SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Thursday 25th September 2025

Copper jumps after Freeport warns of production hit at Grasberg following mud rush

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) – BUY – 303p (from 333p) – Interims show return to profit on course for stronger 2H25

Blencowe Resources (BRES LN) – Drilling results from the Orom Cross graphite project, Uganda

Cobra Resources (COBR LN) – Half year results describe progress at the Boland rare-earths project and the option on the Manna Hill copper project

First Tin (1SN LN) – Participation in indium bioleaching research

Freeport McMoran (FCX US) – Update on Grasberg after wet mud flow incident

Oscillate PLC (MUSH LN) – Revised acquisition terms for Kalahari Copper’s Namibian copper portfolio, as well as the Botswanan copper portfolio

Petra Diamonds (PDL LN) – Refinancing proposal timetable

Rio2 Ltd* (RIO CN) – Desalinated water strategy to boost production to >300kozpa

SolGold (SOLG LN) – Annual report describes progress on a combined strategy for open-pit and underground mining at Cascabel

Versamet Royalties (VMET CN) –Acquisition of streams and royalties from Appian

Yellow Cake (YCA LN) – Upsized placing raises £130m to exercise uranium purchase option with Kazatomprom

Copper ($10,445/t) jumps after Freeport warns of production hit at Grasberg following mud rush

• Copper prices have jumped $500/t this week following a mud flow incident at Freeport’s Grasberg block cave.
• This has seen Freeport declare Force Majeure and is expected to see considerable production guidance downgrades going forward.
• Grasberg is the second largest copper mine globally, has guided to 35% lower production in 2026.
• Expect tighter copper supply/demand balances going forward, with WoodMac estimating a cut of 1.2% of global mine supply for 2026.
• WoodMac had already modelled a deficit for 2026, seeing price support coming from supply shortages and weaker USD.
• Grasberg’s shutdown follows Hudbay’s Constancia on Tuesday, and the summer’s supply shock when Kamoa-Kakula operations were hit by seismic activity and flooding.
• El Teniente saw a deadly tunnel collapse in July, with Codelco stating this week that it is taking longer to return to full production than originally forecast.
• El Teniente output expected to fall to 300kt this year from 356kt in 2024.
• Elsewhere, Teck’s QB2 is struggling with drainage issues, with the Company suspending all growth CAPEX projects to focus on fixing the asset.

Conclusion: Things are getting interesting in copper, with several major supply disruptions occurring this year and Freeport’s Grasberg expected to struggle to ramp up production to pre-accident levels for several years. The market was expected to be tight before 2025, but hits to Kamoa, QB2, El Teniente and Grasberg have the potential to create a perfect storm for copper prices going forward. Concentrate supply remains constrained vs smelter appetite. Demand remains consistent and growing as the electrification trend continues.

Copper Stocks We Like:

• Anglo Asian Mining*: see note below, ramping up Demirli mine
• Lundin Mining: developing Vicuna district alongside BHP
• Amerigo Resources: reprocessing tailings at Codelco’s El Teniente mine, high-yield story
• First Quantum: Reinforced balance sheet following deleveraging, upside to Cobre Panama deal
• Marimaca Copper: MOD project low-capital intensity heap leach, upside to Pampa Medina sulphide exploration programme
• GreenX Metals Exploring for copper in Germany, seeking Kupferschiefer-style copper mineralisation
• Oscillate Metals: Early-stage exploration in Namibia and Botswana
• Tertiary Minerals*: Large land package in Zambia, working with KoBold and First Quantum in JV
• Phoenix Copper*: Small-scale copper project in Idaho progressing financing

Economics

US – New home sales unexpectedly jump at the strongest rate since early 2022 helped by price cuts and sales incentives.

• Single family home sales climbed 20.5%yoy to a 800k annualised rate.
• Inventories of new homes for sale decreased to 490k units, the lowest for the year.
• Growth in house prices has been coming down for nearly a year and a half now hitting 2.1% in June, down from over 7% in early 2024.

