SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Monday 23rd June 2025

Gold holds steady as traders consider potential for Middle East escalation

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

African Gold (A1G AU) – Blaffo Guetto Resource Upgrade

Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) – BUY, TP 308p – Senior management appointments

Caledonia Mining (CMCL LN) – Recent positive drilling results from the Blanket mine, Zimbabwe

Cobra Resources (COBR LN) – Boland rare-earths project, South Australia progresses towards economic scoping study later this year

Kavango Resources* (KAV LN) – Appointment of former Barrick Mining Corp, mine manager as General Manager for mining at Hillside, near Bulawayo, Zimbabwe

Pensana (PRE LN) – MOU wit ReElement Technologies

Power Metal Resources* (POW LN) –Exploration update from Oman copper project

Westgold (WGX AU) – Fletcher Resource boosts Beta Hunt tonnage

Gold ($3,366/oz) holds steady as traders consider potential for Middle East escalation

Gold prices have held flat despite an eventful weekend in the Middle East, which saw the USA strike Iranian nuclear facilities.

• Iran has promised retribution, although markets don’t seem to be paying much attention to their warnings.
• Oil prices are flat from Friday and gold has failed to catch a bid, suggesting the market is looking for de-escalation.
• Other haven assets, predominantly US treasuries, are weaker this morning.
• However, the dollar has climbed against a basket of currencies, likely also weighing on gold prices.

Risk off trade dominates as world awaits Iranian retribution to US bombing of nuclear sites

• While ‘Operation Midnight Hammer’ has damaged three sites it does not appear to have destroyed Iranian nuclear sites and there has been no spike in off-site radioactive levels.
• https://taskandpurpose.com/news/operation-midnight-hammer-assessment-iran/
• The Iranians had time to move enriched uranium material offsite with much movement tracked ahead of the bombing.
• Israel’s destruction of Iran’s air defence systems allowed Trump the opportunity to risk this mission.
• Eg, Trump was able to lead a minimal risk, ‘Mission Impossible’ style precision guided bombing raid to display US military might. Great for American TV!
• There were no US deaths and hopefully few Iranian casualties. Opportunities to display US air prowess like this don’t present themselves that often.
• Next time, the Russians and Chinese may have air defence systems installed for a bit of target practice.
• Questions:

• • Will The Ayatollah Ali Khamenei back down on the nuclear program – No!
  • Iranian parliament voted to close the Strait of Hormuz – can they enforce this by mining the channel without airpower – the oil prices says no!
  • What will the Iranian Mullahs advise to their clergy?
  • Will the Ayatollah instruct retribution – yes he has, but his reputation and power appears severely eroded.
  • A hacker group claims to have taken down Bank Sepah’s ability to pay the IRGC ‘Islamic Revolutionary Guards’ causing discontent within their ranks.

• Israel is quietly eroding Republican guard capacity. This may empower those who wish for regime change.

Conclusion:  Iran, the US and Israel are formidable powers. Iran is smart enough to develop strategies to hit back at US and Israeli.

Hostage diplomacy, threats on a US presidential assassination and the killing of US civilians could escalate military action in the region. This is greater danger!

From a metals perspective, long-only funds remain cautious awaiting further news to confirm the direction of global economic growth.

In the meantime, physical buying of copper continues.

Cobalt – DRC extends cobalt export ban to rein in oversupply

• The DRC has extended their temporary ban on cobalt exports for an additional three months, Bloomberg reports.
• The Government blocked shipments in February, following a major ramp up in output from Chinese producer CMOC, who operate the Tenke Fungurume mine.
• Cobalt prices hit 21-year lows in February, but have since rallied on the export ban.
• Bloomberg reports the DRC is exploring potential export quotas, partly to boost domestic processing.
• We doubt the ban will be particularly effective as the the Chinese will continue to mine, process and stockpile cobalt.
• The M25 rebels and other warlords will also continue to mine and export material and will disregard any government ban.
• Battery manufacturers continue to reduce the use of cobalt in Li-ion batteries through increasing manufacture of LFP and new LMR ‘Lithium-manganese-rich’ prismatic cells (2028).
• Even the NCM manufacturers which offer higher energy-density cells are moving to lower proportions of cobalt such as NCM811 relative to the power offered.
• Battery chemistries are evolving fast and we strongly suspect this evolution will not favour significant growth in demand for cobalt in the coming decades.

