SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Thursday 23rd March 2023

Metals prices rise as US dollar weakens after Fed 25bp rise

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below 

Atlantic Lithium* (ALL LN) – Martin Ayisi, CEO Minerals Commission Ghana on GTV talking about lithium and Atlantic Lithium’s Ewoyaa project

Conroy Gold and Natural Resources (CGNR LN) – Geochemical sampling results from Slieve Glah.

Empire Metals* (EEE LN) – Maiden Pitfield 3,100m RC drill programme to commence by 31^st March

Galileo Resources (GLR LN) – Exploration of the Kamativi Lithium project in Zimbabwe identifies additional targets.

Savannah Resources* (SAV LN) – BUY, 17.9p – Start of public consultation and publication of project design documentation

Zinnwald Lithium (ZNWD LN) – AMG takes 25% stake in Zinnwald at a 10% premium

VOX Markets Podcast:  10/03/2023:  https://audioboom.com/posts/8261642-john-meyer-is-china-s-growth-ambitions-believable-plus-amur-atlantic-lithium-cornish-metals

ii Interactive Investor:  Indaba interviews:       Battery Metals – Four Stocks – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8fwy6PXUe6s&t=5s

• Battery Metals Market – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfdOAUO46tw&t=3s
• Gold – Four Companies – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2mVzyw4heDQ&t=3s

*SP Angel almost invariably acts as nomad or broker or nomad and broker to companies mentioned in the above videos and podcasts. We speak more about these companies as we have a good understanding of their business and can talk with a greater degree of confidence. As ever, however, it should be noted that our views do not take into account the circumstances and needs of any particular investor or investor type. So enjoy the talks, but please do your own research, including other companies not mentioned by us but operating in the same areas, and get professional advice where appropriate.

Copper prices close in on $9,000/t as Chinese smelters resurrect from doldrums

• Copper prices have now rallied near $500/t to just under $9,000/t.
• The move marks a bounce from weakness related to concerns over the global banking crisis, however market fundamentals have seemingly regained control.
• Chinese copper smelting is roaring back to life, with Chinese copper production climbing 10.6% to 1.945mt yoy, record highs on a daily basis.
• The rise in smelter activity is also reflected in a 100% jump in Yangshan premiums for refined copper cathodes and a 20% draw in SHFE inventory levels.
• The premiums indicate strong demand within China for refined copper.
• Alongside more bullish Chinese fundamentals, a 2% decline in the dollar over the past week has further supported metals.

Gold prices tests $1,984/oz as yields slide on Powell presser

• Gold prices were supported following the FOMC meeting yesterday, with spot prices climbing back to $1,976/oz.
• The market seems to be sniffing out the twilight moments of the Fed’s aggressive hiking cycle, with Powell stating yesterday that officials had considered a pause amid the banking chaos.
• Yields for US Treasuries have fallen over the past week amid expectations the Fed is nearing its peak funds rate.
• Given geopolitical uncertainty alongside concerns over inflated fiscal deficits, investors seem to be drawn to gold despite multi-year highs in US Treasury yields.
• Russia yesterday stated its Central Bank now holds gold with a total value of $135.6bn, a jump of over 1m ounces over the past year.
• Central bank buying has been a major tailwind to gold prices over the past year, with ETFs seeing consistent selling as investors rotated into yielding government bonds.
• China added 102t worth of gold to its central bank’s coffers between Nov-Feb, according to official PBOC data.

Chilean government pressures lithium producers to accelerate DLE technologies to minimise water waste

• The Chilean government is looking to implement laws on lithium producers to use more selective/direct processing and minimise evaporation techniques.
• Chile is the world’s second largest lithium producer.
• The Minister for Mines stated that ‘for us, any future development has to be done with direct extraction.’
• The policy threatens to hit both output levels and profitability of major producers SQM and Albermarle, as direct extraction technologies remain in preliminary stages of development.
• Furthermore, Chile is seeing increasing resource nationalism, with President Boric eyeing a state lithium company alongside withdrawing contracts over pollution concerns.

Biden’s next round of EV credits encourage US battery metal production and reduction on Chinese reliance

• The White House is set to release a new series of EV credit requirements next week in line with the Inflation Reduction Act.
• New credits offer car companies incentives to build and buy EV battery components with US-produced materials.
• It also looks to bolster EV supply chains with US-friendly countries, or those where free-trade agreements are held, as the administration continues its efforts to limit Chinese reliance.

*SP Angel acts as nomad to Phoenix Copper who are developing copper and cobalt assets in the US

Beijing and Xian offer cash subsidies to EV buyers

• 14 provincial administrations are now offering subsidies to buy Electric Vehicles since 14^th January (SCMP)
• The subsidies are on offer for residents who are replacing combustion engine vehicles with EVs
• A recent price war amongst EV manufacturers appears to have failed to boost sales
• The relative high cost of EVs combined with rising living costs appears to have put off buyers

Its World Meteorological Day today – a happy day for meteorological people

• Why did the lightning get into trouble? It didn’t know how to conduct itself.

