SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Thursday 17th July 2025

Tin slides as Myanmar set to resume exports

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Blencowe Resources (BRES LN) – Completion of drilling at Orom Cross

Capital Drilling (CAPD LN) – Drilling rates improve over the quarter whilst Reko Diq accelerates

Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) – NWR offer raised to A$0.065 (A$240m); Kinterra counters with A$0.066-0.067

MP Materials (MP US) – $500m equity raise

Orosur Mining* (OMI LN) – High-grade infill results supported by encouraging extension holes

Prospect Resources* (PSC AU) – Metallurgical results and copper concentrate grades confirm robust and scalable project at Mumbezhi in Zambia

SolGold (SOLG LN) – Plan to bring Cascabel to production by late 2028

URU Metals* (URU LN) – New Electro Magnetic survey planned to add to High-Resolution Gravity-Magnetic dataset over the Zeb nickel-PGM project in South Africa

Tin ($32,752/t) slides as Myanmar set to resume exports

• Tin prices have fallen 2% on reports that Myanmar’s Wa State is due to resume shipments.
• Tin has been supported by limited supply of ore being shipped from the major tin mining hub.
• The International Tin Association reports exports are due to resume within the coming months.
• Wa State produces 70% of Myanmar’s tin, which is the world’s third largest producer and main source of ore for Chinese smelters.
• We remain sceptical over the Wa State’s ability to ramp up production meaningfully given deteriorating ground conditions at the main producer, Man Maw, and persistent grade decline.
• LME tin inventories are sitting at August 2021 highs but Chinese smelter inventory levels are low.

IGTV – The Future of Mining: Gold, Copper, Rare Earths & M&A:  https://youtu.be/-G59iOq6x2c?si=z4fVkyHNP9isbOTB

Economics

US – Escalating attacks on Fed Chairman by the US administration raised concerns among investors over potential central bank independence.

• The US$ index fell 1.2% yesterday on reports that US President consulted with lawmakers whether he should fire Jerome Powell.
• Trump later suggested that it was “highly unlikely” that he would interfere.
• Trump said that the Fed rate should be as much as 3pp lower than their current levels of 4.25-4.50%.
• Long dated yields (30y) climbed above 5% this week as investors are weighing a change in the Fed leadership and higher inflation expectations.

UK – Employment dropped for a fifth consecutive month in June with wage growth slowing as businesses are feeling the pinch from latest government tax increases and minimum wage rises.

• The economy lost 41k jobs in June following a 25k drop in May (revised from -109k estimated previously).
• Soft payroll numbers would see the central bank opt for a rate cut, although, policymakers are also faced with high inflationary expectations.
• Markets continue to price in two rate cuts before year end with the first move coming in August.
• Payroll Change (Jun/May/Est): -41k/-25k(revised from -109k)/-35k
• Av Weekly Earnings (3M yoy%, May/Apr/Est): 5.0%/5.4%(revised from 5.3%)/5.0%
• Av Weekly Earnings ex Bonus (3M yoy%, May/Apr/Est): 5.0%/5.3%(revised from 5.2%)/4.9%
• Unemployment Rate (3M, May/Apr/Est): 4.7%/4.6%/4.6%

Currencies

US$1.1591/eur vs 1.1618/eur previous. Yen 148.72/$ vs 148.91/$. SAr 17.918/$ vs 17.956/$. $1.339/gbp vs $1.339/gbp. 0.645/aud vs 0.653/aud. CNY 7.180/$ vs 7.177/$

Dollar Index 98.7 vs 98.6 previous

Precious metals:

Gold US$3,328/oz vs US$3,340/oz previous

Gold ETFs 91.0moz vs 91.0moz previous

Platinum US$1,430/oz vs US$1,423/oz previous

Palladium US$1,267/oz vs US$1,242/oz previous

Silver US$38.0/oz vs US$38.3/oz previous

Rhodium US$5,700/oz vs US$5,700/oz previous

Base metals:

Copper US$9,623/t vs US$9,643/t previous

Aluminium US$2,566/t vs US$2,577/t previous

Nickel US$14,975/t vs US$15,096/t previous

Zinc US$2,699/t vs US$2,694/t previous

Lead US$1,976/t vs US$1,988/t previous

Tin US$32,752/t vs US$33,267/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$68.5/bbl vs US$68.5/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices were flat as the EIA estimated a w/w US inventory draw of 3.9mb to crude, offset by draws of 3.4mb to gasoline and 4.2mb to diesel stocks as refinery utilisation fell 0.8% w/w to 93.9%. This contrasts with the API estimates for a 19.1mb crude w/w build earlier this week that is also at odds with the Reuters forecast.
• European energy prices were stable as EU natural gas storage levels rose 3.3% w/w to 63.5% full (vs 72.4% 5-Yr average) with aggregate inventory at 720TWh and Italy now above 75% full.

