SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Thursday 13th February 2025

Gold climbs as US$ pulls back on expectations for a start of Ukraine peace talks

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Conroy Gold and Natural Resources (CGNR LN) – Review of Clontibret drilling data

Empire Metals* (EEE LN) – Flowsheet development and metallurgical results from the Pitfield project, WA

Oriole Resources* (ORR LN) – Recently completed additional drilling provides an opportunity to review the Bibemi MRE

Risk sentiment picks up on the news of ceasefire discussions between Trump and Putin with European equity indices climbing and US$ index pulling back.

• In a phone call, Trump agreed to start negotiating an end to the war in Ukraine in a contrast to the previous administration approach to avoid US-Russia contact.
• During a press conference, Trump said that he may meet Putin in Saudi Arabia in the “not too distant future”.
• Shedding light on potential points of the proposed ceasefire, Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said that Ukraine’s NATO membership is unrealistic while telling NATO allies that the US would not contribute troops to the conflict and that Ukraine will probably have to accept the loss of some territory.

Economics

US – Inflation topped forecasts undermining expectations for more than a single rate cut this year.

• The monthly CPI climbed in January the most since August 2023.
• Inflation is reported to have a tendency to come in higher in January as many companies hike prices at the start of the year with some commentators suggesting the jump in prices in January may not continue going forward, Bloomberg writes.
• The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell while Treasury yields and the US$ index climbed on the report.
• Markets expect only a single 25bp rate cut in CY25 with the decision pushed out to October from September amid stronger than anticipated inflation numbers.
• CPI (%mom, Jan/Dec/Est): 0.5/0.4/0.3
• Core CPI (%mom, Jan/Dec/Est): 0.4/0.2/0.3
• CPI (%yoy, Jan/Dec/Est): 3.0/2.9/2.9
• Core CPI (%yoy, Jan/Dec/Est): 3.3/3.2/3.1

Japan – Producer prices inflation continued to accelerate in the beginning of the year to the fastest level in 19 months implying the central bank likely to continue with the tightening cycle.

• Yields continued to climb hitting the highest level in nearly 15 years.
• PPI (%mom, Jan/Dec/Est): 0.3/0.4(revised from 0.3)/0.3
• PPI (%yoy, Jan/Dec/Est): 4.2/3.9(revised from 3.8)/4.0

UK – The economy surprisingly recorded an expansion in the final quarter of 2024, although, most of the upside surprise was driven by stronger than expected government spending.

• Private consumption (0.0 v 0.3 est) was flat while business investment recorded a sharper than expected contraction (-3.2 v -0.5 est).
• Trade also performed poorly with exports down 2.5%qoq, nearly double the rate forecast.
• The pound climbed against the US$ following the release.
• Odds of a rate cut in May pulled back but only marginally with markets’ consensus remaining two 25bp cuts in CY25.
• GDP (%qoq, 4Q/3Q/Est): 0.1/0.0/-0.1
• GDP (%yoy, 4Q/3Q/Est): 1.4/1.0(revised from 0.9)/1.1

Zimbabwe – Kuvimba Mining House, a state owned miner, is tapping development banks, mining companies and traders for $950m to develop lithium, platinum and gold assets.

• More than half of the amount planned to be directed to development of an underground platinum operation at the long delayed Darwendale project, Bloomberg writes.
• Lithium project development is estimated to account for $275m with the Company having agreed a lithium JV with Chinese mining firms.
• Lithium deal is expected to be finalised by March paving the way for Phase 1 development at the Sandawana Project which is expected to run at 500ktpa lithium concentrate.

Currencies

US$1.0413/eur vs 1.0372/eur previous. Yen 154.10/$ vs 153.52/$. SAr 18.514/$ vs 18.453/$. $1.248/gbp vs $1.244/gbp. 0.627/aud vs 0.628/aud. CNY 7.296/$ vs 7.310/$.

Dollar Index 107.692 vs 107.948 previous.