  Economics

US – The Fed raised rates by another 25bp in a unanimous decision taking the benchmark to the 4.75-5.00% range.

• Regulators softened their tone over the outlook of them monetary policy highlighting emerging risks of a credit crunch in the banking sector.
• FOMC dots plot describing expected Fed funds target rate indicate that regulators are envisioning one more rate hike in 2023.
• Chairman Powell said officials are not expecting to cut rates this year in contrast to market expectations that see rates ending the year in the 4.00-4.25%% range.
• Two-year bond yields pulled back more than 20bp on the announcement with the US$ weakening against a basket of major trading partner currencies.
• Although, equity indices closed lower on the day.

China loses 229 billionaires off Hurun Global Rich List

• But not to worry, China still has some some 773 billionaires to go according to the Hurun Global Rich List
• The figures include 77 from HK, and 46 from Taiwan.
• 26 Chinese tycoons now rank among the world’s 100 richest people.

UK – The central bank is expected to hike rates later today for the 11^th time in a row following a surprise jump in inflation in February.

• Before the release of the inflation data investors were split almost 50/50 on whether the BOE will pause or raise rates.
• Expectations are currently for the BOE to hike rates 25bp hike to 4.25% with a potential one more increase the next meeting.

France – President Macron pressed on with unpopular pension reforms expecting new legislation to come into force by year end despite nationwide protests, Reuters reports.

• Polls showed a wide majority of French opposing proposed pension legislation changes as the government pushed it through parliament without a vote.
• Train and garbage collection services were disrupted as part of a ninth nationwide day of strikes.
• Electricity power supply was reduced today on the back of rolling strikes in the sector.

Ukraine/Russia – Russian drones hit Ukrainian cities and missiles landed in an apartment block in Zaporizhzhia in the south with Bakhmut offensive reported to be stalling, Reuters said citing Ukrainian and British military experts.

• The military said it had shot down 16 of 21 Iranian made Shahed suicide drones on the north of the country.
• One civilian casualty and 33 people wounded were reported in the southern city of Zaporizhzhia where missiles hit two adjacent residential buildings.

Currencies

US$1.0895/eur vs 1.0768/eur yesterday. Yen 131.13/$ vs 132.46/$. SAr 18.128/$ vs 18.563/$. $1.231/gbp vs $1.227/gbp. AUD 0.673/aud vs 0.669/aud. CNY 6.828/$ vs 6.890/$. 

Dollar Index 102.15 vs 103.17 yesterday.

Commodity News

Precious metals:

Gold US$1,976/oz vs US$1,944/oz yesterday

Gold ETFs 92.9moz vs US$92.6moz yesterday

Platinum US$991/oz vs US$981/oz yesterday

Palladium US$1,464/oz vs US$1,395/oz yesterday

Silver US$22.86/oz vs US$22.42/oz yesterday

Rhodium US$8,300/oz vs US$8,400/oz yesterday

Base metals:   

Copper US$ 8,956/t vs US$8,786/t yesterday

Aluminium US$ 2,306/t vs US$2,265/t yesterday

Nickel US$ 22,550/t vs US$22,790/t yesterday

Zinc US$ 2,882/t vs US$2,845/t yesterday

Lead US$ 2,118/t vs US$2,106/t yesterday

Tin US$ 23,900/t vs US$23,025/t yesterday

Energy:           

Oil US$76.4/bbl vs US$75.0/bbl yesterday

• Crude oil prices moved higher on improved sentiment following the Fed’s 25 basis-point rate hike and EIA reports that US exports of crude and refined products surged to a record 12mb/d last week.
• The EIA reported a 1.1mb US crude inventory build last week offset by an 11.5mb products draw, following 6.4mb gasoline and 2.3mb distillate stock draws, with refinery utilisation up 0.4% to 88.6%.
• European energy prices edged lower as gas storage remains at levels not seen since the 2020 Covid shutdown, with EU natural gas storage levels reportedly down w/w from 56.1% to 55.6% full (vs 34.5% 5-year average).

