SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Monday 17th April 2023

Gold and copper lead metals higher as the dollar declines on 25bp rate rise expectation

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) – BUY, 202p – Q1.23 production of 11.0koz GEO

Atalaya Mining (ATYM LN) – Annual production guidance reiterated after Q1 production results

Bluebird Merchant Ventures (BMV LN) – Further delay to mining

Griffin Mining Ltd (GFM LN) – Q1 Production Results as operations ramp back up

Rambler Metals and Mining* (RMM LN) – Suspended – Court-appointed Monitor invites third party interest

Thor Explorations (THX LN) – Q1 Operating Update and Mineral Resource upgrade

IGTV:   23/03/23: Mining in a banking crisis – how does it work?  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DiL9Ea88o-w

VOX Markets Podcast:  24/03/2023: https://audioboom.com/posts/8269467-john-meyer-why-gold-is-rallying-plus-atlantic-lithium-celsius-resources

• 10/03/2023:  https://audioboom.com/posts/8261642-john-meyer-is-china-s-growth-ambitions-believable-plus-amur-atlantic-lithium-cornish-metals

ii Interactive Investor:  Battery Metals – Four Stocks – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8fwy6PXUe6s&t=5s

• Battery Metals Market – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfdOAUO46tw&t=3s
• Gold – Four Companies – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2mVzyw4heDQ&t=3s

*SP Angel almost invariably acts as nomad or broker or nomad and broker to companies mentioned in the above videos and podcasts. We speak more about these companies as we have a good understanding of their business and can talk with a greater degree of confidence. As ever, however, it should be noted that our views do not take into account the circumstances and needs of any particular investor or investor type. So enjoy the talks, but please do your own research, including other companies not mentioned by us but operating in the same areas, and get professional advice where appropriate.

Ghana – Ghana is the first country to approve a new malaria vaccine developed at Oxford University

• The R21 vaccine is reported to be highly effective with 75% efficacy, and 77% efficacy in phase 3 trials, according to a report in The Guardian.
• The vaccine has been cleared for use by Ghana’s Food and Drugs Authority in children aged 5-36 months, which is the group at highest risk of mortality from malaria.
• Over 619,000 people are reported to have died of Malaria in 2021 according to the WHO in their recent World Malaria Report.
• The figure does not include the millions whose lives are cut short by repeated malaria infection with 247m estimated cases.
• Ghana had 5.3m estimated cases in 2021 with 12,500 probable malaria deaths recorded.
• The arrival of a new insecticide resistant malarial mosquito into urban settings is causing increasing concern across Africa.

Gold – $2,012/oz – prices rally higher as dollar volatility persists

• The move paralleled volatility in the dollar, which hit yearly lows on Friday before climbing 1% against a basket of currencies this morning.
• US Treasury yields are holding near 6-month lows at 3.52%, although they have climbed 20bp since the 6^th April.
• Traders are digesting US core retail sales for March which remained robust whilst production at US factories weakened.
• Fed President Bostic stated that the Fed now needs one final 25bp hike before ending its tightening cycle.

Tin prices climb to 2-month highs as reports raise concern of Myanmar export ban

• Tin prices in Shanghai jumped 11% overnight to $31,618/t, its highest since Feb 23^rd, whilst LME prices climbed to $27,705/t.
• A report has circulated from Mynamar’s Wa state about a potential mining ban to preserve the country’s ore supply, although this has not been verified as of yet.
• Tin supply remains tight, and the Wa state is Myanmar’s largest producer of the metal, exporting the majority of its supply to China.

Iron ore extends losses despite Beijing ramping up infrastructure stimulus

• Chinese iron ore prices fell 2.1% to $110/t, sliding to fortnightly lows.
• Industrial output and GDP data for Q1 both highlighted weakness in China’s economy, with retail sales data now in focus.
• China’s Central Bank bolstered liquidity stimulus by rolling over medium-term policy loans and ramping up cash offerings this morning, which has seen infrastructure equities jump.
• However, it held its medium-term lending rate at 2.75%.
• Iron ore prices are primarily suffering from expectations of steel production controls being reintroduced, with Beijing pursuing several routes to price control for the key steelmaking ingredient.

World to emerge from Covid slowdown as better communications speed recovery

• We are of the view that economic recovery may happen much faster these days than would have been expected in previous cycles
• Email and social media speed global communications
• Central bankers react faster to global trends and even politicians move a bit quicker to economic events these days following the GFC
• Interest rate cycles may therefore be expected to move faster up and then down than before.
• Global markets are expected to follow a more rapid contraction and hopefully expansion than ever before.

 Economics

China – The central bank left benchmark rates unchanged remaining in a wait and see mode as the economy is emerging out of Zero Covid policy.

