SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Tuesday 14th January 2025

Copper ticks higher on stronger China exports and hints at stimulus 

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

SP angel received great news last week from the LSEG StarMine commodities forecast polling team

• SP Angel – 1^st in LSEG StarMine Precious Metals poll for 2024
• SP Angel – 2^nd in LSEG StarMine Base Metals poll for 2024

Atalaya Mining (ATYM LN) – 2024 copper production meets guidance with increased output expected in 2025.

B2 Gold (BTG US) – 2025 production guidance and dividend cut

Barrick Gold (GOLD US) – Reported suspension of Mali operations after gold seized

Caledonia Mining (CMCL LN) – Blanket mine delivers 2024 production guidance and a strong start to 2025

CleanTech Lithium (CTL LN) – Pilot plant produces 99.78% purity lithium carbonate. Company delists from US OTCQX market

Highfield Resources (HFR AU) – FIRB approval for Yankuang Energy investment of US$376m at A$0.5/s

Oriole Resources* (ORR LN) – Continued progress with drilling in Cameroon

Savannah Resources* (SAV LN) – BUY, 18.1p – Barroso DFS and RECAPE related work accelerates

24 First Tin (1SN LN) – Exploration review identifies potential around Taronga

Copper ($9,162/t) ticks higher on stronger China exports and hints at stimulus

• Copper prices have firmed above $9,000/t after bouncing from recent lows of $8,780/t at the beginning of the year.
• Exports rose 11%yoy in December, with copper imports hitting their highest level in three years.
• Meanwhile, China’s Ministry of Commerce suggested further measures to boost consumption, which remains a thorn in the side of Beijing policymakers.

Chinese copper imports rose 17.8% yoy to 559,000mt in December and 3.27% yoy to 5.68mt for the year

• Part of the recent copper rally may reflect rising COMEX prices in anticipation of Trump tariffs.
• Production is expected to continue to grow from the DRC as Kamoa continues to ramp up, however Codelco is struggling to boost output.

Gold ($2,667/oz) steady amid additional reports of more moderate Trump tariffs

• Gold was steady whilst the dollar pared some gains on reports of Trump imposing more gradual tariff hikes.
• This pushed Treasuries marginally lower, with the 10 year yield now at 4.77%.
• The yuan sell-off seems to have cooled, and it will be interesting to see gold’s reaction should the Chinese currency stage a rally.
• Gold has been a beneficiary of yuan weakness over the past twelve months, with Chinese retail diversifying their asset base with gold.

Lithium prices steady despite January supply deficit forecasts on sliding Chinese production

• China spodumene and carbonate prices continue to hover around $800/t and $10,000/t respectively.
• However, Mysteel forecasts China carbonate production in January expected to slide 17%.
• The forecast factors in lower output from converters and hydrometallurgical plants during the Chinese New Year holiday.
• Spodumene production from Sichuan and Jiangxi is set to slide.
• Inventories are still reported high at spodumene converters, who hold sufficient ore stocks.
• Domestic carbonate production has now fallen for the fourth week in a row.
• LFP production expected to fall 3%mom in January.
• Lithium demand is seasonally weaker in the first quarter of the year.
• China’s 2024 lithium carbonate demand reportedly rose 44%yoy to 850kt LCE. (SMM)
• However,2024 carbonate production saw an annual surplus of c.60kt, with a cumulative inventory build of 110kt.
• Shanghai Metals Market expects supply growth to outpace demand in 2025, stating the ‘industry’s hope for lithium carbonate to return to CNY100k/t ($13,600/t) may remain a distant dream.’
• However, Chinese majors continue to add to reserves, with Zijin currently progressing a $6bn deal for Qinghai brine producer Zangge.

Iron ore – China’s steel exports rose 22.7% yoy to 110.72mt last year, a nine-year high according the GACC ‘General Administration of Customs’

• December exports rose 25.9% yoy to 9.73as traders rushed to beat Trump tariffs with US steel imports rising to 2.41mt in December from 2.07mt in November
• China’s iron ore imports rose 4.9% yoy to a record 1.24bnt last year despite demand falling 5% with greater use of scrap in electric arc furnaces.
• Better quality Australian and Brazilian iron ores were seen displacing lower grade material. This is good news for prices of by-product metals which are produced from blast furnace slag.

