Spot Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,506/t vs US$1,506/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$350.0/t vs US$350.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$2,825.0/kg vs US$2,825.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$390.0/kg vs US$390.0/kg

Battery News

Nissan to cut production of top-selling US model due to tariffs

• Nissan will be the latest automaker to alter production plans in response to US import tariffs.
• The automaker has announced that it will cut Japanese production of its best selling US model.
• Nissan has been more effected than most – the US is its top market, accounting for more than 25% of the vehicles sold last year, with the majority of those made in Japan or Mexico.

CATL report fastest profit growth in nearly two years

• EV battery giant CATL’s Q1 net profit grew at its fastest rate, while a rise in revenue ended five straight quarters of decline.
• Net profit rose 32.9% yoy to $1.9bn.
• CATL are still looking to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with the company reportedly aiming to raise $5bn.
• In late March, the battery maker said the China Securities Regulator had approved the plan.
• It has also been reported that CATL are in reports to buy a controlling stake in EV maker Nio’s power unit.

Company News

 Atalaya Mining (ATYM LN) 349.5p, Mkt Cap £469m – Q1 delivers highest quarterly production for over three years

• Atalaya Mining reports production of 14,291t of copper in the 3 months to 31^st March (Q1 2024 – 10,666t).
• Production reflects the processing of 4.2mt of ore at an average grade of 0.42% copper (Q1 2024 – 3.7mt at a grade of 0.34% copper).
• The company is maintaining its full year 2025 guidance of 48-52,000t of copper output while confirming that production is expected to be “weighted slightly towards H1 2025”.
• Annual cost guidance in the range US$2.70-2.90/lb on a cash basis and of US$3.20-3.40 on an all-in-sustaining cost basis also remains intact.
• The increased plant throughput reflects “minimal downtime” and Atalaya Mining advises that during “Q2 2025, the Company expects to complete a SAG mill liner change which will result in lower quarterly throughput”.
• Atalaya Mining explains that “On-site copper concentrate inventories were 19,031 tonnes at 31 March 2025 (31 December 2024: 21,815 tonnes). Nearly all of the concentrate inventories as at 31 December 2024 were sold during Q1 2025 and the Company expects to reduce the current concentrate inventory balance to normalised levels during Q2 2025”.
• CEO, Alberto Lavandeira, explained that the Q1 2025 operational performance was “our best quarter in over three years … thanks to higher grades and good plant performance”.
• He confirmed that Atalaya Mining’s “operations are performing well, physical copper market strength persists and we are optimistic on several pending catalysts across our asset portfolio”.
• He also explained that “we are well-positioned to execute on our near-term growth strategy, including in the Riotinto District and at Proyecto Touro, where we are advancing plant engineering work”.
• Expanding on Proyecto Touro, in Galicia, Mr. Lavandeira described it as an “attractive project that could deliver substantial new investment to Galicia while also contributing to European Union objectives in relation to boosting domestic supply of strategic raw materials like copper”.

Conclusion: Atalaya Mining has made a positive start to 2025 delivering the highest quarterly output for more than three years.  Although Q2 will include planned plant maintenance Atalaya remains on track to achieve full year guidance of  48-52,000t of copper production at a lower cash cost of US$2.70-2.90/lb.

Beowulf Mining* (BEM LN) 13p, Mkt cap £5m– Financial statement amid ongoing capital raise

• Swedish high-grade iron ore developer Beowulf reports their statement of financial position at end of February 2025.
• The Company is currently in the process of publishing a prospectus regarding its ongoing Capital Raise and Rights Issue.
• The accounts show net cash of $260k.
• The placing has conditionally raised gross proceeds of £1m, SDR rights issue, if fully subscribed, will raise £3m before fees at 11p and SEK1.4 respectively.
• The retail offer is targeting £0.7m raised before costs.
• Potential maximum gross proceeds to raise £4.6m, with the Rights Issue receiving underwriting commitments of £1.21m.
• Beowulf is also entering into a bridging loan with their Underwriters for £760k.

Conclusion: Beowulf is in the process of derisking and progressing their high-grade Fe concentrate mine, Kallak, alongside the outlined roadmap for the GAMP project in Sweden. Funds raised from the ongoing capital raise will be used to deliver the PFS for Kallak.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Beowulf Mining

Caledonia Mining (CMCL LN) 985p, Mkt Cap £189m – Record Q1 gold production from the Blanket mine, Zimbabwe,

• Caledonia Mining reports record Q1 production of 18,671oz of gold at its Blanket gold mine in Zimbabwe surpassing the previous record of 18,515oz set in Q1 2022.
• The production reflects the processing of 201,755t of ore described as “23,793 tonnes (13.4%) above expectation” although at this stage the company has not stated the grade.
• A clue to the strength of the performance is also implied in the company’s comment that the “surface stockpile increased significantly to approximately 15,000 tonnes as run-of-mine production exceeds milling capacity”.
• Under these circumstances, with around 25% of its full year production achieved in Q1, it is unsurprising that Caledonia Mining is maintaining its annual production guidance of 74-78,000oz of gold production.
• CEO, Mark Learmonth, clarified that “the first quarter is traditionally our weakest” and acknowledged the “continued operational improvements and the dedication of our team on the ground … [in delivering] … a strong foundation for the remainder of the year”.

