SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Thursday 18th September 2025

Gold prepares for next push as US dollar weakens on Fed rate cut

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Cobra Resources (COBR LN) – Pump and permeability testing at Boland rare earths project, South Australia

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX N) – Indonesia is looking to add to its 61% ownership in PT Freeport Indonesia

Griffin Mining (GFM LN) – Lower throughput expected at the Caijiaying Mine for the rest of 2025

Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN) – U$500m placing from Qatar sovereign wealth fund to support exploration programme

Larvotto Resources (LRV AU) – Plant upgrade aimed for completion

Mkango Resources* (MKA LN) – BUY – £3m equity raise to progress Germany/UK recycling business

Orosur Mining* (OMI LN) – C$15m equity raise to advance exploration progress in Colombia

Prospect Resources (PSC AU) – Latest drilling extends the known mineralisation at Kabikupa, Zambia

Gold ($3,667/oz) – price prepares for next push as US dollar weakens on Fed rate cut

Gold prices are volatile but with upward momentum amid FOMC fallout as Powell emphasises labour market slowdown

• Gold had a volatile move in the wake of the Fed rate cut meeting yesterday.
• It spiked to $3,707/oz yesterday before pulling back to $3,640/oz this morning.
• It has subsequently regained ground as US Treasury yields edged lower again.
• Trump’s nominee Miran dissented with a 50bp cut, further fuelling concerns over the Fed’s independence following Trump’s attack on Lisa Cook earlier this month.
• US Treasury yields have held relatively flat despite the cut, with the 10 year at 4.05%, having fallen below 4% in the immediate aftermath of the 25bp cut.
• Concerns over the Fed abandoning its 2% inflation target, given the cut despite inflation trending well above target, may potentially support gold going forward.
• However, we reiterate the current primary driver behind gold is the diversification of dollar reserves by BRIC central banks, most notably China.
• This trend is expected to continue, supporting gold prices whilst a lower dollar is also expected to provide a sustained tailwind.

• Major banks and institutions moving their gold price forecasts to $4,000/oz and beyond.
• Peter Hambro, a former gold trader and founder of a significant number of gold mines forecasts gold will reach $5,000/oz.
• Morgan Stanley reckon gold is a stronger hedge than Treasuries.
• Morgan Stanley recommend revising portfolio weightings to 20% equities, 20% bonds and 20% gold and see equities and gold as dual hedges with gold offering growth-driven upside.

Economics

US – The Fed cut rates by 25bp, in line with expectations, to the 4.00-4.25% range.

• Market odds for further easing largely little changed to pre announcement.
• Dot plot released along the decision indicated most FOMC members expected at least two more quarter point cuts by the end of the year.
• The Fed highlighted that a deteriorating labour market is now more immediate risk that a rise in inflation.
• The decision was unanimous with Stephen Miran, a Trump ally who recently joined the Board, voting for a half point cut.
• Equities gained back initial losses driven by concerns over the health of the economy with futures trading higher than pre Fed announcement levels.

Fed economic projections now forecast slightly higher GDP growth, although, inflation estimates were also increased.

• GDP (2025/2026/2027): 1.6% (1.4% earlier), 1.8% (1.6%), 1.9% (1.8%)
• PCE Inflation: 3.0% (3.0%), 2.6% (2.4%), 2.1% (2.1%)
• Core PCE: 3.1% (3.1%), 2.6% (2.4%), 2.1% (2.1%)

UK – The central bank is expected to leave rates unchanged at 4.00% later this afternoon as inflation remains elevated.

• Core and Services CPIs have been running persistently high lately with disinflation progress somewhat stalled through 2025.
• Headline inflation has been picking up hitting 3.8% in August marking the strongest level since early 2024.
• Markets are not pricing a cut before February next year.

Currencies

US$1.1823/eur vs 1.1841/eur previous. Yen 147.18/$ vs 146.65/$. SAr 17.416/$ vs 17.387/$. $1.362/gbp vs $1.363/gbp. 0.664/aud vs         0.667/aud. CNY 7.107/$ vs 7.109/$.

Dollar Index 97.04 vs 96.82 previous.

