SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Thursday 19th June 2025

 Gold edges lower with dollar following Powell’s inflation warnings

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Aurelia Metals (AMI AU) – Shares hit on higher OPEX guidance in Cobar region

ECR Minerals (ECR LN) – Progress report on Queensland gold exploration targets

Kenmare Resources (KMR LN) – Withdrawal from discussions on offer

Meeka Metals (MEK AU) – A$60m equity raise to boost production rates

Oriole Resources* (ORR LN) – Exploration Target at Senala

Syrah Resources (SYR AU) – Balama operations restart

Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) – Update on Jacks Copper Project

Zinnwald (ZNWD LN) – Retail offer raises additional funds

Gold ($3,367/oz) edges lower with dollar following Powell’s inflation warnings

• Gold prices have edged lower below $3,400/oz following the FOMC yesterday, with the Fed holding rates steady.
• Powell warned over continued inflation risks from tariffs, stating some of their effects ‘will fall on the end of the consumer.’
• The Fed also downgraded growth expectations.
• Dollar weak below 99 for the index whilst 10 year yields holding around 4.4%.
• Primary focus currently is on the Middle East, with traders bidding gold higher on the first signs of escalation, before taking profits as bullion hit $3,450/oz.

Chinese consumers hit by sudden closure of Youngkun gold (NY Times)

• Yongkun Asset Management, had teamed up with the state-owned Industrial and Commercial Bank of China to sell gold-backed investments to the public in China.
• Yongkun had even been praised by police for stopping scammers buying gold bars as part of a money-laundering operation.
• Customers who bought >$400,000 of gold were promised a 9% annual return.
• Investors were given certificates attesting that the gold was stored in vaults at a branch of the state-owned Bank of China.
• According to the NY Times story a BoC branch representative said “neither Yongkun Gold nor its affiliated companies had deposited gold there”.
• Last year Chinese investors bought an extra ~4moz of gold up 12% yoy.

Copper – prices retrace gains despite further withdrawal of stock from LME warehouses

• We suspect the pullback is simply a reaction to slower trade with US traders on “Juneteenth” holiday today
• Long-only funds are sitting on the sidelines due to elevated risk concerns
• Cash / 3’s Backwardation at 89.5 / 95.5 remains extraordinarily strong as consumers rush to secure physical metal over the short-term and investors hold back from buying longer term futures.
• LME copper stocks fell 4,025t to 103,325t but Comex stocks continue to increase.
• Investors are waiting for news on the US Section 232 investigation into copper imports which could spark new Tariffs on imports of physical metal into the US.
• The market is looking for a potential 25% Tariff but with a possible delay in its implementation and a potential ban on copper scrap exports.
• Some industry players are arguing for a ban or Tariffs on copper scrap exports to encourage more smelting in the US and to retain more physical metal.
• Copper consumption in China grew 7-10% yoy in the first half, despite concerns over slowing manufacturing related to US tariffs
• Codelco’s Potrerillos smelter, capacity 250,000tpa, remains offline following a chimney collapse on the SXEW acid plant potentially taking ~100,000tpa of copper out of the system.

Currencies

US$1.1521/eur vs 1.1428/eur previous. Yen 144.97/$ vs 142.70/$. SAr 18.003/$ vs 17.827/$. $1.346/gbp vs $1.353/gbp. 0.650/aud vs 0.646/aud. CNY 7.185/$ vs 7.191/$

Dollar Index 99.02 vs 98.84

US traders on “Juneteenth” holiday today – many will follow with a long weekend

• Fed held rates at 4.25%–4.50% last night.

• That was the fourth consecutive of a ‘no change’ decision.
• Jerome Powell said it is currently unclear how much of higher import duties will be transferred onto consumers in the form of higher prices.
• “Ultimately the cost of the tariff has to be paid, and some of it will fall on the end consumer…. We know hat’s coming, and we just want to see a little bit of that before we make judgments prematurely.”
• Dot plot guides for two rate cuts this year with markets assigning a 70% chance of the first one in September.
• New economic forecasts guided for weaker growth, higher unemployment and stronger inflation.
• Powell downplayed the effect of higher energy prices on inflation gauges amid a pickup in oil prices on the war between Iran and Israel in the Middle East.
• S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are trading 0.5% and 0.6% lower this morning.
• 10y yields were little changed up ~3bp from pre FOMC announcement levels and currently at 4.39%.
• US rates are expected to be 3.6% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027
• US jobs claims fell to 245,000 marginally lower than the 246,000 expected

