SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Monday 9th June May 2025

Copper prices pushing higher this morning as China smelter expansion accelerates

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Empire Metals* (EEE LN) – High-grade TiO2 results from flowsheet development further derisk Pitfield

Galantas Gold* (GAL LN) – Proposed shares for debt deal with Ocean Partners to become a 80% owner and operator of the Omagh Gold Proejct

Petra Diamonds (PDL LN) – Sales tender results as company announces it will report sales on a quarterly basis in future

Rome Resources (RMR LN) – Additional tin mineralisation identified at Mont Agoma, DRC

Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) – Progress report on Leigh Creek & Redmoor

Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) – Placing to support Mushima North polymetallic project, Zambia

Copper – ($9,722/t) prices pushing higher this morning as China smelter expansion accelerates

• Copper inventories fell another 10,000t to 132,400 on the LME accelerating the long-running drawdown of physical stocks
• LME stocks have more than halved since the beginning of this year, with metal being redirected to the USA in preparation for further tariffs.
• China copper smelter expansion continues, with output hitting record levels this year. (Bloomberg)
• TCRCs continue to slide, supporting miners whilst smelters cut, with Glencore shutting its Philippines facility earlier this year.
• China smelters are increasingly state-owned, reducing their cost pressures, although privately owned smelters still account for 25% of China’s output. (CRU)
• China’s refined copper output is set to rise 10% this 1H25, and 5% for 2025yoy.
• Ivanhoe’s Kamoa-Kakula mine has been disrupted recently, further limiting concentrate availability and supporting higher prices.
• A weaker dollar is also supporting Chinese buyers as they look to replenish stockpiles diverted to the USA.

Gold ($3,321/oz) bounces from weakly lows after stronger-than-expected US labour data

• Gold prices have bounced from below $3,300/oz, climbing steadily after last week’s rally was hit.
• Gold had been tracking higher on lower US treasury yields and a weaker dollar.
• However, the Friday NFP report, which beat expectations, saw gold prices slide sharply, giving up the week’s gains.
• The 10 year yield rose back over 4.5%, up c.15bp, although the dollar has remained weak.
• The euro, pound and yen have all shown strength against the dollar as investors continue to reallocate capital elsewhere.
• However, gold investors should pay closest attention to China, whose central bank continues to add holdings.
• However, the recent rally in platinum may reflect Chinese retail investors seeking cheaper alternatives to bullion.

Vox Markets: Mining Matters: https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/articles/mining-matters-sp-angel-s-john-meyer-on-commodities-capital-and-change-7c82c6d/

SharePickers: Copper – We’ve Never Seen This Before in the World: Video: 

Podcast: https://audioboom.com/channels/4099560-the-sharepickers-podcast-with-justin-waite

Economics

US – Jobs growth moderated in May, although, not as much as was expected with unemployment rate holding steady.

• The economy added 139k jobs vs 126k forecast while previous two months’ readings were revised lower by combined 95k.
• Jobless rate held steady at 4.2%, although, labour force participation dropped to a three month low of 62.4%.
• Should the participation rate have remained unchanged, unemployment is likely to have increased last month.
• Healthcare sector added 62k jobs, above 44k monthly average, while leisure and hospitality added 48k jobs vs 20k average.
• Manufacturing (-8k) and federal government (-22k) shed jobs.
• Pay climbed more than expected (+0.4%mom vs 0.3%mom est).
• Treasury yields gained while S&P 500 futures were up on the announcement.

US/China representatives are to hold fresh talks in London later today following a phone call between leaders last week.

• Negotiations resume as both sides accused each other to renege on a deal reached in Geneva in May.

China – Consumer deflation extended into a fourth month while producer prices remained in a negative territory for nearly three years now (32 months).

• Outlook remains challenging with consumer sentiment struggling amid a prolonged property slump and ongoing trade wars with the US.
• CPI (%yoy, May/April/Est): -0.1/0.1/-0.2

Trade growth slowed with shipments to the US falling the most since 2020.

• Exports to the US fell 34.4%yoy in May.
• Overseas shipments outside the US climbed 11%.
• Imports were down 3.4% adding to further signs of struggling domestic demand.