Japan – Former BOJ board member expects a rate hike at the next policy meeting in October.

• Expectations for a hike have been building up as inflation held steady and the economy showed resilience even in the face of higher US trade tarfiffs.
• Markets are currently pricing in a ~55% chance of a 25bp hike in October, alternatively, nearly a 80% chance of a rate increase in December.
• The yen is little changed at 148.8.

Germany – Consumer confidence improves slightly in October but continues to struggle matching Covid lows.

• The sentiment stagnated lately running at significantly depressed levels compared to pre Covid and pre Russia/Ukraine war.
• GfK Consumer Sentiment (Oct/Sep/Est): -22.3/-23.5/-23.3

France – Consumer confidence remained weak through September amid budget crisis and political uncertainty.

• Similar to Germany, current consumer sentiment gauge is running at seriously depressed levels, less than Covid lows.
• Consumer Confidence (Sep/Aug/Est): 87/87/87.

Australia -Strong inflation reduce odds of further cuts by the RBA.

• CPI came at the higher end of the RBA range for 2-3% with strong inflation reported to be largely driven by housing costs.
• The data is likely to see the central bank to vote for no change in rates at the next meeting with some economists scrapping calls for a November rate cut.
• CPI (%yoy, Aug/Jul/Est): 3.0/2.8/2.9

Currencies

US$1.1743/eur vs 1.1789/eur previous. Yen 148.70/$ vs 148.09/$. SAr 17.344/$ vs 17.239/$. $1.346/gbp vs $1.348/gbp. 0.659/aud vs         0.662/aud. CNY 7.127/$ vs 7.120/$.

Dollar Index 97.79 vs 97.47 previous.

Precious metals:

Gold US$3,751/oz vs US$3,777/oz previous

Gold ETFs 96.1moz vs 96.2moz previous

Platinum US$1,498/oz vs US$1,483/oz previous

Palladium US$1,222/oz vs US$1,225/oz previous

Silver US$44.4/oz vs US$44.2/oz previous

Rhodium US$7,150/oz vs US$7,125/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$10,326/t vs US$9,969/t previous

Aluminium US$2,644/t vs US$2,636/t previous

Nickel US$15,435/t vs US$15,310/t previous

Zinc US$2,924/t vs US$2,879/t previous

Lead US$2,001/t vs US$2,000/t previous

Tin US$34,490/t vs US$34,275/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$69.0/bbl vs US$67.7/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices edged higher as the EIA estimated w/w US inventory draws of 0.6mb to crude, 1.1mb to gasoline and 1.7mb to distillate stocks, as refinery utilisation fell 0.3% to 93.3% on domestic output of 13.5mb/d.
• European energy prices were stable as EU natural gas storage levels rose 1% w/w to 82% full (vs 88.5% 5-Yr average) with aggregate inventory at 934TWh and both Italy and France now with gas storage levels above 90% full.

Natural Gas €32.3/MWh vs €32.2/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $83.0/lb vs $81.0/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$106.0/t vs US$106.3/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$450.2/t vs US$450.9/t

HCC FOB Australia US$187.0/t vs US$188.3/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$105.1/t vs US$105.3/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$34,550/t vs US$34,550/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$80,051/t vs US$82,379/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$10,075/t vs US$10,085/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$830/t vs US$830/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,015/t vs US$1,015/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$593/mtu vs US$593/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$92/lb vs US$92/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$400/t vs US$400/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.4/lb vs US$5.4/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.7/kg vs US$23.7/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$270/t vs US$270/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,979/t vs US$2,979/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,101/t vs US$1,103/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$352.5/t vs US$352.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,075.0/kg vs US$3,075.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg

EV & battery news

US EV sales continue to surge as $7,500 tax credit nears expiry

• EV sales hit record levels in August, with new EV sales up 17.7% yoy and used EV sales up 59%.
• Federal EV tax credits which were $7,500 for new EVs and $4,000 for used EVs are set to expire next week under Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
• Cars.com data shows EV demand up 33% yoy; used EVs now sit just 46 days on dealer lots, down nearly 30%.
• Dealers are also slashing lease rates to clear inventory.
• VW Denver has offered leases for as little as $40/month.
• Early data from September indicate it may be the biggest EV sales month in US history with October sales expected to drop sharply as credits end.
• EV share of new car sales reached a record 9.9% in August, up from 9.1% in July.