Natural Gas €35.1/MWh vs €34.8/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $72.3/lb vs $72.3/lb previous

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (cfr Dalian) US$106.6/t vs US$106.6/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$459.2/t vs US$458.3/t

HCC FOB Australia US$178.0/t vs US$177.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$113.8/t vs US$113.0/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$33,335/t vs US$33,335/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$66,209/t vs US$63,263/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$8,851/t vs US$8,723/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$700/t vs US$680/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$995/t vs US$995/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$433/mtu vs US$433/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$410/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.0/lb vs US$5.0/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.8/kg vs US$24.0/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$289/t vs US$289/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,094/t vs US$1,094/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$362.5/t vs US$362.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$2,925.0/kg vs US$2,925.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

Company News

Blencowe Resources (BRES LN) 3.9p, Mkt Cap £13m – Completion of drilling at Orom Cross

• Blencowe Resources reports that it has completed its Phase 7 drilling campaign at the Orom Cross graphite project in Uganda.
• The drilling, which “was a core milestone for the ongoing Definitive Feasibility Study… [comprised] … 6,750 metres drilled across 239 holes – largest single drilling campaign in Orom-Cross history”.
• The majority of the drilling (5,581m in 186 holes) was aimed at resource expansion to “deliver additional processing capacity, higher production volumes and a longer mine life”.
• The campaign included six deep drillholes (721m) to test “mineralisation continuity at 100+ meter depth in both Beehive and Northern Syncline deposits … [and today’s announcement confirms that all] … holes ended in graphite which highlights the potential for a significantly larger resource”.
• Thirty-nine of the holes (1,181m) infilled the existing drill pattern to “to upgrade … [the] … 24.5Mt existing JORC resource into Measured/Indicated categories giving greater confidence in the estimation of both grade and tonnage”, with a further 8 holes (590m) used to gain geotechnical data “on rock strengths and characteristics to support DFS pit design, waste dump wall slopes for stability, and tailings planning”.
• Today’s announcement confirms that the mineralisation encountered in all holes “remains consistent with previous campaigns … [with] … ~70% large flakes”.
• The company expresses confidence that “based on historical evidence” it expects higher grade results from the deeper drilling at the Beehive deposit.
• Executive Chairman, Cameron Pearce, said that “this drill program has gone a long way to verifying that we have all these key attributes to establishing a tier one graphite asset”.
• Saying that the results “strengthen the case for Orom-Cross as a large, long-life and multi-cycle asset with exceptional product quality … [he said that] … Our focus now turns to integrating this into the DFS to demonstrate the full commercial value of the project within the global graphite supply chain”.

Conclusion: The latest drilling at the Orom Cross project provides data to update the mineral resource estimate and a foundation for a Definitive Feasibility Study.  A limited number of deep holes have shown mineralisation at depths of over 100m at the Beehive and Northern Syncline deposits providing potential follow-up targets.

Capital Drilling (C LN) 89p, Mkt Cap £174m – Drilling rates improve over the quarter whilst Reko Diq accelerates

• Mining services company Capital reports 2Q25 results.
• Revenue breakdown:

• • Drilling: $63m, up 4.8%yoy and -6% for the half year vs same period 2024.
  • Mining: $7m, down 61%yoy and -79% for the half year.
  • MSALABS: $17.4m, up 58%yoy and 49% for the half year

• Total revenue of $87.4m, down 2%yoy and -6% for the half year.
• Company increases group revenue guidance to $320-340m from $300-320m.
• Mining revenue supported by Reko Diq and expected to increase through the year.
• Average monthly revenue per operating rig up 9%qoq to $198k.
• Contraction extensions expected from Allied’s Sadiola mine and Barrick’s Lumwana copper mine.
• Company targeting improved performance from Nevada Gold Mines drilling contracts.

Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) 141p, Mkt Cap £245m – NWR offer raised to A$0.065 (A$240m); Kinterra counters with A$0.066-0.067

• The Company raised its offer price for New World Resources to A$0.065 from A$0.062.
• The Company also declared its offer unconditional.
• The offer now values NWR at ~A$240m.
• Kinterra Capital, a PE mining fund, increased its offer to A$0.066 or A$0.067 should Kinterra’s interest in NWR exceeds 30% on 24 July.
• The Company has 5 business dayas to match the Kinterra offer expiring 5pm (Sydney time) 24 July.
• The Company said to provide further updates as appropriate in due course.
• NWR Directors continue to recommend CAML offer.

MP Materials (MP US) US$59, Mkt Cap US$9.6bn – $500m equity raise

• The Company launched a $500m underwritten equity raise.
• The price is yet to be determined.
• Underwrites are expected to get a 30d option to purchase up to an additional 15% of the shares to cover over-allotments.
• Net proceeds to be used to expand RE products and magnets manufacturing facilities including 10X Facility as well as general corporate purposes.
• The stock hit a high of ~$63 earlier following the news of Apple $500m commitment and is trading at ~$56 pre market today.

Orosur Mining* (OMI LN) 9p, Mkt Cap £24m – High-grade infill results supported by encouraging extension holes

• Orosur reports further assay results from their Pepas gold project in Colombia.
• Orosur drilled six holes outside of the main Pepas core, with highlights including:

• • PEP038: 17m at 0.68g/t Au from surface
  • PEP040: 10m at 1.35g/t Au from surface
  • PEP041: 32m at 2g/t Au from 34m depth
  • PEP042: 3m at 1.4g/t Au from 105m

• Additionally, Orosur drilled three holes as part of their infill drilling  programme to support the Pepas MRE. Highlights include:

• • PEP044: 39m at 6g.t Au from surface
  • PEP045: 62m at 12.8g.t Au from 10m depth (inc. 13m at 23g/t Au)
  • PEP046: 53m at 3.4g/t Au from surface (inc. 10m at 6.3g/t Au)

• Orosur has now drilled 26 holes since reacquiring the asset in November 2024.
• The Company continues to boost their understanding of the primary controls of mineralisation, and suggests the potential for a feeder zone consisting of steeply dipping structures along the SW margin zone.
• Orosur will now test this theory with deeper drilling going forward, starting with additional soil sampling and surface mapping.

Conclusion: Orosur has expanded the area of mineralisation at Pepas and will now continue drilling step out holes to follow-up on today’s promising results. Meanwhile, the Company is progressing a maiden MRE for Pepas, with further infill results today highlighting the very high grade nature of the mineralisation from surface.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Orosur Mining

Prospect Resources* (PSC AU) A$0.19, Mkt Cap A$130m – Metallurgical results and copper concentrate grades confirm robust and scalable project at Mumbezhi in Zambia

Prospect Resources holds 85% in the Mumbezhi copper project in Zambia)

• Prospect Resources report the production of high-grade copper concentrates from a series of mineralised zones on the Mumbezhi copper project in Zambia.
• Copper concentrates grading:

• • Kabikupa:  27.5% copper, 310ppm cobalt at 95.3% copper recovery rates.
  • Nyungu Central fresh 31.1% copper, 0.9% cobalt at 96.2% copper recovery rate
  • Nyungu Central transition 32.1% copper, 9.1% cobalt at 81.4% copper recovery rate

• The metallurgical test work shows good results on a coarse primary grind size, which should help contain future capital and operating costs.
• Management are looking at the development of a central processing plant for the processing of ores from a series of project locations.
• Copper appears associated with chalcopyrite which should help the geological team locate further zones of mineralisation.
• Gold grades at Nyungu Central suggest potential for a payable by-product credit on the concentrate.

