SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Monday 21st October 2024

Gold soars past record highs amid escalating de-dollarisation talks from BRIC countries

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

80 Mile Plc* (80M LN) formerly Bluejay Mining* – Hydrogen and helium detected on Hammaslahti licenses

Altona Rare Earths (REE LN) – Confirmation of IOCG potential in Zambia

BHP (BHP LN) – Announcement on progress of negotiations on the 2015 Fundão dam accident

Castillo Copper (CCZ LN) – Acquiring an exploration project in NT

Mineral Resources (MIN AU) – Investigation into undeclared payments to Chairman

Predictive Discovery (PDI AU) – Quarterly results show DFS target for 2H25

Serabi Gold (SRB LN) – On track to achieve 2024 gold production guidance

South32 (S32 LN) – Quarterly results as production guidance maintained across operations

Vast Resources (VAST LN) – Production dips amid ongoing reorganisation

Yellow Cake (YCA LN) – Quarterly report highlights strong outlook for nuclear fuel demand

Gold ($2,730/oz) soars past record highs amid escalating de-dollarisation talks from BRIC countries

• Gold prices extended their disparity with US Treasury yields, breaking out above $2,700/oz as the 10-year yield closed over 4.1%.
• The move comes as Russia hosts the BRIC summit tomorrow, attended by Xi Jinping, Modi of India and other developing nations.
• Putin is pushing for a new global financial-payments system to dent America’s dominance over global foreign reserves.
• Russia is seeking its BRICS-Bridge to be built within a year, enabling cross-border settlements digitally.
• The move followed sanctions imposed on Dollar and Euro reserves after the invasion of Ukraine.
• C.58% of central bank foreign-reserve currencies currently sit in dollar-denominated assets.
• Central Banks have been boosting their non-dollar reserves, with gold a major beneficiary of this.
• However, India has objected to Putin’s push for a BRICs currency for pricing trade using a basket of gold and non-dollar currencies.
• Central Bank Gold Reserves (2Q24, WGC)
  • USA – 8,113t
  • Germany – 3,352t
  • Italy – 2,452t
  • France- 2,437t
  • Russia – 2,336t
  • China – 2,264t
  • Japan – 846t
  • India – 841t
  • Netherlands – 612t
  • Turkey – 585t
• Another tailwind to gold’s recent rally is likely the US budget deficit, which hit $1.8tn for fiscal 2024, the highest of the ex-COVID era.
• Interest on federal debt has exceeded $1tn for the first time, on increased spending on military and welfare.
• Trump is feared to aggravate concerns over fiscal recklessness, with his emphasis on tariffs, stimulus and tax cuts.
• The recent rally in gold may also reflect a market shift in favour of Trump over Kamala for the November election.
• COMEX net long positioning still sits below levels reached in September 2019, February 2020 and March 2022.

Copper ($9,750/t) rallies as China cuts rates and M&A speculation resurfaces

• Copper prices have bounced off recent lows, strengthening back towards $10,000/t mark.
• The move came as China’s PBOC cut the Loan Prime Rate again.
• Speculation in the copper sector continues, with the Saudis rumoured to be bidding for a stake in FQM’s Zambian copper mines. (Bloomberg)
• Additionally, Gecamines is reported to be looking to acquire an interest in Trafigura’s CHemaf unit.
• Iron ore strengthened despite record high inventory levels sitting in domestic ports.

Mining companies can offer multiple returns: Video:

Podcast: https://audioboom.com/posts/8591948-john-meyer-mining-companies-can-offer-multiple-returns

 Economics

China – The central bank cuts benchmark rates by 25bp.

• Both one year and five year loan prime rate that are used price business loans and mortgages, respectively, were cut to 3.1% and 3.6%.
• This marks the largest move since the two rates were created in 2019, according to FT.

