SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Thursday 11th September 2025

Gold ($3,620/oz) takes a breather following PPI data after strong rally

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Atlantic Lithium* (ALL LN) – Annual report as Ewoyaa awaits parliamentary ratification

Barrick Mining (B US) – Sale of Hemlo to Carcetti Capital for up to $1.1bn

Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM LN) – Financing Carcetti’s acquisition with gold stream

Cornish Metals* (CUSN LN) – South Crofty development advances as tin grind higher

DPM Metals (DPM CN) – Drilling from Dumitro Potok prospect

Kenmare Resources (KMR LN) – Progress update on WCP A plant upgrade

Sovereign Metals* (SVML LN) – Japan to fund Nacala Corridor upgrade in boost to Kasiya logistics

Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) – Drilling going to plan at Redmoor as MRE update on track for 1Q26

Tesoro Gold (TSO AU) – Expanded scoping study for El Zorro gold project, Chile

Gold ($3,620/oz) takes a breather following PPI data after strong rally

• Gold prices have pulled back marginally since hitting record highs of $3,678/oz.
• This likely reflects profit taking following a slew of dovish economic data which locked in a 25bp cut for September and boosted chances of a 50bp cut.
• US Treasury yields have fallen to c.4% for the 10 year, down 75bp from peaks earlier this year.
• The dollar weakened further, supporting metals across the complex.
• Core PPI came in lower than expected at 2.8%yoy vs 3.5% expected.
• Core CPI due today, expecting 3.1%yoy for August.
• Further signs of cooling inflation will likely support additional rate cut expectations, potentially lifting gold.

Copper ($9,978/t) hovers around three-month highs as tariff-trade unwind eases

• Copper prices are now up 10% over the past 12 months and are holding at their highest level this year.
• This comes despite a continued unwind of bullish positions from speculators who build large positions in anticipation of Trump tariffs on imports.
• The trade had triggered a wide arbitrage between COMEX and LME prices – this has now closed considerably to c.$150/t, having neared $1,500/t.
• Reuters reports a ‘complete collapse in short positions,’ with hedge funds exiting the market in search of other macro trades.
• CME copper future contracts have hit their lowest levels of participation since 2013, with average daily volumes at December 2021 levels.
• Short positions have hit their lowest levels since 2011.
• Analysts suggest funds are rotating into gold from copper, with commodity exposure in money manager accounts holding 47% exposure to gold and 7% in silver. (Saxo Bank)

IGTV – The Future of Mining: Gold, Copper, Rare Earths & M&A:  https://youtu.be/-G59iOq6x2c?si=z4fVkyHNP9isbOTB

The News Forum – The Buck Stops Here: https://www.thenewsforum.ca/series/thebuckstopshere

Economics

Currencies

US$1.1691/eur vs 1.1706/eur previous. Yen 147.80/$ vs 147.43/$. SAr 17.541/$ vs 17.538/$. $1.351/gbp vs $1.354/gbp. 0.661/aud vs 0.661/aud. CNY 7.123/$ vs 7.121/$.

Dollar Index 97.93 vs 97.80 previous.

Precious metals:

Gold US$3,627/oz vs US$3,646/oz previous

Gold ETFs 94.7moz vs 94.6moz previous

Platinum US$1,382/oz vs US$1,392/oz previous

Palladium US$1,176/oz vs US$1,156/oz previous

Silver US$41.0/oz vs US$41.2/oz previous

Rhodium US$7,150/oz vs US$7,150/oz previous

Base metals:

Copper US$10,005/t vs US$9,949/t previous

Aluminium US$2,637/t vs US$2,626/t previous

Nickel US$15,095/t vs US$15,140/t previous

Zinc US$2,889/t vs US$2,876/t previous

Lead US$1,986/t vs US$1,976/t previous

Tin US$34,715/t vs US$34,270/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$67.4/bbl vs US$66.9/bbl previous

• Crude prices edged higher as increasing geopolitical risk in the Middle East and threat of more sanctions on Russia outweighed the EIA estimating w/w US inventory builds of 3.9mb to crude, 1.5mb to gasoline and 4.7mb to distillate stocks, as refinery utilisation rose 0.6% to 94.9% on domestic output of 13.5mb/d.
• European energy prices edged lower as EU natural gas storage levels rose 1.4% w/w to 79.7% full (vs 86.4% 5-Yr average) with aggregate inventory at 907TWh and Italy almost 90% full.
• Petrofac announced that it has reached an agreement in principle with Samsung and Saipem regarding their claims relating to the Thai Oil project, which will enable work to conclude discussions with key stakeholders on the next steps towards implementation of the corporate restructuring that is targeted by the end of November.