Natural Gas US$2.240/mmbtu vs US$2.265/mmbtu yesterday

Uranium UXC US$52.00/lb vs US$51.00/lb yesterday

Bulk:   

Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$121.1/t vs US$123.4/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$620.6/t vs US$618.2/t

Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$134.5/t vs US$134.5/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$181.5/t vs US$182.0/t

Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$340.0/t vs US$340.0/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$34,180/t vs US$34,180/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$82,779/t vs US$81,269/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$34,503/t vs US$35,192/t

China Spodumene Li2O 5%min CIF US$4,930/t vs US$4,960/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,345/t vs US$1,330/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$325/mtu vs US$325/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$790/t vs US$790/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% 9.6/lb vs US$9.6/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% 39.75/kg vs US$39.75/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$346/t vs US$343/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$94.1/t vs US$93.0/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$455.0/t vs US$455.0/t

Company News

Atlantic Lithium* (ALL LN) 25.9p, Mkt Cap £157m – Martin Ayisi, CEO Minerals Commission Ghana on GTV talking about lithium and Atlantic Lithium’s Ewoyaa project

• Martin Ayisi refers to the Ewoyaa lithium project as “One of the finest projects on Earth”
• Critical minerals and lithium comments from ~13 minutes in:  https://youtu.be/uaxh_GAkNg0
• Earlier this week we incorrectly referred to Ben Mensah of the Minerals Commission Ghana.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad to Atlantic Lithium

Conroy Gold and Natural Resources (CGNR LN) 18.5p, Mkt Cap £7.8m – Geochemical sampling results from Slieve Glah.

• Conroy Gold has reported assay results from a programme of deep overburden geochemical sampling at its Slieve Glah target area in Co. Cavan.
• The programme, conducted in collaboration with Conroy Gold’s joint-venture partner, Demir Export, collected a total of 1.434 samples from 15 sites including 372 samples from the Drammavaddy area, where one sample assayed 3.46g/t gold and 81 samples from the Corraweelis area where two samples of 1.16g/t and 1.425g/t were recorded.
• Overall, “431 samples returned results greater than, or equal to, 10 ppb Au (samples of 10 ppb or higher tend to be associated with the presence of underlying bedrock gold)”.
• Samples from the Leiter area showed high levels of zinc ranging up to 4.45% while lead values ranging up to 0.1% are reported from the Largari area.
• According to the company’s website, mineralisation potential in the area appears to be associated with a 3km long section of “a major geological structure; the Orlock Bridge Fault”.
• Commenting on the results of the programme, the Chairman, Prof Richard Conroy, explained that they “pinpoint additional gold targets for follow up trenching and drilling. The district scale gold area already has a number of gold targets, many of them with gold proven in bedrock but clearly there are many more gold targets still to be identified”.
• Prof. Conroy said that although the area showed base metal potential “the main emphasis at this stage will continue to be the development of the first gold mine in the district”.

Conclusion: Early-stage exploration sampling at Slieve Glah has returned promising results for follow exploration however, in our opinion, discussion of a future mine development appears premature at this stage.

Empire Metals* (EEE LN) 2.15p, Mkt Cap £10.4m – Maiden Pitfield 3,100m RC drill programme to commence by 31^st March

• Empire is scheduled to begin drilling its Pitfield Copper Project by the end of this month, with the hope of exploring its potential ‘Giant’ copper mineralised system.
• The reconnaissance RC drilling programme will focus primarily on the Mt Scratch part of the licence, where D-D IP surveying has identified highly chargeable-highly resistive anomalies.
• The campaign will consist of 20 RC drill holes over 3,100m, with an average downhole depth of each hole expected at 150m
• Management suspects the Pitfield licence area may hold a Sediment-hosted Stratabound Copper deposit, lying within the Neoproterozoic Yandanooka basin.
• The basin’s geology bears several similarities to the Central African Copperbelt, and the Empire team suspect a potential ‘basin scale alteration event.’

Conclusion: Empire’s recent fundraising efforts offer them the exciting opportunity to conduct a maiden reconnaissance drill programme at Pitfield following encouraging early-stage exploration work. We look forward to results to come as the team continues to explore the potential for a significant copper deposit within the licence.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Empire Metals. The analyst holds shares in Empire.

Galileo Resources (GLR LN) 1.03p, Mkt Cap £11.9m – Exploration of the Kamativi Lithium project in Zimbabwe identifies additional targets.