Conclusion: Record Q1 production with high plant throughput and growing ore stockpiles at the Blanket mine keeps Caledonia Mining on track to deliver its 2025 guidance of 74-78,000oz of gold.

*SP Angel mining analysts have visited Caledonia’s mining operations in Zimbabwe

Greatland Gold (GGP LN) 14.2p, Mkt Cap £1,805m – Reserve update for Telfer drives increased 2 year production outlook

• Greatland Gold has released its initial ore reserve estimate for the Telfer gold mine in WA, which it acquired in December.
• The estimate totals 46.1mt at an average grade of 0.48g/t gold and 0.05% copper hosting 712koz of gold and 23,000t of copper.
• The estimate, which follows a resource announcement in March of an ‘Indicated & Inferred’ resource of 115.6mt at an average grade of 0.55g/t gold and 0.05% copper, includes:

• • 14.2mt of ‘Probable’ reserves at an average grade of 0.60g/t gold and 0.05% copper at the West Dome open-pit; plus
  • 9.6mt of ‘Proven’ reserves in surface run-of-mine (ROM) stockpiles at an average grade of 0.68g/t gold and 0.07% copper; and
  • An additional 20.3mt of ‘Probable’ reserves in low-grade stockpiles at an average grade of 0.33g/t gold and 0.04% copper; plus
  • 2.0mt of dump leach material at an average grade of 0.23g/t gold.

• Based on the reserves, Greatland Gold has updated its 2-year production target for the Telfer mine with 300-340koz of gold and 9-13kt of copper output at an all-in-sustaining cost of A$2,400-2,600/oz expected in FY2026 and 260-300koz of gold and 5-9kt of copper output at an all-in-sustaining cost of A$2,750-2,950/oz expected in FY2027.
• The targeted production is based on 17-17.5mtpa of ore processing and the company explains that “16% of the Production Target for FY26 – 27 is sourced from Inferred Mineral Resources”..
• The company explains that “Telfer AISC expected to increase in FY27 as more mined inventory is processed (vs. stockpiled ore), however there is potential for improvement if higher grade ore sources are confirmed and/or costs are further optimised”.
• Commenting on the outlook for Telfer, Managing Director, Shaun Day, said that “only five months since the acquisition, this initial updated Telfer outlook already provides for a substantial 18-month extension of dual train processing at Telfer through FY27, expected to deliver on average 280,000 – 320,000 ounces of gold (plus copper) per annum over the next two years, with opportunities to further augment this as we continue to optimise our initial mine planning”.
• He described the new reserve estimate and revised production outlook as facilitating reinvestment “in Telfer and provides us the confidence that completion of Havieron’s development can be funded by existing cash, future Telfer cashflows and debt finance”.
• Greatland Gold also confirms that it expects that initial gold production at Havieron is expected “during FY28” and that its current Feasibility Study is now assessing “an initial mining rate (post ramp-up) of 2.8Mtpa, increasing to between 4.0Mtpa – 4.5Mtpa by development of an underground crusher and material handling system”.
• The Feasibility Study is “targeted for completion in H2 CY2025”.
• Mr. Day explained that “the Havieron Feasibility Study will assess a significantly expanded Havieron mine, increasing from an initial (post ramp-up) 2.8Mtpa mining rate up to between 4.0 – 4.5Mtpa, by development of an underground crusher and material handling system. This expansion is expected to be highly value accretive and potentially self-funded from initial Havieron production”.

Conclusion: The new ore-reserve estimate for Telfer underpins plans for increased production over the next two years.  Greatland Gold is also assessing the potential to increase planned production rates at Havieron where the Feasibility Study is expected to be completed in H2 this year.

Prospect Resources (PSC AU) A$0.14, Mkt Cap A$83m – A$15.2m investment from First Quantum to progress Mumbezhi

• Zambian copper explorer Prospect, who hold 85% in the Mumbezhi project, have placed A$15.2m worth of shares to First Quantum Minerals.
• The deal was executed at a 28% premium to Prospect’s 20-day VWAP and FQM will become a 15% shareholder in Prospect.
• FQM’s Sentinel Copper Mine lies 25km to the northwest of Mumbezhi.
• FQM will appoint a board member and will form a technical working group with Prospect.
• FQM will also be given reasonable opportunity to participate in future equity offers.
• Additionally, major shareholder Eagle Eye will also partake in a placing for A$2.8m at A$0.15/share, enabling them to maintain their 15.3% shareholding in Prospect.
• The total A$18.5m raised will be used to fund exploration and begin the Phase 2 drilling programme at Mumbezhi.
• Company notes that the partnership with FQM will ‘fast-track future development scenarios with experienced input and leverage FQM’s regional geological expertise and proven approach to resource growth.’
• Mumbezhi is believed to lie in the same regional geological setting as Sentinel.
• Mumbezhi currently holds 107mt at 0.5% Cu for 515kt of contained copper at the Nyungu Central and Kabikupa deposits.
• Phase 2 is set to begin in 2Q25 and will both aim at growing the current resource at Mumbezhi and test prospective regional targets.