Precious metals:         

Gold US$3,651/oz vs US$3,669/oz previous

Gold ETFs 94.7moz vs 94.9moz previous

Platinum US$1,385/oz vs US$1,385/oz previous

Palladium US$1,160/oz vs US$1,165/oz previous

Silver US$41.7/oz vs US$41.7/oz previous

Rhodium US$7,025/oz vs US$7,100/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$9,964/t vs US$10,016/t previous

Aluminium US$2,681/t vs US$2,700/t previous

Nickel US$15,270/t vs US$15,255/t previous

Zinc US$2,918/t vs US$2,973/t previous

Lead US$2,013/t vs US$2,002/t previous

Tin US$34,115/t vs US$34,500/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$68.5/bbl vs US$68.3/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices edged lower as the EIA estimated w/w US inventory draws of 9.3mb to crude and 2.3mb to gasoline, partly offset by a 4mb build to distillate stocks, as refinery utilisation fell 1.6% to 93.3% on domestic output of 13.5mb/d.
• The Abu Dhabi-backed XRG consortium has decided not to proceed with the proposed $19bn Santos takeover, with the latter identifying disagreement between the parties related to the requirement to secure regulatory approvals and the provision of a reasonable commitment to the development and supply of domestic gas.

Natural Gas €32.7/MWh vs €32.6/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $76.5/lb vs $76.2/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (cfr Dalian) US$113.4/t vs US$113.4/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$452.8/t vs US$453.0/t

HCC FOB Australia US$189.0/t vs US$188.5/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$106.6/t vs US$105.5/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$33,335/t vs US$33,335/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$81,396/t vs US$81,372/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$10,032/t vs US$10,029/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$810/t vs US$810/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,015/t vs US$1,015/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$558/mtu vs US$543/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$91/lb vs US$91/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$400/t vs US$400/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.4/lb vs US$5.4/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.6/kg vs US$23.8/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$271/t vs US$271/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,979/t vs US$2,979/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,105/t vs US$1,104/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$352.5/t vs US$352.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,075.0/kg vs US$3,075.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg

EV & battery news

Panasonic targeting next-generation EV battery within 2 years

• Panasonic plans to develop a next-generation EV battery with breakthrough performance by 2027.
• The company is aiming to eliminate the anode at the manufacturing stage, instead, a lithium metal anode would be formed in the battery after being charged for the first time.
• If successful, the company said it could lead to a 25% increase in battery capacity.
• Development will take place at Panasonic’s battery R&D hub in Japan.
• Panasonic is a major Tesla supplier and is aiming to strengthen competitiveness against Chinese battery makers.

Company news

Cobra Resources (COBR LN) 3.8p, Mkt cap £32m – Pump and permeability testing at Boland rare earths project, South Australia

• Following receipt of approvals from the Government of South Australia’s Department for Energy and Mining, Cobra Resources plans to start pump and permeability testing at its Boland rare earths project in South Australia in mid-October.
• Bench scale testing of a 55kg sample from Boland by Australia’s Nuclear and Scientific Technology Organisation (ANSTO) to evaluate the leaching characteristics of the mineralisation and its suitability for in-situ- recovery (ISR) techniques is currently underway and is “achieving exceptional permeability rates of 1.5 metres/day”.
• Today’s announcement explains that the tests show a reduction in “column pH … from pH7.0 to pH4.0 in just 48 hours … [and says that] … first liquor assays … [are] … expected soon”.
• Cobra Resources says that “Being able to replicate similar permeabilities in a field environment will provide robust, high confidence mining parameters for use with future economic studies”.
• Commenting on the significance of the planned on-site testing Rupert Verco, Managing Director, said that “Initial permeabilities achieved in the large-scale column are exceptionally encouraging and will see Rare Earth Elements being recovered in very short time frames using a low-cost lixiviant”.
• He explained that “Running these two work programmes in parallel will provide invaluable data that will form the basis for estimating future ISR production rates. We expect recovery results of this in-field test to be reported … in the coming weeks”.

Conclusion: Field testing of the leaching and permeability characteristics of the Boland rare-earths mineralisation is due to start next month and will provide valuable confirmation of how closely the bench scale test results can be replicated in the field.

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX N) US$45.1, Mkt cap US$65bn – Indonesia is looking to add to its 61% ownership in PT Freeport Indonesia

• The Energy and Mineral Resources Minister has suggested ongoing negotiations the nation might acquire >10% of the group, Antara News reports.
• Ongoing negotiations relate to the extension of the Grasberg mining permit by 20 years to 2061 with copper production expected to peak in 2035.
• PT Freeport Indonesia’s mining operation permit until 2061, an extension of 20 years from the current permit, which allows for their operation until 2041.
• Grasberg is an underground block cave with copper production of 816,466t last year at a net cash cost of $3,439/t down from $3,550/t in 2023.
• The government sees Grasberg reaching peak production in 2035.