Economics

US – Trump economic advisers are considering gradual hikes to tariffs month by month aimed at increasing leverage in future trade discussions.

• Among proposals discussed one of ideas is to increase tariffs by about 2-5% per month.
• Hope is gradual increases would allow to avoid extreme cases of trade tariffs and minimise the effect on inflation.
• President can use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to allow faster implementation of proposed trade barriers.
• President elect Trump previously argued for minimum tariffs of 10% to 20% on all imported goods and 60% or higher on shipments from China.
• Yields and US$ index pulled back and S&P 500 futures are rising on a more diluted approach to proposed tariffs.
• Inflation numbers due this week will be watched closely with estimates for PPI and CPI to post a pick up in growth rates to 3.5% (+0.5ppp) and 2.9% (+0.2ppp), respectively.

China – December new loans growth numbers this morning came slightly ahead of estimates, although, total for the year was at its lowest since 2019 and marked the first decline since 2011.

• The pace of lending highlights weak demand as the economy is struggling amid deflation risks and property sector woes.
• New Yuan Loans (CNY YTD, Dec/Nov/Est): 18.1tn/17.1tn/17.9tn
• Aggregate Financing (CNY YTD, Dec/Nov/Est): 32.3tn/229.4tn/31.6tn
• M2 Money Supply (%yoy, dec/Nov/Est): 7.3/7.1/7.3
• PBoC to help stimulate domestic consumption to help offset strong deflationary pressures throughout the economy.
• Causing yuan to depreciate against the USD to levels not seen since 2008.
• The 10-year is trading at 1.66% the lowest level in 25 years driven by the property market crisis, sluggish consumer spending, and cutthroat competition among industry giants,
• Consumption data better than expected

Mali – Government initiates expropriation of gold from Barrick’s Loulo-Gounkoto gold mine.

• The Mali government has repeatedly asked the company comply with its 2023 Minerals Act.

Spain – Foreigners may be required to pay 100% tax on holiday homes in Spain according to the Spanish prime minister

• At present, rates vary by region but typically buyers are paying between 7% and 12% of the property value, according to real estate agents.
• Housing ministry said the new measure would be introduced by modifying stamp duty or via a special tax.
• Non Spaniards (incl EU citizens) accounted for 24.7k properties or 15% of total in 3Q24.

Pedro Sánchez’s 12 housing reforms include:

• A new tax for those from outside the EU who do not currently live in Spain.
• New-build homes currently attract a 10% stamp duty and 6pc on older homes.
• The Golden Visa scheme will close on 3^rd April (minimum investment for a visa is currently €500,000).
• France also gave local authorities the power to charge up to 60% extra in local council tax on second homes

Mitsubishi Corp close Chinese metal trading business after suspected fraud by a copper trader led to US$92m loss

• Mitsubishi will not conduct new ‘domestic’ transactions in China.
• Mr Gong Huayong, was dismissed after he allowed certain local companies to defer payments for copper concentrate and refined copper, including counterparties who were unapproved by Mitsubishi. (Bloomberg.
• The firm will continue to import copper concentrates into China

Currencies

US$1.0272/eur vs 1.0222/eur previous. Yen 157.43/$ vs 157.53/$. SAr 18.943/$ vs 19.177/$. $1.224/gbp vs $1.216/gbp. 0.621/aud vs 0.615/aud. CNY 7.330/$ vs 7.331/$.

Dollar Index 109.441 vs 109.773 previous.

