SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Thursday 19th October 2023

Risk sentiment pulls back on geopolitical tensions and concerns over Chinese property market

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Capital Metals (CMET LN) – Reinstatement of Mining Licenses in Sri Lanka

Celsius Resources* (CLA LN) – Road access agreement with local government

Centamin (CEY LN) – 2023 guidance confirmed as Sukari delivers solid Q3 performance

Lithium Power International (LPI AU) – Binding takeover offer from Codelco

Serabi Gold (SRB LN) – Purchase of Coringa ore-sorter and Community Relations award in Brazil

Tirupati Graphite (TGR LN) – Operational update as bridge financing sought

Vast Resources (VAST LN) – MoU to with CAMR regarding potential acquisition of a 49% in Aprelevka

IGTV:  New lower lows in base metals keep coming – why? https://youtu.be/1KWgI2HTUGw?si=VlVfQtpW-mrI7slD

           Copper will still move up despite a gear shift down in carbon-zero targets  https://youtu.be/jbywf2hmEU8?si=yxJcwGiE1_V121Ok

VOX:  06/10/23:  https://audioboom.com/posts/8379837-john-meyer-on-diamond-price-weakness-petra-anglo-asian-bushveld-power-metal-resources

           29/09/23:  https://audioboom.com/posts/8375969-john-meyer-on-china-s-property-implosion-plus-atlantic-lithium-bushveld-sovereign-metals

*SP Angel almost invariably acts as nomad or broker or nomad and broker to companies mentioned in the above videos and podcasts. We speak more about these companies as we have a good understanding of their business and can talk with a greater degree of confidence. As ever, however, it should be noted that our views do not take into account the circumstances and needs of any particular investor or investor type. So enjoy the talks, but please do your own research, including other companies not mentioned by us but operating in the same areas, and get professional advice where appropriate.

Copper looks for direction as dollar pushes higher and traders eye China outlook

• Copper prices have been trading tight and rangebound this week around the $8,000/t mark.
• The metal is seeing downward pressure from a rising dollar index as Treasury yields continue to push higher.
• However, China demand optimism is improving after a surprise beat in GDP forecasts of 4.9% for Q3.
• Bloomberg forecast mined supply to increase by 4-4.5% in 2024, but that 6mt of additional capacity is required for 2032.
• China’s grid spending is anticipated to account for 15% of global copper demand in the future.
• China property demand is expected to see copper demand growth to fall up to 3.5% in 2024, although EV sales and is supporting demand forecasts.

Gold continues to press higher on war premium, shrugging off Treasury rout

• Gold prices have pushed higher to $1,950/oz as concerns over Middle East escalation continue to mount, despite Biden’s visit to Israel.
• Gold is retaining is role as a geopolitical safe haven, climbing over $130/oz since Hamas attacked Israel.
• The move comes despite US Treasury yields climbing over 5% again across most of the curve, with the 10-year rising past 16-year highs.
• The bond sell-off followed a hot retail sales print, pushing markets to reprice the chances of a Fed rate hike in December and pushing back the chances of cuts next year.
• Treasuries are headed for a third year of losses in a row, an historical first, as the US economy continues to defy pessimists.
• Inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% inflation target and continued US economic beats are fuelling fears over sticky price elevation.
• Yesterday’s 20-year auction for Treasuries was strong, however, with $13bn worth of bonds sold providing some optimism to Treasury bulls.
• If yields are to come down on a potential slowing of the US economy, we would expect the inverse correlation to gold prices to provide a significant tailwind to bullion, potentially pushing it past the key $2,000/oz resistance level.

Israel – Hospital blast in Gaza shown by experts to be from local rocket misfire

• Well done to BBC Newsnight and BBC verify for demonstrating the hospital blast in Gaza was caused by a local misfired rocket
• While a number of cars were burnt out, the blast was consistent with the ignition of rocket propellant and not the detonation of a bomb by the Israel Defense Force
• https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67144061

Aluminium production rose 5.3% yoy to 3.58mt in September and 3.3% to 30.81mt for the year-to-date

• Yunnan province restored some 2mtpa of Al smelting capacity on low hydropower water levels over the summer
• In China the 10 non-ferrous metals production rose 7.3% yoy to a record 6.42mt.
• Non-ferrous production rose 6.8% to 55mt YTD to end September

Economics

Inflation – War is considered to have significant inflationary impact by economic historians