Exports (%yoy, May/April/Est): 4.8/8.1/6.0

Currencies

US$1.1427/eur vs 1.1428/eur previous. Yen 144.18/$ vs 143.86/$. SAr 17.718/$ vs 17.778/$. $1.357/gbp vs $1.355/gbp. 0.652/aud vs 0.650/aud. CNY 7.183/$ vs 7.186/$.

Dollar Index 98.93 vs 99.12.

Precious metals:

Gold US$3,325/oz vs US$3,356/oz previous

Gold ETFs 88.4moz vs 88.4moz previous

Platinum US$1,215/oz vs US$1,157/oz previous

Palladium US$1,087/oz vs US$1,014/oz previous

Silver US$36.4/oz vs US$36.0/oz previous

Rhodium US$5,425/oz vs US$5,575/oz previous

Base metals:

Copper US$9,719/t vs US$9,721/t previous

Aluminium US$2,462/t vs US$2,451/t previous

Nickel US$15,496/t vs US$15,490/t previous

Zinc US$2,657/t vs US$2,677/t previous

Lead US$1,892/t vs US$1,989/t previous

Tin US$32,373/t vs US$32,480/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$66.2/bbl vs US$64.9/bbl previous

• The US Baker Hughes rig count was down 4 to 559 units last week (-35 or 6% y/y), with oil rigs down 9 to 442 units (-50 y/y) and gas rigs up 5 to 114 units (+16 y/y), as the Permian and Eagle Ford basins each lost 3 rigs.
• European energy prices are stable EU natural gas storage inventory levels rose above 50% of capacity last week to 578TWh (51% full), compared to a 61.6% average over the last five years.

Natural Gas €35.9/MWh vs €36.5/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $71.0/lb vs $71.0/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$96.3/t vs US$95.5/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$466.0/t vs US$466.9/t

HCC FOB Australia US$185.0/t vs US$186.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$107.3/t vs US$107.5/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$33,700/t vs US$33,700/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$61,441/t vs US$60,985/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$8,489/t vs US$8,396/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$610/t vs US$610/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$995/t vs US$995/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$408/mtu vs US$408/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$420/t vs US$420/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.0/lb vs US$5.1/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.6/kg vs US$24.8/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$361/t vs US$361/t

Global Rutile Spot Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,465/t vs US$1,465/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$365.0/t vs US$365.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$2,845.0/kg vs US$2,825.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

Battery News

Auto industry reeling from China’s rare-earth export curbs

• China’s curb on rare-earth exports took effect last week, sending the global auto industry into panic.
• China made the decision to suspend the export of critical minerals as a response to tariffs introduced by Donald Trump.
• The auto industry needs to find alternative magnet supplies, but China controls up to 70% of global rare-earth mining, 85% of refining capacity and a round 90% of rare-earth metal allow and magnet production.
• This is the third large supply chain shock for the auto industry in the last five years, after the coronavirus pandemic and a semiconductor shortage a year later.
• China has since granted temporary export licenses to rare-earth suppliers of the top three US automakers, according to two sources familiar with the matter.

Nio to supply McLaren with batteries

• Chinese automaker and battery maker Nio will supply British supercar brand McLaren for its hybrid models, according to local reports in China.
• The battery pack will be based on Nio’s in-house developed 4680 large cylindrical battery cells, with small-scale production expected to begin next year, the report said.
• The collaboration is primarily down to the two companies’ common investor, the Abu Dhabi government fund CYVN Holdings.

Company News

Empire Metals* (EEE LN) 16p, Mkt Cap £108m – High-grade TiO2 results from flowsheet development further derisk Pitfield

• Empire reports further results from metallurgical testwork at the Pitfield titanium project.
• Today the Company reports a product assaying 99.25% TiO2 has been achieved.
• The product contains limited levels of deleterious elements and Management believe it will be suitable for titanium sponge metal/high-grade titanium dioxide pigment production.
• This product was generated using a flowsheet with the following components:
  • Composite sample passed through a wet scrubber to break up the clays
  • Coarse material fed (>38µm) to a gravity test circuit, whilst finer material processed using froth flotation
  • Rougher flotation concentrate then blended to form feedstock for acid leach
  • Then two samples leached via separate processes:
    1. Acid bake followed by hot water leach
    2. Dilute acid pre-leach followed by direct acid bake and hot water leach
  • Iron reduced in ferric state by adding iron filings.
  • Titanium recovered from acid leach stage into titanyl sulphate, whilst residue solids separated.
  • Hydrolysis breaks down titanyl sulphate to produce hydrated TiO2, whilst recovering H₂SO₄ at temperatures of 106 degrees C for two hours.
• Empire will now ‘significantly scale up the testwork’ with 70t of bulk sample available from February drilling.
• The bulk sample final product samples will be shared with prospective downstream end-users for quality assessment.