Volvo to build extended-range EVs in US as it delays full EV

• Volvo will produce an extended-range EV (EREV) at its South Carolina plant by the end of the decade.
• EREVs are plug-in hybrids with a small internal combustion engine to recharge the EV battery for more range, but otherwise run as an EV.
• Volvo is investing $1.3bn to expand the plant, aiming for 50% higher output in 5 years.
• The shift comes as tariffs and weak EV demand force Volvo to delay its EV-only goal from 2030 to 2040.
• Other automakers including Ford, Ram, Hyundai, Nissan and Scout are also pivoting to EREVs.

Company news

Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) 200p, Mkt Cap £228m – Interims show return to profit on course for stronger 2H25

BUY – 303p (from 333p)

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• The Company released interims highlighting a return to profit and commissioning of two new assets as part of the growth strategy.
• At Gedabek, the team commissioned a higher grade underground Gilar Gold/Copper Mine.
• First ore produced in March and commercial production declared in May with mining rates ramping up to planned 50-60ktpm. Ground conditions and water are well managed.
• Gilar delivered ~107kt at 0.99% Cu and 1.23 Au in 1H25.
• The team reported that higher than expected processed copper grades caused clogging of the thickener and filter press.
• The plan is to stockpile higher grade material and process lower to medium grade ore while flotation plant upgrades are carried out.
• Upgrades to be completed before year end.
• Financials

• Gedabek produced 16koz GEOs (1H24: 5koz) following a restart of FLO and AGL circuits in late 2024.
• Gold and copper production 12koz and 1.2kt (1H24: 5koz and 0.1kt).
• Gold sales (post 12.75% PSA) 10koz at an average realised price $3,077/oz (1H24: 6koz at $2,174/oz).
• Copper concentrate sales (post 12.75% PSA) generated $10.4m (1H24: $0.5m).
• Revenues $40.9m (1H24: $13.4m).
• EBITDA $15.8m (1H24: -$2.4m).
• PAT $4.7m (1H24: -$4.1m).
• FCF $2.8m (1H24: -$3.9m).
• Capex $8.6m (1H24: $7.1m) with major spends including Demirli ($3.8m) and Gilar ($3.6m).
• Net debt $15.7m (FY24: $16.9m) including $11.3m in cash (including US$6.0m restricted cash) and $27.0m debt (incl leases).
• No interim dividend declared as the Company invests into the growth pipeline.

• At Demirli, team have done well launching production in July, only around a year after securing access to the site in the summer of 2024, with estimates for 4kt Cu (2025) and 15kt (2026).
• Since gaining access, the team connected facilities to water and power, refurbished control systems, tested key equipment, assessed the existing tailings dam and identified the site for new second dam (to be commissioned 2026).
• Exploration to follow at Demirli with a view to extend the life of mine leveraging off first mover advantage in the region.
• The team signed a lease agreement with authorities for the use of the Demirli flotation plant and associated infrastructure in recognition of government efforts to reclaim production facilities post military operations and bring in Demirli into the portfolio of Group assets.
• Conditions include:

• The lease expected to be issued by the end of the year.
• Once the lease is secured, the Company can sell Demirli concentrate.
• Initial three year term and can be extended, the Company to give 12 months’ notice at any time.
• The minimum rent is $15mpa.
• The base rent is $24mpa ($2m pm) and can be reduced in the event that 75% * Revenue – (OPEX + CAPEX) is less than $24m, subject to a minimum rent.
• The rent increases to 15% * Revenue – $4m in the event that 15% * Revenue exceeds $28m and 75% * Revenue – (OPEX + CAPEX) exceeds $28m.
• Lease payments are PSA and tax deductible.
• Net effect of $24m base rate level on earnings and CFs, on our estimates, is ~$8mpa post adjustment for PSA (51% deduction) and corporate taxes.