Natural Gas €33.1/MWh vs €32.9/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $76.3/lb vs $76.5/lb previous

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (cfr Dalian) US$118.7/t vs US$119.0/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$454.4/t vs US$455.5/t

HCC FOB Australia US$187.0/t vs US$186.5/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$103.3/t vs US$104.8/t

Other:

Cobalt LME 3m US$33,335/t vs US$33,335/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$78,620/t vs US$78,988/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$9,757/t vs US$10,040/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$820/t vs US$840/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,015/t vs US$1,015/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$528/mtu vs US$528/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$400/t vs US$405/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.4/lb vs US$5.4/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.8/kg vs US$23.7/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$270/t vs US$270/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,102/t vs US$1,102/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs  US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$352.5/t vs US$352.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,075.0/kg vs US$3,075.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

EV & battery news

Mexico to introduce 50% tariff on Chinese cars in major trade overhaul

1. Mexico will impose a 50% import tariff on Chinese-made automobiles effective 1st January 2026.
2. The change follows a broader trade reform that ends many existing trade privileges for China.
3. Vehicles made in US, Canada or complying with USMCA rules will remain tariff-exempt.
4. The tariff is aimed at protecting domestic carmakers and reducing imports from China, which have risen sharply in recent years.
5. Analysts expect this will push Chinese automakers to boost local production or supply chain localisation to avoid the tariff.

 Company news

Atlantic Lithium* (ALL LN) 9.8p, Mkt Cap £70m – Annual report as Ewoyaa awaits parliamentary ratification

1. Atlantic Lithium report their annual report for 2025, ending 30^th June 2025.
2. Cash on hand at year end was A$5.4m, with the Company raising an additional £2m at 8.1p via an initial placement.
3. Atlantic has agreed a funding agreement with Long State to secure up to £28m over the next 12 months (inc. the initial £2m).
4. Cost-savings initiated to reduce cash outflows as Ewoyaa advances to FID, including salary reductions and workforce rationalisation.
5. At Ewoyaa, Atlantic gained the Mine Operating Permit, enabling construction of rhe Project.
6. Ewoyaa has also been granted an environmental permit, Land Use Certificate, and Water Use Permit.
7. The Company has applied for the Mining Lease for Ewoyaa and is waiting for parliamentary ratification.
8. Cabinet has authorised that revised terms of the Mining Lease will be presented for review.
9. Ratification of the Mining Lease will enable construction of Ewoyaa.
10. Ewoyaa MRE boosted to 37mt at 1.24% Li2O and has discovered new spodumene pegmatites at Agboville and Rubino in Cote d’Ivoire.

Conclusion: Atlantic have secured post-period funding via a funding agreement with Long State for up to £28m. This will enable the progression of Ewoyaa through the Parliamentary ratification process for the Mining Lease which, on approval, will enable the construction of the Project.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Atlantic Lithium

Barrick Mining (B US) $30, Mkt Cap $50bn – Sale of Hemlo to Carcetti Capital for up to $1.1bn

Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM LN) 7,760p, Mkt Cap £35bn – Financing Carcetti’s acquisition with gold stream