Precious metals:         

Gold US$2,672/oz vs US$2,686/oz previous

Gold ETFs 83.2moz vs 82.9moz previous

Platinum US$962/oz vs US$964/oz previous

Palladium US$945/oz vs US$953/oz previous

Silver US$29.8/oz vs US$30.3/oz previous

Rhodium US$4,650/oz vs US$4,675/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$9,156/t vs US$9,118/t previous

Aluminium US$2,591/t vs US$2,574/t previous

Nickel US$15,805/t vs US$15,715/t previous

Zinc US$2,879/t vs US$2,870/t previous

Lead US$1,945/t vs US$1,958/t previous

Tin US$29,955/t vs US$30,080/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$80.6/bbl vs US$81.0/bbl previous

• US natural gas prices fell after gas flows into the Freeport LNG facility in Texas fell 33% to 1.4bcf/d, with the LSEG also slashing estimated production curtailments in January due to freezing oil and gas wells and pipes.
• Hunting expects FY24 financials to be in line with consensus estimates and forecasts over 10% EBITDA growth in 2025, with the strong balance sheet supporting active discussions with a number of M&A targets. The EMEA operating segment is to be restructured, given the low levels of future drilling activity expected in the North Sea.
• Burgenland Energie has put into operation an agri-PV plant with a peak capacity of 164MW in Austria, which will allow over 75% of the arable land on around 180 hectares of farmland to still be used for agriculture.

Natural Gas €47.7/MWh vs €47.1/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $73.8/lb vs $73.6/lb previous

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$100.4/t vs US$99.1/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$483.2/t vs US$483.4/t

HCC FOB Australia US$196.8/t vs US$197.5/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$115.2/t vs US$116.0/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$24,300/t vs US$24,300/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$55,111/t vs US$54,630/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$9,958/t vs US$9,821/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$795/t vs US$795/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,005/t vs US$1,005/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$338/mtu vs US$338/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$435/t vs US$435/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$4.6/lb vs US$4.7/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$25.3/kg vs US$25.4/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$290/t vs US$290/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,071/t vs US$1,084/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$300.0/t vs US$300.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$2,725.0/kg vs US$2,725.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$385.0/kg vs US$385.0/kg

Battery News

German automakers see global sales down in 2024

• German automakers saw a drop in sales across 2024, both in their home market and in China.
• BMW on reported a 2.3% drop in global vehicle sales at its BMW brand, compared to a 3% drop at Mercedes-Benz and Porsche, and a 12% drop at Volkswagen’s Audi.
• In China and Germany, however, BMW saw falls of 13.4% and 5.3%, respectively, while Mercedes’ sales were off by 7% and 9%. Audi’s sales fell by 11% in China and by 21% in Germany.
• Germany saw sales slip as wealthier consumers held back on purchases amid an uncertain economy and on slower than expected EV sales.

South Korean researchers develop ‘fire-proof’ EV battery

• A research team at the Daegu Gyeongbuk Institute of Science and Technology has developed a lithium metal EV battery that has a longer lifespan compared to traditional lithium-ion batteries and may also extinguish fires by itself.
• The battery uses a “triple layer solid polymer electrolyte” that could prevent fires and facilitate rapid movement of charge-carrying ions within the cells, which translates to faster energy transfer rates.
• Korean battery giant LG Energy Solution has also developed EV batteries that can suppress thermal runaway – their new technology uses a temperature sensitive “safety reinforced layer” in battery packs that acts as a “fuse” to prevent overheating in the first place.
• South Korea saw a spate of high profile EV battery fires last year prompting consumers to question the safety of EVs.

GM-SAIC JV to launch car with 6C LFP battery this year

• GM’s Chinese joint venture SAIC-GM will launch the first vehicle with a 6C LFP battery this year.
• The battery pack was jointly developed with the world’s biggest battery maker CATL and can charge 350km of range in 10 minutes.
• The 6C battery will also charge 200km in five minutes, as the two companies aim to ease range anxiety.
• 6C means the battery can charge with a power of six times the capacity, meaning a 100kWh battery could be charged with 600kW.

Company News

Atalaya Mining (ATYM LN) 363p, Mkt Cap £505m – 2024 copper production meets guidance with increased output expected in 2025.