Conclusion: This is a very encouraging update from Empire, who are developing the large-scale Pitfield titanium project. The primary question around Pitfield since discovery has concerned the potential for an economic flowsheet. Whilst it is too early for recovery estimates, the high-grade nature of the product at 99.25% TiO2 shows Pitfield’s potential to feed into the premium titanium metal sponge or pigment market. Premium pricing is also expected to be supported by the limited deleterious impurities in the product. We look forward to further results form bulk samples currently underway, and see today’s announcement as a further derisking event for the Company.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Empire Metals

Galantas Gold* (GAL LN) 6.3p, Mkt Cap £5.9m – Proposed shares for debt deal with Ocean Partners to become a 80% owner and operator of the Omagh Gold Proejct

• The Company agreed with Ocean Partners to form a JV for development of the high grade Omagh Gold Project, Northern Ireland.
• Under binding terms of the agreement, Ocean Partners will exchange ~US$14m in existing loans for an 80% interest in the project.
• Ocean Partners will own a 80% interest in Flintridge Resources and Omagh Minerals, subsidiaries of Galantas which together own the Omagh Project.
• Galantas will retain the remaining 20% stake.
• Additionally, Ocean Partners will have the option to convert ~US$1m of remaining debt into a 0.001% interest in Flintridge at any time after mining has restarted at the Omagh Project.
• Separately, Ocean Partners will invest an initial US$3m in the Project for exploration, a restart plan and G&A costs for a period of one year.
• After that Ocean Partners have an option to invest an additional US$5m for exploration and commissioning a development programme for a period of up to one year.
• Galantas will be free carried on the initial US$3m and will have the option to contribute pro rata for future investments.
• Ocean Partners will become operators of the project.
• Galantas will have an option to convert its 20% interest in Flintridge into a 3% NSR during the first year of the JV.
• 50% of NSR is subject to a US$8m buyback provision by Flintridge.
• If Galantas does not convert in the first year and its interest falls sub 10%, the Company’s ownership will automatically convert to a 1.5% NSR that will be subject to a US$4m buy back provision.
• The transaction is subject to shareholder approval scheduled for August 5.
• Once completed, the Company is planning focus on the Gairloch Project launching a drilling programme and preparing a mineral resource estimate..
• Separately, Melquart, a ~25% shareholder in the Company, indicated it will convert its convertible debt holding (US$8775k) into new shares (117.6m at 4.4p) taking its interest to 35%.

Conclusion: The proposed deal converts most of outstanding debt into a 80% interest in the Omagh Gold Project while allowing the Company to retain an exposure to the asset either in the form of an interest in the Project or an NSR. Meanwhile, the team is planning to accelerate exploration work at the Gairloch Polymetallic Project, Scotland.

*SP Angel acts as Broker to Galantas Gold

Petra Diamonds (PDL LN) 19.4p, Mkt Cap £39m – Sales tender results as company announces it will report sales on a quarterly basis in future

• Following the decision, in April, to postpone its Tender 5 sale of diamonds from its Cullinan mine, Petra Diamonds has announced the results of a combined Tender 5&6 sale of 613,747 carats of diamonds which have realised US$53m at an average price of US$86/carat.
• The announcement confirms that the sale includes 84,479 carats sold for US$14 million from the Williamson mine in Tanzania – “the final tender sale from the Williamson Mine under Petra’s ownership following the completion of the sale of the asset in May 2025”.
• “Like-for-like rough diamond prices, excluding single stones, for goods sold improved by 3% on Tender 4 FY 2025 across most product categories. YTD like-for-like prices are down 16% compared to the equivalent six tenders of FY 2024, mainly from smaller size categories”.
• Acknowledging that the “Cullinan Mine has been experiencing product mix weakness, resulting in a -6% movement in prices achieved due to product mix compared to Tender 4 … [Petra Diamonds says that it] … expects the product mix to improve, as we continue to ramp up production from the CC1E and from the Western side of the C-Cut block”.
• The company also confirms that in future and “In response to fluctuations in diamond prices and demand, the Company no longer follows regular tender cycles and may postpone portions of tenders or sell goods as run-of-mine” and consequently “sales results will be reported quarterly, along with the operating update, in the future”.

