Gold prices hold higher following US Treasury rally on cautious Fed and safe-haven appetite
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
Aberdeen Minerals (PRIVATE) – Grant award from UK government for minerals processing in UK battery supply chain
Alphamin Resources (AFM CN) – Q3 production report and Mpama South development update
Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) – BUY – Loan from the IBA
Atlantic Lithium* (ALL LN) – STRONG BUY – Atlantic gains approval to move power lines following visit to Ewoyaa by Hon. Samuel A. Jinapor
Bushveld Minerals* (BMN LN) – BUY, 7.9p – Response to market speculation
Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) – Operations Update for Q3
Griffin Mining Ltd (GFM LN) – Successful commissioning of 6MW Solar Farm at Caijiaying zinc mine in China
Mkango Resources* (MKA LN) – Maginito and CoTec plan HPMS project FS in the US
IGTV: New lower lows in base metals keep coming – why? https://youtu.be/1KWgI2HTUGw?si=VlVfQtpW-mrI7slD
Copper will still move up despite a gear shift down in carbon-zero targets https://youtu.be/jbywf2hmEU8?si=yxJcwGiE1_V121Ok
VOX: 06/10/23: https://audioboom.com/posts/8379837-john-meyer-on-diamond-price-weakness-petra-anglo-asian-bushveld-power-metal-resources
*SP Angel almost invariably acts as nomad or broker or nomad and broker to companies mentioned in the above videos and podcasts. We speak more about these companies as we have a good understanding of their business and can talk with a greater degree of confidence. As ever, however, it should be noted that our views do not take into account the circumstances and needs of any particular investor or investor type. So enjoy the talks, but please do your own research, including other companies not mentioned by us but operating in the same areas, and get professional advice where appropriate.
Copper prices slide on forward-looking demand outlook from China despite weaker dollar
- The copper price has fallen back to around the $8,000/t mark.
- Analysts expect China was ‘buying the dip’ yesterday following a week’s holiday, although this muted recovery may be raising warning flags to traders.
- Higher rates have also been weighing on trader appetite, with buyers forced to shed holdings to support margin requirements.
- The LME inventories remain elevated, but a weaker dollar as US Treasury rates cool may provide some needed respite to metals.
Gold prices hold higher following Treasury rally on dovish Fed and safe-haven appetite
- Gold prices have held around the $1,860/oz mark in the spot market.
- The move follows a rally in US Treasuries, with the 10-year yield shedding 20bp to 4.65%.
- Yields and gold move inversely.
- The dollar has also weakened on the bid for Treasuries, with Dovish fed officials yesterday (Lorrie Logan and Philip Jefferson), causing the market to reduce its expectations of additional hikes.
- The fact the Treasury market shrugged off a huge NFP beat on Friday has supported bullish bets on US Government bonds. Underlying signs of weakness in the report, including in private employment numbers, have added to expectations of a cooling labour market.
- CPI and PPI data due tomorrow and Thursday will provide additional catalysts to the gold price.
- Further escalations in the Middle East may also support bullish bets on bullion.
Iron prices slide as steel mill margins weaken despite sliding inventories
- Iron ore prices fell to a seven week low at $111/t following renewed concerns over the steel market.
- China home sales continue to fall, and Evergrande continues to struggle to pay $6bn in offshore liabilities.
- Additionally, Country Garden is amplifying warnings of default.
- However, steel mills are showing sliding inventories, suggesting a ramp up in production appetite may be due.
| Dow Jones Industrials | +0.59% | at | 33,605 | |
| Nikkei 225 | +2.43% | at | 31,747 | |
| HK Hang Seng | +0.86% | at | 17,668 | |
| Shanghai Composite | -0.70% | at | 3,075 |
Currencies
US$1.0558/eur vs 1.0529/eur previous. Yen 149.05/$ vs 149.15/$. SAr 19.305/$ vs 19.424/$. $1.222/gbp vs $1.218/gbp. 0.640/aud vs 0.635/aud. CNY 7.295/$ vs 7.296/$.
Dollar Index 106.23 vs 106.50 previous.