• At Xarxar, the next growth project to come online, preliminary mine design and process selection studies are underway ahead of first production in 2027/28.
• At Garadag, mining method and processing method studies are also in progress.
• Team expanded to match growing number of operating assets and growth pipeline assets including a new Director of Mining, a Geology Director and a Senior Mining Engineer.
• FY25 updated guidance is expected to be provided in due course accounting for an upgrade to flotation plant allowing to accommodate higher copper grades in the Gilar feed and final assessment of Demirli planned production.

Conclusion: Interims highlight major milestones achieved during the period including returning to profitability as both FLO and AGL circuits resumed operations and commissioning of two new mining operations (Gilar and Demirli) without any equity dilution. 2H25 is set to build upon strong momentum and deliver a major increase in earnings and FCF driven by stronger production and record high gold and robust copper prices. While the Company is yet to release FY25 production guidance, assuming 4kt copper from Demirli, we currently envisage 43koz GEOs in 2H25, >2.5x 1H25. Net debt position is well managed (1.2x LTM EBITDA and 0.5x annualised 1H25 EBITDA) and is set to fall further offering further flexibility for the Company addressing funding for Xarxar/Garadag.

Special mention required for the lease agreement with the government for the use of Demirli flotation plant and associated infrastructure. On our estimates for ~18ktpa gross copper production at assumed $11,000/t copper price, annual rent is ~$24mpa over life of mine. However, as highlighted above, given lease payment’s PSA and tax deductibility, net effect on earnings and FCFs is significantly less and amounts to ~$8mpa. In effect, it does increase operating costs (AISC (ex PSA, gross basis) goes up to ~$6,200/t from $4,900/t) but LOM PSA share is reduced to ~20% from 27% before. Along with other adjustments (changes to development/sustaining capex and commodity prices), Demirli NPV8% AT is estimated at US$175m (from $227m) or $158m (from $$205m) post 0.9x risk adjustment. The project remains highly value accretive to the Group.

We remain buyers of Anglo Asian with an updated risked NAV $450m and target price of 303p (from $495m and 333p) with further market catalysts including successful Gilar/Demirli ramp up, details on mining/processing at Xarxar/Garadag, updated MRE and exploration results.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker for Anglo Asian Mining

Blencowe Resources (BRES LN) 5.9p, Mkt Cap £22m – Drilling results from the Orom Cross graphite project, Uganda

• Blencowe Resources, which is working on a Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) for the Orom Cross graphite project in Uganda, has released initial results from its seventh phase of drilling on the project.
• The drilling, described as the largest programme “in the Company’s history … [ includes] … geotechnical holes, infill drilling and exploration drilling across both the Camp Lode and Northern Syncline deposits, as well step-out and deep drilling at the newly identified Beehive deposit”.
• Today’s results come from “eight geotechnical holes drilled primarily to support pit design … [and they] … have returned strong graphite grades” including:
  • 8.68% total graphite content (TGC) over an interval of 27.54m from an undisclosed depth in the Camp Lode hole CLGT-03; and
  • 9.08% TGC over 3.96m “at depth”, in hole CLGT-02 also in the Camp Lode; and
  • “Shallow intersections in CLGT01 and CLGT04 … [which] … confirm near-surface mineralisation and potential to extend the pit to the north”; and
  • 4.61% TGC over 27.98m mainly from depths below 30m in hole NSGT-02 on the Northern Syncline deposit; and
  • 6.09% TGC over 12.37m in hole NSGT-04 also in the Northern Syncline.
• The company comments that these “results confirm extensions to mineralisation and highlight high-grade zones within the existing deposits, further underscoring Orom-Cross’s unique combination of high grade, shallow ore and large-scale potential”.
• At Camp Lode, the four geotechnical holes reported today “have indicated a possible extension to the orebody in the south-east … [with] … very high grades of graphite in comparison to the overall Orom-Cross resource”.
• Results from the four geotechnical holes at the Northern Syncline are reported to show the “ability to mine substantial volume of graphite from shallow depths … [contributing] … to Orom-Cross having operating costs sitting within the lowest percentile of graphite projects worldwide”.
• Costs in this section of the global distribution are “considered a major advantage as Blencowe drives towards first production”.
• Executive Chairman, Cameron Pearce, confirmed that further assay results are “now beginning to come through and … we look forward to a steady flow of updates, including the JORC upgrade and the DFS”.