Currencies

US$1.0851/eur vs 1.0838/eur previous. Yen 149.77/$ vs 150.11/$. SAr 17.609/$ vs 17.618/$. $1.303/gbp vs $1.306/gbp. 0.669/aud vs 0.671/aud. CNY 7.113/$ vs 7.111/$.
Dollar Index 103.61 vs 103.66 previous

Precious metals:

Gold US$2,727/oz vs US$2,706/oz previous

Gold ETFs 83.8moz vs 83.8moz previous

Platinum US$1,025/oz vs US$1,009/oz previous

Palladium US$1,080/oz vs US$1,062/oz previous

Silver US$34.2/oz vs US$32.0/oz previous

Rhodium US$4,775/oz vs US$4,775/oz previous

Base metals:

Copper US$9,731/t vs US$9,632/t previous

Aluminium US$2,642/t vs US$2,574/t previous

Nickel US$17,080/t vs US$17,020/t previous

Zinc US$3,124/t vs US$3,058/t previous

Lead US$2,077/t vs US$2,071/t previous

Tin US$31,313/t vs US$31,660/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$73.5/bbl vs US$74.7/bbl previous

• The US Baker Hughes rig count was down 1 unit to 585 rigs last week (-39 or 6% y/y), with oil rigs rising by 1 to 481 unit (-20 y/y) and gas rigs down 2 to 99 units (-19 y/y), losing 1 unit to 33 rigs in the Haynesville (-7 y/y).
• SLB’s 3Q24 results commentary pointed to weakened commodity prices as resulting in a more cautious approach to discretionary short-cycle spending, with expectations for upstream spending in the international markets to grow in the low single to mid-single digits, while North America will be flat to slightly down.
• Scatec announced financial close of ~$150m of bank-mandated project financing for the Mogobe battery energy storage system (BESS) facility totalling 103MW / 412MWh in South Africa, which is now making final preparations to start construction under a 15-year power purchase agreement (PPA).
• Media reports that Repsol has put on hold 350MW of planned green hydrogen projects in Spain due to an unfavourable regulatory environment, including uncertainty regarding the windfall tax on energy companies.

Natural Gas €39.7/MWh vs €39.5/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $83.3/lb vs $83.3/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (cfr Tianjin) US$104.1/t vs US$103.1/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$529.5/t vs US$526.2/t

HCC FOB Australia US$204.5/t vs US$209.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$147.3/t vs US$146.8/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$24,300/t vs US$24,300/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$59,700/t vs US$59,991/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$9,774/t vs US$9,893/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$750/t vs US$750/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$985/t vs US$985/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$340/mtu vs US$340/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$445/t vs US$445/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% 4.6/lb vs US$4.6/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% 24.55/kg vs US$24.55/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$316/t vs US$315/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,301/t vs US$1,298/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$63.9/t vs US$63.9/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$277.5/t vs US$277.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$2,875.0/kg vs US$2,875.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$455.0/kg vs US$455.0/kg

Battery News

US opens probe into Tesla Full-Self Driving software after fatal crash

• The US safety regulator has opened an investigation into 2.4m Tesla vehicles that are equipped with the automaker’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) software.
• The investigation comes after four reports of crashes In which FSD was being used, including a fatal crash in 2023.
• The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s (NHTSA) preliminary evaluation is the first step before the agency could seek a recall of the vehicles if it believes they pose an unreasonable risk to safety.
• Tesla has yet to comment publicly, but the company does say on its website that its FSD software in on-road vehicles requires active driver supervision and does not make vehicles autonomous.