Rome Resources (RMR LN) 0.34p, Mkt Cap £19m – Additional tin mineralisation identified at Mont Agoma, DRC

• Rome Resources reports that recent drilling at its Bisie North project in the North Kivu Province, DRC has identified what is interpreted as “a new tin zone on the eastern flank of the Mont Agoma prospect”.
• Hole MADD-030 is reported to have intersected a “a 40m wide tin-bearing zone at shallow depth … [in a] … shallow weathered sequence”.
• At this stage, although there is “visual identification of … [the tin mineral] … cassiterite is limited in the weathered rock, initial Niton XRF readings confirms elevated tin levels” and formal assay results are awaited.
• The company explains the intersection in Hole MADD-030 “lies well outside both the current mineralised footprint and the tin-in-soil geochemical anomaly, potentially representing either a new tin system zone or a fault repetition of known mineralisation”.
• Rome Resources says that the “newly drilled zone further suggests that there could be significant additional tin resource along the eastern flank of Mont Agoma”.
• Explaining that up to now drilling at Mont Agoma “has focused on the main ridge where the geochemical anomaly is strongest … [CEO, Paul Barrett, said that the] … initial indications from MADD030 open up the exciting scenario where tin mineralisation is present beyond the limits of our known footprint, potentially opening up the whole of the eastern flank of Mont Agoma”.

Conclusion: The recent drilling beyond the core geochemical anomaly at Mont Agoma raises the possibility of more extensive mineralisation than originally thought.  We await assay results for an insight into the grade.

Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) 0.29p, Mkt Cap £6.8m – Progress report on Leigh Creek & Redmoor

• Strategic Minerals reports that it has received written confirmation from the purchaser of the call option to acquire the company’s Leigh Creek copper project in South Australia that it will “make the payment to …of A$100,000 for … [for a] … call option to acquire 100% of the Leigh Creek Copper Mine” this week.
• The purchaser, previously announced as Axis Mining & Minerals, will have a six month period in which to exercise the option to acquire Leigh Creek.
• Today’s announcement also reports that the company “has signed a drilling contract with Priority Drilling UK Ltd for a fully-funded drilling programme” at its Redmoor project in Cornwall.
• The new drilling, which is planned to start on 23^rd June, will comprise an ~5,300m programme to generate data to “inform a new JORC (2012) compliant Mineral Resource Estimate (“MRE”) for Redmoor, expected to be completed in Q1 2026.  This will be the first update since Redmoor’s JORC compliant inferred MRE (2019) of 11.7 Mt at 1.17 Tin equivalent (0.56% WO₃, 0.16% Sn, 0.50% Cu)”.
• Dennis Rowland, Project Manager of Strategic Minerals’ local operating company, Cornwall Resources, said that the “signing of the contract for drilling services marks the first major milestone for CRL’s SPF Project and our plans for unlocking further project advancements at Redmoor.  With drilling now locked in to commence on 23 June we are working at pace to complete our other programme preparations”.

Conclusion: Progress on the disposal of Leigh Creek underlines Strategic Minerals’ focus on the Redmoor project where the latest phase of drilling is expected to start on 23^rd June.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and broker to Strategic Minerals

Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) 0.033p, Mkt Cap £1.22m – Placing to support Mushima North polymetallic project, Zambia

• Tertiary has raised £350k gross by placing 1,167m new shares at 0.03p/share.
• Certain directors have agreed to subscribe for £25,000 of additional capital, once the Company is out of the close period.
• MD Richard Belcher states funds will be used to advance Mushima North in Zambia, with an air-core drill programme to test over 1km of strike.
• JV agreements continue with KoBold and First Quantum.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Tertiary Minerals

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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