Oriole Resources* (ORR LN) 0.19p, Mkt cap £7m – Further wide gold intercepts at Mbe

(BCM International is earning a 50% interest in Mbe and Bibemi by spending US$4m on exploration respectively)

• Oriole Resources, gold explorer in Cameroon, reports further drill results from the pre-resource Mbe.
• Oriole reports results from its Phase 1 drilling programme at MB01-S, which is now 44% complete with 2,895m drilled and a 10^th hole currently in progress.
• Today the company reports results from holes MBDD005 and MBDD006, over 609m.
• The holes returned an additional 30 mineralised intersections using 0.2g/t Au.
• Highlights include:
  • MBDD005:23m at 0.71g/t Au from 76, 5.6m at 1g/t Au from 7.5m and 1m at 1.9g/t Au from 38m .
  • MBDD006: 13.8m at 0.61g/t Au from 103m, 7.3m at 0.51g/t Au from 8.3m, 1m at 1.1g/t Au from 61m, 1m at 1.64g/t Au from 72m.
• Oriole now understands the system to run to a depth of c.150m on this drill fence line, with assays sent to Cote d’Ivoire for holes MBDD007 and MBDD008.
• Mineralisation is related to sulphide-rich quartz veins, veinlets and breccias within quartz-feldspar porphyry units.
• Company notes that late mafic dykes on this drill fence line may have disrupted the mineralisation at c.150m below surface, although this is believed to be localised and not visible on the southern fence line.

Conclusion: As it stands, the team sees the system hosting wide zones of lower grade gold mineralisation, potentially suitable to bulk-tonnage, open pit mining. The Company is less than halfway through the maiden drilling programme at Mbe and is currently guiding towards publishing a JORC-compliant maiden resource estimate in the second half of 2025.

*SP Angel acts as Broker to Oriole Resources

Robex Resources (RBX CN) C$3.2, Mkt Cap C$539m – Potential A$120m raise in the ASX IPO

• The Company is seeking to raise A$120m in the ASX listing, according to Australian media.
• The TSX-V listed Robex is building the Kiniero Gold Mine in Guinea (~140kozpa) and runs the Nampala Gold Mine in Mali (~50kozpa).
• Kiniero is targeted to pour first gold by YE25 running at ~140kozpa for 9y at $1,023/oz AISC (assuming $1,800/oz gold price) on 2025 FS numbers.
• Kiniero hosts 1.4moz at 0.97g/t in reserves and 3.7moz at 1.0g/t in total resource (incl reserves).

Tesoro Gold (TSO AU) SUSPENDED – Trading halt pending capital raise

• The Company is in trading halt amid a proposed capital raise.
• Trading is expected to be resumed by Thursday, 17 April.
• The Company owns the El Zorro Gold Project in the Atacama region of Chile with a mineral resource of 1.5moz at 1.07g/t.

WIA Gold* (WIA AU) A$0.17, Mkt Cap A$203m – Drilling results show potential to expand and upgrade Kokoseb MRE

• WIA Gold , reports drilling results from their programme at the Kokoseb gold project in Namibia.
• WIA is aiming to upgrade their current 2moz MRE and expects to expand the mineralisation beyond the current MRE boundary.
• Company is working to define the central high-grade shoot at Kokoseb, with results including:
  • KDD051: 5.4m at 7.6g/t Au from 412m
  • KDD052: 6m at 2.54g/t Au from 404m
  • KDD053: 21m at 4g/t Au from 296m,
  • Wia notes drilling has extended the high-grade shoot along strike and up and down plunge, with the zone seen as defining the potential for underground operations.
• Infill drilling at the Western, Central and NW zones returned highlights of:
  • KRC360: 10m at 1.7g.t Au from 186m
  • KRC365: 17m at 3.3g/t Au from 238m
  • Company notes that these intersected mineralisation outside of the current MRE, owing to sub-parallel zones to the main zones.
  • Company suggests this will also support the reclassification of some of the MRE to Indicated.

*An SP Angel Analyst holds shares in WIA Gold

Wishbone Gold (WSBN LN) – 0.14p, Mkt Cap £1.6m – Operational restructuring and strengthening of WA management

• Wishbone Gold has announced the completion of a corporate reorganisation of its Western Australian operating subsidiary.
• The company confirms that it “has paid out all of its legal liabilities and completed the reorganisation of its Western Australia subsidiary, Wishbone Gold WA”.
• Wishbone Gold also reports the appointment of an experienced geologist, Edward Mead, as a director.
• Mr. Mead, who “has a BSc in Geology from Canterbury University in New Zealand and is a Fellow of the Australian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy” is described as having “30 years’ experience in gold and base metals exploration, mine development and mine production”.
• Chairman, Richard Poulden, described the reorganisation as “a very positive step forward for the Company … [and confirmed that Mr. Mead will] … head up our Western Australian operations effective immediately”.
• Mr. Poulden explained that the company will “take back full ownership and operational control of our exciting Red Setter and Cottesloe projects”.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

SP Angel                                                            

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street London

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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