SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Monday 6th October 2025

Gold price hits fresh high in Asian trading today

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Celsius Resources (CLA LN) – Drilling results from the MCB project, Philippines

Critical Metals (CRML US) – US government considers an equity stake

DPM Metals (DPM CN) – Ecuador terminates Loma Larga Gold Project environmental license

Gemfields Group (GEM LN) – Auction of rubies from the Montepuez mine

Great Western Mining* (GWMO LN) – Drilling underway at West Huntoon

Jubilee Metals Group (JLP LN) – Progress report on sale of South African businesses and Zambian developments

Predictive Discovery (PDI AU) – Merger with Robex Resources

Gold ($3,950/oz) – prices hit fresh high in Asian trading today

• Prices have been driven higher in Asian trading hours in recent weeks with weakening prices suggesting selling in UK and US trading through the rest of the day.
• We suspect Central Banks in China, India and the other BRICS continue to buy gold to support greater trade in their local currencies.
• India is reported to be diversifying away from the USD and buying gold to support international validity of its currency .
• China is trying to persuade BHP to price its iron ore sales into China in RMB, highlighting how the authorities are working to enforce the adoption of trade in their local currency.
• ETF buying by institutions is reported to be driving gold prices higher with Gold ETFs rose to this morning vs 97.2moz last week
• Over $60bn has flowed into ETF so far this year with nearly $14bn over the past four weeks (WGC)
• Some investors are reported to be shorting the US dollar on expectations for further interest rate cuts and extra money printing from Trump’s big, beautiful bill.
• The Dollar Index has weakened substantially to 98.17 vs 97.81 last Friday.
• Funds are flowing into Gold as a default currency with investors are unsure of what other currency or what else to buy.
• Trump policies continue to unsettle investors and markets with a degree of uncertainty over how well his higher Tariff policies are working.
• While tariffs have long existed for the taxing of goods into the EU and China it is the sudden, dramatic and large-scale imposition of US tariffs into the world’s largest consumer which are so unsettling.

Copper ($10,666/t) price continues to rises as market digests consequences of potential shortages as a result of the Grasberg mud rush disaster

• Copper prices continue to post gains following the mud rush incident at Freeport’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia.
• While it will take a few weeks for the loss of copper concentrates to be seen in the physical market concentrate buyers will be forced to find concentrates from elsewhere
• Any further supply disruptions will be truly disastrous for a market which is already walking into a significant deficit by the end of this year.
• Land slips, seismic events and mud flows and labour unrest are just a few of the events which might hit primary production
• Deficit: The copper market increasingly looks set for a significant deficit next year of around 350-450kt.
• Disruption: Reports of a new AI initiative in China are seen as ramping up demand for copper in China while AI power demand growth in the US is also rising in the US
• MIIT China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reported they would slow domestic non-ferrous metal supply to 1.5% from 5%.

UK EV sales hit record high as subsidies drive demand

• Battery EV sales rose 31% yoy in September to 72,800 units, the highest monthly total on record.
• Plug-in hybrid sales jumped 56% to 38,300, lifting total electrified vehicle share above 50% of the UK market.
• Overall new-car sales were up 14% yoy to 312,900, the strongest September of sales since 2020.
• Government grants of up to £3,750, reintroduced in July, apply to about a quarter of BEVs priced under £37,000, including Citroën, Renault, Nissan and Vauxhall models and has helped drive sales.
• Chinese brands, including BYD, who have a growing presence in the UK, are excluded due to manufacturing emissions rules.
• Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander said the discounts have made EVs “within reach of more households than ever before.”
• The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) has said industry investment is paying off, though demand still trails ZEV mandate targets.

Trade Live with IG, Monday 22 September 2025: FED Powell Tomorrow, Core PCE Week Ahead: Stocks, Investing, Trading

• Commodity Corner (from 9:10am):   https://upl.inc/v5ppo7
• BHP to Buy Anglo AND Teck? Bold Mining Play: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/t7OjNdRtXOc
• FED Interest Looming, USA & China Talks On Global Ports: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1z98dilnlxY&t=6812s

Economics

US – Shutdown maintained as another vote failed in the Senate on Friday while Trump threatened to pull funding to Democratic states and promised more layoffs.

• NFPs from last week delayed and expected to be released once shutdown is lifted.
• ISM data released on Friday showed the US service sector stalled in September as business activity contracted for the first time since the pandemic and orders barely grew.
• That saw markets adding to expectations of another rate cut in October.
• US sees breakthrough in Trade / Tariff discussions with China

China – Moon or Mooncake Festival also called the Mid-Autumn festival started today

Mainland China, Taiwan and South Korea markets are shut.

