SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Thursday 2nd October 2025 - Share Talk

SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Thursday 2nd October 2025

US EIA warns of nuclear fuel shortages over next 10 years 

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Bezant Resources (BZT LN) – Further reductions in Blackstone Minerals’ holding

Desoto Resources* (DES AU) – JV agreement with Fortuna for US$12.5m exploration expenditure

ECR Minerals (ECR LN) – Proposed acquisition of Queensland alluvial gold project

Kenmare Resources(KMR LN) – Fatality at Moma

Largo (LGO CN) – Conditional debt principal payments deferral

NGEx Minerals (NGEX CN) – C$175m placing to support Lunahuasi

NexGen (NXE US) – Major equity raise to support Rook I project development

Omai Gold (OMG CN) – Upsizing placement to C$40m

Prospector Metals (PPP CN) – Discovery hit in the Yukon returns 44m at 13.8g/t Au, 1.84% Cu

Uranium ($83.1/lb) US EIA warns of nuclear fuel shortages over next 10 years

  • The US EIA is warning of a developing shortage of nuclear fuel over the next 10 years as mine supply fails to keep pace with expected increases in demand.
  • US reactors are likely to see uranium shortages as demand for power from AI and industrial growth require greater nuclear power generation.
  • Rising uranium prices have caused energy companies to delay contracts to buy nuclear fuels pushing more future buying into the spot market.
  • The EIA see a deficit of 184mlbs or 3 years consumption potentially forcing utilities to acquire their own mine and processing capacity.
  • Substantial physical above-ground stocks may have relaxed some buyers in the knowledge that substantial stocks of uranium yellowcake are available for processing if required.
    • Yellow Cake PLC (YCA LN)
    • Sprott Uranium Trust (U.UN)
    • Sprott Physical Uranium ETC (SPUT)
  • Kazatomprom JSC (KAP GDR London) also developed a substantial stockpile following the Fukushima disaster when Japan closed all its nuclear reactors for checks. Now these reactors are restarting and uranium prices are higher Kazatomprom may be running down this inventory.
  • US utilities may have also stocked up ahead of a total ban on buying enriched nuclear fuel supplies from Russia.
  • US utilities bought 55.9mlbs of U3O8e last year at $52.71/lb up 8% on 51.6mlbs in 2023.
  • Sources into the US:
    • Canada 36%
    • Kazakhstan 24%
    • Australia 17%
    • Uzbekistan 9%
    • US domestic supply 8%
    • Namibia and Russian 4%
  • 21 new purchase contracts were signed for 3mlbs last year for delivery at $86.2/lb for delivery in 2024.
  • Maximum uranium deliveries for 2025 through 2034 under existing purchase contracts for civilian owner/operators totalled 234mlbs at end-2024
  • Contracted deliveries and unfilled market requirements combined represent the maximum anticipated market requirements of 418mlbs over the next 10 years for civilian owner/operators.
  • Enriched uranium:
  • In 2024, civilian owner/operators delivered 42mlbs of natural uranium feed to US and foreign enrichers of which US enrichment suppliers received 28% of the feed.

Copper ($10,458/t) pushes higher as Grasberg supply shock sets in and dollar weakens

  • Copper LME prices are holding around their recent highs, having jumped 5% in September.
  • Freeport-s force majeure at Grasberg has reeled copper markets, with analysts slashing supply forecasts in 2026 and 2027.
  • China factory data remains weak, but markets are focusing on supply disruptions over tepid demand currently.

