SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Monday 4th August 2025

Gold jumps on weak US labour data as Trump sacks data head

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Catalyst Metals (CYL AU) – Boosting resource at Trident to support 200kozpa target

Cobra Resources (COBR LN) – Analysis of historic drilling data shows potential for additional rare-earth mineralisation in South Australia

Lake Resources (LKE AU) – Updated Kachi FS

Metals Exploration (MTL LN) – Shipping of process plant to La India with installation expected to start in late October

Minerals 260 (MI6 AU) – Drilling results and management additions

Premier African Minerals (PREM LN) – Next phase of plant testing at the Zulu lithium project, Zimbabwe

WA1 Resources (WA1 AU) – Successful production of niobium oxide from Luni

Gold ($3,355/oz) jumps on weak US labour data as Trump sacks data head

• Gold jumped over 2% on Friday after a surprise NFP miss and series of major revisions to previous months’ numbers
• The move halted a slowdown in the metal, which had fallen below $3,300/oz.
• Traders ramped up their bets on Fed rate cuts after the data release, with US Treasury yields slumping across the curve.
• Trump’s move to sack the BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer has further fuelled concerns over the White House’s approach to America’s institutions.

US dollar to Yo-Yo as manufacturers work through inventory before buying new stock in

• US manufacturers are waiting to see if Trump will TACO again with China.
• Switzerland’s 39% tariff caught the Swiss by surprise, but Swiss watches are expensive anyway, so will anyone really notice?
• Destocking of imported inventory should naturally weaken the US for some time
• US buyers will then decide where they are buying new stock from according to Trump’s Tariffs, thereby selling dollars to buy-in new stock.
• The US has lowered the Tariff rate on Chinese imports to 30% in May with a second extension now granted.
• Trump also “imposed a blanket 40% tariff on goods “transhipped” from China to the US via third countries” last week causing Chinese manufacturers to rethink their offshoring strategy.
• “The China plus one strategy is going to come under tremendous stress,” said Louise Loo, Asia economist at Oxford Economics. Some companies will seek new manufacturing bases further afield, but many would return to China, she added. “The upfront cost to move to new markets is going to be exorbitantly high.”
• Chinese manufacturers are reconsidering investment in offshore factories according to the FT today as new restrictions on transhipment force a sweeping rethink of supply chains.
• Last week’s list of Trump Tariffs give greater clarity for the time being.

H1 2025 EV sales news

• China: NEV sales totalled 5.468m in H1 2025, growing by 33.3% yoy, with a market share 50.2%.
• EU: 869,271 new battery EVs were registered in the EU in H1 2025, 15.6% market share, up from a 12.5% share in H1 2024. (European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association)
• UK: BEV sales reached 224,841, up 34.6% yoy, with a market share of 21.6%, falling short of the mandated 28%
• China remains the global leader in EV adoption, but the European market is the second-largest EV market globally.

Codelco – Six fatalities in seismic incident at El Teniente

Chilean copper miner, Codelco, has confirmed the death of a further 5 workers at the Andesita section of its underground El Teniente copper mine, bringing the overall toll to six, following a magnitude 4.2 seismic incident on Thursday.

IGTV – The Future of Mining: Gold, Copper, Rare Earths & M&A:  https://youtu.be/-G59iOq6x2c?si=z4fVkyHNP9isbOTB

Economics

US – President Trump fires the head of Bureau of Labor Statistics after a downward revision to employment numbers on Friday.

• President said the agency “RIGGED” jobs numbers “to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad”.
• Friday report showed that the economy added 73k jobs in July, down on 109k forecasts.
• But it was the downward revision to previous months that triggered criticisms with May and June numbers adjusted by 250k lower.
• That marked the largest downward revision (apart from the Covid-era) since 1979.
• Jobless rate climbed slightly to 4.2% (+0.1pp).
• Inflation in wages also picked to 3.9% (+0.1pp on revised 3..8% from 3.7%), and slightly ahead of 3.8% forecast.

Odds of a rate cut as early as September shot up following a soft jobs report.

• Markets are now almost fully pricing in a cut next month for a total of just over two before year end, nearly double what the odds were before the report.
• Equity markets close down with S&P 500 and Nasdaq off 1.6% and 2.2% on Friday.
• Futures are trading higher this morning, up 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively.
• 10y Treasury yields dropped nearly 20bp on Friday hitting 4.2%.

Trump to name a new Fed governor following an exit of Adriana Kugler announced last week.

• That is likely to be the chance for Trump to appoint a more dovish member to the Board.

The sentiment was also weakened by the news that President Trump ordered two nuclear submarines “in the appropriate regions” following “highly provocative” comments by former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.

• “Based on the highly provocative statements of the former president of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, who is now the deputy chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, I have ordered two nuclear submarines to be positioned in the appropriate regions.”
• Commentators see the move as a further pressure on President Putin to agree a ceasefire in Ukraine.