• Technically it’s a one-day holiday but its also rolled into China’s Golden Week.
• The SHFE market is closed and will reopen on 9^th October
• Huge numbers of Chinese people travel through the week, much like Thanksgiving in the US.

China – Plenum to set next Five-Year Plan for 2026 through 2030

• The plan will focus on long-term planning, economic, social and governance.
• 2025 will likely discuss:
  • US and EU Tariff and relations
  • The substantial fall of foreign investment into China
  • Exports: diversification of sales and expansion.
  • Support for SMEs and the private sector which is a major employer, particularly in the service sectors
  • Greater control of industrial planning and activity from the centre
  • Clamp down on illegal drug manufacturing and better control smuggling.
  • Technology development – eg development of Chinese AI semiconductors
  • AI expansion – massive push into AI as part of their next 5-year plan
  • Anti-Involution as a policy to potentially takeover from the ‘Dual Circulation’ policy previously trialled
    • Anti-involution involves the rationalisation, optimisation and streamlining of production to raise profits across highly-competitive sectors
    • Target sectors so far:
    • EVs, Solar panels, lithium mining and other non-ferrous metals with greater CPC control of mining and refining through examination of permits and operations.
  • Belt & Road expansion
  • Export permit for control of Rare Earths and Critical materials (See Rare Earth export permitting regime)
  • Slowing of domestic non-ferrous metal supply from 5% to 1.5% as reported by MIIT
• Tariffs: we continue to await a settlement of the tariff negotiations by US and Chinese negotiators.
• The last Politburo meeting in July saw ”efforts must also be made to “assist small and micro-sized enterprises,”
• To assist “foreign trade enterprises facing significant shocks, optimizing export tax rebate policies, and building high-level pilot free trade zones and other platforms for opening-up,”
• We await further news with a potential announcement if Trump and Xi meet at the APEC summit in South Korea at end October.

Conclusion: China’s policymakers are tackling challenges on many fronts. Western policymakers would do well to follow their policies and strategy.

Japan – Sanae Takaichi is picked as head of the Liberal Democratic Party.

• This puts her on course to become the nation’s first female PM with the vote due on October 15.
• She is a former economic security and internal affairs minister.
• Takaichi is reported to be a proponent of “Abenomics” strategy to stimulate economy with aggressive fiscal spending and easy monetary policy.
• She has previously criticised the BOJ interest rate increases.
• The equity index hit a new high on the news of the appointment with short term rates seen pulling back.
• The yen weakened against the US$ hitting 150 mark..

Israel/Hamas – Hamas agreed to release all Israeli prisoners but the rest of Trump 20-point peace plan will be subject to negotiations.

• Hamas did not address other key parts of the plan including disbarment.
• “I believe they are ready for a lasting PEACE,” Trump commented on the news.
• “Israel must immediately stop the bombing of Gaza, so that we can get the Hostages out safely and quickly!”

Currencies

US$1.1705/eur vs 1.1729/eur previous. Yen 150.08/$ vs 147.49/$. SAr 17.257/$ vs 17.248/$. $1.345/gbp vs $1.345/gbp. 0.661/aud vs 0.661/aud. CNY 7.121/$ vs 7.121/$.

Dollar Index 98.17 vs 97.81 previous.

Precious metals:

Gold US$3,930/oz vs US$3,863/oz previous

Gold ETFs 97.3moz vs 97.2moz previous

Platinum US$1,620/oz vs US$1,578/oz previous

Palladium US$1,275/oz vs US$1,260/oz previous

Silver US$48.6/oz vs US$47.4/oz previous

Rhodium US$7,075/oz vs US$7,075/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$10,666/t vs US$10,567/t previous

Aluminium US$2,701/t vs US$2,697/t previous

Nickel US$15,400/t vs US$15,395/t previous

Zinc US$3,018/t vs US$3,024/t previous

Lead US$2,010/t vs US$2,028/t previous

Tin US$36,715/t vs US$37,580/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$65.6/bbl vs US$64.7/bbl previous

Henry Hub Gas US$3.47/mmBtu vs US$3.42/mmBtu last Friday

• Crude oil prices edged higher after the OPEC+ group agreed to implement a second consecutive monthly production increase of 137kb/d in November from the 1.65mb/d of additional voluntary adjustments announced in April 2023.
• The US Baker Hughes rig count was flat at 549 units last week (-36 or 6% y/y), with oil rigs down 2 to 422 units (-57 y/y) and gas rigs up 1 to 118 units (+16 y/y), as the Permian Basin lost 2 rigs to 251 units (-53 y/y).