European steelmakers rally as the EU guides for increase tariffs and import crackdown

  • Strong performance from European steelmakers, with Arcelor Mittal (6%), SSAB (11%) Aperam (13%) and Salzgitter (12%) all jumping sharply yesterday
  • Reports suggest the European Commission set to reduce existing quotas for foreign steel by up to 50% and ramp up tariffs on imports
  • Steelmakers have been struggling with weak European domestic demand and rising cheap imports from China and other parts of Asia.
  • Expect this will need to be approved by the European Council and EU parliament, expect strong support, possible for implementation in January, likely later
  • Seeing signs of improving domestic demand, with lower interest rates set to provide some support
  • 2025 expected to see a fourth consecutive year of declining steel consumption, although this is expected to rebound in 2026

6.9 Earthquake in Philippines kills >60 in Central Cebu province

  • At least 69 people were killed by a powerful earthquake that struck the Philippines on Tuesday.
Dow Jones Industrials +0.09% at 46,441
Nikkei 225 +0.87% at 44,937
HK Hang Seng +1.72% at 27,318
Shanghai Composite +0.52% at 3,883
US 10 Year Yield (bp change) +0.8 at 4.11

Economics

US – Equity futures are trading at record high levels as markets reiterate expectations for more cuts from the Fed.

  • Absent suspension of the government shutdown, NFPs that were due this Friday likely to be postponed.
  • Meanwhile, ADP employment report showed a surprising dip (-32k) in September while August 54k advance was revised to a small decline.
  • Yields pulled back on the news with forecasts for the central bank to cut by 25bp at each of two meetings left before year end.
  • The Supreme Court refused to approve immediate firing of Lisa Cook.
  • The court deferred the decision until the justices heard oral arguments in the case in January 2026.
  • Lisa Cook to remain part of the voting FOMC until then.

OpenAI raised new equity at a record US$500bn valuation making it the world’s most valuable startup.

UK – The OBR to submit its economic forecasts on Friday with expected productivity downgrades to weigh further on the budget. (FT)

  • A productivity revision may deduct up to £18bn contributing to an overall fiscal hole of some £30bn.
  • A less severe downgrade to productivity may still erase £9.9bn from the Cabinet’s “headroom”.
  • Earlier U-turn on welfare and raises in interest costs would add to the budget shortfall.

Russia/Ukraine – The US to share intelligence for long range strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure.

  • The decision comes as White House considers providing Kyiv with long range missiles.
  • New arrangement is reported to make it easier for Ukraine to target refineries, pipelines, power stations and other critical infrastructure.
  • The US is trying to put pressure on Kremlin to agree to a ceasefire.

Currencies

US$1.1753/eur vs 1.1755/eur previous. Yen 147.08/$ vs 147.22/$. SAr 17.196/$ vs 17.251/$. $1.350/gbp vs $1.346/gbp. 0.662/aud vs 0.661/aud. CNY 7.121/$ vs 7.121/$.

Dollar Index 97.60 vs   97.58 previous.

Precious metals:

Gold US$3,873/oz vs US$3,873/oz previous

Gold ETFs 97.2moz vs 96.9moz previous

Platinum US$1,579/oz vs US$1,582/oz previous

Palladium US$1,273/oz vs US$1,257/oz previous

Silver US$47.5/oz vs US$47.3/oz previous

Rhodium US$7,100/oz vs US$7,125/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$10,459/t vs US$10,311/t previous

Aluminium US$2,711/t vs US$2,690/t previous

Nickel US$15,245/t vs US$15,255/t previous

Zinc US$3,015/t vs US$2,973/t previous

Lead US$2,023/t vs US$1,994/t previous

Tin US$36,215/t vs US$35,575/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$65.4/bbl vs US$66.4/bbl previous

  • Crude oil prices edged lower as the EIA estimated w/w US inventory builds of 1.8mb to crude, 4.1mb to gasoline and 0.6mb to distillate stocks, as refinery utilisation fell 1.9% to 91.4% on domestic output of 13.5mb/d.
  • Parex announced average 3Q25 production up 3.5% q/q to 44kboe/d supported by strong base asset performance, growth at LLA-32, and positive exploration results, offset by lower production at Capachos.ac
  • The SP Angel Energy Team, Richard HailStuart Gledhill and David Mirzai, is currently in Cape Town for Africa Energy Week. If you are attending, please get in touch to arrange a catch up over a suitable beverage.