China – Beijing issues flood alerts as torrential rains risk landslides and flash flooding

• Forecasts are for up to 200mm of rain within six hours today (annual rainfall is tupically 600mm)
• Flooding across many cities in Northern China may occupy China’s leadership for the time being. High hydropower dam water levels will increase power supply.

Trade tariff negotiations are ongoing with accelerated stocking helping Q2 GDP to 5.2% vs 4.8% in Q1

• Given the interconnected nature of Chinese support for Russia and Iran we would not be surprised to see negotiations roll on for a while.
• China has managed to absorb and export sell much of its manufactured goods through Tariff uncertainty but domestic incentives stimulating demand are expensive and non-US export markets may be reacting saturation.
• The CCP will have to move fast to stimulate demand through wage growth via SME and state-enterprise margin growth.
• Till then demand stimulus will need to be funded through more local and national borrowing.

Ukraine/Russia – President Trump promised a series of new sanctions should the unconditional ceasefire not reached by 08 Augst.

• A deadly attack claimed more than 30 lives on Thursday last week in Kyiv.
• Russia launched more than 300 drones and eight cruise missiles making it one of the deadliest since the invasion in February 2022.
• Ukraine is running a campaign of targeting critical infrastructure in Russia hitting an oil depot over the weekend.

Currencies

US$1.1558/eur vs 1.1420/eur previous. Yen 147.85/$ vs 150.56/$.SAr 17.994/$ vs 18.230/$. $1.327/gbp vs $1.320/gbp. 0.648/aud vs 0.643/aud. CNY 7.177/$ vs 7.210/$.

Dollar Index 99.85 vs 98.98 previous.

Precious metals:         

Gold US$3,356/oz vs US$3,287/oz previous

Gold ETFs 91.7moz vs 91.7moz previous

Platinum US$1,320/oz vs US$1,269/oz previous

Palladium US$1,210/oz vs US$1,193/oz previous

Silver US$37.2/oz vs US$36.4/oz previous

Rhodium US$6,900/oz vs US$7,000/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$9,670/t vs US$9,622/t previous

Aluminium US$2,576/t vs US$2,570/t previous

Nickel US$14,990/t vs US$14,900/t previous

Zinc US$2,731/t vs US$2,739/t previous

Lead US$1,970/t vs US$1,964/t previous

Tin US$33,400/t vs US$32,895/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$69.7/bbl vs US$71.6/bbl previous

Oil prices are trading lower with Brent down 1.3% at ~$69/bbl on the news of a production rate hike by OPEC+.

• The coalition agreed to raise output by 547kbblpd completing the reversal of a supply cutback made in 2023 (one year ahead of schedule).
• OPEC+ accelerating the reversal in a bid to reclaim the market share.
• There is further 1.66mmbbl of capacity that was halted two years ago and is currently remaining offline until late 2026.
• OPEC+ said there is currently no decision regarding those capacities and are contingent on oil market conditions.

Natural Gas €33.7/MWh vs €35.0/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $71.4/lb vs $71.5/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (cfr Dalian) US$109.9/t vs US$109.0/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$474.2/t vs US$471.4/t

HCC FOB Australia US$187.5/t vs US$187.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$117.0/t vs US$117.5/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$33,335/t vs US$33,335/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$73,990/t vs US$73,427/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$9,559/t vs US$9,503/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$775/t vs US$815/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,005/t vs US$1,005/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$443/mtu vs US$443/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$410/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$4.9/lb vs US$4.9/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.5/kg vs US$23.7/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$275/t vs US$274/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,094/t vs US$1,091/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$362.5/t vs US$362.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$3,025.0/kg vs US$3,025.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

EV & battery news

Trump administration announces 93.5% tariff on Chinese graphite

• The Commerce Department announced a 93.5% tariff on Chinese graphite last week, accusing the country of “dumping” the raw material in the US below the market price.
• Raw graphite is relatively cheap, costing less than $2 per pound and Chinese imports to the United States more than doubled over two years, hitting $347m 2023, according to the most recent Commerce Department data available.
• The US graphite industry does not currently produce enough graphite to fill demand, therefore US EV battery makers will just have to pay a higher price for the graphite it needs from China.
• Domestic producers also haven’t been making graphite of the purity needed to build EV batteries, according to testimony from Tesla during the investigation into the tariffs.

CATL signs deal to produce 100,000 battery-swappable cars to Car Inc. fleet

• Under a strategic agreement with CMB Leasing, CATL and Car Inc. will launch a pilot programme this year to progressively deploy more than 100,000 battery-swappable vehicles in its fleet.
• The vehicles will use CATL’s Choco-SEB system with standardised #20 and #25 swap blocks, delivering 400–600 km of range.
• CATL will also build a swap network using Car Inc’s 2,000 outlets and parking assets and will prioritise using photovoltaic power and grid-balancing services.
• CATL still has plans to expand its own network of swap stations, targeting 1,000 stations nationwide by year-end, up from around 400 today.