• We have two significant wars ongoing in Ukraine and Israel with ongoing conflict in Yemen, Sudan and the Sahael region of north Africa.
• While pandemics were not seen as particularly inflationary the impact on global supply chains helped to drive inflation during and post Covid lockdowns.
• While supply chains have largely recovered, the impact of war in Ukraine and Israel is disrupting supply chains again.
• Ukraine was and still is a major exporter of gains (cereals), crude iron and steel products, food oils, ores such as ilmenite, electrical equipment (wiring looms) etc…
• Israel exports should continue as normal there has been some redirection of shipping. Israel exports diamonds, integrated circuits, refined petroleum, medical instruments and other measuring instruments.
• While lack of cut and uncut diamonds may not impact inflation due to the new flood of Lab Grown stones, any disruption to integrated circuits, refined petroleum and measuring instruments may have some effect. Fortunately, Israel is not at that stage though the conflict has significant potential for escalation.
• As the two conflicts go on the prospect for further economic stimulus rises though the conflicts may cause interest rates to remain higher for longer.

US Treasury yields are pushing to fresh 16 year highs amid safe haven demand while China is cutting back its holdings of US debt.

• China is reported to have been a net seller of US Treasuries in August taking the nation’s holdings of US debt to a fresh 14-year low.
• US 10-year bond yield rises to 4.981, well above the return on investment property
• We suspect yields will be significantly lower next year. Its great if you want a steady return but does not give much protection against inflation if it remains higher for longer.

• Fixed asset investment fell to 3.1% ytd, yoy from 3.2%
• Atlantic Fed again raised its Q3 GDP forecast to 5.4%, from 5.1% and previous 4.9%
• US weekly 30-year mortgage rate continued to rise to 7.7% vs 7.67% previously
• Mortgage applications fell 6.9% in September vs 0.6% in August
• US housing starts rose 7% to 1.358m units in September vs -12.5% at 1.313m units in August
• Building permits fell 4.4% to 1.473m units in September vs 6.8% at 1.541m units in August.
• Chip war escalates as US tightens restrictions on Nvidia exports, but can the US ever really stop the sale of Nivida chips to traders who will break the sanction
• A small suitcase can hold thousands if not millions of Nvidia semiconductor chips with a value far greater than any drug or precious metal.

China – China appears to be ramping up domestic consumption as seen in a significant rise in retail sales

• Retail sales rose 5.5% in September vs 4.6% in August
• For retailers, China is ramping up domestic consumption (Dual Circulation)
• While we suspect this new demand is being directed towards the consumption of mainly Chinese goods through the issuance of discount vouchers via

Country Garden misses its final deadline for the coupon payment on a dollar bond, FT cited three creditors.

• The developer was supposed to pay a total of $15.4m on its $500m bonds maturing in Sep/25 this week.
• Separately, the Company denied reports that its founder and chairman left the country saying that both were “working normally within the country”.

Japan – Exports rise 4.3% yoy in September

South Korea – The central bank held rates unchanged at 3.5%, the level maintained since the start of the 2023 following a series of hikes over the previous two years.

• The move came in line with market estimates.

EU – Inflation 0.3% mom in September vs 0.5% in August

UK –  Input PPI up 0.4% in September vs 0.8% in August -2.6% yoy in September vs -2% yoy in August

• Output PPI 0.4% in September vs 0.2% in August -0.1% yoy in September vs -0.5% yoy in August
• RPI slipped to 8.9% yoy in September vs 9.1% yoy in August

Venezuela – The US suspended some sanctions on oil from Venezuela and other commodities in response to a signed agreement for an electoral roadmap between the government of President Maduro and the opposition

Currencies

US$1.0543/eur vs 1.0576/eur previous. Yen 149.79/$ vs 149.73/$. SAr 19.054/$ vs 18.727/$. $1.214/gbp vs $1.220/gbp. 0.631/aud vs 0.639/aud. CNY 7.317/$ vs 7.312/$.

Dollar Index 106.55 vs 106.20 previous.