Conclusion: The recent drilling results from Orom Cross are picking up shallow, high-grade graphite and extensions to mineralisation within existing deposits as the company works towards updating the mineral resource estimate and a Definitive Feasibility Study.

Cobra Resources (COBR LN) 4.1p, Mkt cap £36m – Half year results describe progress at the Boland rare-earths project and the option on the Manna Hill copper project

• Cobra Resources reports an operating loss of £0.45m for the six months to 30^th June (H1 2024 loss of £0.38m) and a closing balance of available cash of £0.84m, described as “sufficient for the Company to execute its planned exploration activities”.
• Commenting on operational highlights over the period Chairman, Greg Hancock, said that progress at the Boland rare-earths project in South Australia “has further validated our pioneering approach to in situ recovery of rare earths … [and delivered the] … successful production of our first mixed rare earth carbonate … [which] … combined with exceptional metallurgical recoveries, is keeping Boland on course to be the first ISR rare earth project outside of China which can compete with China on costs”.
• Mr. Hancock also described the recent “option to acquire the Manna Hill Copper Project, a substantial and underexplored 1,855 km² copper-gold opportunity located within the renowned Nackara Arc, South Australia … [as] … a major strategic step for the Company”.
• At Manna Hill, “Cobra’s initial exploration focus will be on the Blue Rose prospect – a copper-gold skarn and porphyry target that is shallow, scalable and open at depth”.
• Other, future targets at Manna Hill “include Netley Hill – a massive, shallow, 3km long chargeability anomaly associated with intersected copper-molybdenum mineralisation – and Golden Sophia – a Carlin style gold target with untested scale”.

Conclusion: Interim results highlight progress on the Boland rare-earths project and an option over a South Australian copper project

First Tin (1SN LN) 6.15p, Mkt Cap £27m – Participation in indium bioleaching research

• First Tin reports that its German subsidiary, SAXORE Bergbau, will join an EU funded research project to assess whether indium can be extracted “directly from the ore body using bioleaching”.
• Fourteen research and development partners are funded with €5m of which “€0.2 million is allocated to the German pilot site of SAXORE Bergbau”.
• “The core objective of this 100% EU-funded project is to demonstrate that indium can be extracted directly from the ore body using bioleaching without causing damage or leaving any residue”.
• Welcoming the opportunity to participate in the research, SAXORE Bergbau’s Managing Director, Matthias Faust, said that the “support of the EU for the XTRACT project underlies the importance of finding new, sustainable extraction techniques to access such critical minerals as Indium … [and that the company looks forward to] … participating with our partners in this effort, which can only benefit the EU through providing a clean alternative to unlock the value in our 700 tonnes of Indium resource”.

Freeport McMoran (FCX US) US$38 Mkt Cap $54bn – Update on Grasberg after wet mud flow incident

• Freeport provided an update on its Grasberg Block Cave, where two mine workers have now died and five remain missing.
• A mud rush incident caused c.800kt of wet material to enter the mine and travel to multiple mine levels.
• Mining at Grasberg has been suspended since September 8^th.
• An investigation is underway and expected to be completed by year-end 2025.
• Freeport update 3Q25 guidance, seeing copper sales 4% lower and gold sales 6% lower.
• The Grasberg Block Cave represents 70% of Freeport Indonesia’s copper and gold production through 2029.
• Although the incident took place in one of five blocks, it damaged infrastructure required to support other production areas.
• Freeport expects to revise longer term production down going forward.
• Production will be hit over 4Q25 and 2026.
• PTFI production expected to be c.35% lower in 2026.
• Pre-incident operating rates ‘could potentially be achieved in 2027.’