Company news

Catalyst Metals (CYL AU) A$5.5, Mkt Cap A$1.4bn – Boosting resource at Trident to support 200kozpa target

• Australian gold producer Catalyst provides a resource estimate for its Trident project
• Trident MRE:
  • 4.7mt at 5.3g/t Au for 795koz
  • Indicated portion 2.6mt at 6.4g/t Au for 527koz
  • Inferred: 2.1mt at 3.9g/t Au for 268koz
• Aiming to boost reserves from the current 188koz at 4.5g/t Au.
• Catalyst is aiming to boost reserves at the wider Plutonic belt to 2moz from 1moz.
• First ore from the Trident open pit is due in the coming months.
• Resource remains open with recent intercepts including 11m at 3.7g/t sitting 250m outside of the Resource envelope.

Cobra Resources (COBR LN) 2.6p, Mkt cap £21m – Analysis of historic drilling data shows potential for additional rare-earth mineralisation in South Australia

• Cobra Resources reports that analysis of historical material held in the South Australian Drill Core Reference Library has shown that a recently acquired 750km² exploration tenement may include palaeochannel-hosted ionic rare-earth mineralisation similar to that identified at the Company’s Boland project located 10-20km to the northeast.
• The historic uranium exploration data the shows that the Yaninee palaeochannel shows “characteristics reflective of Boland on the Narlaby Palaeochannel” which includes the Boland Project.
• “Initial results … [from testing of 395 samples derived from 11 holes] … define two large higher-grade zones exceeding 80 km² that flank the main incised channel, reflecting similar depositional geology to the Boland Prospect”.
• Today’s announcement explains that rare-earth elements “are absorbed to fine organic clays that occur within permeable palaeochannel sands of the Pidinga Formation, where ongoing metallurgical studies have demonstrated that they can be recovered at weak acidities” using in-situ recovery (ISR) techniques.
• Managing Director, Rupert Verco, said that these “initial results demonstrate that the Yaninee Palaeochannel has all the ingredients required for our ISR-amenable rare earth mineralisation”.
• He said that “Now that confirmation of a mineralised system has been established, we will use the additional pending samples to prioritise the areas with highest prospectivity to proceed to drill targeting, where we expect to deliver higher grade intersections through more appropriate drilling and sampling methods, contributing further scale to the overall project”.
• ISR methods potentially offer relatively low impact and low capital intensity recovery methods for rare-earths mineralisation.

Conclusion: Analysis of historical samples offers the potential for a wider occurrence of palaeochannel hosted ionic rare-earth mineralisation in South Australia.

Lake Resources (LKE AU) A$0.04, Mkt Cap A$76m – Updated Kachi FS

• The Company released an updated FS on the Kachi DLE Project in Argentina.
• Updated Phase One FS is for 25ktpa LCE using Lilac Solutions DLE technology.
• Capex US$1.2bn, a US$220m improvement on the original FS.
• OPEX US$5,895/LCE (-3%).
• NPV10 AT and IRR AT at US$1.0bn and 19.7% using average LOM price of US$20,500/LCE (US$1.6bn and 20.9% at $33,000/LCE before).
• Updated mineral reserves estimated at 0.6mt LCE at 266mg/L (vs 0.6mt at 248mg/L FS 2023).
• Updated economics account for:
  • Significantly improved brine grade compared with the Original DFS;
  • Implementation of Lilac Solutions’ Generation 4 Ion Exchange technology improvements and accompanying improved lithium recovery rates;
  • Refreshed high-quality resource and reserve data;
  • Efficiencies in well development, construction, and execution methodology.
• Next steps include:
  • Advance EIA approval process, expected to be completed this year;
  • Continue strategic review process including a potential sale of all or part of Lake’s interest in the project;
  • Focus on costs and maintaining appropriate levels of liquidity.