Griffin Mining (GFM LN) 183p, Mkt Cap £342m – Lower throughput expected at the Caijiaying Mine for the rest of 2025

• Griffin Mining reports that local authorities have requested a throughput reduction of around 110,000t at its Caijiaying Mine in China over the remaining months of 2025 as a safety measure.
• The company explains that “Cooperation in this initiative is essential to obtaining the relevant permitting and commissioning of Zone II and continuing production from Zone III”.
• Today’s announcement explains that recent commodity price rises for gold and zinc offset the planned lower throughput and that it “expects that its financial results for the full year to be in line with management expectations”.
• In 2024, the mine treated ~1.17mt of ore to produce around 39kt of zinc, 16koz of gold 275koz of silver and ~1,300t of lead so the requested 110kt reduction in throughput represents around a 10% of last year’s treatment rate.
• We note, however, that in reporting the interim results for 2025, Chairman Mladen Ninkov commented that there was a “complete shutdown of operations in the last quarter of 2024, including the barring of all underground access, impacted operations in the first quarter of 2025 with underground capital development needing to be undertaken prior to mining and production recommencing”.
• Mr. Ninkov commented today that, “This temporary reduction in throughput is not expected to materially affect full year financial results, particularly if the current strength in commodity prices persists, but creates the necessary environment with the Chinese regulatory authorities to engender the appropriate respect as good operators in China to obtain the necessary approvals to take the Caijiaying Mine to the next level”.

Conclusion: A temporary reduction of around 10% in throughput at the Caijiaying Mine until the end of this year, at the request of the local administration, is likely to be offset by strong commodity prices leaving management’s financial expectations for the year intact.

Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN) C$13.6, Mkt cap C$18bn – U$500m placing from Qatar sovereign wealth fund to support exploration programme

• Ivanhoe announced yesterday that the Qatar Investment Authority has invested US$500m via a private placement.
• The Sovereign Wealth Fund will invest US$500m at C$12/share, with Ivanhoe issuing 57.5m new shares.
• Following the placing, QIA will hold 4% of Ivanhoe.
• The funds will be used to ‘advance growth opportunities related to the exploration, development and mining of critical minerals, as well as for general corporate purposes.’
• Friedland notes that the Qatari’s ‘forward-looking vision is fully aligned with our own, as well as that of our other long-term strategic investors.’
• Friedland emphasises that ‘Ivanhoe’s journey is only just beginning, as we search the globe for our next discoveries and opportunities to develop new tier-one mines.’
• QIA’s CEO noted the Group has conviction in ‘supporting its team in finding, developing and sustainably supplying the critical minerals essential to the global energy transition.’
• Ivanhoe is currently conducting a major exploration programme across the Western Forelands in the DRC.
• They are also exploring in Angola, targeting Western-Foreland-style sedimentary copper mineralisation, currently completing a 6,400m DD programme.
• In Zambia, Ivanhoe is exploring the North-Western Province, targeting extensions of the Central African Copperbelt.
• In South Africa, Ivanhoe is targeting the Northern Limb of the Bushveld Province, testing for a potential primary feeder zone of magma and mineralisation as sources of the Platreef deposit. Currently completing a 6,000m programme.
• Elsewhere, Ivanhoe is in JV with Pallas Resources* in Kazakhstan, where they have begun a 17,500m DD programme targeting sedimentary copper.

*SP Angel analysts hold shares in Pallas Resources

Larvotto Resources (LRV AU) A$0.63, Mkt cap A$306m – Plant upgrade aimed for completion

• Antimony developer Larvotto report plant upgrades have begun at Hillgrove.
• The Company is aiming to complete the processing plant upgrade in mid-2026.
• Procurement of key long lead items is underway.
• The Company has granted the EPCM contract to MACA-Interquip-Mintrex.
• The plant upgrade will enable the production of 40.5kozpa gold and 4.9ktpa antimony.
• The project holds 636koz AuEq at 6.6g/t AuEq in reserves.
• After Tax NPV8 of A$694m and IRR at 102% using US$2,850/oz Au and US$41k/t Antimony.