Currencies

US$1.1498/eur vs 1.1467/eur previous. Yen 147.20/$ vs 145.33/$. SAr 18.048/$ vs 18.117/$. $1.344/gbp vs $1.341/gbp. 0.643/aud vs         0.647/aud. CNY 7.185/$ vs 7.190/$.

Dollar Index 99.027 vs 99.023

Economics

US – The US hit three main nuclear sites using “bunker-buster” bombs over the weekend.

• The US threatened more attacks if Iran does not make peace.
• Parliament of Iran is reported to have voted to close down the Strait of Hormuz, although, the final decision remains with the Supreme National Security Council.
• The Strait accounts for ~20% of global oil demand.
• Brent hit the highest level in five months jumping to over $80/bbl level.
• Response from Iran has been muted so far with oil prices pulling back from recent highs and US equity index futures down only marginally (S&P -0.2%, Nasdaq -0.3%).
• The US called on China to convince Iran from closing the Strait down.

TSMC and Nvidia are trading lower this morning after the WSJ said a US Commerce department official told top chip companies they want to revoke waivers they used to ship products in China.

Precious metals:

Gold US$3,355/oz vs US$3,354/oz previous

Gold ETFs 89.9moz vs 89.4moz previous

Platinum US$1,271/oz vs US$1,314/oz previous

Palladium US$1,062/oz vs US$1,047/oz previous

Silver US$36.1/oz vs US$36.3/oz previous

Rhodium US$5,475/oz vs US$5,475/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$9,613/t vs  US$9,604/t previous

Aluminium US$2,554/t vs US$2,530/t previous

Nickel US$14,820/t vs US$15,045/t previous

Zinc US$2,647/t vs US$2,617/t previous

Lead US$2,002/t vs US$1,988/t previous

Tin US$32,540/t vs US$32,075/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$77.5/bbl vs US$77.6/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices have pared earlier gains this morning as the market appeared to bet against a significant disruption to crude oil flows from anticipated Iranian retaliation against the US airstrikes over the weekend.
• The US Baker Hughes rig count was down 1 to 554 units last week (-34 or 6% y/y), with oil rigs down 1 to 438 units (-47 y/y) and gas rigs down 2 to 111 units (+13 y/y), with miscellaneous up 2 rigs to 5 units (flat y/y).

Natural Gas €41.6/MWh vs €40.0/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $77.0/lb vs $75.0/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$94.7/t vs US$94.4/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$459.0/t vs US$460.1/t

HCC FOB Australia US$179.0/t vs US$178.5/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$112.3/t vs US$111.8/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$33,335/t vs US$33,335/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$61,798/t vs US$61,054/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$8,031/t vs US$8,136/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$610/t vs US$610/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$995/t vs US$995/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$418/mtu vs US$418/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$420/t vs US$420/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.0/lb vs US$5.0/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.4/kg vs US$24.4/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$289/t vs US$289/t

Global Rutile Spot Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,687/t vs US$1,687/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$362.5/t vs US$362.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$2,925.0/kg vs US$2,895.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg 

Company News

 African Gold (A1G AU) A$0.18, Mkt cap A$84m –Blaffo Guetto Resource Upgrade

• African Gold, who are exploring the Didievi Project in Cote D’Ivoire, report a resource upgrade from Blaffo Guetto.
• Company reports:

• • 12.4mt at 2.5g/t Au for 989koz Au (0.8g/t COG)

• The previous Blaffo Guetto MRE stood at:

• • 4.93mt at 2.9g/t Au for 452koz (1g/t COG)

• Company believes the mineralisation remains ‘open in all directions, both at depth and along strike.’
• Company notes that the updated MRE ‘does not include any recent regional discoveries across the broader Didievi Project.’
• Drilling programme set to ramp up in Julym with focus on progressing classification of regional targets.
• African Gold recently received a strategic placement from Montage Gold*, who took a 19.9% stake in the Company.
• Montage holds the Kone project in Cote D’Ivoire.
• African Gold management states they believe they are ‘unlocking what will ultimately prove to be a multi-million-ounce gold system.’

*An SP Angel analyst holds shares in Montage Gold

Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) 166p, Mkt Cap £189m – Senior management appointments

BUY – 308p

• The Company expands its senior management team with three appointments.
• Dominic O’Hara is joining as Director of Mining.
• Dominic held senior roles with Glencore and AngloGold Ashanti and has previously worked in open pit and underground copper and gold operations for over 15 years across three continents.
• Sean Lapham joins as Geology Director.
• Sean with 13 years of experience in the mining industry held senior positions within SLR, Mining Plus, Lagata Private Equity and Glencore Copper.
• He is a Competent Person for copper, gold, cobalt and tin and will oversee exploration and mining geology operations.
• Sergey Reznik is joining as new Senior Mining Engineer (Mine Planning).
• Sergey has over 15 years of experience in open pit and underground mining operations in North America, Europe, Central Asia and the Middle East.
• He hill support active operations and expanding project pipeline.
• Additionally, the Company is appointing Afgan Imamli and Fuad Sulkhayev as Mine Managers, who will be responsible for Demirli and Gedabek open pit mines.

Conclusion: The Company is expanding senior management team to support its active growth pipeline with a particular focus on copper and gold.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker for Anglo Asian Mining

Caledonia Mining (CMCL LN) 1,415p, Mkt Cap £264m – Recent positive drilling results from the Blanket mine, Zimbabwe

• Caledonia Mining reports that recent infill and resource expansion drilling at its Blanket gold mine in Zimbabwe has intersected a potential new orebody and has also demonstrated depth continuity of the existing Blanket and Eroica orebodies at “better than expected” grades and widths.
• Reporting results from almost 7,000m of drilling completed between January and the end of April, from “between 26 and 34 level on the south end of the mine … [and] … below 34 level in the middle portion of the Blanket orebody”, Caledonia Mining says that as well as encouraging results from the Blanket and Eroica structures the drilling has confirmed continuity of the Lima orebody “below 22 level (750 metres)”.
• Results from the potential new structure, described as returning “impressive grades and widths” include:

• • A 31.80m wide intersection (24.73m true width) at an average grade of 6.71g/t gold from a down-hole depth of 120.3m (895m below surface) in hole BLK-870-EX2312; and
  • A 10.80m wide (5.93m true width) intersection averaging 17.73g/t gold from a depth of 21.1m (817.1m below surface) in hole BLK-870-EX2308 which also intersected the Blanket 4/5 structure over a width of 26.3m (14.71m true width) at an average grade of 4.71g/t gold at 840.4m below surface (45.1m downhole depth).

• Other highlighted intersections include:

• • Intersections of the Blanket footwall zones in hole ARS-1110-EX2308 over 13.2m (8.98m true width and 1096.4m below surface) at an average grade of 25.06g/t gold and 3.0m (2.05m true width and 1,111.2m below surface) at an average grade of 21.39g/t gold; and
  • Intersections of the Blanket Quartz Reef in holes BLK-1110-EX2412 and 2414 at over 1000m below surface with average grade of 13.02g/t and 8.95g/t respectively over true widths of 5.27m and 4.32m; and
  • Intersections of the Eroica North orebody over true widths of 6.70m and 4.75m in holes ERC-750-EX2402 and 2403 averaging 7.26g/t and 6.15g/t gold from depths of 998.9m and 1,039.2m below surface.