Conclusion: A nasty incident at Grasberg, the world’s second largest copper mine. Shares were down 16% yesterday as the market adjusted production expectations from Grasberg over the longer term.

Oscillate PLC (MUSH LN) 0.40p, Mkt Cap £1.7m – Revised acquisition terms for Kalahari Copper’s Namibian copper portfolio, as well as the Botswanan copper portfolio

• Oscillate is set to become one of the largest holders of licenses in the Kaoko Basin in Namibia
• The Kaoko Basin is seen as an extension of the Central African Copper Belt.
• Oscillate has now entered into a new, non-binding Heads of Terms agreement to acquire 100% of Kalahari Copper Limited.
• The deal gives Oscillate a pathway to obtain 100% ownership of Kalahari Copper’s Namibian Copper Projects including four licences of which two licences are in the process of being renewed. The four licenses cover 1,106km2 giving Oscillate as one of the largest license holdings in the Kaoko Basin.
  • “The Kaoko Basin and the Central African Copper Belt have important geological similarities and stratigraphic correlations, with both basins expected to host significant stratabound (sediment-hosted) copper and silver deposits.
  • Kalahari Copper has completed more than 8,000 metres of drilling over a series of campaigns to date, with multiple intersections demonstrating copper mineralisation on multiple prospects, occurring from surface. “
• Kalahari Copper’s Botswanan Copper Project includes a further 17 licences in the Kalahari Copper Belt and the Bushman Lineament.
• Work on the Namibian licenses is significantly further advanced than in Botswana, with “development grade copper identified across multiple prospects further to the recent drilling programmes in 2024.”
• The Kahalari Copper Belt hosts the MMG’s Khoemacau Copper Mine and Sandfire’s Motheo mine
• With both mines approved and developed far faster than in most other regions.
• Oscillate’s licences are relatively close to these mines and future development assets rendering their location prospective from an exploration perspective.
• The team plan to target unexplored basin margins and the strike extension of known deposits for the accumulation of sedimentary copper.
• The PL85 licence in the Bushman Lineament is next to the former Kopano copper mine
• Oscillate has paid £500,000 to Kalahari Copper as outlined in the announcement on 9 July 2025 with a portion of the funding allocated to work programmes and licence renewals in 2025.
• Oscillate’s exclusivity expires on 31 October 2025.
• Oscillate will issue shares representing around 30% of Oscillate to the owners of Kalahari Copper on consummation of the deal.
• Oscillate will maintain the Kalahari Copper stake at 30% till the point whereby Oscillate is listed on a more senior stock exchange.
• Kalahari Copper have the right to appoint two Directors to Oscillate’s board and will retain this right for so long as it holds >20% of Oscillate’s issued share capital.
• The deal requires Oscillate to pay £2m in cash to the holders of Kalahari Copper within 10 business days of relisting.
• This has increased from the £1.5 million in cash previously agreed, due to the inclusion of the Namibian Copper licenses.
  • “Further milestone payments of £1.5m each due upon an initial Maiden JORC Resource, publication of a Pre-Feasibility Study and upon Final Investment Decision will apply to the Botswanan Licences and separately and additionally to the Namibian licences as well.”