Henry Hub Gas US$3.44/mmBtu vs US$3.37/mmBtu yesterday

Natural Gas €31.6/MWh vs €31.4/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $83.1/lb vs $81.9/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$103.5/t vs US$103.4/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$449.1/t vs US$449.1/t

HCC FOB Australia US$190.0/t vs US$191.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$107.6/t vs US$108.6/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$35,000/t vs US$35,000/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$78,917/t vs US$78,917/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$10,012/t vs US$10,012/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$830/t vs US$830/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,015/t vs US$1,015/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$593/mtu vs US$593/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$93/lb vs US$93/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$400/t vs US$400/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.4/lb vs US$5.4/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.6/kg vs US$23.6/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$270/t vs US$270/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,979/t vs US$2,979/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,102/t vs US$1,102/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$352.5/t vs US$352.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,075.0/kg vs U S$3,075.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg

EV & battery news

Overnight Change Weekly Change Overnight Change Weekly Change
BHP 1.1% 0.6% Freeport-McMoRan -0.3% 3.8%
Rio Tinto 1.2% 1.9% Vale 1.1% 1.4%
Glencore 1.1% 3.4% Newmont Mining 1.9% 3.0%
Anglo American 1.8% 5.3% Fortescue 1.3% 0.3%
Antofagasta 1.5% 5.5% Teck Resources 0.8% 10.5%

Company news

Bezant Resources (BZT LN) 0.05p, Mkt cap £8.9m – Further reductions in Blackstone Minerals’ holding

  • Bezant Resources reports that, since its announcement of 17th September that it had sold £179,000 of shares in the owner of the Mankayan project in the Philippines, ASX-listed Blackstone Minerals, it has reduced its interest further.
  • Today’s announcement confirms the sale of a further ~53.4m shares in Blackstone Minerals for proceeds of ~£1.84m.
  • The sale leaves Bezant resources holding ~80.6m shares in Blackstone Minerals representing around 4.8% of the ~1.7bn issued shares reported on Blackstone Minerals’ website.
  • According to Blackstone Minerals website, the Mankayan copper/gold porphyry, located in Northern Luzon, hosts a “JORC-compliant mineral resource of 793 million tonnes at 0.65% copper equivalent, containing 2.8 million tonnes of copper, 9.7 million ounces of gold, and 21 million ounces of silver”.

Desoto Resources* (DES AU) A$0.18, Mkt Cap C$33m – JV agreement with Fortuna for US$12.5m exploration expenditure

  • Guinean explorer Desoto signed a JV agreement with Fortuna Mining earlier this week.
  • The binding HoA builds an exploration alliance to find and acquire new permits in the Siguiri Basin, Guinea.
  • The JV board will hold four directors, two from each party,
  • The JV will see a Project Generation Phase, covering 36 months to identify ‘significant discoveries warranting further development.’
  • Once a ‘Go Project’ is identified, the JVCo will become a formal JV, with Fortuna holding 70% and Desoto holding 30%.
  • The JV agreement does not include any of Desoto’s current licences.

*An SP Angel analyst holds shares in Desoto Resources

ECR Minerals (ECR LN) 0.22, Mkt Cap £4.7m – Proposed acquisition of Queensland alluvial gold project

  • Yesterday afternoon, ECR Minerals reported that it is currently undertaking ‘due diligence’ on the potential acquisition of an alluvial gold project, the Raglan Project, close to its existing Blue Mountain alluvial gold project in Queensland.
  • The Raglan Project includes a mining lease over ~300 acres (~120 hectares) as well as a “60 tonne-per-hour wash plant with under 1,000 hours of operational history, trommel, concentrator, gold room, fuel storage, several mobile mining vehicles, and supporting infrastructure – delivering a turnkey production-ready operation”.
  • Yesterday’s announcement explains that the Raglan project has a history of producing “coarse alluvial gold, and recent prospecting has confirmed the continued presence of gold-bearing gravels”.
  • During the current exclusive period to undertake ‘due diligence’ ECR Minerals is focussing on “site investigations where ECR will operate the plant and machinery and conduct a series of bulk samples to be satisfied on the gold prospectivity of the project”.
  • “Subject to the on-site investigations proceeding in line with expectations and the completion of the Subscription … [for £0.65m] … ECR intends to enter into binding transaction documentation to acquire the Raglan Project and assume full operations”.
  • The proposed transaction includes an agreed purchase price of ~£0.53m and is structured so that it should “enable ECR’s existing tax losses of some A$75 million to be applied against any future profits generated from the Raglan Project”.
  • In addition to the Subscription, ECR proposes to raise up to a further £100,000 via a retail offer at the same 0.2p/share price as the Subscription.
  • Chairman, Nick Tulloch, explained that the “Raglan Project offers synergies with our existing operations at the Blue Mountain Project and the potential to fast-track gold recovery”.
  • He also clarified that “we had expected to acquire or build the necessary plant and equipment to operate the Blue Mountain Project. This Proposed Acquisition can essentially be considered to be part of that budget, while also providing additional assets and realisable benefits – most notably moving to alluvial gold production on a faster timescale”.