• Today’s announcement confirms that drilling started “at Lima and initial intersections are encouraging. The likelihood of the Lima orebody (Lima main, footwall, hangingwall and intermediates) extending from 22 level to 34 level is considered to be high … [and] … the Lima orebody will be accessible from Eroica orebody development on 30 and 34 level with relatively minor extensions to current development”.
• Welcoming the latest results and expressing the view that “the positive grades and widths will result in an increased overall mineral resource estimate, which in due course should result in the extension of the existing life of mine … [CEO, Mark Learmonth, confirmed that] … Drilling is currently focussed on the Blanket and Eroica orebodies, where crosscuts have been developed to allow optimal access to drill the deeper zones of the steeply-dipping orebodies”.
• The drilling is expected to contribute to an updated MRE (Mineral Resource Estimate) “anticipated to be published by year end”.
• As well as reporting on the progress of its drilling campaign, Caledonia Mining explains that surface exploration, including geophysical induced polarisation (IP) and ground magnetic surveying is underway on the Blanket mining lease “targeting the Banded Iron Formation (“BIF”) which strikes in a north-westerly direction and has been exploited at the nearby Vubachikwe and Sabiwa gold mines”.
• The exploration is also expected to include surface trenching and a campaign of shallow reverse-circulation (RC) drilling focussed “on defining the potential of shallow oxide mineral resources”.
• For context, we understand that mining at Vubachikwe extended, in part, to greater depths than those currently accessed at the Blanket mine which, if our recollection is accurate, puts the deeper drilling intersections reported today into a positive context.
• In our opinion, today’s exploration results as well as the Blanket mine’s record Q1 gold output, reported in April, show the continuing benefits of the 5-year, US$67m underground development project centred around the new Central shaft, which was completed in 2021 delivering increased production capacity and extended the mine’s life into the 2030s.
• Subject to the updated MRE, it is now looking as if further mine life extensions may be achievable.

Conclusion: Since completing its major underground project development centred around the new Central Shaft in 2021, Caledonia Mining has been able to access deeper and previously inaccessible areas for exploration and results are looking positive for a further resource expansion and possible mine life extension when the MRE is revised later this year

*SP Angel mining analysts have visited Caledonia’s mining operations in Zimbabwe

Cobra Resources (COBR LN) 1.45p, Mkt cap £12.7m –Boland rare-earths project, South Australia progresses towards economic scoping study later this year

• Cobra Resources reports that it is progressing resource definition and metallurgical testing on its Boland paleochannel-hosted rare earths project towards an economic scoping study later this year.
• Assay results from its sonic drilling programme at its Boland rare earths project, which was completed in May, are now imminent.
• The results, in conjunction with results from historic drilling on recently acquired licences will inform an “independent Mineral Resource Estimate … which will be a precursor to economic scoping”.
• Today’s announcement also confirms that ”Metallurgical optimisation testing by the Australian Nuclear Scientific Organisation (“ANSTO”) has commenced. Diagnostic tests using alternate lixiviants to maximise dysprosium and terbium recoveries have been completed – results are expected in July 2025”.
• “A scaled ~44kg bench-scale ISR … [in-situ recovery] … column is scheduled to commence in the coming weeks to demonstrate ISR recovery across the greater Boland footprint – this will further optimise the processing flowsheet”.
• Managing Director, Rupert Verco, commented that Cobra Resources is “in the ideal jurisdiction to rapidly advance ISR mining and we look forward to working with the South Australian Department of Mining and other key stakeholders to advance field trials which are integral for our economic scoping study planned for later this year.”
• Last month, Cobra Resources expanded its landholding at the Boland rare-earths project by an additional 1,200km² to 3,365km².