Precious metals:         

Gold US$2,911/oz vs US$2,891/oz previous

Gold ETFs 83.9moz vs 83.8moz previous

Platinum US$999/oz vs US$986/oz previous

Palladium US$983/oz vs US$976/oz previous

Silver US$32.2/oz vs US$31.8/oz previous

Rhodium US$4,650/oz vs US$4,650/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$9,445/t vs US$9,393/t previous

Aluminium US$2,608/t vs US$2,631/t previous

Nickel US$15,445/t vs US$15,390/t previous

Zinc US$2,859/t vs US$2,863/t previous

Lead US$1,979/t vs US$1,989/t previous

Tin US$31,645/t vs US$31,405/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$74.7/bbl vs US$76.3/bbl previous

• Energy prices fell yesterday on hopes that President Trump’s talks with President Putin would lead to an end to the war in Ukraine and ease oil and natural gas trade flows.
• The EIA estimated US inventory w/w builds of 4.1mb to crude and 0.1mb to diesel stocks, partially offset by a 3mb draw to gasoline, with refinery utilisation up 0.5% w/w to 85% and domestic production at 13.5mboe/d.
• EU natural gas storage levels fell by 4.1% w/w to 47.2% full (vs 55.7% 5-Yr average) with aggregate storage now at 542TWh, which comes despite China’s warmest winter in the last decade reducing LNG competition.
• OPEC’s February monthly oil report made no change to global oil demand forecasts of 1.4mb/d growth in both 2025 and 2026, which is expected to outpace supply growth of ~1mb/d in each year.

Natural Gas €52.8/MWh vs €56.7/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $68.0/lb vs $67.6/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$106.9/t vs US$107.8/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$485.6/t vs US$484.6/t

HCC FOB Australia US$188.0/t vs US$188.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$106.6/t vs US$106.6/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$21,550/t vs US$21,550/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$59,694/t vs US$59,443/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$10,006/t vs US$9,987/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$815/t vs US$815/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,005/t vs US$1,005/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$338/mtu vs US$338/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$430/t vs US$430/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$4.6/lb vs US$4.6/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.8/kg vs US$24.8/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$294/t vs US$293/t

Global Rutile Spot Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,588/t vs US$1,588/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$315.0/t vs US$315.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$2,725.0/kg vs US$2,725.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$385.0/kg vs US$385.0/kg

Battery News

Company News

Conroy Gold and Natural Resources (CGNR LN) 2.45p, Mkt Cap £1.3m – Review of Clontibret drilling data

• Conroy Gold reports that it expects to complete a comprehensive programme of relogging over 16,000m of drill core from its Clontibret gold project in Co Monaghan during H1 2025.
• The company explains that the relogging, which will then move on to a re-examination of the Clay Lake mineralisation, enables “the construction of a 3D geological model to help enhance the Company’s understanding of the controls to mineralisation … [and to] … target high grade zones at depth”.
• Today’s announcement explains that “Since the last resource update for Clontibret in 2017, additional drilling at Clontibret intersected a large stockwork zone (95m @ 1.0g/t Au) associated with the Orlock Bridge Fault zone … [and that a] … similar broad zone of mineralisation was intersected in a shear zone c.7km to the northeast at Clay Lake gold target (100m @ 0.6g/t Au) in 2023”.
• Chairman, John Sherman, who replaced the company’s founder, Prof Richard Conroy, on his death in October 2024, said that “the re-logging programme, including the work on the antimony potential of the Clontibret target, is helping to define and prioritise the investment choices”.
• The announcement also clarifies that the “overriding priority of the Company is to secure asset level investment from strategic and/or financial partners to underwrite the next cycle of major investment”.

Conclusion: A comprehensive reassessment of the drill core from Clontibret is expected to be completed by the end of H1 2025 enabling detailed structural modelling and improved targeting of further exploration.

Empire Metals* (EEE LN) 8.45p, Mkt Cap £52m – Flowsheet development and metallurgical results from the Pitfield project, WA

• Empire Metals has issued a progress report on its hydro metallurgical testing and flow sheet development work for the Pitfield titanium project located around 300km north of Perth and 160km southeast of Geraldton, WA.
• The test work, carried out on material recovered from depths of up to 50m in10 diamond drill holes completed in September/October 2024, focussed on the deslimed fine mineral fraction below 38µm in size.
• The “Metallurgical research and testing have been focussed on conventional processing stages, such as gravity, flotation and acid digestion, to achieve a cost-effective process flowsheet aimed towards producing a high-value commercial product”.
• Results released in today’s announcement show that “Gravity separation recovered 60-80% of Ti-bearing minerals into a heavy mineral concentrate… [and that] … Acid leach tests on gravity concentrates achieved 95% dissolution of … [the titanium bearing mineral] …anatase” (TiO2).
• Today’s announcement also explains that “Separate flotation test work on whole of ore samples achieved 78% TiO₂ recovery into a rougher mineral concentrate”.
• Empire Metals explains that “Key features and benefits of the current flowsheet include:

• Highly friable, weathered ores allow for simple, low-energy scrubbing and desliming circuit
• Conventional mineral separation processes (gravity/flotation) to concentrate the Ti-bearing minerals, rejecting the gangue silicates
• Acid leaching and precipitation to produce a high-quality TiO₂ product (>80% TiO₂ )
• Further refining to achieve final product (>95% TiO₂) suitable for:
  • Chloride pigment market and the manufacture of paints and coatings, plastics and paper; and
  • Production of titanium metal (sponge)”.

• The use of flotation draws on the long-established experience of the kaolin (china-clay) industry where this technology is used “to remove any anatase present as this may discolour the kaolin products”.
• Empire Metals confirms that its “initial diagnostic work tested a range of reagent conditions, achieving a recovery high of 61% TiO₂”.
• The company outlines its plans for work in 2025 including “additional resource-focused drilling, scaled-up metallurgical testwork programmes and mining and engineering studies”.
• Commenting that the “metallurgical testwork and flowsheet development … continues to gather great momentum … [Managing Director, Sean Bunn said that the] … successful application of froth flotation to recover high-grade titanium dioxide minerals from the fines fraction of the weathered ore is an important step in designing an efficient and robust process flowsheet”.
• Mr. Bunn confirmed that the work had achieved recovery rates of up to 91% and said that “the metallurgical testwork will now focus on testing various titanium product development options and will assess the purification and refining stages to determine the steps required to achieve a high-purity, high value TiO2 product”.

Conclusion: Continuing, laboratory scale hydrometallurgical testing of shallow material from Pitfield is clarifying the potential flowsheet. Additional resource drilling, metallurgical testing and mining engineering studies is planned for 2025, and we await the results with interest.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Empire Metals

Oriole Resources* (ORR LN) 0.22p, Mkt cap £9m – Recently completed additional drilling provides an opportunity to review the Bibemi MRE

(BCM International is earning a 50% interest in Mbe and Bibemi by spending US$4m on exploration respectively)

• Oriole Resources reports the completion of a fifth phase of drilling at its Bibemi project in northern Cameroon.
• The programme comprised 56 drill holes (~6,915m) “at the Bakassi Zone 1 prospect (‘Bakassi Zone 1’ or ‘BZ1’), over three sub-prospects: BZ1-MRE, BZ1-NW, and BZ1-SW”.
• Results from the final 7 holes of the programme (BBDD-103-109) are still awaited, and the Phase 5 programme brings the total drilling at the project to 13,600m in 110holes and provides an opportunity for Oriole Resources to “review … all drilling data to date”.
• Currently, based on the first 4 phases of drilling, the 177km² Bibemi project hosts “an Inferred Mineral Resource Estimate (‘MRE’) of 375,000 ounces (‘oz’) contained gold (‘Au’), grading 2.30 grammes per tonne (‘g/t’) gold” based on an assumed gold price of US$2,000/oz.
• Today’s announcement explains that “the infill drilling results at BZ1-MRE, and subsequent review of the complete drilling data set, will enable a partial upgrade of the existing Australasian Joint Ore Reserve Committee (‘JORC’) Code Inferred MRE to the Measured and/or Indicated categories. The MRE should also benefit from significantly improved gold price assumptions”.
• Commenting on the progress of drilling at Oriole Resources Mbe project in central Cameroon, CEO, Martin Rosser, said that drilling will continue “with a single rig so that we can optimally manage the exploration programme, including, most importantly, the structural model interpretation … [while Oriole Resources] … works to delineate a mineral resource”.

Conclusion: Completion of the latest drilling campaign at Bibemi provides an opportunity to review results and update the current ‘Inferred’ mineral resource estimate of 375,000oz at an average grade of 2.3g/t gold in the light of the additional drilling data and higher gold prices.  We await the outcome with interest.

*SP Angel acts as Broker to Oriole Resources

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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