Eurozone – CPI 1.9% in May vs 2.2% in April

• Core CPI slipped to 2.3% yoy from 2.7% yoy ex energy, food, alcohol & tobacco
• Services inflation fell to 3.2% yoy from 4.0% yoy as the post-Covid rise in prices for services slowed
• Non-energy industrial goods added +0.16%
• Energy prices fell by -0.34%
• Ursula von der Leyen has defended bypassing MEPs over her €150bn defence loan scheme (Euractiv).
• Ursula has told the European Parliament President the move is “fully justified” in response to Europe’s “existential” geopolitical challenges.

Switzerland – The centra bank cut rates to zero and does not rule out negative rates on easing inflation

• The 25bp reduction came in line with market forecasts and marks the 6th consecutive cut by officials.
• An inflow of funds into the Swiss franc as investors diversified out of the US$ post Liberation Day saw the currency touching a decade high pushing inflation rate below zero for the first time since early 2021.

• The SNB see inflation at 0.2% for the year down from 0.4% previously expected
• Q1 GDP growth was driven by inventory build in the US ahead of Trump’s tariffs
• Manufacturers are expected to see softer demand from hereon

Israel/Iran – Israel launched air strikes on inactive nuclear reactor near Arak and Natanz that hoses a uranium enrichment facility.

• Iran fired dozens of missiles with a number of hits including a hospital in southern Israel.
• US President Trump is still considering if the US should get involved directly in the conflict.
• Brent climbed higher trading over $77/bbl.
• Prices to charter large oil tankers sailing through the Strait of Hormuz have more than doubled in a week.

Precious metals:         

Gold US$3,354/oz vs US$3,380/oz previous

Gold ETFs 89.4moz vs 89.3moz previous

Platinum US$1,314/oz vs US$1,274/oz previous

Palladium US$1,047/oz vs US$1,057/oz previous

Silver US$36.3/oz vs US$37.1/oz previous

Rhodium US$5,475/oz vs US$5,425/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$9,604/t vs US$9,725/t previous

Aluminium US$2,530/t vs US$2,550/t previous

Nickel US$15,045/t vs US$15,000/t previous

Zinc US$2,617/t vs US$2,659/t previous

Lead US$1,988/t vs US$1,980/t previous

Tin US$32,075/t vs US$32,620/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$77.6/bbl vs US$76.1/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices moved higher ahead of today’s Juneteenth federal holiday in the US as traders positioned for any sign that the US might join Israel’s offensive against Iran, which would escalate the conflict.
• The EIA estimated a w/w US inventory draw of 11.5mb to crude, marginally offset by builds of 0.2mb to gasoline and 0.5mb to diesel stocks, as refinery utilisation fell 1.1% w/w to 93.2% with domestic output flat at 13.4mb/d.
• European energy prices are elevated on forecasts for warmer weather across the continent even as EU natural gas storage levels rose 2.5% w/w to 54.4% full (vs 64.5% 5-Yr average) with aggregate inventory at 616TWh.
• US Henry Hub natural gas prices edged higher as the EIA reported a 95bcf w/w build to 2,802bcf, with storage inventories now 8.0% below last year and 4.3% above the 5-year average.

Natural Gas €40.0/MWh vs €39.8/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $75.0/lb vs $74.6/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$94.4/t vs US$94.2/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$460.1/t vs US$461.0/t

HCC FOB Australia US$178.5/t vs US$178.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$111.8/t vs US$111.5/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$33,335/t vs US$33,335/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$61,054/t vs US$61,383/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$8,136/t vs US$8,143/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$610/t vs US$610/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$995/t vs US$995/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$418/mtu vs US$418/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$420/t vs US$420/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.0/lb vs US$5.0/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.4/kg vs US$24.6/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$289/t vs US$289/t

Global Rutile Spot Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,687/t vs US$1,687/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs  US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$362.5/t vs US$362.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$2,895.0/kg vs US$2,895.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg

Battery News

Company News

Aurelia Metals (AMI AU) A$0.22, Mkt Cap A$364m – Shares hit on higher OPEX guidance in Cobar region