New study finds biggest EU countries still spending €42bn on subsidising fossil fuel company cars

• A new study commissioned by environmental group Transport & Environment (T&E) has found that the EUs five biggest countries still spend €42bn annually on subsidising fossil-fuel company cars.
• Company cars currently make up about 60% of new car sales in Europe.
• Italy provides €16bn in subsidies for fossil-fuel company cars, Germany provides €13.7bn, followed by France (€6.4bn) and Poland (€6.1bn)
• “This is completely illogical and completely unacceptable, that we’re still pouring billions of taxpayer money into a technology that’s completely contradictory to the European Commission’s green transition agenda,” T&E’s director of fleets Stef Cornelis told Reuters.
• Sales of EVs in Europe have fallen, in part, due to them being more expensive than their fossil fuel counterparts.
• The EU saw sales of EVs slump 43.9% in August, with Germany and France recording declines of 68.8% and 33.1% respectively.
• The study found that the only country offering financial incentives for drivers of company cars to switch to EV was former EU member state, the UK.

Chery Auto to launch solid-state battery in 2026 and ultrafast 6C charging this year

• The Chinese automaker announced at the Chery Global Innovation Conference that it will launch a solid-state battery in 2026.
• Chery are aiming to achieve an energy density of 400Wh/kg this year and up to 600Wh/kg by 2025, with the first batteries going into EVs in 2026.
• The company claims the battery will give vehicles a range of 1500km on a single charge.
• The company also unveiled its Kunpeng battery brand, with three models of LFP batteries that will feature 6C battery charging, equivalent of adding 400km range in 5 minutes.
• C stands for charging rate, which is calculated by dividing the charging current (A) by the battery’s rated capacity (Ah). The higher the charging rate, the faster the battery can be charged or discharged.

Mini cuts prices of EVs in China by almost 30% to boost sales

• BMW brand Mini is offering a limited time price cut of 29% on two models in China just months after launching them.
• These two electric Mini models are rarely mentioned on Chinese social media space, and their sales figures are unknown.
• In China’s highly competitive EV market , limited-time discounts often turn into permanent price cuts.

Company News

80 Mile Plc* (80M LN) formerly Bluejay Mining* – 0.33p, Mkt cap £6.6m – Hydrogen and helium detected on Hammaslahti licenses

(Bluejay Mining holds 100% of the Hammaslahti and Enonkoski projects and all its Greenland prospects)

• 80 Mile plc reports the identification of natural hydrogen and helium in two historic drill holes on its Hammaslahti Project in Finland.
• The detection of these gasses indicates potential for further work to define some form of potentially economic discovery. The Hammaslahti licenses are in an area with the potential to install the necessary infrastructure required for manging hydrogen and helium production.
• Hydrogen: Surface sampling at the two “drill holes shows natural hydrogen concentrations reaching 1000 ppm representing the upper detection limit of the portable equipment used.”
  • “The presence of hydrogen flowing at such concentrations at surface suggests substantial subsurface gas accumulations and highlights the potential for hydrogen resource development in the region.”
• Helium: Helium concentrations stabilised at 7.10% at one of the drill holes.
• The license has >600 historic drill holes offering potential to quickly and cheaply collect many more hydrogen and helium measurements from the old drill holes.
• Management intend to continue and intensify its gas sampling programme across its Finnish licenses and to further evaluate the region’s industrial gas potential.
• Conclusion:  The report by 80 Mile plc is another step in confirming the potential for significant hydrogen and helium discovery but remains someway off confirmation of an economic discovery.
• The positive results from surface sampling will enable the Company to progress to the next stage of exploration activities.
• Helium exploration discoveries are currently attracting good multiples in financial markets due to forecasts for a global supply shortage and rapid projected demand growth from high-tech sectors, which use inert helium gas for the production of semi-conductor chips to the purging of space rocket engines.
• There are series of peer group companies listed on the AIM market by which to measure the potential value progression of new discoveries with investors supporting helium exploration and development companies.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to 80 Mile Plc (formerly Bluejay Mining). The analyst has visited Dundas in Greenland and the Hammaslahti and Enonkoski projects in Finland.