Metals Exploration (MTL LN) 13.65p, Mkt Cap £389m – Shipping of process plant to La India with installation expected to start in late October

• Metals Exploration confirms that the process plant purchased from the Rock Creek mine in Alaska in March is now en-route to the La India project in Nicaragua.
• The plant, which was acquired for a total US$9.7m includes “crushers, conveyors, grinding ball mill, Sepro Falcon gravity circuit, carbon in leach (CIL) circuit, elution and smelting equipment and laboratory”.
• Today’s announcement confirms that the “La India process flowsheet has been designed such that the Rock Creek Plant will be able to process up to 1.4 million tonnes (“Mt”) per annum, with additional built-in potential capacity to be upgraded to 1.8Mt per annum”.
• CEO, Darren Bowden, explained that the “ahead-of-schedule shipment of the Rock Creek Plant marks another important milestone in our fast-track development of the La India project”.
• The plant was shipped “almost one month ahead of the original purchase completion timetable, and is expected to dock in Nicaragua in mid-August 2025 … [and after road transport to site] … commencement of plant erection activities now scheduled for late October 2025”.
• We comment that, with its operational experience, including at the operating Runruno mine in the Philippines, Metals Exploration is well placed to manage the installation and commissioning of the plant from Rock Creek generating significant capital cost savings compared to the US$105.5m capital expenditure disclosed in the 2022 Feasibility Study of the La India project’s previous owner.
• We also suspect that as well as delivering meaningful capital cost savings, the use of the plant from Rock Creek may have shortened the delivery time expected compared to what might be expected for a new plant from a manufacturer.

Conclusion: Metals Exploration confirms that the processing plant, purchased from a mine in Alaska, is in transit to Nicaragua for installation at the La India mine development in Nicaragua.

Minerals 260 (MI6 AU) A$0.12, Mkt Cap A$227m – Drilling results and management additions

• Minerals260, who recently acquired the Bullabulling Gold Project from Zijin, report further drilling results.
• Company conducted extensional drilling at the 930koz at 1.1g/t Au Phoenix deposit
  • BBDD0009: 6m at 2.7g/t Au from 36m
  • BBRC0076: 7m at 2.6g/t Au from 29m
  • BBRC0097: 4m at 7.9g/t Au from 113m
  • BBRC0099: 3m at 13.3g/t Au from 293m (inc. 1m at 39g/t Au from 293m)
  • BBRC0135: 8m at 2.2g/t Au from 261m
• Extensional drilling at Bacchus (890koz at 1.3g/t Au) returned:
  • BBRC0057: 15m at 3.4g/t AU from 124m
  • BBDD000: 13m at 1.6g/t Au from 267m
• Extensional drilling at the Gibraltar prospect returned
  • BBRC0124: 7m at 2.4g/t Au from 34m
• Management notes continued confirmation of mineralisation of depth and the potential to extend Phoenix and Bacchus.
• Additional drilling planned at Gibraltar prospect which sits outside the 2.3moz MRE.
• Management additions:
  • Jack Dermody as COO, coming from BHP’s Prominent Hill mine in South Australia and previously working at OZ Minerals and Newmont’s Cadia
  • Russell Brooks as CDO, coming from BHP and Oz Minerals

Premier African Minerals (PREM LN) 0.03p, Mkt Cap £22m – Next phase of plant testing at the Zulu lithium project, Zimbabwe

• Premier African Minerals reports that the second phase of pilot-plant testing at its Zulu lithium plant in Zimbabwe is to start today.
• The testing, which will include the presence of representatives of all the OEMs, aims to optimise “the plant with guidance from the relevant OEM’s … [to] … reach a sustained steady-state of operation … [while meeting] … the required spodumene concentrate specifications”.
• CEO, George Roach, explained that “At present the OEM and Zulu personnel are conducting inspections, normal maintenance, and a minor change to flow control in the spodumene float section in advance of this second test run”.
• Expressing the expectation that this next phase of testing will “see another major step forward in the optimisation process” Mr. Roach said that “Some operating parameter changes and the possible reintroduction of an additional reagent successfully used in 2024, to the extent necessary, round out the preparations” for the tests.

Conclusion: A new phase of testing is due to start today at the Zulu lithium plant aiming to resolve some of the continuing operational issues.

WA1 Resources (WA1 AU) A$16.4, Mkt Cap A$1.1bn – Successful production of niobium oxide from Luni

• WA1, developer of the Luni niobium project in Western Australia, reports testwork results.
• Testwork has produced a niobium oxide sample of 96.8% Nb₂O₅.
• Company notes that the feed concentrate had no prior refining.
• Niobium oxide is used as a feedstock in vacuum grade niobium alloys, niobium metal for super alloys and an input to battery materials.
• Flowsheet:
  • Concentrate produced via crushing, grinding and desliming followed by phosphate flotation and niobium flotation
  • Concentrate fed into hydrometallurgical circuit
  • Refining includes HF leaching, solvent extraction and finally calcination
• A 0.5kg niobium concentrate sample was used for the sample input.
• Recoveries reported at 91% from the unrefined concentrate.
• Focus now on improving recoveries via optimising leach recovery.
• Niobium Oxide Market:
  • Specifications usually require >75% Nb2O5
  • 18ktpa demand globally:
    • 69% VG alloys
    • 9% niobium metal
    • 14% battery applications
    • 8% optical applications
  • Demand for ferroniobium (88% of global niobium demand) grew by 5,000t in 2025.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476 

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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