• Gold and base metal producer Aurelia provides guidance for FY26 and outlook for FY27/28.
• Company FY2025 guidance:

• • 40-50koz Au, 2.5-3.5kt Cu, 14-20kt Zn, 13-19kt Pb

• FY26 guidance:

• • 35-45koz Au, 3-4kt Cu, 24-32kt Zn, 14-22kt Pb

• FY27 outlook:

• • 43-53koz Au, 3-4.5kt Cu, 24-32kt Zn, 14-22kt Pb

• FY28 outlook:

• • 30-40koz Au, 6-8kt Cu, 40-50kt Zn, 23-33kt Pb

• Meanwhile, operating costs to increase to A$255-285m in FY26 from A$160-180m with the introduction of Federation (Company’s base metals growth project).

ECR Minerals (ECR LN) 0.18, Mkt Cap £3.9m – Progress report on Queensland gold exploration targets

• ECR Minerals reports that it will be mobilising a drilling rig to its Blue Mountain alluvial gold project by the end of June “to test the depth to bedrock to enable a clearer understanding of the project’s geological potential”.
• Holes are expected to “be of 3 – 5 metres depth on gridlines across the core areas of the alluvial resource” although the campaign does not expect to include “representative sampling … the presence of alluvial gold will be logged to guide the program”.
• Today’s announcement also confirms plans for a bulk sampling programme at Blue Mountain and the testing of “revised wash plant modifications to optimise the Company’s future alluvial mining model” which is expected to start later this month.
• “The bulk sampling campaign will analyse the expansion, scalability, and recovery potential of the project, with drilling also targeted at areas where ECR intends, in due course, to commence operations … [and are described as] … a critical step in advancing towards production, de-risking the project, and building confidence in its long-term commercial viability”.
• The announcement also confirms plans for a 1,500m percussion drilling programme at its Lolworth gold and rare-earths project also in Queensland.
• The drilling follows what is described as an “extensive soil and stream sampling … [programme which identified] … drill-ready gold targets … at Gorge Creek West, Uncle Terry, and Gorge Diggings, with Butterfly Creek as a potential additional target”.
• Drilling is expected to start in mid-July, focussing “on near-surface gold mineralisation up to depths of 70 metres”.
• ECR Minerals also “continues its collaboration with James Cook University and the Queensland Geological Department’s Critical Minerals division to advance rare earth elements (REE) exploration, with a focus on Niobium-Tantalum mineralisation at Oaky Creek and the ridgeline zone”.
• Today’s announcement also confirms that ECR Minerals “remains on budget and on schedule across its operations … [and highlights the importance of] …. the under-budget completion of the recent Bailieston drilling campaign … [which] … has provided flexibility to accelerate activities in Queensland”.
• Welcoming the progress at Blue Mountain and the forthcoming drilling at Lolworth, Managing Director, Mike Whitlow, said that the “next two months are expected to be pivotal for ECR”.

Conclusion: Planned drilling at Blue Mountain and Lolworth as well as bulk sampling at Blue Mountain is likely to clarify the significance of the projects over the next two months.

Kenmare Resources (KMR LN) 328.5p, Mkt Cap £352m – Withdrawal from discussions on offer

• Kenmare Resources has announced that it is ending discussions with UAE-based Oryx Global Partners and Michael Carvill (the Consortium) on their proposal for an all-cash offer to acquire Kenmare.
• An announcement from Kenmare on 6^th March explained that a proposed price, of 530p/share “undervalued Kenmare’s business and its prospects”.

• Kenmare has subsequently engaged in “discussions with the Consortium and … [provided] … additional due diligence information … [however the Consortium has recently made clear] … that it would only be willing to proceed with an offer at pricing substantially below the Initial Proposal”.
• The Board and its advisors “considered the Revised Pricing and unanimously rejected it on the basis that it significantly undervalued Kenmare’s business and its prospects … and, consequently, it has terminated all discussions with the Consortium”.
• Later this morning Oryx Global Partners issued an announcement on behalf of the Consortium confirming “that it does not intend to make an offer for Kenmare Resources plc”.

Conclusion: Although both sides have confirmed the termination of the Consortium’s aspirations to acquire Kenmare Resources it remains to be seen whether the discontinued offer has increased Kenmare’s profile sufficiently to attract interest from others.