• Atalaya Mining reports production of 12,078t of copper during the three months to 31^st December 2024 bringing full year production to 46,227t (2023 – 51,667t) and meeting the company’s 45-50,000t guidance.
• Annual production was generated by the processing of 15.9mt of ore (2023 – 15.8mt) at an average grade of 0.35% copper (2023 – 0.38%).
• Copper grades increased during Q4 2024 to 0.41% (Q3 2024 – 0.33%) and the company explains that the lower full year average grade of ore (0.35%) resulted from “pit sequencing”.
• Lower recovery rates of 83.05% over the year (FY 2023 – 86.62%) resulted from “a combination of lower grades and the characteristics of certain ores”.
• Atalaya Mining confirms a year end cash balance of €52.9m offsetting borrowing of €17.8m for a net balance of €35.1m.
• The company reports 2025 guidance for copper production in the range 48-52,000t representing an increase of ~4-12% with “production weighted slightly towards H1 2025 as a result of pit sequencing”.
• Operationally. Atalaya Mining confirms that “waste stripping continues at San Dionisio in order to prepare the area for future mining phases … [with] …. Total material mined was 1.9 million tonnes in Q4 2024 and 13.4 million tonnes in FY2024”.
• The “permitting process associated with the San Dionisio final pit continues to advance according to expectations”.
• Further infill and step-out drilling at the San Antonio deposit, which alongside ore from San Dionisio, is expected to improve average grades processed in the medium term, “is expected to begin in the coming months”.
• The company also confirms the previously announced completion of its re-domiciliation to Spain.
• Commenting on the results, CEO Alberto Lavandeira, said that “we expect further progress on several important operational and corporate initiatives … [in 2025 and although] … 2024 was not without challenges, we ended the year on a positive note at Riotinto and by completing our re-domiciliation to Spain”.
• He expressed continuing confidence in “the outlook for copper despite short and medium term headwinds. Investment in the energy transition and datacentres continues to accelerate globally, while on the supply side, a variety of geopolitical and social challenges are expected to hamper the development of new copper projects”.

Conclusion: Atalaya Mining has met its 2024 copper production guidance and indicates a modestly higher, 48-52,000t guidance range for 2025.

B2 Gold (BTG US) $2.5, Mkt Cap $3.3bn – 2025 production guidance and dividend cut

• B2 Gold reports 2024 production results, producing 805koz total consolidated ounces.
• Company had guided for total gold production in 2024 at 860-940koz at an AISC of $1,360-1,420/oz.
• 2024 AISC expected at $1,420-1,480/oz.
• Consolidated revenue in 2024 of US$1.9bn, with an average realised gold price of $2,373/oz.
• 2025 production guided at 970-1,075koz Au, with Goose expected to commence production 2Q25, whilst open pit activities at Otjikoto concluding in 3Q25.
• AISC for 2025 guided at $1,460-1,520/oz.
• Goose production in 2025 guided at 120-150koz before ramping up to 310kozpa between 2026-2031.
• 83% of Goose CAPEX now deployed, of the total C$1,540m.
• Fekola regional exploitation licence expected to be received this quarter, with gold production due mid-2025.
• Dividend cut from $0.04/quarter to $0.02/quarter, with the Company preparing a buyback alternative.

Barrick Gold (GOLD US) $15.5 Mkt Cap $27bn – Reported suspension of Mali operations after gold seized

• Reuters reported yesterday that Mali has seized $245m in gold from Barrick’s Loulo-Gounkoto complex.
• C.96koz has reportedly been seized from Barrick’s Loulo operations this weekend.
• A judge reportedly ordered the seizure under a confiscation order last week.
• The Judge claims that Barrick’s two Malian mines owe $5.5bn, well above previous estimates.
• Barrick has filed for arbitration proceedings against Mali.
• Mali previously stated there was $500m in unpaid taxes owed by Barrick.
• Barrick paid $85m to Mali in October.
• Mali owns 20% of Loulo-Gounkoto under the current mining agreement.
• The LG Complex produced 683koz last year, 547koz attributable to Barrick. It ranks as one of Barrick’s lower cost operations.
• P&P Reserves stand at 7.2moz, with 10moz in M&I resources.