• One year medium term lending rate was left at 2.75%, in line with expectations.
• The MLF rate has been at this level for the last nine months.
• GDP and economic data is expected to be released tomorrow offering a glimpse into the strength of an economic recovery.

Beijing says it will not sell weapons to either side for the war in Ukraine

• China will continue its neutral stance according to Qin Gang, China’s foreign minister..
• The minister also added that China will  also regulate the export of items with dual civilian and military use.
• Unfortunately, Li Shangfu, also a defence minister has just vowed to strengthen military cooperation with Putin
• While the news is good, it is still possible that non-authorised traders may still supply components which might be used in the manufacture of missiles in Russia and Iran.
• We are also wary of Indian and Middle Eastern traders with this regard.
• China claims it is adopting ‘a prudent and responsible attitude’ but Qin Gang stopped short of calling for an end to the war.
• Russia has become increasingly dependent on China as a direct result of its new isolation from the West with Chinese traders benefitting from discounted Russian oil, LPG and other commodities.

US – Fed likely to hike rates 25bp at the next FOMC meeting in two weeks’ time

• Inflation is now falling more in line with expectations as supply side disruption eases and the world returns to a new post-Covid normal
• Commodities prices are rising as the US dollar weakens on the revised expectation
• Retails Sales (%mom): -1.0 March v -0.4 February and -0.5 est.
• Retail Sales ex Auto and Gas (%mom): -0.3 March v 0.0 February and -0.6 est. highlighting the impact of higher interest rates on the economy.
• Retail Sales Control Group (%mom): -0.3 March v 0.5 February and -0.5 est.
• UoM Consumer Sentiment: 63.5 April v 62.0 March and 62.1 est.

ECB – Martins Kazaks hints at 25bp rate rise in May

• With inflation coming down in the West due to lower energy prices and largely restored supply chains from China to the West helping product availability.
• Second hand car prices are also expected to fall as the shortage of semiconductors abates enabling auto manufacturers to catch up on deliveries.

Germany to support mineral processing infrastructure in Namibia, Indonesia and Chile

• Olaf Sholz announced plans to invest in critical mineral-rich countries and their ability to process ore domestically.
• The move follows a wider theme of reducing reliance on China for critical minerals.
• Sholz noted the investment will ‘create greater local prosperity,’ and ‘ensure that we have more than just one supplier in the future.’

Germany – to shut last three nuclear reactors, following 14 previous reactor closures.

• Germany plans to fill the gap left by the destruction of the NortStream pipeline with LNG which will raise local energy costs

Ukraine – Ukrainian grain flooding Western markets with shipments stolen by Russian occupiers also.

• The lifting of import tariffs on Ukranian goods has encouraged the flow of Ukrainian produce while logistics to move shipments into global markets remain disrupted and uncertain.

Currencies

US$1.0996/eur vs 1.1065/eur last week Yen 133.89/$ vs 132.51/$. Sar 18.035/$ vs 18.092/$. $1.242/gbp vs $1.253/gbp. 0.672/aud vs 0.677/aud. CNY 6.867/$ vs 6.844/$.

Dollar Index 100.91 vs 100.91 last week.

Commodity News

LME legal proceedings on the suspension of nickel trading in March last year will start on 20^th May.

Precious metals:

Gold US$2,012/oz vs US$2,040/oz last week

Gold ETFs 93.5moz vs US$93.5moz last week

Platinum US$1,057/oz vs US$1,053/oz last week

Palladium US$1,493/oz vs US$1,507/oz last week

Silver US$25.57/oz vs US$25.88/oz last week

Rhodium US$7,500/oz vs US$7,500/oz last week

Base metals:   

Copper US$ 9,101/t vs US$9,085/t last week

Aluminium US$ 2,387/t vs US$2,381/t last week

Nickel US$ 24,660/t vs US$23,905/t last week

Zinc US$ 2,863/t vs US$2,868/t last week

Lead US$ 2,152/t vs US$2,145/t last week

Tin US$ 27,705/t vs US$24,720/t last week

Energy:           

Oil US$86.28/bbl vs US$86.1/bbl last week

• Crude prices edged higher over the weekend as the IEA warned that supply cuts by OPEC+ would hurt Western economies already experiencing inflationary pressures and that China would drive most global demand growth.
• The US Baker Hughes rig count was down 3 units to 748 rigs last week (+55 y/y), with oil rigs down 2 to 584 and gas rigs down 1 to 157 units, though the Permian region still posted a gain of 3 units to 356 rigs.