Commodity News

Precious metals:

Gold US$1,948/oz vs US$1,937/oz previous

Gold ETFs 86.5moz vs 86.5moz previous

Platinum US$887/oz v US$907/oz previous

Palladium US$1,115/oz vs US$1,143/oz previous

Silver US$22.97/oz vs US$23/oz previous

Rhodium US$5,500/oz vs US$5,400/oz previous

Base metals:

Copper US$ 8,002/t vs US$8,037/t previous

Aluminium US$ 2,187/t vs US$2,190/t previous

Nickel US$ 18,545/t vs US$18,570/t previous

Zinc US$ 2,423/t vs US$2,446/t previous

Lead US$ 2,103/t vs US$2,098/t previous

Tin US$ 25,425/t vs US$25,365/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$91.0/bbl vs US$91.4/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices edged lower as the EIA reported a 4.5mb w/w US crude draw plus 2-3mb draws from gasoline and distillate stocks as the fall refinery maintenance season continues to impact utilisation at 86.1%.
• European energy prices fell as EU natural gas storage levels rose 1% w/w to 98.1% full (vs 89.6% 5-Yr average), with both Germany and France adding ~2.5TWh to lift overall storage to 1,117TWh.
• Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin expects Russia to supply more than 30bcm of gas to China in 2023, which is higher than the 20bcm that is anticipated to be exported to the EU this year, down from 155bcm in 2021.
• Media reports that Chesapeake Energy is considering an acquisition of rival natural gas producer Southwestern Energy, which would create a $20bn US shale gas giant with the necessary scale to deliver cost synergies.

Natural Gas €47.700/MWh vs €49.000/MWh previous

Uranium UXC US$69.00/lb vs US$72.75/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$115.9/t vs US$117.5/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$536.0/t vs US$537.3/t

Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$138.0/t vs US$137.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$146.5/t vs US$152.0/t

Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$321.0/t vs US$321.0/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$33,420/t vs US$33,420/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$71,619/t vs US$71,669/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$22,347/t vs US$22,636/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,170/t vs US$2,230/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,017/t vs US$1,021/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$300/mtu vs US$300/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$635/t vs US$635/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% 6.2/lb vs US$6.3/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% 26.25/kg vs US$26.75/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$314/t vs US$314/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$84.7/t vs US$85.5/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$340.0/t vs US$340.0/t

EV News

EV manufacturers slow production over demand fears

• Tesla has joined General Motors and Ford in being cautious about expanding EV production capacity, citing economic uncertainties and fears of a slowdown in demand.
• Elon Musk has voiced worry that higher borrowing costs would prevent potential customers from affording its vehicles despite substantial price cuts, and that he would wait for clarity on the economy before ramping up its planned factory in Mexico.
• Tesla’s announcement come after GM announced it would delay production, by a year, of Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra electric pickup trucks, citing flattening demand for EVs.
• Ford has also temporarily cut one in three shifts at its plant that builds the electric F-150 Lightning pickup truck.
• Ford slowed EV ramp-up to switch focus to commercial vehicles and hybrids earlier this year.
• Smaller EV maker Lucid reported a near 30% plunge in third-quarter production and only a marginal increase in deliveries despite big discounts, raising worries about demand.

Slowing Chinese EV demand drives down battery metal prices

• Lower raw material prices are relieving car companies and battery manufacturers, as they faced increased cell prices last year for the first time in over a decade.
• Lithium prices, which peaked above $80,000 per tonne in 2022, have fallen back to $23,000 per tonne.
• Lower prices have enabled battery cell prices to fall below $100/Wh with NCM 811 prices now estimated to be at $97/kWh according to SC Insights

European budget electric car price war about to start in earnest

• Dacia, Volkswagen, and Citroen are set to compete in the European budget EV market, with Citroen leading the charge with its new EC-3 model.
• Citroen aims to price the E-C3 near €25,000 when it arrives in late summer or autumn of next year, making affordability its key selling point.
• The E-C3 will be powered by a 44kWh battery, claiming a range of up to 320km on a single charge, although real-world conditions may vary.
• Citroen is also planning an even cheaper electric car set for launch in 2025, with a claimed range of 200km and a targeted European price of €19,900.
• Dacia is near the launch of their budget EV, in the UK, the Dacia Spring. In some European markets it has sold for as little as £13,500, but in Britain, where the Government has scrapped most EV deals, it will be priced from around £18,000.

Electric RV with 250-mile range available for delivery

• The G2, from Detroit-based EV maker Grounded, is built on the General Motors BrightDrop Zevo 600 platform designed for electric vans.
• It claims a fully loaded range of 250 miles from an 165kWh vehicle battery, compared to the G1’s range of 108 miles.
• It can be configured with up to 640W of rooftop solar and a 10kWh ‘house battery’ that can be charged from the main battery.
• Grounded was founded by a number ex-Tesla and SpaceX engineers and can be fitted with Tesla’s Starlink for off-grid connectivity.
• Delivery of the Grounded G2 will start later this month, with prices starting at $195,000.