Royalty agreement:

• A NSR ‘net smelter royalty’ of 1.9% will now be granted in respect of copper sold from any of the Namibian and any of the Botswanan licences.
• Oscillate has an option to buy back the royalty in each country, which it can exercise at any time after the delivery of a DFS on the specific licence or licences in question for the amount determined by an independent valuation expert. In addition to the original contingent fee payable by Oscillate of 80% of the net proceeds or a contingent US$2.5m fee that may become payable in the future by Sandfire, Oscillate has also agreed that in the event that licence 7081 (assuming it is reissued) is disposed to a named party within 18 months of the closing of the transaction it will make an additional payment of 60% of the net proceeds from such sale.
• In additional consideration for the Namibian licences, Oscillate has agreed that it will grant the Seller two options, each over 3% of the capital of the Company post capital raise upon flotation on a more senior stock exchange.
• The first option for 3% is at par value and has a term of three years from completion of the transaction. The second option for 3% is also at par value and has a term of five years from completion and is exercisable following the publication of the first Maiden JORC Report of Measured and Indicated Resources produced by the Oscillate on any of the Namibian licences.

Conditions:

• the reorganisation of Kalahari Copper to introduce the Seller.
• the satisfactory completion of due diligence.
• the execution of a binding SPA and Royalty Agreements.
• any third party, regulatory or tax consents, waivers or approvals necessary.
• the passing at a general meeting of the Company of the resolutions to approve any other matters such as the authority to allot the Consideration Shares; and other customary conditions including without limitation there being no material adverse change to the Company or its business or any to the mining, exploration or reconnaissance or similar permits held by either of Kalahari Copper’s Botswanan Company or the Namibian Company.

Conclusion: The inclusion of the Nambian project / licenses is a significant step forward for Oscillate. The timing of the deal also looks fortuitous as investors return to the exploration sector.

Petra Diamonds (PDL LN) 18.75p, Mkt Cap £37m – Refinancing proposal timetable

• Petra Diamonds reports that the commitment deadline for agreement with its Senior Secured Bank Lender on the extension of its senior secured bank debt and its 9.75% senior second lien notes, previously extended until 24^th September, has been extended further until 29^th September.
• The refinancing proposal was announced on 8^th August with the debt restructuring and a planned underwritten rights issue to raise $25m laying the foundation for “a simpler and more streamlined business” following the sale of its Koffiefontein and Williamson mines.
• Today’s announcement explains that Petra Diamonds “does not expect this additional extension to affect either the timeline for the publication of a prospectus and shareholder circular in respect of the Rights Issue or the completion of the Refinancing, which are both still expected to occur in Q4 CY2025”.

Rio2 Ltd* (RIO CN) C$1.72 Mkt Cap C$735m – Desalinated water strategy to boost production to >300kozpa

• Rio2, who are developing a heap leach operation in the Atacama region of Chile, provide an update on their water strategy.
• The Company is currently water constrained with its heap leach operation, which is due for first pour in January at 20ktpd.
• Yesterday Rio2 announced it has signed two separate MoUs with two companies with desalinated water distribution facilities in Copiapo.
• The MoUs see both companies undertake studies to supply desalinated water to the Fenix Gold Mine.
• These studies will include evaluating the potential expansion of their desalination facilities at currently operating plants, and constructing a pipeline for distribution in Copiapo.
• A four month conceptual study will be completed by both companies, with Rio2 then selecting their preferred partner to take to feasibility study stage.
• Fenix will then enter negotiations for a Joint Development Agreement, with the Company holding the ‘sole right to include other potential miners to partner in the agreement.’
• Timeline:
  • PFS completion 1Q26
  • Reserve and resource update: 4Q26
  • DFS: 2H27
  • FID on expansion: 1Q29
  • Completion of desalinated water supply: 2H30
  • Ramp up to >300kozpa: 2H30
• Rio2’s management believes increased water supply will boost production to 80ktpd ore production, producing over 300kozpa for c.10 years.