• Galileo Resources announces that exploration of the Kamativi lithium project in western Zimbabwe has identified four priority targets exhibiting anomalous levels of lithium, tin, tantalum and rare earth elements.
• “Galileo has an option to earn an 80% interest through spending a combined total of $1.5million on exploration and evaluation in the Project area and over the Bulawayo gold-nickel property by 21 July 2024”.
• The exploration area “is adjacent to the former Kamativi mine and hosts strike extensions to the former mining district which produced between 1936 and 1994 over 37,000 t of tin and tantalum from 27Mt of tin-lithium-caesium-tantalum bearing pegmatites”.
• Galileo Resources discloses that “In 2018, Chimata Gold Corp. (Zimbabwe Lithium Company) announced a NI 43-101 compliant Indicated Mineral Resource of 26.3Mt at 0.58% Li₂O, 493 ppm SnO₂, 41 ppm Ta₂O₅ & 65 ppm Nb₂O₅ for the Kamativi tailings project”.
• In the western part of the 520km² exploration area, the programme has identified “a coherent Li-Cs-Nb-Sn-W-Ga-Rb- total rare earth element (‘TREE’) in soil anomaly extending over 1.2km with a width of 300 to 500m and a peak Li in soil content of 880ppm, with a further 1.5km extension (to the limit of laboratory assays) with peak Li in soil content of 1,000ppm”.
• Exploration in the central part of the licence and sampling of pegmatites from historic mine workings showed anomalous levels of lithium, caesium and rock and tin in rock chip and stream sediment samples and grades of up to 0.7% tin in old mine workings.
• In the east and northeast of the area rock chip samples showed anomalous levels of tin and lithium as well as the wide distribution of anomalous levels of rare-earth elements in soils over approximately 7km².
• Chairman and CEO, Colin Bird, said that the initial exploration “has been extremely encouraging pointing us to a number of high potential areas associated with the productive Kamativi pegmatite terrain”.
• Galileo Resources has commissioned “an independent specialist assessment of the results and accompanying datasets … [from the consulants CSA Global and says that it] … will announce the next steps for the area once this assessment concludes”.

Conclusion: Early-stage exploration of the Kamativi project area in Zimbabwe has identified promising lithium, tin and rare-earth element targets.  We look forward to hearing the company’s plans for follow up exploration once an independent review of the results has been concluded.

Savannah Resources* (SAV LN) 2.9p, Mkt Cap £49m – Start of public consultation and publication of project design documentation

BUY – 17.9p

• The national environmental agency (Agência Portuguesa do Ambiente) released the Barroso Environmental Report, Mine Plan and associated documents.
• The publication initiates the public consultation period which will end on 4 April 2023.
• New design is addressing key feedback from all stakeholders including management of water resources, layout of project related infrastructure such as road access, ecology and landscape impacts as well as socio-economic considerations.
• The Company is planning to release an updated Scoping Study in early H2/23 should the regulator issue a positive Environmental Impact Statement.
• The revised study will account for higher throughput (1.3mtpa to produce 175ktpa estimated previously) and consensus spodumene concentrate prices among other things.

Conclusion: The Barroso Project goes into the public consultation process over the next couple of weeks as part of APA environmental permitting procedures with regulators releasing detailed project design reports addressing feedback from all stakeholders. The project is planned to minimise local environmental, community and landscape impact with carefully designed water and tailings management systems among other things. The project is set to significantly benefit the economy locally and nationwide in the form of local community development programmes, fiscal contributions and offering over 200 direct and 2,500-5,000 indirect jobs.

*SP Angel act as Nomad and Broker to Savannah Resources

Zinnwald Lithium (ZNWD LN) 10.2p Mkt Cap £30m – AMG takes 25% stake in Zinnwald at a 10% premium

• Advanced Metallurgical Group NV (AMG) has subscribed for 124m newly issued shares of Zinnwald Lithium at a 10% premium to the 20-day VWAP to March 20^th.
• The subscription will take AMG to ‘cornerstone’ investor status in Zinnwald, with a 25% stake in the Company.
• AMG will provide both logistical and strategic advantages to Zinnwald and the funding will be utilised for progressing a DFS on the Zinnwald project.
• Zinnwald Lithium has a PEA on the Zinnwald Lithium Project in Saxony, Germany.
• The PEA shows a Pre-tax NPV8 of US$1,605m, IRR of 39.0%, $192m EBITDA, with a payback period of just 3.3 years.
• AMG’s Bitterfeld-Wolfen in Germany is Europe’s first lithium hydroxide refinery.
• AMG Lithium’s CEO, Dr Stefan Scherer, will join the board of Zinnwald Lithium.

Conclusion: AMG’s significant investment into Zinnwald reflects growing confidence in the European lithium production and refining value chain. The EU’s recently published European Critical Raw Materials Act highlights the region’s emphasis on securing domestically produced and refined lithium. We anticipate similar investments from larger materials conglomerates into upstream development assets to continue in the European battery metals sector.

No.1 in Copper:  “The winner of the 2020 Fastmarkets Apex contest for copper was the team at SP Angel comprising John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore, with an accuracy score of 93.8%”

No1. In Gold:  “SP Angel’s trio took the top spot for the gold price prediction throughout the year, with an accuracy score of 97.59%”

The SP Angel team also ranked 1st in Palladium, 3rd in Tin and 5th in Silver in the fourth quarter of 2020

Analysts

John Meyer – [email protected] – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – [email protected] – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –[email protected] – 0203 470 0474

Sales

Richard Parlons –[email protected] – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne – [email protected] – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees – [email protected] – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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