Natural Gas US$2.170/mmbtu vs US$2.007/mmbtu last week

Uranium UXC US$50.35/lb vs US$50.35/lb last week

Bulk:

Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$115.95/t vs US$116.3/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$590.7/t vs US$590.7/t

Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$132.0/t vs US$132.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$189.0/t vs US$189.0/t

Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$286.0/t vs US$286.0/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$34,930/t vs US$34,930/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$71,972/t vs US$72,600/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$25,501/t vs US$25,501/t

China Spodumene Li2O 5%min CIF US$4,590/t vs US$4,590/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,367/t vs US$1,367/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$323/mtu vs US$323/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$780/t vs US$780/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% 8.9/lb vs US$8.9/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% 36.75/kg vs US$36.75/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$347/t vs US$347/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$102.2/t vs US$102.2/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$420.0/t vs US$420.0/t

Company News

Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) 106p Mkt Cap £121m – Q1.23 production of 11.0koz GEO

BUY – 202p

• Q1/23 production amounted to 11.0koz GEO (Q1/22: 13.7koz) comprised of:
  • 6.7koz gold (Q1/22: 10.0koz);
  • 0.8kt copper (Q1/22: 0.6kt);
  • 23koz silver (Q1/22: 51koz).
• Weaker gold production reflected lower agitation leaching plant contribution with the facility idled between 11 February and 24 March as the mill for the plant processed more of a copper rich ore that was then processed using the flotation circuit.
• Agitation leaching plant processed 62kt at 1.4g/t producing 2.3koz gold (Q1/22: 144kt at 1.63g/t for 5.7koz).
• At the same time, flotation plant feed increased to 193kt at 0.59% Cu and 0.24g/t Au producing 0.7kt copper and 0.8koz gold (Q1/22: 105kt at 0.55% Cu and 0.57g/t Au for 0.4kt copper and 1.1koz gold).
• Heap leaching operations’ contribution was broadly little changed at 3.7koz (Q1/22: 3.3koz).
• Gold bullion sales totalled 5.7koz (post PSA) at an average realised gold price of $1,895/oz (Q1/22: 7.5koz at $1,904/oz).
• Copper concentrate sales were 1.1kt (post PSA) generating $2.7m in net revenue (Q1/22: 1.5kt and $3.2m).
• Closing cash balance stood at $10.7m with $9.6m in unsold dore and copper concentrate (Q4/22: $20.5m and $3.6m).

Conclusion: Quarterly production results are broadly in line with our previous estimates highlighting a change in the mix of gold and copper production. A dip in available gold rich ores saw agitation leaching plant contribution pulling back that was in turn partly compensated by higher throughput at the flotation circuit. The update reflects previously released FY23 guidance highlighting lower gold and stronger copper production during the year. We would expect production to increase towards Q4/23 as agitation leaching plant starts treating higher grade feed from the underground Gilar operation (2.4mt at 1.96g/t and 1.32% Cu hosted in higher grade zone based on inhouse estimates) currently in development.

Valuation is largely unchanged ($299m/202p NAV/TP vs $298m/201p before) with minor adjustments reflecting slightly higher realised concentrate pricing, changes in processed tonnage and movements in working capital.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Anglo Asian Mining

 Atalaya Mining (ATYM LN) 350.5p, Mkt Cap £490m – Annual production guidance reiterated after Q1 production results

• Atalaya Mining has confirmed its 2023 production guidance of 53-55,000t of 2023 copper production following Q1 performance which delivered 12,139t of copper.
• The company says that it gave priority to waste removal during the quarter “in order to align ore mining rates with plant capacity during the Period” with a total of 6.5mt (Q1 – 6.8mt) of waste.
• Mine production amounted to 3.4mt of ore with a total of 3.7mt treated at a grade of 0.38% copper (Q1 2022 – 4.0mt of ore and 3.5mt treated at a grade of 0.37% copper).
• Atalaya Mining explains that the treatment rate was “impacted by the decision to bring forward a scheduled plant maintenance shutdown from April 2023 to March 2023”.
• Recovery rates of 86.88% during the quarter are broadly in line with the 86.07% recovery of Q1 2022 and consistent with the upper end of the 2023 guidance range of 84-86%.
• The company has previously commented on the impact of electricity prices and it is reassuring to hear that “So far in 2023, market electricity prices have been significantly lower than the levels experienced during 2022, thanks to lower gas prices in Europe and mild weather … [and that] … electricity prices in Q1 2023 were around 50% lower than the Company’s average realised electricity price in 2022”.
• Atalaya Mining also reiterates the results of its Preliminary Economic Assessment for the deposits at Cerro Colorado, San Dionisio and San Antonio within the Riotinto project area which was released in February and examined the incorporation of feed from these deposits into the 15mtpa at Proyecto Riotinto. This development strategy provides an opportunity to increase annual copper output from 2027 to around 90,000tpa “as a result of processing higher grade material, as well as a potential reduction in cash costs”.
• CEO, Alberto Lavandeira, described the start of 2023 as positive and confirmed that the operations are “performing well, with a catch-up in throughput expected in April 2023 following the decision to bring forward plant maintenance activities into Q1 2023. Electricity prices have continued to fall from 2022 levels, which will have a positive impact on our unit costs”.
• He expressed confidence in the outlook for copper “as major economies accelerate their investments in the energy transition and secure critical raw materials supply. In recent months, many of our peers in the mining sector have been active in pursuing copper production growth, which emphasises the scarcity value associated with high quality copper assets in mining friendly jurisdictions like Spain”.
• Mr. Lavandeira also welcomed “the environmental approval at Proyecto Masa Valverde, which highlights that Andalucía is a world-class mining jurisdiction” and he confirmed the continuing permitting work at Proyecto Touro and the continuing exploration “at Proyecto Masa Valverde and Proyecto Ossa Morena”.