Company News

Capital Metals (CMET LN) 5.25p, Mkt Cap £13m – Reinstatement of Mining Licenses in Sri Lanka

1. Capital Metals has announced that a Statutory Appeal before the Secretary to the Ministry of Environment in Sri Lanka has ruled that the cancellation of two Industrial Mining Licences over its Eastern Minerals Project by the Geological Survey and Mines Bureau (GSMB) was “not correct”.
2. The Appeal has “ordered the GSMB to reissue the IMLs to the Company’s Sri Lankan subsidiary, Damsila Exports (Pvt) Limited”.
3. The project entails mining “heavy mineral sands in the Eastern Province, containing industrial minerals including ilmenite, rutile, zircon, and garnet”.
4. In the ruling, the “Secretary criticised the conduct of the GSMB noting that it had violated certain provisions within the Mines and Minerals Act in its suspension and cancellation” of the licences and emphasised that “the GSMB should act transparently and with a good understanding of good governance principles while working as a government agency”.

• Welcoming the decision, Executive Chairman, Greg Martyr, said that the decision would enable “us to now fast-track the development of the Project … [which he said had been delayed by] … the best part of a year”.

1. He said that while the licence issue was resolved the company had secured an offtake MoU with the world’s number one manufacturer of high-performance titanium dioxide pigments to fund the Project into production and seen continued improvements in the prices of our main products”.

Conclusion: A clear ruling on its licences should place the Eastern Minerals Project back on course. We await developments with interest.

Celsius Resources* (CLA LN) 0.6p, Mkt Cap £13.5m – Road access agreement with local government

Click Link for SP Angel research report PDF note – MCB project NPV@8% US$463m, IRR of 34.3%

BUY

• Celsius Resources has agreed with local government in the Philippines province of Kalingua to work together on the development of road access to Celsius Resources’ Maalinao-Caigutan Biyog Copper-Gold Project (MCB).
• The company and local government will work together on the “84.5-kilometer Lubuagan-Batong Buhay-Abra Road Project (“Road Project”) which will pass through the MCB Project area” and provide “access from mine site to port”.
• The announcement explains that Celsius Resources’ subsidiary “MMCI has agreed to fund the construction and development of approximately 21-kilometers of road alignment (“Road Alignment”) which is part of the Road Project … [while the government partner will] … obtain the necessary permits and approvals from the concerned national and local government agencies and undertake land acquisition procedures”.
• The cost of the project “will be determined when the Detailed Engineering phase has been completed, and the timeline for the Road Project and Road Alignment will be determined as part of the agreed schedule of phases” which include the engineering work as well as the tendering for the construction contract and construction itself.
• The road project allows “the most appropriate Road Alignment to allow for the cost-efficient and safe transport of oversized and overweight cargo, and concentrate products, during the construction, development and operation stages of the MCB Project … [and access to] … the nearest port in Ilocos Sur to ship its concentrate products to during its operation and commercial production stage of the MCB Project”.
• Executive Chairman, Julio Sarmiento said that the company is “grateful that the Provincial Government, through the leadership of Governor James Edduba, is receptive in collaborating with us to pave the way for the MCB Project’s infrastructure needs, as well as those of the local communities”.
• Governor Edduba said that when it is implemented the road project, “will contribute to the sustainable and inclusive economic growth and rapid progress of the Province of Kalinga, attract further development opportunities, and major business investments for our constituents”.

Conclusion: Agreement between the company and the regional Government on the provision of upgraded road transport infrastructure should aid the project development of MCB and open wider long-term opportunities for the area.

*SP Angel acts as broker to Celsius Resources.