Commodity News
Precious metals:
Gold US$1,858/oz vs US$1,849/oz previous
Gold ETFs 87.0moz vs 87.2moz previous
Platinum US$889/oz vs US$885/oz previous
Palladium US$1,144/oz vs US$1,155/oz previous
Silver US$21.70/oz vs US$22/oz previous
Rhodium US$4,100/oz vs US$4,100/oz previous
Base metals:
Copper US$ 8,018/t vs US$8,107/t previous
Aluminium US$ 2,232/t vs US$2,247/t previous
Nickel US$ 18,835/t vs US$18,590/t previous
Zinc US$ 2,460/t vs US$2,526/t previous
Lead US$ 2,107/t vs US$2,157/t previous
Tin US$ 24,745/t vs US$25,110/t previous
Energy:
Oil US$87.2/bbl vs US$87.3/bbl previous
- European energy prices increased on increasing rhetoric from labour unions regarding potential strike action at Chevron’s Australian LNG facilities.
- Chevron announced a temporary suspension of operations at its Tamar natural gas field, which is c.25km from the Gaza Strip, at the request of Israeli authorities. The Leviathan field continues to operate normally.
- Media reports that Macquarie is considering the ~£750m sale of its 25% interest in the 573MW Race Bank offshore wind farm, located off the UK’s Norfolk coast.
- The SPA Energy team has transferred to Cape Town for the Africa Oil Week conference, please feel free to contact us if you would like to catch up over a coffee while we are in town (other beverages are available).
Natural Gas €47.000/MWh vs €41.000/MWh previous
Uranium UXC US$72.75/lb vs US$72.75/lb previous
Bulk:
Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$111.2/t vs US$114.8/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$541.2/t vs US$540.0/t
Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$124.3/t vs US$118.5/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$141.5/t vs US$141.5/t
Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$321.0/t vs US$321.0/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$33,420/t vs US$33,420/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$73,032/t vs US$71,274/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$21,052/t vs US$21,040/t
China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,230/t vs US$2,230/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,024/t vs US$1,021/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$305/mtu vs US$305/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$645/t vs US$645/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% 6.6/lb vs US$6.6/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% 29.25/kg vs US$29.25/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$316/t vs US$316/t
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$83.8/t vs US$83.6/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$345.0/t vs US$345.0/t
Battery News
UK government announce £89m in funding for EV technology
- The funding has been awarded to 20 cutting edge projects to push the UK as a world leader in zero emission vehicles.
- £45.2m of this investment comes directly from the government, backed by a further £42.7m from the automotive industry.
- Recipients of the funding include:
- Perkins – the British engine maker, a subsidiary of Caterpillar, will develop a net-zero, hydrogen-hybrid, integrated power system for off-highway vehicles.
- Aston Martin – to accelerate the development of a luxury battery electric vehicle platform.
- Green Lithium Refining – will build a lithium scale-up plant in Teesside to support the commissioning and training of a skilled workforce for its full-scale plant in Teesside, which will produce enough refined lithium for over 1m EVs.
- Cornish Lithium – for the commercial extraction of lithium and other battery metals in Cornwall, notably the Trelavour hard-rock lithium mica deposit near St Austell.
BYD closing in on Tesla as largest EV manufacturer
- Chinese automaker BYD sold 431,603 pure electric cars worldwide in Q3 2023, marking a 23% increase yoy.
- In Q3, BYD sold 390,491 PHEVs worldwide, bringing its combined EV and PHEV sales to 822,094 units.
- BYD is now just 3,456 sales behind Tesla, which reported delivering 435,059 vehicles during the same period.
- Factors such as potential overnight price cuts in the US and Tesla’s recently unveiled Model 3 facelift could impact sales and influence the competition between BYD and Tesla.
- BYD’s success solidifies its position as China’s leading car brand, surpassing Volkswagen in sales for the first time earlier this year.
- Although most of BYD’s sales occur within China, the company is expanding its reach into Europe, Australia, and other global markets.
EV Recalls Surge over Past 3 Years in Korea
- EV recalls in Korea have surged over 14 times in the last three years.
- Data revealed a rise from 8 recalls in 2020 to 118 in 2022, with 64 recalls recorded from January to August 2023.
- Nine of the top 10 recalled models were imported EVs, with BMW having the highest number of recalls (25), followed by Tesla (19) and Mercedes-Benz (18).
- The number of free repairs for EVs increased from 15 in 2020 to 96 in 2022, with 95 free repair services provided through August 2023.