• Barrick has announced the sale of their Hemlo Gold Mine to Carcatti Capital, set to be renamed Hemlo Mining.
• Barrick will receive a cash consideration of $875m, HMC shares worth $50m and a production and gold-price linked cash payment structure of up to $165m.
• Hemlo:
  • 143koz production in 2024 at $1,769AISC
  • Guided 140-160koz at AISC of $1,500-1,600/oz for 2025.
  • Reserves: 1.6moz
  • M&I Resources: 3.4moz
  • Inferred: 0.62moz
• Carcetti is backed by ex-SSR Robert Quartermain, Wheaton Precious Metals and Orion Mine Finance.
• Wheaton will provide a gold stream up to $400m, concurrent with an aquity financing commitment up to $50m or 20% of the equity financing.
• Wheaton will purchase 13.5% of payable gold to 181koz, dropping down to 9% of payable gold until 157.3koz, dropping down to 6% for LOM.
• Wheaton expects to receive 20kozpa for first 10 years of LOM and 17koz for remaining four years of Hemlo.
• Wheaton will pay 20% of spot price of gold.
• Hemlo has produced 25moz of gold from the Ontario operation, transitioning from open pit to underground in October 2020.

Cornish Metals* (CUSN LN) 7.5p, Mkt Cap £94m – South Crofty development advances as tin grind higher

• Cornish Metals provides a development update on its progress at the South Crofty tin mine.
• The team has begun excavating the processing plant site, and is making way for construction of the new production winder due in the coming months.
• Stabilisation of the underground chamber of the pump station is complete, with the installation of new permanent pumps in progress.
• The pump station has been guided for completion 4Q25.
• Mine dewatering and NCK shaft refurbishment due for completion mid-2026.

Conclusion: Cornish continues to progress their development workstreams for South Crofty,  At spot prices of $35,000/t Sn, we have an NPV8 of $268m and IRR of 35% for South Crofty.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker. An SP Angel analyst formerly worked in the South Crofty tin mine in the 1980s and holds shares in Cornish Metals

DPM Metals (DPM CN) C$30, Mkt Cap C$5bn – Drilling from Dumitro Potok prospect

• Precious and base metals producer DPM, previously Dundee Precious Metals, reports Serbian drilling results.
• The Company has been focusing on their Rakita North and Frasen prospects, completing 45,000m over 70 holes ytd.
• Company expects to deliver maiden MREs for Dumitru Potok, Ratika North and Frasen prospects before year end.
• Highlights include:
  • Dumitru Potok: DPDD032: 132m at 1.53% Cu, 2.4g/t au and 12g/t Ag from 1,126m downhole (inc. 2.52% Cu, 4g/t Au and 19g/t Ag)
  • Rakita North: RADD055A: 159m at 0.7% Cu, 0.48g/t Au and 2g/t Ag from 438m
  • Rakita North: RADDGTH009: 194m at 0.48g% Cu, 0.29g/t Au and 1.59g/t Ag from 1,072m
  • Frasen porphyry prospect: BIDD24: 188m at 0.89g/t Au and 0.24% Cu from 105m
• Management highlights the Dumitru Potok results, which lie adjacent to Coka Rakita and hold potential to share infrastructure.
• DPM is increasing their exploration budget over the Rakita porphyry-skarn system.

Kenmare Resources(KMR LN) 318p, Mkt Cap £284m – Progress update on WCP A plant upgrade

• Mineral sands producer Kenmare provides an update form its Wet Concentrator Plant A upgrade project.
• The Company has begun connecting the two new dredges to the new feed preparation unit to WCP A.
• The upgrade is aimed to support access to the Nataka ore body (70% of the Moma MRE).
• WCP A has paused production to allow the connection work, estimated to take three-four weeks and included in 2025 guidance.
• Company on track to achieve 2025 guidance.
• CAPEX for WCP A guided on budget at $341m, 80% to be incurred over 2025.
• Transition to Nataka will start in 2Q26 and is expected to take 18 months.

Sovereign Metals* (SVML LN) 33p, Mkt Cap £213m – Japan to fund Nacala Corridor upgrade in boost to Kasiya logistics

(Sovereign currently holds 100% of the Kasiya project. Malawi has 10% free carry right. Rio Tinto holds 18.5% of Sovereign Metals)

• Sovereign Metals provides an update on the Kasiya transport corridor as it advances the project development.
• The Company highlights the Japanese Government has recently launched a Nacala Logistics Corridor development initiative.
• This sees them committing US$7bn alongside the African Development Bank to strengthen critical mineral supply chains from Malawi, Zambia and Mozambique.
• Funding focus will be on increasing capacity, reducing bottlenecks and boosting reliability , with Kasiya set to be a major beneficiary.
• The Nacala Corridor is Sovereign’s preferred transport route, and provides access to international markets via a deep-water port.
• Kasiya’s rutile product has already had certification approvals from Japan’s Toho Titanium as feedstock for the titanium metal market.
• Sovereign has also previously signed a MoU with Japan’s Mitsui & Co for rutile offtake.
• Sovereign is looking to build a six-kilometre rail spur linking the processing plant to the Nacala Corridor.