Natural Gas €32.4/MWh vs €31.3/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $81.0/lb vs $80.9/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$103.8/t vs US$104.0/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$449.1/t vs US$449.1/t

HCC FOB Australia US$190.5/t vs US$190.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$107.8/t vs US$107.0/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$35,000/t vs US$35,000/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$78,917/t vs US$78,917/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$10,012/t vs US$10,012/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$830/t vs US$830/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,015/t vs US$1,015/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$593/mtu vs US$593/mtu

China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$93/lb vs US$93/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$400/t vs US$400/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.4/lb vs US$5.4/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.6/kg vs US$23.6/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$270/t vs US$270/t

US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,979/t vs US$2,979/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,102/t vs US$1,102/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$352.5/t vs US$352.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,075.0/kg vs US$3,075.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg

EV & battery news

CATL debuted the Shenxing Pro LFP battery for Europe at the start of September

• CATL has unveiled the Shenxing Pro LFP battery for the European market, which it will make available in two variants.
  • Super Long Life & Long Range: 758km WLTP (Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicle Test Procedure) range with a 12-year or 1 million km lifespan and retains 91% capacity after 200,000km; aimed at fleets and leasing operators.
  • Super-Fast Charging: 683km WLTP range with 12C charging that adds 478km in 10 min; 10-year or 240,000km warranty.
• Both use a cell-to-body structure for higher energy integration and CATL’s NP 3.0 safety system, maintaining high voltage for over an hour in a thermal event.
• First LFP battery to feature the NP 3.0 at system level.
• The European versions of the battery charge slightly slower than China’s due to WLTP and grid limits but delivers similar range gains.

Xiaomi recalls 117,000 SU7 EVs after fatal crash triggers safety probe

• Xiaomi is recalling 116,877 SU7 sedans built between Feb 2024 and Aug 2025 after an investigation into a fatal crash six months ago raised concerns over its driver-assistance system.
• China’s market regulator said the L2 system “had insufficient recognition capability and may not adequately detect and warn drivers in certain scenarios.”
• The issue will be fixed through an over-the-air software update, not a physical recall, but affected drivers have been requested not to drive their vehicles until the update.
• Most driver-assist systems in China are classified as L2 or L2+, requiring drivers to keep hands on the wheel.

Company news

Celsius Resources (CLA LN) 0.33p, Mkt Cap £17m – Drilling results from the MCB project, Philippines

• Celsius Resources reports results from its current geotechnical and hydrogeological drilling at its Maalinao-Caigutan-Biyog (MCB)Copper-Gold Project located on Luzon approximately 320km north of Manila.
• The drilling forms part of the work to update the feasibility study, which is reported to be >60% complete and the company confirms that when it has all the assays from the drilling it plans “to release an updated Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) followed by a JORC Ore Reserve Statement”.
• The resource and reserve reports and “the updated JORC Feasibility Study report” are expected to be announced “by December this year”.
• The current mineral resource estimate for the MCB project is “338 million tonnes @ 0.47% copper and 0.12 g/t gold … of which 249 million tonnes @ 0.44% copper and 0.11 g/t gold is classified as Indicated, 42 million tonnes @ 0.52% copper and 0.11 g/t gold is classified as Inferred, and 47 million tonnes @ 0.59% copper and 0.19 g/t gold is classified as Measured”.
• A 2021 study on the project described an initial investment of US$253m delivering a post-tax NPV_8% of US$464m and an IRR of 31%. The study was based on assumed copper price of US$4:00/lb (~US$8,800/t – currently ~US$10,500/t) and a gold price of US$1,695/oz (currently ~US$3,800/oz).
• Today’s announcement highlights that the “recently completed drill hole returned results that were higher than anticipated when compared to the resource model, confirming the presence of consistent high-grade copper mineralisation” including an 86m wide intersection at an average grade of 0.56% copper and 0.06g/t gold from a depth of 16m in hole MCB- UG-001.
• The mineralised intersection in hole MCB- UG-001 includes a higher grade interval of 16m, from 16m downhole at an average grade of 1.26% copper and 0.06g/t gold.
• Celsius Resources’ Technical Director, Peter Hume, said that “This recent drill hole was completed to provide additional mine design and geo-technical data. With these new higher-grade intercepts, the Board have further confidence that the final mine plan, will deliver the best value for the MCB Project, our investors, shareholders and the community”.