Caledonia Mining (CMCL LN) 760p, Mkt Cap £146m – Blanket mine delivers 2024 production guidance and a strong start to 2025

• Caledonia Mining reports that gold production of 19,841oz during the final quarter of 2024 at its Blanket mine in Zimbabwe brought annual production to 76,656oz meeting the company’s previously announced guidance range of 74-78,000oz.
• Ore tonnes milled during the year at 797kt was a record with the company explaining that “with 89,727 tonnes hoisted in December” mined tonnage, exceeded milling capacity.
• The company’s “production guidance for 2025 is 73,500 to 77,500 oz … [reflecting] … the current mine scheduling, which anticipates that Blanket will continue to mine lower-grade areas”.
• On mine costs in 2025 are “forecast at $1,050/oz to $1,150/oz (up from $950/oz to $1,050/oz in 2024), while all-in sustaining cost (“AISC”) is expected to be in the range of $1,690/oz to $1,790/oz (up from $1,450/oz to $1,550/oz in 2024)”.
• The company explains that the higher costs “for 2025 reflects higher labour, HR and IT expenses and increased sustaining capital expenditure. Increased expenditure in these areas is part of the ongoing modernisation of the business”.
• CEO, Mark Learmonth, explained that “As a result of the strong mine production, we closed the year with a stockpile of 8,400 tonnes which puts us in a good position to start 2025”.
• He also explained that “Over the past seven years, our investment in Blanket has nearly doubled production and has substantially increased the resource base following which Blanket’s mine life now extends to 2034 based on reserves”.
• Mr. Learmonth also said that the revised feasibility study for the company’s Bilboes project in Zimbabwe “is scheduled to complete later in the first quarter of this year”.
• In conjunction with “encouraging exploration results at Motapa …  [adjacent to the southeast to the Bilboes project, Mr. Learmonth said that Caledonia Mining is] … systematically building a mid-tier Zimbabwe focussed gold producer with multi-asset profitable production”.

Conclusion: Caledonia Mining achieved its 2024 production guidance range of 74-78,000oz producing 76,656oz and is guiding production in the range 73,500-77,500oz for 2025.  We look forward to the revised feasibility study for the Bilboes project, expected later this quarter, for an insight into the project pipeline for delivering the company’s goal of becoming a multi-asset Zimbabwean gold producer.

*SP Angel mining analysts have visited Caledonia’s mining operations in Zimbabwe

CleanTech Lithium (CTL LN) 15.4p, Mkt Cap £13m – Pilot plant produces 99.78% purity lithium carbonate. Company delists from US OTCQX market

• CleanTech Lithium reports the production of 99.78% lithium carbonate at the Conductive Energy pilot plant facilities in Copiapo in Chile.
• The pilot plant uses iFO ‘Forward Osmosis’ to concentrate the lithium brine eluate to produce a highly concentrated pre-carbonation solution.
• The solution is then treated to remove contaminants before carbonation to technical-grade lithium carbonate.
• The resulting material is then ‘polished’ to make battery-grade lithium carbonate.
• CleanTech report “a substantial volume of pre-carbonation solution and lithium carbonate was produced as reported to the market on 21 November 2024.”
• Whle iFO production was paused due to freezing weather in Chicago from late November to protect the equipment further downstream processing continued using pre-carbonation solution.
• The team produced 8kg sample of high grade lithium carbonate in December which has been analysed at 99.78% purity eg >99.6% (Chinese GB/T 23853-2022 (Type 1) purity standard..
• The process is shown to be effective at removing contaminants with pre-carbonation solution, Calcium, Magnesium and Boron, reduced by 98.5%, 99.9% and to non-detection (>99.99%) respectively.
  • “Conductive Energy is is currently assessing best options to restart iFO operations that are paused due to winter conditions.
  • Conductive is utilising the current pause to upgrade the system based on initial data as well as add an nanofiltration step to remove divalent ions (Calcium, Magnesium) before the ion exchange steps which will improve purification efficiency further whilst improvements in automation and process control will be made.”
• 88m3 of concentrated eluate was shipped from the DLE pilot plant in Copiapó to Chicago for conversion into lithium carbonate..
• 27.5m3 of concentrated eluate was processed through the iFO stage reducing down to 5.3m3 of pre-carbonation solution with lithium concentrations up to 14,400mg/l.
• The iFO unit is a mobile demonstration scale unit with a feed flow rate of 800 – 1,000L/hr
• Some of this solution was processed into ~50kg of lithium carbonate as reported on 21 November.
• More recent iFO processing recorded 14,350mg/l Li, a 6.5X increase in concentration of the concentrated eluate and could be improved further.
  • “Optimization is expected to achieve a minimum 10X increase in concentration at this stage.”
• Carbonation: initial technical grade material was produced in <15 minutes of reactor time.
• Polishing: This material was then ‘polished’ in a single wash step to produce a high-purity lithium carbonate product.
• Kiln drying: Moisture in the polished product was low at 28%wt with the final dry-product at 99.78% lithium carbonate purity.
• Next steps:
  • Early January – early February 2025: facility recommissioning and recommence processing
  • Mid-February – plan additional tours with third parties for offtake purposes
  • Mid-February – early April, completion of CleanTech Lithium’s concentrated eluate processing and conversion to battery grade lithium carbonate to produce larger quantities for start of product qualification by potential strategic partners and off-takers..
• PFS (Laguna Verde ) due Q1