Toyota Preparing for EV Future
- Toyota plans a return to EVs using cutting-edge technology, primarily solid-state batteries and hydrogen, though these technologies are not fully ready for mass production yet.
- The company has been investing its profits into product development, preparing for the future of EVs while continuing to sell its current lineup of vehicles.
- Toyota has a history of introducing groundbreaking technology in ordinary vehicles, such as the Prius hybrid and the hydrogen-powered Mirai.
- The introduction of the bZ4X electric SUV serves as a precursor to Toyota’s upcoming EV lineup, positioning itself as an EV manufacturer before direct competition with other industry players.
- Toyota plans to introduce solid-state batteries in its EVs in the late 2020s, emphasizing its commitment to reliability and long-term planning.
Company News
Aberdeen Minerals (PRIVATE) – Grant award from UK government for minerals processing in UK battery supply chain
- Aberdeen Minerals announced yesterday it has been awarded £294k worth of grant funding from the UK’s Automotive Transformation Fund.
- The funding provides 70% of the cost of a feasibility study in exploring processing techniques for the Arthrath Nickel-Copper-Cobalt project in Aberdeenshire.
- The Company will explore the use of Glycine Leaching Technology for the leaching of metals in a greener, cyanide-reduced process.
- Priority Drilling are set to complete a drilling programme at the site for diamond core to explore processing options, with Wardell Armstrong looking to explore processing options for the project.
- The grant funding is backed by the Department for Business and Trade alongside Innovate UK as the Country looks to progress towards net zero.
Conclusion: Aberdeen Minerals’ Arthrath Project is targeting massive nickel sulphide discovery, having generated a JORC exploration target of 20-34mt @ 0.18-0.3% Ni. The Company is hoping that deeper drilling will reveal a higher-grade, mineralised conduit system. Alongside yesterday’s grant funding for exploring processing options, Aberdeen is looking to execute more targeted, ground-based EM and downhole EM following the successful SkyTEM geophysics programme. Previous met-testwork showed current nickel sulphide mineralisation to be dominated by pentlandite and copper mineralisation hosted by chalcopyrite, providing confidence in processing, were a larger deposit to be discovered at depth.
*An SP Angel analyst has visited Aberdeen Minerals’ Arthrath Project in Scotland
Alphamin Resources (AFM CN) C$0.87, Mkt cap C$1.1bn – Q3 production report and Mpama South development update
- Alphamin, the operator of the Bisie Tin project in Northern Kivu, DRC, provides a production update for the quarter.
- Q3 production stood at 3.1kt vs 3.15kt in Q2.
- Ore processed increased by 1% but tin grade processed fell 3% to 4.08% Sn.
- The Company generated $38m in EBITDA vs $35.4m in Q2.
- AISC of $14.8k/t vs $14k/t in Q2 as diesel prices increased and underground development ramped up.
- Sustaining CAPEX increased 39%, primarily owing to ‘timing effects.’
- Alphamin has now spent $99m of cash resources on Mpama South, $24.5m spent in Q3.
- The Company expects the Mpama South development to be completed within the $116m budget.
- The development CAPEX is expected to increase production by 60% to total output of 20ktpa Sn.
- Management notes delays to the new processing facility owing to ‘poor road conditions and the impact of the damaged bridge,’ pushing completion back to January/February 2024.
- The primary access route was damaged in September, delaying transit times and revenue receipts, however this is expected to ‘reverse during Q4.’
- The Company has increased its short-term facility with its banking institution by $15m to $55m for bridging finance for provisional DRC tax payments.
- Alphamin’s capital allocation focus lies in developing Mpama South, DRC income tax payments and returning cash to shareholders.
Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) 53p, Mkt Cap £61m – Loan from the IBA
BUY
- The Company drew down $10m under its AZN55m ($32.3m) credit line with the International Bank of Azerbaijan.
- Lending facilities have been made available after the Micon environmental audit carried in July confirmed no contamination at Gedabek.
- The $10m tranche has a fixed rate of 6.5%, is repayable over 3 years in equal monthly instalments over 30 months following a six months grace period.
- The tranche follows a $3.5m drawdown from the facility in early July as a one year fixed term working capital loan with a fixed rate of 5.5%.
- In total, the Company drew down on $13.5m so far with $18.8m remaining available under the IBA facility.