Altona Rare Earths (REE LN) 1.33p, mkt cap £2.0m – Confirmation of IOCG potential in Zambia

• Altona Rare Earths reports that a review of geophysical and geochemical data from its Kabompo South copper project in Zambia has concluded that it has the potential to host iron-ore copper gold (IOCG) mineralisation.
• The review, conducted on the company’s behalf by Earthmaps “a Namibian based geophysical services company … revealed that the licence is largely underlain by iron-rich Hook Granites intruding low metamorphic Kundelungu Group sediments at different depths … [with one of the magnetic anomalies coinciding] … with a soil geochemical anomaly marked by elevated copper values”.
• “Following this key and positive data assessment, the Company will proceed with further exploration work at Kabompo South. The initial phases will include magnetic forward and inversion modelling, as well as an extensive soil geochemical survey that will allow the Company to fully understand the geometry of the granite intrusions and associated structures, and to rapidly define initial drilling targets”.
• CEO, Cedric Simonet, commented that the review “has clearly outlined a geological context favorable to IOCG mineralisation, which are known to carry viable copper deposits in Zambia … [and saif that he is looking] … forward to implementing the next exploration activities on the ground”.
• Today’s announcement compares the geological setting at Kabompo South to that at “Kitumba, in the Mumbwa district of central Zambia … [where construction recently started on development of] … proved and probable ore reserves totalling 31.5 mt at 2.05% Cu”.

Conclusion: We look forward to future exploration results as the company moves to drilling at Kabompo South

BHP (BHP LN) 2,199p, £111bn – Announcement on progress of negotiations on the 2015 Fundão dam accident

• Following what it describes as “recent press speculation in Brazil” on its negotiations over the November 2015 failure of the Fundão dam, BHP has confirmed that negotiations over a “full and final settlement” are continuing and that “no final agreement has been reached on the settlement amount or terms”.
• “The parties are negotiating a settlement proposal that would provide a total financial value of approximately R$170 billion (US$31.7 billion) on a 100% basis to be delivered to the people, communities and environment impacted by the dam failure”.

Today’s announcement confirms that “The final settlement would:

• • establish a new compensation and indemnification system that was designed with the collaboration and endorsement of the public defenders and prosecutors to provide compensation for eligible people in the affected regions. Individuals and small businesses who agree to opt-in to the settlement will be compensated R$30,000 per person1 and eligible individual water damage claims will be compensated R$13,000 per person1. This is in addition to other amounts outlined below that will provide benefits to people, communities and the environment impacted by the dam failure;
  • provide compensation and performance obligations to complete the community resettlements and other socioenvironmental programs, including environmental remediation; and
  • provide R$8 billion1 to eligible Indigenous People and Traditional Communities following a consultation process pursuant to best practices to be led by the Federal Government. This process will allow each Indigenous People and Traditional Community to decide how to address the collective impacts to their communities, including through payments to families and its members”.

• The announcement also confirms that “A final settlement would not resolve the Australian class action complaint, United Kingdom group action complaint, the group action claim brought against certain Vale and Samarco entities in the Netherlands, criminal charges against Samarco, BHP Brasil, Vale and certain individuals, civil public actions commenced by private associations, including the civil public action concerning the use of Tanfloc for water treatment, trailing litigation from individuals (among others) and future or unknown claims which may arise from new information or damages in connection with the dam failure”.
• It also confirms that “The trial for the United Kingdom group action complaint commences 21 October 2024”.

Castillo Copper (CCZ LN) 0.38p, Mkt Cap £4.2m – Acquiring an exploration project in NT