Meeka Metals (MEK AU) A$0.15, Mkt Cap A$440m – A$60m equity raise to boost production rates

• Australian gold producer Meeka Metals has raised A$60m via an equity placing at a 10% discount to the 10 day VWAP.
• The funds will be used to mobilise a third open pit mining fleet for expanded production at Turnberry.
• Funds will also be used to accelerate open pit growth drilling, targeting shallow oxide gold and recommencing underground diamond drilling to extend the high-grade resource.
• Company will also buy gold put options to provide a form of hedging structure.
• Additionally, Meeka will work on a processing plant expansion study to boost throughput above 600ktpa.
• Murchison Gold Project holds:

• • 1.2moz Au at 3g/t Au in resources and 400koz at 3.1g/t Au in Reserves.

• Meeka is led by ex-Silver Lake Resources team.
• Meeka has reported a 10 year production plan showing:

• • 65kozpa Au production first 7 years at average head grades of 3g/t Au.
  • At US$2,650/oz gold,:

• • • NPV8 post-tax of A$444m
    • AISC of $1,283/oz

Oriole Resources* (ORR LN) 0.21p, Mkt Cap £8.3m – Exploration Target at Senala

• Oriole provides an update on their Senegal JV with Managem, with Oriole owning 35% in Senala via its 85% interest in the Stratex vehicle.
• The Company reports an updated JORC Exploration Target for Faré:

o   17-24mt at 0.69-0.84g/t Au for 380-650koz Au

• The Estimate includes tonnage to the northeast and southwest of the current pit-constrained resource, alongside additional tonnage directly around the MRE>
• Estimate lies outside of the 2021 MRE for Faré South at 3.9mt at 1.26g/t Au for 155koz Au inferred.
• The JV party has completed 4,854m of RC drilling and 2,148m of diamond drilling, with highlight intersections including:

o   11m at 1.22g/t Au, 35m at 3.61g/t Au (inc. 18m at 6.5g/t Au)

• The two parties are currently finalising a JV agreement for further exploration at the project.

*SP Angel acts as Broker to Oriole Resources

Syrah Resources (SYR AU) A$0.28, Mkt Cap A$271m – Balama operations restart

• The Company resumes production at the Balama Graphite Mine in Mozambique.
• Restart follows a restoration of access in May 2025 with subsequent remobilisation, inspection, maintenance and preparatory activities.
• Operations were suspended since September 2024 amid weak fines market demand and protests driven by a group of farmers disputing farmland resettlement with resolution later impacted by broader protests related to national general elections.
• Operations will gradually ramp up ahead of a breakbulk shipment planned for ex-China in September quarter.
• Force majeure remains in force pending a restart of product shipments and further review of the operating environment.

Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) 0.033p, Mkt Cap £1.22m – Update on Jacks Copper Project

• Tertiary has provided an update on their Jacks Project, which is targeting sedimentary copper within the Lower Roan Subgroup in Zambia.
• Tertiary has access to a large dataset including regional soil sampling completed by First Quantum, as well as historic drilling results.
• A fold structure with several copper-in-soil anomalies along the fold limbs has been identified over 18km in strike.
• Tertiary drilled in 2022 which yielded:

• • 14m at 0.8% from 27m
  • 1.8% Cu over 6m from 105m

• Historic drilling had yielded

• • 12m at 0.76% Cu from 18m
  • 10m at 0.35% Cu from 68m
  • 14m at 0.96% Cu from 113m
  • 14m at 1% Cu from 113m
  • 7m at 1.54% from 322m

• Workstreams were paused following the acquisition of Cyprus by Phelps Dodge.
• Drilling had suggested the presence of two separate zones of copper mineralisation from near surface but, importantly, with significant depth potential.
• Tertiary considers the asset drill-ready and will look to boost their understanding of the fold hinge area.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Tertiary Minerals

Zinnwald (ZNWD LN) 5.0p, Mkt Cap £24m – Retail offer raises additional funds

• Retail offer raises £236k at 5p.
• The offer was launched on Tuesday and closed yesterday.
• The offer price represents a ~9% discount to the closing price on Monday and is equal to the price of the larger £3.2m placing announced on Tuesday.
• Together with a larger placing total gross proceeds come in at ~£3.4m.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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