Mkango Resources* (MKA LN) 36p, Mkt Cap £107m – £3m equity raise to progress Germany/UK recycling business

BUY

• The Company is raising £3.0m to progress permanent magnets recycling business..
• 10m units are being issued at 30p per unit, implying a 6% discount to last closing price.
• Each unit comprises one common share and half of one warrant (45p exercise price, 2y).
• Net proceeds (~£2.8m) to be used to fund recycling development costs in Germany and the UK.
• HyProMag USA (MKA 40% interest) development costs are being funded by JV partner CoTec.
• The raise is expected to close on or around 01 October.
• The Company had US$1.2m in cash and no bank debt as of June 2025 with a number of in the money options and warrants including ~17m investor warrants (7p exercise price).

Conclusion: A well received £3m equity raise (MKA trading at premium to placing this morning) to fund ongoing development of HPMS tech led permanent magnets recycling business in Germany and the UK ahead of catalyst rich period.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Mkango Resources

Orosur Mining* (OMI LN) 20p, Mkt Cap £69m – C$15m equity raise to advance exploration progress in Colombia

• Orosur has announced a best-efforts private placement for gross proceeds of up to C$15m.
• The placing price of C$0.34 (0.18p) and Orosur will issue 44.1m new shares.
• Orosur has also agreed to sell an additional 5.9m new shares for C$2m.
• Orosur will use the net proceeds to progress exploration in Anzá, alongside general working capital and corporate purposes.
• Management notes that the placing across TSX-V and AIM will enable it to broaden its shareholder base with institutional investors in both Canada and the UK.

Conclusion: Today’s raise reflects continued strong investor appetite for Orosur following their progress with Pepas in Colombia. Orosur is advancing the asset to MRE. El Cedro is also becoming a very interesting target for Orosur, with  mapping and soil sampling currently defining a porphyry system with both gold and base metal anomalies. Whilst Pepas remains the flagship, we see it as a small scale but highly profitable starter operation that will leverage Orosur’s capacity to expand its drilling programmes across Colombia and Argentina

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Orosur Mining

Prospect Resources (PSC AU) A$0.205, Mkt Cap A$144m – Latest drilling extends the known mineralisation at Kabikupa, Zambia

• In an announcement to the ASX, Prospect Resources has reported results from 10 of 14 holes drilled at the Kabikupa property at its Mumbezhi project in northwest Zambia.
• Prospect Resources highlights that the latest results from the 3,200m programme at Kabikupa have “significantly extended copper mineralisation at Kabikupa along strike now exceeding 1km, and zones confirmed up-dip closer to surface and at depth, following the shallow dip of the deposit”.
• Among the results highlighted today are:
  • An intersection of 17m at an average grade of 0.33% copper from a depth of 92m in hole KKDD-006; and
  • An intersection of 21m at an average grade of 0.48% copper from a depth of 247m in hole KKDD-010, including a 10m wide section grading 0.77% copper from 256m depth; and
  • An intersection of 18m at an average grade of 0.59% copper from a depth of 227m in hole KKDD-011; and
  • An intersection of 8.5m at an average grade of 1.06% copper from a depth of 69.3m in hole KKDD-015.
• Prospect Resources says that the latest drilling results “underpin meaningful upside to the existing Kabikupa Mineral Resource estimate, with an updated resource targeted for Q4 25”.
• Currently, Kabikupa hosts an ‘Inferred’ resource of 20.5 Mt @ 0.5% Cu “within the broader Mumbezhi Copper Project licence holdings … [containing a March 2025] … JORC-reportable Indicated and Inferred Mineral Resource estimate for Mumbezhi of 107.2Mt @ 0.5% Cu”.
• The 85% owned, 256km² Mumbezhi Copper Project is situated in the Central African Copperbelt region of north-western Zambia “in close proximity to several major mines which are hosted in similar geological settings”.
• Managing Director, Sam Hosack, said that the “Phase 2 drilling at Kabikupa has produced strong extensional results, confirming its significance to our strategy of materially growing the Mumbezhi Copper Project’s scale”.
• He explained that Prospect Resources is “awaiting more assay results from Phase 2 drilling at Nyungu Central, whilst exploration drilling continues at Nyungu South and West Mwombezhi as we continue to develop this significant copper opportunity in line with our strategy to prove up significant scale potential” at the Mumbezhi Copper Project.

Conclusion: The latest drilling expands the known extent of mineralisation at Kabikupa and is expected to contribute to an updated MRE expected in Q4 2025.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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