• Castillo Copper has agreed to acquire an 85% interest in a niobium/uranium and heavy rare-earth elements project in Australia’s Northern Territory.
• The Hart’s Range project is located around 120km northeast of Alice Springs and comprises 100km² in two exploration licences where early-stage rock chip samples from five historical prospects located within a 12km long corridor of prospective geology (feldspar-biotite-amphibole-garnet gneisses) have shown the presence of niobium, uranium and rare-earths.
• Following an initial geological reconnaissance of the Cusp, Bobs and Bobs West, Niobium and Thorium prospects, Castillo Copper has conditionally agreed to “acquire 100% of the ordinary shares in … [the owner of the licences] … Audax Holdings … on the following terms”:
  • An initial A$35,000 exclusivity fee to “undertake its due diligence on Audax and the Project until 20 November 2024”; and
  • The issue of 145.5m shares, which will be “subject to a 6-month voluntary escrow period” valued at A$0.005/share (~A$0.73m).
• Commenting on the Harts Range project, Chairman, Ged Hall, explained that it hosted a “compelling mix of coincident critical minerals identified at surface”.

Conclusion: We await further news as exploration proceeds at the project

Mineral Resources (MIN AU) A$40, Mkt Cap A$7.8bn – Investigation into undeclared payments to Chairman

• The stock is down ~14% this morning on reports that Chairman, CEO and major shareholder Chris Ellison failed to disclose a tax evasion scheme.
• The Company has begun an investigation into undeclared payments made to companies owned by Ellison.
• The Australian Financial Review released a story over the weekend that the scheme established by MinRes staff that would acquire equipment through an overseas intermediary inflating purchase prices that would be used to claim higher depreciation in its tax returns.
• The firm is reported to have been owned by Chris Ellison and other employees.
• Ellison is reported to have struck a deal with the Australian Taxation Office to up the outstanding amount.
• In exchange, authorities agreed not to disclose the amount owed and said he will avoid police or regulatory investigation.
• The Board said it retained confidence in its Chairman and would update the market on results of internal investigation.
• “Ellison self-reported to the Australian Taxation Office, repaid amounts owed and disclosed these matters to the board,” the Company said in a statement.
• “While this does not diminish what happened, Mr Ellison profoundly regrets his errors of judgment.”
• Ellison commenting on the news said “regrettably, revenue generated by the overseas entities that we were beneficiaries of was not disclosed to the Australian Taxation Office at that time… this was a poor decision and a serious lapse of judgment.

Predictive Discovery (PDI AU) A$0.27, Mkt Cap A$623m – Quarterly results show DFS target for 2H25

• Guinean gold explorer/developer Predictive reports 3Q24 results as it continues to drill out its Bankan project.
• Resource drilling programmes initiated to upgrade the inferred resource to the indicated category.
• Near-resource exploration targeted at the SB project, where drilling has returned 19m at 2g/t Au from 83m and 15m at 8g/t Au from 105m.
• Regional exploration at the Argo and Bakoro targets.
• Environmental permitting ongoing, with the company preparing additional information as the Ministry reviews and evaluates information for the Environmental and Social Impact Assessment.
• Company notes ‘mining-related enhancement opportunities identified in the PFS,’ which will be assessed in the DFS.
• These included improvements of mining dilution, ore recovery, steeper overall pit slope angles, staging, underground transition .
• Company has begun geotechnical drilling for explore pit slope angles and underground mining.
• DFS due 2H25.
• Cash held at the bank of A$42m.
• Perseus Mining increased their position to 19.9% in Predictive.

Serabi Gold (SRB LN) 91p, Mkt Cap £65m – On track to achieve 2024 gold production guidance