Conclusion: We wait in anticipation for the PFS and to inspect its assumptions. Eg what lithium and energy prices will be required to deliver economic returns and what sort of capex will be required for the process plant.

Highfield Resources (HFR AU) A$0.27, Mkt Cap A$121m – FIRB approval for Yankuang Energy investment of US$376m at A$0.5/s

• Highfield Resources report a statement of ‘no objection’ from the Australian FIRB ‘Foreign Investment Review Board’ for a US$376m investment by Yankuang Energy.
• The investment is part of placement and ‘Vend-In’ whereby Highfield plan to raise a total of US$220m to acquire the Southey potash project in Saskatchewan, Canada from Yankuang Energy by way of the acquisition of 100% of the shares in Yancoal Canada Resources, a subsidiary of Yankuang Energy for US$286m

Conclusion: while the FIRB ‘no-objection’ sounds positive we suspect the Canadian authorities will also want to take their time to understand the structure and motivation of the transaction and its investment.

The ICA ‘Investment Canada Act’ is designed to ensure that the most significant investments into Canada by non-Canadians benefit Canada’s economy.

The Act also allows the government to review foreign investments of any size to ensure they are not harmful to Canada’s national security.

The Act aims to balance a positive investment climate to promote economic prosperity while safeguarding Canada from foreign actors that attempt to gain ownership or control of sensitive Canadian goods, technology, infrastructure, or personal data for purposes that could be injurious to Canada’s national security.

Oriole Resources* (ORR LN) 0.24p, Mkt cap £9.3m – Continued progress with drilling in Cameroon

• Oriole, gold explorer in Cameroon, has provided an operational update.
• At Bibemi, the company provides additional results form its Phase 5 drilling programme at Bibemi.
• Bibemi results include holes BBDD087-94 at BZ1-NE, with highlights including:
  • BBDD092: 5.4m at 1.68g/t Au from 32m
  • BBDD093: 1m at 1.72g/t Au from 25m
• Drilling returned intercepts from BZ1-SW, notably:
  • BBDD095: 1.2m at 13.6g/t Au from 39m
  • BZ1-SW sits outside the current 375koz JORC-MRE.
• A further seven drilled holes are awaiting assay results form BZ1-SW, with the Bibemi programme due for completion this quarter.
• At Mbe, drilling continues for the 6,590m diamond programme. 990.5m has been drilled to date across three holes.
• Samples from the first two Mbe scissor drill holes have been sent to the lab and results are due this quarter.
• At Senala, the Company’s Senegalese gold project, Oriole is finalising a JV agreement for continued exploration with Managem.
• Recent grab samples from the Senala Fare targets returned results up to 44g/t Au, and Managem is currently drafting a work programme review.
• The legacy Turkish asset Muratdere recently received approval for its EIA and is now progressing the forestry permit. Oriole will seek a buyer for their 1.2% NSR.
• Muratdere reserves stand at 16mt at 0.52% Cu, 0.0125% Mo, 0.11g/t Au and 2.4g/t Ag.