- Separately, the Company drew down $5.6m term loan from Access Bank at 6% and secured against a $6.0m deposit.
- As of beginning of September, the Group had a cash balance of $20.3m and total borrowings of $19.1m.
Conclusion: Banks are willingly offering finance after the Micon environmental audit showed no contamination at Gedabek with funds used for capital projects and planned restart of operations.
*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Anglo Asian Mining
Atlantic Lithium* (ALL LN) 25p, Mkt Cap £153m – Atlantic gains approval to move power lines following visit to Ewoyaa by Hon. Samuel A. Jinapor
(Piedmonth can earn into up to 50% of the Ewoyaa lithium project through the expenditure of around 70% of the project capex)
STRONG BUY
- Atlantic Lithium reports Environmental Protection Agency approval to divert the high-tension power lines away from the southern part of the Ewoyaa lithium project.
- The move allows Atlantic Lithium to start ‘early works’ on the southern part of the license area with the power lines being moved to the northern boarder of the license area.
- Moving the transmission lines should also support the move to early production of spodumene concentrate through the rapid deployment of a modular DMS ‘Dense Media Seperation’ plant.
- In other news the company has posted an ‘official’ photograph of management with Hon. Samuel A. Jinapor, the Ghana Minister for Lands and Natural Resources and Minister of Trade and Industry.
- Also present are representatives from the Ghana Stock Exchange, the Ghana Minerals Income Investment Fund and Mincom, the Minerals Commission Ghana alongside Neil Herbert, Chairman and Keith Muller, CEO at Atlantic Lithium.
- DFS project economics:
- Throughput: ~2-2.7mtpa, Total mined ore 30.6mt
- Production ~300,000tpa of Spodumene concentrate (SC5.5 and SC6)
- NPV8 post-tax: US$1.5bn
- IRR: 105%
- Revenue US$550mpa and $6.6bn life-of-mine, Free cash flow: US$2.4bn life-of-mine, EBITDA: US$316mpa
- C1 Op costs US$377/t, AISC US$610/t
- Capex: US$185m, Payback: 19 months
- LOM: 12 years, LOM revenues increased to $6.6bn
- Assumption US$1,587/t with $1,200/dmt long term pricing for SC6% FOB Ghana Port
Conclusion: Management expect the Mining Lease to be granted shortly.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad to Atlantic Lithium. Two mining analysts from SP Angel recently visited the Ewoyaa mine site in Ghana and drove onto Takoradi to check the quality of the road to port. Our analysts also visited the Ministry of Minerals Commission and MIIF, the Ghana Minerals Income Investment Fund.
Bushveld Minerals* (BMN LN) 1.6p, Mkt Cap £20m – Response to market speculation
BUY – 7.9p
- The Company released a comment on market speculation that one of shareholders is planning to call a GM to vote on boardroom changes.
- Plans are reported to have been led by Kamran Sattar and Portillion Capital.
- The Company is reporting that it held a meeting with the shareholder to discuss his concerns following which Mr Satter confirmed he no longer intends to call a GM.
- The team remains focused on completing the restructuring of the $45m Orion convertible facility that matures in early December.
Conclusion: Having met with Kamran Sattar addressing his concerns, the management is continuing its negotiations with Orion regarding a convertible facility refinancing.
*SP Angel act as nomad and broker to Bushveld Minerals
Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) 170p, Mkt Cap £293m – Operations Update for Q3
- Central Asian Metals provides an update on Q3 operations at its Kounrad copper recovery project in Kazakhstan and the Sasa mine in North Macedonia.
- Copper production stood at 3.66kt vs 3.38kt in Q2 and 3.34kt in Q1.
- Zinc production at 5.13kt vs 4.85kt in Q2 and 4.9kt in Q1.
- Lead production fell to 7.04kt vs 7.12kt in Q2 and 6.6kt in Q1.
- The company has retained its FY guidance of 13-14kt Cu production, 19-21kt Zn and 27-29kt Pb production.
- The Group is building a 4.77MW solar farm at Kounrad and expects to commission the facility before October-end. Electricity is expected to be generated before year-end.
- At Sasa, development of the Central Decline is progressing in Phase 2, now reaching 860m.
- The Group is looking to conduct cemented backfill mining and is building a dry stack tailings plant.