Kavango Resources* (KAV LN) 0.90p, Mkt Cap £27m – Appointment of former Barrick Mining Corp, mine manager as General Manager for mining at Hillside, near Bulawayo, Zimbabwe

• Kavango have appointed Everjoy Ngomamiti from Barrick Mining Corp.,
• Mr Ngomamiti was formerly mining manager at Barrick’s flagship Bulyanhulu Gold Mine in Tanzania.and has 19 years’ of international mining experience across Africa and Australia.
• Zimbabwe has always had a high standard of education and their nationals are often valued for their pragmatic and practical approach, particularly in the mining industry.
• While it is unfortunate that so many Zimbabweans were forced to leave Zimbabwe for work it is good to see their return bringing great expertise back to the nation.

Conclusion: Kavango has a great geological team but has lacked the mining expertise that it needs to develop modern-standard mines.

The hillside prospects offer potential for a number of new mining opportunities. Further drilling and evaluation of their resources will be needed for mine planning.

*Two SP Angel Analysts visited Kavango’s Hillside mines and licenses in Zimbabwe earlier this year. An SP Angel analyst holds shares in Kavango

Pensana (PRE LN) 66p, Mkt Cap £192m – MOU wit ReElement Technologies

• The Company signed an MOU with American Resources (AREC US, Mkt Cap US$75m) and ReElement Technologies.
• The MOU is for a proposed offtake of up to 20ktpa MREC from the Longonjo Rare Earth Project in Angola.
• The agreement for a five year period with pricing to be agree.
• The MOU follows a similar agreement signed with a the trading arm of Toyota Group, Toyota Tsusho Corp, (20ktpa, 5y, pricing to be agreed) last week.
• September 2024 the Company also signed an MOU with Hanwa, a major Japanese trading house, for up to 20ktpa MREC over 5y term and pricing to be discussed.

Power Metal Resources* (POW LN) 12p, Mkt cap £14m –Exploration update from Oman copper project

• Power Metal Resources provides an update on their Block 8 Project in Oman, where they are earning a 12.5% stake from Alara Resources and Awtad.
• POW has now earnt 10% via an exploration spend of US$500k, and is planning the next US$240k spend to earn the full 12.5% stake.
• To date, POW has conducted ground-based exploration including rock chip sampling and mapping, alongside gravimetric geophysics surveys.
• The Company is prioritising two main targets, Al Maider and Al Mansur.
• Exploration work has yielded highlights from both projects including:

o   Al Maider

• Rock chip sampling inc. 7.8% Cu, 4.7% Cu, 2.8% Cu and 2.7% Cu.
• Company notes results show correlation between copper and the associated structural geology.

o   Al Mansur

• In-fill gravity survey has now identified the H2Target, which lies along strike from the H1 target.
• Three structural targets have been identified from regional gravimetric surveying.
• Drill targets have now been defined.
• Elsewhere on the licence package, the team has conducted further geochemical sampling, which has supported the upgrading of several targets for more detailed exploration.

Conclusion: Power Metals has now earnt a 10% stake in the Block 8 Project in Oman. This exploration spend has generated two high priority targets, Al Maider and Al Mansur, where high grade copper readings (7.8% Cu) have been reported. Positive exploration results to data have also encouraged the JV partner, Alara, to seek to boost its stake in Block 8 alongside POW. Going forward, the team will conduct additional infill mapping and sampling to support initial drill testing at Al Maider.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker for Power Metal Resources

Westgold (WGX AU) A$2.92, Mkt cap A$2.75bn – Fletcher Resource boosts Beta Hunt tonnage

• Australian producer Westgold reports a maiden MRE for the Fletcher Zone at its Beta Hunt mine in Western Australia.
• Fletcher Zone MRE stands at:

• • MI&I: 31mt at 2.3g/t Au for 2.3moz, predominantly in inferred category.
• Company sees opportunity for resource extensions, with Stage 1 Fletcher MRE open at Depth.
• Westgold will now focus on resource conversion drilling, targeting a maiden Ore Reserve in FY26.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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