Conclusion: Plans to acquire the Raglan project, which is close to the company’s Blue Mountain alluvial gold project has the potential to accelerate initial gold production and bring in an existing treatment plant.

Kenmare Resources(KMR LN) 311.5p, Mkt Cap £278m – Fatality at Moma

  • Kenmare Resources reports the death of a police officer at its Moma minerals sands operation in northern Mozambique.
  • The fatality follows “significant head trauma” following an assault on the officer who was guarding “the Mine’s water pump station in Pilivili, approximately 16 km from Moma’s Mineral Separation Plant”.
  • “The incident appears to have been motivated by theft, with the electrical cable that feeds the pump station stolen”.
  • Expressing “sincere condolences to the police officer’s family, friends and colleagues … [Managing Director, Tom Hickey, confirmed that Kenmare Resources is] … actively supporting the investigation and working closely with the Police of the Republic of Mozambique.”
  • He emphasised the company’s commitment to the “wellbeing of all those involved in our work, including those maintaining law and order”.

Largo (LGO CN) C$2.3, Mkt Cap C$144m – Conditional debt principal payments deferral

  • The Company agreed a debt repayment deferral with five Brazilian lenders representing $84.2m in outstanding liabilities.
  • Principal repayment to be deferred to March 18 2026 and an automatic rollover to September 18 2026.
  • The agreement is subject to Largo securing new capital of at least C$30m by November 17 2025.
  • 80% of new capital secured greater than C$30m for debt repayments.
  • The Company has announced working capital liquidity issues affecting its shipments of vanadium products.
  • Additionally, the Company highlighted negative effect of introduced 50% tariffs on Brazilian shipments into the US that resulted in delayed shipments of high purity vanadium and defaults to US customers.
  • The team has been actively lobbying the YS government to exempt vanadium products from tariffs.
  • The Company was in discussions with affected customers and was evaluating different short term financing solutions.
  • Largo operates one of the few primary vanadium operations (Maraca Menchen Mine in Brazil) that has been struggling amid low vanadium prices.

NGEx Minerals (NGEX CN) C$27, Mkt Cap C$5.5bn – C$175m placing to support Lunahuasi

  • NGEx, who hold the Lunahuasi and Los Helados projects in Argentina, have upsized a placing.
  • The Company increased the original C$100m placing to C$175m.
  • The Lundin family will subscribe for C$100m.
  • Funds will be used for the Phase 4 drilling at Lunahuasi, alongside application for Argentina’s RIGI programme.
  • NGEx plans to begin an exploration adit to expand drilling further.
  • Phase 4 drilling will see eight drill rigs and 25,000m of diamond drilling to add to the 43,249m drilled since 2023.
  • Drilling will include:
    • Short-range resource definition, targeting Mars, Saturn and Jupiter zones for expansion and resource definition
    • Mid-range step-out drilling to extend mineralised intersections and discover new high-grade zones.
    • Long-range exploration to test anomalies and district scale targets.
  • Additionally, NGEx intends to spin out a RoyaltyCo, which will hold a 1% NSR on Lunahuasi and a 1.38% NSR on Los Helados.
  • Shareholders will receive ¼ share LunR Royalties for each NGEx share held.