Griffin Mining Ltd (GFM LN) 94.48p, Mkt Cap £180m – Successful commissioning of 6MW Solar Farm at Caijiaying zinc mine in China
(Griffin own 88.8% of the Caijiaying zinc mine)
- Grffin Mining report the successful commissioning of a 6MW Solar Farm at their Caijiaying zinc mine in China.
- The solar farm’s 25,753sqm of panels sits on the company’s rehabilitated tailings facilities.
- A battery storage system will arrive shortly to compliment the solar array.
- The facility is expected to supply up to 30% of the Caijiaying Mine’s total electrical energy consumption.
- The system will also return any surplus power to the local grid for extra revenue generation, particularly during periods of plant maintenance and shutdown.
- Griffin mining has provided all the land, approval support and an exclusive 20-year off-take agreement for a local Partner, which installed and will operate the system throughout its life.
- A further Wind and Solar farm may be built on a third tailings facility depending on an ongoing study.
- This will bring the Caijiaying zinc mine closer to the provision of 100% renewable energy.
Conclusion: It is great news for Griffin to see the successful commissioning of such a large Solar farm at Caijiaying. Solar farms will become commonplace on mines in many parts of the world reducing operating costs along with their dependence on diesel, heavy fuel oil and grid power supplies. The danger in China is that if economic growth outpaces grid power availability that mines may be asked to slow their power consumption to save power for other industry.
Mkango Resources* (MKA LN) 8.8p, Mkt Cap £21m – Maginito and CoTec plan HPMS project FS in the US
- The Company provided an update on the roll out of HyProMag rare earth magnet recycling technology in the US.
- HyProMag, a wholly owned subsidiary of Maginito (79% Mkango / 21% CoTec), uses a licensed Hydrogen Processing of Magnet Scrap (HPMS) technology developed at the University of Birmingham involving neodymium magnet recycling as well as innovative rare earth alloy, magnet, and separation solutions.
- Under the JV agreement with CoTec (50% CoTec/50% Maginito), Maginito is planning to commence preparations for the feasibility study for the US operation with a targeted completion by mid-2024.
- Operations are planned to be run using a modular, hub and spoke configuration with the initial deployment of three Hydrogen Processing of Magnet Scrap (HPMS) recycling vessels at the spokes and a central hub comprising of rare earth (NdFeB) alloy and magnet manufacturing, subject to the outcome of the Feasibility Study.
- Feasibility Study will provide a more detailed and optimised plan for an operation following up on positive results of the Scoping Study that envisaged ~$50m in annual revenues based on 500tpa NdFeB production at an assumed $100/kg price generating 35-40% EBITDA margins with an estimated capex of $30m.
- Under the agreement, CoTec will be responsible for funding all feasibility and development costs.
- Discussions with the US government, potential customers and recycling partners are reported to have commenced and are ongoing.
Conclusion: CoTec and Maginito JV is starting preparations for the FS on the HPMS project in the US that is targeted for completion by mid-2024 potentially expanding geographical reach of the HPMS technology. FS and development related costs will be funded by CoTec. Two 100tpa NdFeB HPMS demonstration plants are currently being developed that should help de-risk downstream part of the Mkango “Mine, Refine, Recycle” business strategy with one at Tyseley Energy Park in the UK (commissioning Q4/23) and one in Baden-Wurttemberg, Germany (commissioning 2024).
*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Mkango Resources
No.1 in Copper: “The winner of the 2020 Fastmarkets Apex contest for copper was the team at SP Angel comprising John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore, with an accuracy score of 93.8%”
No1. In Gold: “SP Angel’s trio took the top spot for the gold price prediction throughout the year, with an accuracy score of 97.59%”
The SP Angel team also ranked 1st in Palladium, 3rd in Tin and 5th in Silver in the fourth quarter of 2020
Analysts
John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484
Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474
Sales
Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472
Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534
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Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471
SP Angel
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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
| Sources of commodity prices | |
| Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver | BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London) |
| Gold ETFs, Steel | Bloomberg |
| Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt | LME |
| Oil Brent | ICE |
| Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore | NYMEX |
| Thermal Coal | Bloomberg OTC Composite |
| Coking Coal | SSY |
| RRE | Steelhome |
| Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite | Asian Metal |
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