Centamin (CEY LN) 83p, Mkt Cap £988m – 2023 guidance confirmed as Sukari delivers solid Q3 performance

• Gold production of 101,370oz at the Sukari mine in Egypt brings Centamin’s YTD output to 321,931oz and keeps production on course to meet “the lower end of the 2023 guidance range” of 450-480,000oz.
• Cash costs of US$822/oz for the quarter and US$859/oz YTD are in line with “lower half of the 2023 guidance range” which is between US$840-990/oz.
• On an all-in-sustaining-cost (AISC) basis quarterly costs of US$1,266/oz sold and YTD AISC of US$1,240/oz also keep Sukari on track to deliver within “the lower half of the 2023 guidance range” of US$1,250-1,400/oz
• Centamin comments that during its first year of operation the 30MW solar power plant at Sukari successfully displaced “22 million litres of diesel fuel with renewable power to reduce greenhouse gas (“GHG”) emissions by approximately 59,000 tonnes of CO₂-e”.
• The company reports capital expenditure of US$59.1m for the quarter, bring YTD to US$166m “reflecting capital cost savings from lower fuel costs and optimisation of the open pit fleet maintenance strategy” comprising approximately US$77m of sustaining expenditure and around US$89m of other capital expenditure including ~US$63m for contract waste stripping and ~US$20m for the underground paste-fill plant.
• The company maintains its full year capex guidance of US$273m and says that this figure “includes a lower deferred sustaining stripping cost of US$25 million, predominantly driven by a conversion of waste to ore which has reduced the strip ratio and reclassified some sustaining capex to operating expenditure”.
• CEO, Martin Horgan, said that “Today’s results reflect another period of disciplined cost management, putting us on target for the lower half of our 2023 cost guidance range. Our financial strength and the savings made against our 2023 budget have also given us the flexibility to accelerate some key 2024 capital expenditures into 2023 without impacting guidance”.
• With US$23m of the company’s US$30m exploration budget being spent on “the pre-development study work on the Doropo Gold Project” in Cote d’Ivoire it is encouraging to learn that “DFS and ESIA work continued and is expected to be completed by June 2024”.

Conclusion: Q3 production from Centamin’s Sukari mine keeps the company on track to achieve production and cost guidance for 2023 and vindicates last year’s decision to move to owner operation in the underground mine which is expected to contribute an increasing proportion of ore tonnage over time.

Lithium Power International (LPI AU) A$0.54, Mkt Cap A$333m – Binding takeover offer from Codelco

• Lithium Power International has entered an all-cash binding scheme implementation deed with Codelco for all-cash A$0.57/share.
• The Company holds tenements near both Greenbushes and Pilbara alongside the more developed MSB Maricunga brine project in Chile.
• The offer reflects a 119% premium to the closing share price on 26^th September and a 136% premium to the 30-day VWAP.
• LPI shareholders are recommended by the board to vote in favour of the deal.
• The offer values the company on a fully diluted basis at A$385m.
• The move marks Codelco’s first entry into the lithium sector in its bid to diversify away from copper.
• The Chilean brine project holds 1.91mt LCE & 4.9mt KCL.

Serabi Gold (SRB LN) 38p, Mkt Cap £27m – Purchase of Coringa ore-sorter and Community Relations award in Brazil

1. Serabi Gold reports that it has purchased a 40tph capacity ore-sorter for its Coringa gold development project in Brazil.
2. The ore sorter costs ~€630,000 with a further “€250,000 to €300,000 for the importation costs and shipment from Poland to the Coringa site”.
3. The company expects the equipment to arrive in Brazil by the end of 2023 and become operational “early in the third quarter of 2024”.
4. The new ore-sorter is similar in capacity and design to the existing unit at Serabi Gold’s Palito mine and the company says that when it comes into operation “it will lead to a significant increase in gold production rates with both mines feeding high grade sorted ore into the central Palito plant”.
5. CEO, Mike Hodgson, explained that the “ore sorter is an important part in realising” Serabi Gold’s plans to double its gold output through the development of Coringa … [which is expected to become] … a significant employer for the … [Tapajos] …region”.
6. In a separate announcement today, Serabi Gold says that it has won the “Community Relations award at the recent Brazilian Gold Symposium … securing 73% of more than 5,000 votes that were cast”.
7. Mr. Hodgson welcomed the award which, he said, “is well deserved recognition of the fantastic efforts made by our team over the past 12 months, actively engaging with and creating support programmes across health, education and infrastructure that bring direct benefits to our neighbouring communities”.

Conclusion: Purchase of an ore-sorter for the Coringa mine will help Serabi Gold realise its plans to double existing gold output through upgrading the ore feed to the Palito plant. The industry Community Relations award indicates local support and acceptance of the value the mining operations bring to the area.