1. Announcing operational results for the three- and nine-months ending 30^th September, Serabi Gold reports that output of a record 9,489oz during the quarter (Q3 2023 – 8,738oz) brings year-to-date gold output to 27,499oz.
2. Gold output for the first nine months of 2024 results from the processing of 164,292t of ore at an average grade of 5.42g/t gold.
3. CEO, Mike Hodgson, confirmed that the process plant is performing well and that Serabi Gold is “tracking well towards guidance” which is maintained in the range 38-40,000oz for 2024.
4. Today’s announcement also highlights the updated Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) for Coringa which was released earlier this month which describes the production of an average of ~34,000oz pa of gold at an all-in-sustaining cost of US$1,241/oz over an 11 year mine life from underground mining of a diluted resource of ~2.2mt at an average grade of 5.38g/t gold.
5. Based on a gold price of US$2,100/oz the project generates an after-tax NPV_10% of US$145m and the 7^th October announcement shows a table confirming that at gold prices of US$2,600/oz the NPV_10% increases to US$211m.
6. Commenting on the performance of Coringa Mr. Hodgson said that the “Coringa orebody continued to perform well with production principally now coming from levels 290m and 260m. The main Serra ramp has now reached level 165m and with development on levels 225m, 195m and 165m the mine is being developed well ahead of production. As mentioned in the past, the conversion of inferred resources into reserves at Coringa is close to 90% and therefore, the return of mineral reserves per metre developed is highly beneficial”.
7. At Palito, the “orebody continued to perform satisfactorily with good mine outputs, but not at forecast grades … [because of the] … need to bulk mine the Chica da Santa sector where selective mining had originally been planned. This resulted in lower than budgeted grades due to unavoidable dilution”.
8. Serabi Gold says that “As the Company ramps up the development of Coringa, several crews have been redeployed and, as a result, development and production levels at Palito have decreased slightly. A return to mined grades of 6.00g/t is forecast with the opening of the Barichello sector which will contribute a significant volume of production for 2025”.

Conclusion: Despite grade dilution arising from some bulk mining at Palito, Serabi remains confident of achieving its 38-40,000oz gold production guidance in 2024

*An SP Angel analyst has visited the Serabi’s gold mining operations in Brazil

South32 (S32 LN) 190p, Mkt Cap £8.6bn – Quarterly results as production guidance maintained across operations

• South32 reports quarterly results from Q2.
• The Company completed the sale of their Illawarra Met Coal mine for cash proceeds of US$964m.
• Aluminium production increased 3% yoy and 5% qoq to 298kt.
• Alumina production fell 8% yoy and 5% mom.
• Copper production up 10% to 17.6kt, up 15% qoq.
• Silver production down 39% yoy to 2,066koz and down 36% qoq.
• Manganese production down 61% yoy to 597kt but up 12% qoq.
• Net debt decreased by US$723m to US$39m following the sale of Illawarra.
• Working Capital up US$150m during the quarter reflecting movements in their aluminium division.
• US$135m of CAPEX invested excluding EAIs and Hermosa.
• US$3m shares repurchased, with $197m remaining in the programme to September 2025.
• US$123m invested in Hermosa CAPEX during the quarter.

Vast Resources (VAST LN) 0.1p, Mkt Cap £2m – Production dips amid ongoing reorganisation

• 2Q24 production amounted to 229t copper concentrate (20% Cu), down from 613t in 1Q24.
• Mined tonnages dropped to 10.2kt during the quarter, down from 25.4kt in 1Q24.
• Baita Plai workforce is reported to have been reduced to 162 people from 326.
• The operation is under a judicial court process of reorganisation.
• The Company has voluntarily called in administrators that will assist with reorganisation.
• As part of reorganisation, the Company obtained up to four years repayment term for outstanding owed debt.
• The process is ongoing with a court date set for 14 November where when administrators will discuss with creditors the reorganisation progress.

Yellow Cake (YCA LN) 611p, Mkt cap £1.32bn – Quarterly report highlights strong outlook for nuclear fuel demand