Conclusion: This is very encouraging for Sovereign, with Japan looking to provide major investments into logistics in Malawi, Zambia and Mozambique. Funds will be aimed at debottlenecking and boosting capacity across the Nacala Corridor, which is currently Sovereign’s preferred transport route to international markets. Japan has a major foothold in global critical minerals processing and two Japanese companies, Toho Titanium and Mitsui have provided confirmation of the viability of Kasiya’s rutile product in the past.

*SP Angel act as Nomad and broker to Sovereign Metals. An SP Angel analyst has visited the Kasiya mine site.

Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) 0.34p, Mkt Cap £8m – Drilling going to plan at Redmoor as MRE update on track for 1Q26

• Strategic Minerals, who are developing the Redmoor Tungsten-Tin-Copper project in Cornwall, provide an update.
• Three drill holes have now been completed from Pad 1.
• The three holes form part of a wider nine hole, 5,300m programme.
• The programme is intended is expected to support an updated JORC MRE for Redmoor.
• The exploration team notes that all three holes intersected ‘the full thickness of the Redmoor sheeted vein system.’
• Additionally, geological logging notes visible wolframite and chalcopyrite, which was analogous to mineralisation modelled at Redmoor.
• The sheeted vein system (SVS) hosts the higher grade zones of mineralisation in the 2019 MRE.
• Assay results are due soon.
• Highlights:
  • CRD033: twinned a 1980s hole and intersected full apparent width of the SVS from 428m to 562m showing wolframite and chalcopyrite consistent with historic data.
  • CRD034b: extended from 550m planned to >600m given additional mineralisation observed, intersecting SVS from 439m to 583m
  • CRD035: Intersected SVS between 444m and 487m, intersected both tungsten and copper mineralisation
• The Company has now mobilised a second rig to site with three holes planned from two pads each.
• The updated MRE is due for 1Q26.
• Current Redmoor MRE:
  • 11.7mt at 1.17% SnEq (0.56% WO₃, 0.16% Sn, 0.50% Cu)

Conclusion: Strategic Minerals is in the progress of updated the 2019 JORC MRE for the Redmoor Tungsten-Tin-Copper project. Drilling is advancing as planned, with all three holes reported today intersecting the sheeted vein system hosting the higher grade zones of mineralisation. Strategic is derisking Redmoor at a time of rising tungsten prices, with APT 88.5% WO₃ rising 45% in the past month to $655/mtu. An SP Angel analyst recently visited the Redmoor site and noted was impressed by the focus on technically driven exploration and enthusiasm within the team. Metallurgical testwork is underway to bring the project closer towards production.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and broker to Strategic Minerals. An SP Angel analyst recently visited the Redmoor site

Tesoro Gold (TSO AU) A$0.05, Mkt Cap A$91m – Expanded scoping study for El Zorro gold project, Chile

• Tesoro, who hold 90% of the El Zorro gold project in Chile, provide results from their updated scoping study.
• The study envisages an open pit operation feeding a 3mtpa plant and 15 year LOM producing 111kozpa over the first nine years of production.
• CAPEX at US$248m, AISC averages $1,216/oz.
• Recoveries of 94% via a conventional CIP process plant.
• AT NPV7.5 of $663m and 51% IRR at $2,750/oz Au.
• AT NPV7.5 of $966m and 68% IRR at $3,300/oz Au.
• Going forward, Tesoro will optimise the project with mine scheduling refinements, evaluation of underground potential, environmental and permitting processes to support PFS workstreams.
• MRE growth targeted via shallow extensiosn of Ternera deposit, drilling of hanging-wall at Ternera East and broader district-scale exploration.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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