*An SP Angel analyst has visited the Serabi’s gold mining operations in Brazil

Tirupati Graphite (TGR LN) 15p Mkt Cap £18m – Operational update as bridge financing sought

• Flake graphite producer Tirupati Graphite provides an operational update and outlook.
• For the Company’s 1H24 reporting period, production increased 160% and revenues jumped 170%.
• 4,785t were sold and shipped over the period at an average price of $827/t.
• The Company has improved bottleneck issues and enhanced roads and bridges to limit disruptions over the rainy season.
• Tirupati reports run rates for Q3 of 1.8kt/day ore feed (75% of capacity) for 40-50t/day of flake graphite throughput.
• Average head grade for the period remains below 3% vs 4.5% in the plant design, although average recovery remains over 80%.
• The Company is now reorienting its future plans around a c.3% head grade owing to the ore’s saprolite dominance.
• As a result, Tirupati is looking to ramp up ore feed rates to compensate for a lower head grade.
• Additional preconcentrate units will be added to increase production.
• Tirupati is currently engaging creditors for debt finance to support development and working capital requirements.
• Management notes ‘subdued market prices’ and limitations from working capital constraints.
• They forecast base case production of 7,500t for H2 whilst they progress towards 10,000t.

Vast Resources (VAST LN) 0.2p, Mkt Cap £7m – MoU to with CAMR regarding potential acquisition of a 49% in Aprelevka

• Maiden shipment of lead / zinc bulk concentrate (136t) was completed for delivery to the offtaker Trafigura from the Takob processing facility in Tajikistan.
• Vast is receiving a 12.25% royalty on all sales of non-ferrous concentrate and any other metals produced at Takob’s fluoride and galena mine.
• Separately, the Company signed a legally binding MoU with Central Asian Minerals and Resources (CAMR) under which Bay Square Pacific, an entity owned by an existing strategic partner of the Company in Tajikistan, will acquire CAMR’s interest in Guld International Minerals.
• Gulf owns a 49% interest in a JV with the Government of Tajikistan holding the balance 51% stake operating the Aprelevka gold/silver mine.
• Aprelevka holds four active mining licences located along the Tien Shan Belt that extends through Central Asia, currently producing approximately 11,600oz of gold and 116,000 oz of silver per year.
• The mine has running at >25kozpa before production pulled back in later years with management considering options to ramp up run rates back up to 27kozpa gold and 250koz silver.
• Non JORC mineral resources are estimated at 4.7mt at 2.6g/t for 398koz at existing mines and 4.9mt at 2.1g/t for 329koz at adjacent licenses.
• Aprelevka booked $16.0m in revenues last year and reported a $0.8m loss during the period.
• Bay Square engaged Vast to carry due diligence on Aprelevka and negotiate the acquisition of Gulf as well as manage mining and development activities at the mine post transaction for a five year period.
• In return, Vast will be entitled for a 10% share of EBITDA that Gulf receives from its 49% interest in Aprelevka.
• The Company will also have the right at any time from the start of 2025 until the end of the five year management period to convert its earnings share entitlement into a 10% interest in Gulf and to acquire up to 20% of the share capital of Gulf at market value at the time of acquisition.

No.1 in Copper:  “The winner of the 2020 Fastmarkets Apex contest for copper was the team at SP Angel comprising John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore, with an accuracy score of 93.8%”

No1. In Gold:  “SP Angel’s trio took the top spot for the gold price prediction throughout the year, with an accuracy score of 97.59%”

The SP Angel team also ranked 1st in Palladium, 3rd in Tin and 5th in Silver in the fourth quarter of 2020

Analysts

John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

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+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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SPA, its partners, officers and/or employees may own or have positions in any investment(s) mentioned herein or related thereto and may, from time to time add to, or dispose of, any such investment(s).

SPA is registered in England and Wales with company number OC317049.  The registered office address is Prince Frederick House, 35-39 Maddox Street, London W1S 2PP.  SPA is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange plc.

MiFID II – Based on our analysis we have concluded that this note may be received free of charge by any person subject to the new MiFID II rules on research unbundling pursuant to the exemptions within Article 12(3) of the MiFID II Delegated Directive and FCA COBS Rule 2.3A.19.

A full analysis is available on our website here http://www.spangel.co.uk/legal-and-regulatory-notices.html. If you have any queries, feel free to contact our Compliance Officer, Tim Jenkins (tim.jenkins@spangel.co.uk).

SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return of less than 15%