Conclusion: Celsius Resources’ latest drilling at the MCB project is expected to contribute to a revised MRE and updated Feasibility Study by December 2025.

Critical Metals (CRML US) US$8, Mkt Cap $827m – US government considers an equity stake

• The stock is up ~74% on Nasdaq (pre market) as the US government is reported to be interested in taking a stake in the Company.
• Preliminary discussions include a potential conversion of the $50m government grant secured in June into stock, according to Reuters sources.
• If accepted, that would give Washington a ~8% stake in the Company.
• Any equity investment would be separate rom the $120m loan announced by the US Export-Import Bank.
• The news followed the announcement that Critical Metals amended agreement to increase its stake in the Tanbreez REE Project in Greenland.
• Critical Metals can increase its interest to 92.5% in the project, up from 42% upon issuance of 14.5m shares to the owner of the license area (Rimbal, a company controlled by geologist and project founder Gregory Barnes).
• The Project is located in southern Greenland near the town of Qaqortoq.
• The Company estimates that the project hosts 4.7bn tonnes in the Kakortokite rock unit including REE bearing eudalyte component of 940mt.
• 2016 MRE 56mt at 0.38% TREO, 1.39% ZrO2 and 0.14% Nb2O5.
• FS in progress and was 70% complete as of beginning of September.
• Completion expected 4Q25.
• Critical Metals also holds a 100% interest in Wolfsberg Lithium Project, Austria.
• The Project hosts 13mt at 1.0% Li2O for 0.3mt LCE in total resource and 12mt at 0.6% Li2O for 0.2mt LCE in reserves.

DPM Metals (DPM CN) C$32, Mkt Cap C$7.1bn – Ecuador terminates Loma Larga Gold Project environmental license

• Ecuador revoked the environmental license of Loma Larga Gold Project.
• The announcement comes a suspension of the license in late September.
• Authorities intervened following massive protests against the project carried in Cuenca last month,
• Protesters argued that the operation will affect the water recharge zone that supplies water to Cuenca, the capital of Azuay province.
• Opponents called on Environmental Minister to revoke the environmental permit granted to the Company in June.
• The Company acquired the asset in 2021.
• Updated FS released 30 September included:
  • Underground mining operation running at 1.2mtpa for 11y LOM.
  • 173kozpa at US$873 AISC.
  • Development capex US$593m
  • After tax NPV5 and IRR US$488 and 18% ($1,900/oz gold price).
• Reserves at 12.6mt at 4.7g/t gold and 0.29% copper for 1.9moz.
• Resources at 30.3t at 3.4g/t and 0.20% copper for 3.3moz.
• Dundee planned to come the project into construction by late 2026/early 2027.

Gemfields Group (GEM LN) 6p, Mkt Cap £106m – Auction of rubies from the Montepuez mine

• Gemfields reports that it has realised US$11m from its latest auction of rubies from its 75%-owned Montepuez mine in Mozambique.
• The auction, which was held between 29^th September to 3^rd October “via online bidding after viewings in Bangkok, Thailand”, saw 62% of the 297,449 carats of rubies offered sold at an average price of US$59.43/carat.
• Twenty-six of the 33 lots offered for sale were sold and. Managing Director, Adrian Banks, explained that the unsold material represent “the smallest size ranges within the same lower-quality grade, and … [were] …offered for the first time at this auction”.
• Mr. Banks, clarified that “This mini-auction primarily featured medium and commercial grades of secondary material sourced from a recently developed mining area in the ‘Maninge Nice’ domain and where our processing activities have been concentrated in recent months”.
• Today’s announcement confirms that “Gemfields has made the decision to defer the usual November/December ruby auction to January/February 2026. This is on account of the previously advised delay in the final commissioning of MRM’s second processing plant at MRM, now exacerbated by illegal miner action”.
• The company explains that “final commissioning is presently still expected in October 2025 … [but that] … the new plant’s operation has been materially impacted during the last week by illegal miners, who presently number between 250 and 400 per day, sabotaging the plant supply infrastructure”.
• Illegally mined rubies from the area are having “a detrimental impact on market prices and on Mozambique’s tax receipts from its ruby resources”.

Conclusion: Illegal mining close to the company’s Montepuez mine in Mozambique is disrupting the ruby market as Gemfields decides to defer the November/December auction until January/February.