*An SP Angel analyst holds shares in Rio2

SolGold (SOLG LN) 15.2p, Mkt Cap £459m – Annual report describes progress on a combined strategy for open-pit and underground mining at Cascabel

• In its Annual Report, SolGold reports a post-tax loss of US$36.25m for the year to 30^th June 2025 (2024 – loss of US$60.30m) and a “cash position of US$11.8 million as at 30 June 2025, with another US$33.3 million received subsequent to year end”.
• Solgold attributes the reduced loss “to the absence of significant one-off items that impacted 2024’s results. In 2024, these included a US$24.1 million non cash remeasurement expense related to the NSR financial liability, as well as the write-off of Australian exploration properties that resulted in US$8.3 million of non-cash expenses”.
• Against a background of global copper supply constraints and rising demand, Solgold highlights progress on progress developing the 3bn tonne underground copper deposit at Alpala and the 0.5bn tonne open-pit resource at Tandayama América located in the Cascabel Licence around 3km north of Alpala.
• Under the new management team headed by CEO, Dan Vujcic Solgold is planning early open-pit development at Tandayama América “to generate early cash flow while advancing underground development of the main Alpala resource”.
• The company has previously indicated that it is working towards production from Tandayama América early in 2028 with underground ore from Alpala towards the end of that year.
• A revised pre-feasibility study, issued in March 2024 outlined a phased development approach to the development of Cascabel as a means of reducing pre-production development capital to ~US$1.55bn and generating “a pre-tax NPV8% of US$5.4 billion, 33% IRR, and a post-tax NPV8% of US$3.2 billion with a 24% IRR, along with significant copper, gold, and silver production estimates over a 28-year mine life”.

• The 2024 Study describes the development of a core 540mt reserve, which is part of a significantly larger 3.2bt resource at Alpala which is expected to start at a 12mtpa mining rate, doubling to 24mtpa after six years to produce an average of 123,000tpa of copper, 277,000ozpa of gold and 794,000ozpa of silver over an initial 28 years life.

• Current work incorporating the acceleration of open-pit mining at Tandayama América is now expected to be incorporated in a “comprehensive Feasibility Study in late 2026”.
• Plans to create an exploration subsidiary to administer Solgold’s extensive >3,000km² portfolio of exploration projects in Ecuador are expected to be implemented during 2026 with a potential public listing and “joint venture structures with major mining partners” both under consideration.

Conclusion: New leadership is refining the development strategy for Cascabel to bring forward initial production from open-pit mining as it develops the underground operation at Alpala.  A Feasibility Study is expected in late 2026 with plans to create a separate exploration vehicle also likely to reach fruition in 2026.

Versamet Royalties (VMET CN) C$9, Mkt Cap C$850m –Acquisition of streams and royalties from Appian

• Versamet reports it has acquired a stream and a royalty from Appian Capital Advisory.
• The Company has acquired a 90% silver stream on the Rosh Pinah Zinc mine in Namibia.
• Additionally, they have acquired a 2.75% NSR royalty over the Santa Rita mine in Brazil.
• Versamet will pay $125m in up-front cash consideration and $45m in a contingent consideration.
• Rosh Pinah is targeting a doubling of throughput in 2H26.
• The Rosh Pinah expansion FS in 2021 reported reserves of 12.4mt at 6.4% Zn, 1.36% Pb and 19.8g/t Ag, with average annual payable silver production of 300koz.
• Santa Rita Underground holds the potential for a large-scale underground operation to extend the mine life.
• Santa Rita open pit reserves from 2022 reported 34.8mt at 0.31% Ni, 0.11% Cu.
• Versamet report the stream, and royalty will account for c.5,000oz GEO in 2026 on consensus prices.

Yellow Cake (YCA LN) 574p, Mkt Cap £1.24bn – Upsized placing raises £130m to exercise uranium purchase option with Kazatomprom

• Uranium holding fund Yellow Cake reported the results of their placing.
• The Company raised US$175m at £5.64/share, having initially proposed US$125m.
• 22.9m new shares will be issued, c.10.6% of the existing share capital.
• Management notes ‘strong support from both existing and new institutional investors.’
• The Company will use the funds to exercise their 2025 uranium purchase option with Kazatomprom, boosting physical holdings over 23mlb.
• Management notes strengthening uranium market fundamentals with global nuclear expansion, supply constraints and rising utility demand.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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