Conclusion: A promising update from Oriole, with expectations that the Phase 5 drilling programme at Bibemi will support the upgrade of the current JORC MRE from inferred to Measured/Indicated. Bibemi drilling has also raised the potential for additional ounces from the BZ1-NE and BZ1-SW satellite targets. Mbe assay results are due later this quarter, with 991m of the 6,950m programme now completed. It is reassuring to see progress being made at Senala with Managem,  where a JV agreement is being finalised. The sale of the Muratdere NSR would likely further strengthen Oriole’s balance sheet.

*SP Angel acts as Broker to Oriole Resources

Savannah Resources* (SAV LN) 4.5p, Mkt Cap £98m – Barroso DFS and RECAPE related work accelerates

BUY – 18.1p

• The Company released a development update at the Barroso Lithium Project in Portugal.
• Phase 2 drilling is launching after securing temporary land access last December focused on infill, geotechnical, hydrogeological and metallurgical drilling at Grandao, Reservatorio and Pinheiro.
• 37 drill pads are ready with a further 10 in the final stages of preparation as rigs are being mobilised to site.
• The programme is for 117 holes and ~13,000m.
• MRE update is expected 1H25.
• Site and mining layout have been completed pending results from geotechnical assessment.
• Processing plant feasibility design is well advanced and preliminary layout for TSF has been completed.
• Quotes for major mechanical equipment have been received with quote requests for electrical equipment, steel/pipe fabrication and installation contracts are being prepared.
• The team continues to explore market opportunity for feldspar quartz by product engaging with major customers in the ceramics industry and commissioned a market study with a local consultant.
• Permitting related work is well advanced with stakeholder engagement ongoing.
• The Company initiated the process of compulsory acquisition for certain land plots with compensation estimated by independent surveyors certified by the Portugues Courts.
• Compulsory land acquisition is a right provided by the mining law and is common in infrastructure projects in power and transport sectors.
• The Company continues to offer local landowners an option to sell or lease their land with rates on average two times the value calculated by independent surveyors and up to four times for separate land plots.

Conclusion: DFS and permitting related work accelerates as the team aims to complete the study and secure permits in 2H25.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Savannah Resources

24 First Tin (1SN LN) 5.15p, Mkt Cap £24.6m – Exploration review identifies potential around Taronga

• First Tin reports that a review of the exploration potential around its Taronga tin project in New South Wales has identified projects which may eventually provide feed to the Taronga plant.
• CEO, Bill Scotting, confirmed that the company’s priority remains “bringing our Taronga project into production” but said that First Tin intends “to progress in parallel …  large pipeline of nearby projects within this exceptional tin district”.
• Targets close to the Taronga pit include the Pound Flat area which was drilled in the 1970s/80s by Newmont and Billiton and exhibits “Intercepts very similar to those seen at Taronga itself” as well as the former mining area around Emmaville including the Great Britain and Tin Beetle prospects and the alluvial/elluvial and hard rock prospects at McDonalds where anomalous geochemical sampling coincides with geophysical induced-polarisation anomalies.
• Additional potential targets identified in today’s announcement include a 3.8km long trend of anomalous stream sediment geochemistry southwest of Taronga and areas of historic mining at Rossmoine including “the historical Taylors and Dalcoath lodes and a very large area of previous alluvial tin mining” and “Numerous other targets … [many of which] … have only had perfunctory exploration to date”.
• Mr. Scotting said that the large number of potential targets identified in the exploration review may allow First Tin to “utilise the proposed processing facility at Taronga as a central processing facility or “hub” for processing moderate to high grade mineralisation either trucked directly or as a pre-concentrate, using a mobile crushing and jigging facility”.

Conclusion: Additional exploration potential has been identified around Taronga which may eventually provide further feed sources for the plant as a processing hub. We look forward to the results of follow-up exploration to validate the concept.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

SP Angel                                                            

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street London

W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

DISCLAIMER

This note is a marketing communication and comprises non-independent research. This means it has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination.

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Where the investment is traded on AIM it should be noted that liquidity may be lower and price movements more volatile.

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SPA is registered in England and Wales with company number OC317049.  The registered office address is Prince Frederick House, 35-39 Maddox Street, London W1S 2PP.  SPA is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange plc.

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SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return