NexGen (NXE US) C$13, Mkt Cap C$7.2bn – Major equity raise to support Rook I project development

  • NexGen, uranium developer in Canada, reports a capital raise.
  • The Company has launched a bought deal for 33.1m new shares at C$12.08, to raise C$400m.
  • Additionally, they report an underwriting agreement for 30.5m new shares in Australia for gross proceeds of A$400m.
  • Net proceeds will be used to advance Rook engineering, pre-production capital costs and general corporate purposes.
  • Rook Project:
    • 4.6mt at 2.37% U3O8 for 240mlb U3O8
    • Average annual LOM production of 19.8mlb U3O8
    • Mill capacity of 1,300tpd, CAPEX at C$2.2bn.
    • LOM average annual OPEX at US$10.4/lb U3O8
    • LOM 12 years, post-tax NPV8 of C$6.32bn and 45.2% IRR at US$95/lb

Omai Gold (OMG CN) C$1.25, Mkt Cap C$791m – Upsizing placement to C$40m

  • Omai Gold, who hold the Omai project in Guyana, have upsized their placing.
  • The Company will offer 34.8m new shares at C$1.15/share, with the option to sell an additional C$1.5m worth of new shares.
  • Omai’s Deposit – includes Gilt Creek and Wenot
    • 31.9mt at 2.07g/t Au for 2.1moz Au Indicated
    • 69.6mt at 1.95g/t Au for 4.4moz Au inferred
  • Wenot deposit
    • 20.1mt at 1.46g/t Au for 969koz indicated open pit
    • 62.3mt at 1.78g/t Au for 3.6moz inferred open pit
  • Gilt Creek underground
    • 11.1mt at 3.2g/t Au for 1.15moz Au indicated
    • 6.2mt at 3.4g/t Au for 665koz Inferred
  • Company is aiming to deliver a PEA, with drilling focused on in-fill at Wenot, with four diamond drill rigs on site.
  • Engineering studies are ongoing at Gilt Creek, with ramp and mine design underway.
  • Metallurgical testwork and tailings assessments ongoing.
  • PEA guided for late 2025, factoring in both Wenot open pit and Gilt Creek underground.
  • Company targeting an upsized 15-20 year LOM with throughput of 14-15ktpd.

Prospector Metals (PPP CN) C$1.2, Mkt Cap C$114m – Discovery hit in the Yukon returns 44m at 13.8g/t Au, 1.84% Cu

  • Yukon gold explorer reports drilling results from its ML Project.
  • Today marked drilling in the North Vein region of the project, which is being tested for the first time for multiple stakced or parallel gold-bearing structures.
  • Management report they have identified a new zone of high-grade and copper mineralisation, Tess.
  • Assay highlights include:
    • ML25-031: 44m at 13.8g/t Au, 1.84% Cu and 38.1g/t Ag from 62m (inc. 14m at 4.6g/t Au, 3.76% Cu and 74g/t Ag from 62m) and 25m at 22g/t Au, 1.14% Cu and 25.6g/t Ag (inc. 1m at 288g/t Au from 104m)
  • The hole also intersected the previously identified North Vein, returning 1.4m at 21g/t Au, 2.48% Cu and 44.5g/t Ag from 144m.
  • Management note high-grade mineralisation at Tess is associated with coarse-grained Bi-Te minerals and fine grained visible gold.
  • Sulphide mineralisation extends over 50m with disseminated to massive arsenopyrite-chalcopyrite-pyrite-pyrrhotite.
  • Management believes the high-grade zone is coincident with a diagnostic surface geochemical signature, which tracks over 500m on surface.
  • The Exploration Team suggests the potential for ‘very high-grade mineralisation on the margins of the systems outside of the ‘typical’ intrusive host rocks.’
  • Management plan to scale up drilling to 20,000m, with three rigs.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street

London, W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

Sources of commodity prices  
Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London)
Gold ETFs, Steel Bloomberg
Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt LME
Oil Brent ICE
Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore NYMEX
Thermal Coal Bloomberg OTC Composite
Coking Coal SSY
RRE Steelhome
Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, Rutile Asian Metal

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