Great Western Mining* (GWMO LN) 1.43p, Mkt Cap £2.5m – Drilling underway at West Huntoon

1. Great Western Mining reports that its 1,800m reverse-circulation drilling programme is underway, ahead of schedule, at the West Huntoon project in Nevada.
2. The first hole of the campaign was “nearing target depth” on Friday 3rd October
3. The company confirms that “Drilling is expected to continue through October, with assay results to follow”.
4. Chairman, Brian Hall, described the start of the drilling, which includes both the West Huntoon and Rhyolite Dome projects as “the beginning of an exciting campaign to unlock the copper and precious metals potential of our claims”.

SP Angel act as Broker to Great Western Mining, an SP Angel Analyst has visited Great Western’s Nevada claim blocks.

Jubilee Metals Group (JLP LN) 3.1p, Mkt cap £104m – Progress report on sale of South African businesses and Zambian developments

• Jubilee Metals reports that, following shareholder approval in August, it has now received the initial US$15m tranche of proceeds from the sale of its South African chrome and PGM operations.
• “Following completion of the sale, which is expected by the end of CY2025, the Company will be focused solely on its Zambian copper projects whilst retaining its investment in the Tjate platinum project in South Africa”.
• In Zambia, the business plan focusses on three businesses:
  • The Roan concentrator; and
  • The Sable Refinery &
  • The Large Waste Project.
• The Roan copper concentrator is currently producing “predominantly from purchased run-of-mine (ROM) material, grading at an average of approximately 1.65% copper (Cu) for the quarter, slightly above the targeted 1.6% Cu”.
• The company confirms that “Production for Q1 FY2026 at Roan alone is in-line with guidance reaching 915 tonnes of copper in concentrate … [and that production is] … targeted to be maintained within a similar range to current production levels for the next quarter”.
• At the Sable copper refinery, expansion to “accommodate increased production from the nearby Munkoyo mining operation, Project G mine, and other near-surface opportunities in the area … [is] … targeted for completion in Q3 FY2026”.
• An additional ~US$5.5m is required to complete the expansion project “which the Company will seek to fund from existing resources and from the proceeds of the sale of the South African assets”.
• Today’s announcement explains that “Copper grades delivered to Sable have started to improve following the initial open pit development with grades currently exceeding 2% copper”.
• Jubilee Metals also confirms that it has “has increased its foothold in the region surrounding Munkoyo by securing additional exploration permits”.
• The ‘Large Waste Project’ which targets the reprocessing of waste from previous mining “is undergoing a further upgrade to its resource definition to improve the targeted ore reclamation mine design as well as the initial ore reclamation zone of the vast rock dump area”.
• Design work for the reclamation of ~10mt of material is expected to be completed “by the end of Q3 FY2026” and Jubilee Metals confirms that it has already reclaimed and assayed “nearly 12 thousand truck loads … which significantly enhances the information available on the material”.
• CEO, Leon Coetzer, explained that Jubilee Metals’ “Three-Pillar Strategy offers flexibility to our operations and supports a more robust business approach to withstand the in-Country risks while offering exciting growth opportunities”.

Conclusion: Initial funds from the sale of the S African chrome and PGM businesses have been received as Jubilee Metals concentrates on its Zambian copper businesses.

Predictive Discovery (PDI AU) 0A$0.5, Mkt Cap A$1.3bn – Merger with Robex Resources

Robex Resources (RBX AU) A$4.3, Mkt Cap A$0.9bn

• Predictive Discovery and Robex Resources agree a merger to create next mid-tier gold producer in Guinea.
• Under the agreement, RBX shareholders will receive 8.667 PDI shares for each Robex share.
• Following completion, PDI and RBX shareholders will hold 51% and 49% interest, respectively.
• The implied market cap of the combined company estimated at A$2.4bn.
• The combined Company expected to have:
  • +400kozpa gold production by 2029;
  • 9.5moz resource;
  • 4.5moz reserves.
• Andrew Pardey (PDI CEO) to act as Non Executive Chairman, Matthew Wilcox (RBX CEO) to act as CEO of merged Company.
• Transaction planned to close December 2025 or early 2026.
• RBX is nearing Kiniero Gold Project construction completion with first gold due 4Q25.
• Kiniero targets ~140kozpa over 9y at US$1,066/oz AISC.
• PDI owns a FS stage Bankan Gold Project with first production guided for 2028.
• Bankan targets ~250kozpa over 12y LOM at US$1,057/oz AISC; US$463m development capex.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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