• Yellow Cake, which holds physical uranium U₃O₈ as well as some other uranium-related commercial activities reports Q3 results to end September.
• Uranium prices fell 4.4% to US$81.75/lb from US$85.50/lb through the quarter.
• The market for uranium is becoming more interesting and potentially more volatile for the following reasons:
  • Niger military government revoked Orano’s license to operate one of the world’s largest uranium mines. Niger produces ~5% of total uranium supply.
  • Kazatomprom (Kazakhstan) production looks likely to fall due to sulfuric acid availability, and transportation-related difficulties.
  • US utilities appealing for waivers to the embargo on Russian nuclear fuel.
  • Technology companies looking to secure nuclear power for hyperscale data centers to feed AI and other technological advancements.
    • Microsoft: agreement with Constellation Energy to purchase energy from the Three Mile Island Unit 1
    • Amazon: three new agreements to support development of nuclear energy projects, inc. construction of new Small Modular Reactors.
• While the value of Yellow Cake’s uranium holdings fell by 4.4% over the quarter based on the U₃O₈ spot price the value of Yellow Cake shares fell by 10.1%.
• The appreciation of Sterling also exacerbated this move.
• Primary mine supply of 140mlbs appears insufficient to meet the growth in new demand for >180mlbs.
• China recently  approved the construction of 11 new nuclear reactors on five sites across China costing CNY220 b (US$31bn) to be built within five years.
• China General Nuclear Power Corporation received approvals for six reactors:
  • China National Nuclear for three reactors
  • State Power Investment Corporation for two reactors
• The State Council has approved 31 reactors from 2022-2024 with a further 10 reactors per year over exepected over the next 3-5 years.
  • Russia is looking to produce 25% of Russian demand through nuclear power by 2045 with another 37 new reactors producing 28GW by 2042 including replacement reactors and 11 new plants.
  • Italy is evaluating the reintroduction of nuclear power.
  • Indonesia has included nuclear in its 2033 National Electricity General Plan.
  • Eastern Europe to develop >12 new nuclear reactors for ~€130 bn.
  • South Africa looking at funding for a 2,500 MW of nuclear capacity. The nation has also approved a 20-year operating life extension for Unit 1 of South Africa’s two-reactor nuclear power plant.
• South Korea issued construction licenses for Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power for the development of Units 3 and 4 of Shin Hanul with the units scheduled for operations from 2032 and 2033.
• US DoE analysis shows 60 to 95 GWe of new nuclear capacity could be sited at existing and recently retired nuclear sites suggesting 41 sites can host one or more large light-water reactors for 60-95 GW of new capacity.
• IAEA ‘The International Atomic Energy Agency’ reports there 413 reactors running at 371.5 Gwe by end-2023 with five new reactors (5 GWe) connected to the grid and five reactors (6 GWe) retired.
• Another 59 reactors (61.1 GWe) are construction.
• The IAEA reckon global commercial nuclear power capacity will multiply 2.5 times 950 GWe by 2050 from 372 GWe.

No.1 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Quarterly Starmine Award for Reuters Polls Q1 2024

No.1 in Copper:  “The winner of the 2020 Fastmarkets Apex contest for copper was the team at SP Angel comprising John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore, with an accuracy score of 93.8%”

No1. In Gold:  “SP Angel’s trio took the top spot for the gold price prediction throughout the year, with an accuracy score of 97.59%”

The SP Angel team also ranked 1st in Palladium, 3rd in Tin and 5th in Silver in the fourth quarter of 2020

Analysts

John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

SP Angel                                                            

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street London

W1S 2PP

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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Where the investment is traded on AIM it should be noted that liquidity may be lower and price movements more volatile.

SPA, its partners, officers and/or employees may own or have positions in any investment(s) mentioned herein or related thereto and may, from time to time add to, or dispose of, any such investment(s).

SPA is registered in England and Wales with company number OC317049.  The registered office address is Prince Frederick House, 35-39 Maddox Street, London W1S 2PP.  SPA is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange plc.

MiFID II – Based on our analysis we have concluded that this note may be received free of charge by any person subject to the new MiFID II rules on research unbundling pursuant to the exemptions within Article 12(3) of the MiFID II Delegated Directive and FCA COBS Rule 2.3A.19.

A full analysis is available on our website here http://www.spangel.co.uk/legal-and-regulatory-notices.html. If you have any queries, feel free to contact our Compliance Officer, Tim Jenkins (tim.jenkins@spangel.co.uk).

SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return