*An analyst from SP Angel has recently visited the Mumbezhi project in Zambia

SolGold (SOLG LN) 6.97p, Mkt Cap £206m – Plan to bring Cascabel to production by late 2028

1. Solgold has published plans describing its pathway to deliver production from its Cascabel copper/gold project in northern Ecuador by late 2028.
2. The plan, which stresses accelerated development “while reducing risk” envisages initial ore production from open-pit mining at the Tandayama America deposit by January 2028 with underground ore from the Alpala Sub-Level Cave (SLC) expected to be delivered in Q4 2028 with “full-scale … [production from the] … Alpala Block Cave … scheduled to deliver first ore by year end 2031”.
3. Today’s announcement confirms that the processing plant is expected to be completed in Q4 2028 with tailings disposal available at the on-site Cachaco and Parambas facilities “with mill commissioning in Q4 2028, ensuring no delays from tailings readiness”.
4. The company explains that “Early works on the Alpala portal and decline system are expected to enable underground access by Q4 2027, several months ahead of the original plan … [while the] … construction timeline for the concentrator has been optimised from 24 to approximately 18-21 months by implementing modular build strategies and early procurement of long-lead items”.
5. The planned on-site tailings disposal eliminates “dependence on the longer-lead coastal infrastructure” which, we imagine, could have involved a potentially protracted permitting process.
6. The timing of the various parts of the development is summarised in the following chart included in today’s announcement and available on the company’s website and at polaris.brighterir.com/public/solgold/news/rns/story/wk42j1r
7. Solgold confirms that environmental impact work is underway “to support full construction approvals”.
8. Drilling is continuing at Tandayama America “targeting near surface zones that may support a phased production strategy … [and provide additional data] … to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the potential of this orebody, in terms of scale, quality, mining method, and place in the overall Cascabel mine plan”.
9. CEO, Dan Vujcic, explained that the plan “prioritizes momentum, risk management, and early returns. By fast-tracking development declines, tailings, and the process plant—and using permitted infrastructure within the concession — Cascabel is now firmly on a path to production in late 2028”.
10. He said that it “brings forward first ore, strengthens our financing outlook, and highlights the value of the resource … [and said that] … we believe the project’s economics will surpass earlier expectations”.
11. As well as describing the development path for Cascabel, today’s announcement also describes plans to “launch a standalone exploration vehicle focused on early-stage copper-gold discoveries in Southern Ecuador”.
12. The new exploration entity will include Solgold’s Porvenir project, which, in March, Solgold described as hosting a resource of “493.7Mt @ 0.43% CuEq” as well as other projects including the Cisne Loja, Helipuerto, La Hueca and Timbara projects.
13. Solgold says that this “portfolio provides strong peer comparisons and valuation benchmarks, particularly for an eventual listing on either the Australian or Canadian market”.

Conclusion: Solgold has described a clear plan to bring Cascabel to production by the end of 2028. Initial ore from open-pit mining at Tandayama America is expected to be available early in 2028 and underground material from Alpala by the end of the year coinciding with completion of plant construction and on-site tailings disposal capacity. The release also discusses plans to package southern Ecuador projects into a separate entity which may seek a subsequent listing.

URU Metals* (URU LN) 4.4p, Mkt cap £2.8m – New Electro Magnetic survey planned to add to High-Resolution Gravity-Magnetic dataset over the Zeb nickel-PGM project in South Africa

(URU Metals Holds a 74.82% stake in Zeb Nickel Corp. which holds the Zebediela Nickel-PGM-gold project located on Northern Limb of the Bushveld Complex of South Africa.

Zeb Nickel Corp hold 76% of the underlying Zebediela Nickel project 26% held by BEE investors. URU Metals’ effective stake is 57% of the overall project.

The Project lies adjacent to IvanPlats’ Platreef Mine and south of Anglo-American Platinum’s flagship Mogalakwena Mine.  URU Metals remains technical operator on the Project.)

• Management at Zeb Nickel are planning to commission a SpectremPlus™ EM Survey to build on a High-Resolution Gravity-Magnetic dataset.
• The new survey will run a ~736 line-km SpectremPlus™ airborne time domain electromagnetic survey over the Zeb Nickel Project.
• Zeb Nickel’s new gravity and magnetic data inversion models confirm an ultramafic feeder zone between the Uitloop I and Uitloop II ultramafic bodies.
• These show several NE-SW structural corridors which have been interpreted as potential magma conduits.
• The SpectremPlus™ system should enabling imaging of conductive bodies to depths >700m depending on local geology, conductivity and noise conditions.
• “By integrating the EM conductivity voxels with the existing gravity and magnetic models, the technical team expects to generate a prioritised pipeline of drill-ready targets for potential semi-massive to massive nickel-sulphide mineralisation associated with Zones 2 and 3.”

Conclusion: The SpectremPlus™ system should allow the geological team to pinpoint conductive targets which may host higher-grade sulphide mineralisation.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to URU Metals

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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