Conclusion: Atalaya Mining confirms its 2023 production guidance following a solid Q1 operational performance and lower power costs following the record levels of 2022 as it sees the benefits of its 10-year power supply agreement and looks ahead to its own renewable energy projects contributing over 20% of its power requirements.

 Bluebird Merchant Ventures (BMV LN) 1.53p, Mkt Cap £11m – Further delay to mining

• Temporary Mountain Use Permits at Kochang Gold and Silver Project in South Korea delayed.
• Despite formal consent from the local community in South Korea and an 800 page submission the company is being asked for greater detail on m easures to reduce the risk of environmental impact and to conduct a successful wider community consultation and gain of support beyond the immediate area.
• The company also reports it will repay all outstanding loans and become debt free with sufficient funding to cover the next 12 months based on its current plan.
• Bluebird raised £230k at 2pin December to support completion of the application of the Temporary Mountain Use Permits at Kochang with the expectation that permits would be secured early this year. The shares were issued with a warrant at 3.5p and a one-year expiry.

 Griffin Mining Ltd (GFM LN) 80p, Mkt Cap £156m – Q1 Production Results as operations ramp back up

• Griffin Mining reports its production results for the three months to 31^st March 2023.
• Griffin produced a record for the quarter since the mine’s commissioning in 2005, despite extended Chinese New Year holidays.
• The company mined 355,742t in the period vs 228,510t in Q4 2022 and 17,975t in Q1 2022.
• 366,120t of ore was processed vs 184,045t processed in Q4 2022 and 8,649t in Q1 2022.
• Zn in concentrate produced in the period was 13,965t vs 6,739t in Q4 2022.
• Au in concentrate produced in the period was 68,779oz vs 59,561t in Q4 2022.
• The Company notes that both mining and processing rates are now running equivalent to 1.5mtpa, in line with forecasted expectations.
• The ramp up in production follows a year of disruption in 2022, when operations were suspended in the lead up to Beijing’s National Congress meeting after a region-wide crackdown on blasting.

 Rambler Metals and Mining* (RMM LN) Suspended – Court-appointed Monitor invites third party interest

• Rambler Metals and Mining has announced that the Monitor of the company, Grant Thornton, which was appointed by the Supreme Court of Newfoundland and Labrador to manage its affairs under the Companies’ Creditors Arrangement Act, has now started a process to “solicit interest in and opportunities for a sale of, or investment in, all or part of the Company’s Business”.
• The sales and investment solicitation process (SISP) “may include one or more of a restructuring, recapitalization or other form of reorganization of the business and affairs of all or part of the Company as a going concern, or a sale of all, substantially all, or a portion of the Company’s Business as a going concern or otherwise”.
• The SISP has a Phase 1 deadline date of 5pm (local time) on 19^th May by which time interested parties are required to submit a non-binding letter of interest prior to “a second phase of the process … or alternatively proceed to negotiate definition transaction documentation with a bidder or terminate the SISP”.
• Any transaction arising from the SISP requires Court approval.
• Rambler’s Ming Mine has a substantial mineral resource inventory with “an estimated remaining mine life of 19 years” and management has made important progress in rejuvenating the mine through stabilisation of the operations, establishment of multiple production areas to improve operational resilience and the identification of additional mineral resource potential in close proximity to current operational areas of the mine.

Conclusion: We imagine that the SISP will attract interest from third parties interested in building on the recent operational improvements to the Ming mine and taking the further development of a substantial, long-life copper mineral resource to fruition.  We await the outcome of the Phase 1 SISP with interest.

*SP Angel act as Nomad and Broker to Rambler Metals & Mining. An SP Angel analyst holds shares in Rambler Metals & Mining

Thor Explorations (THX LN) 20p, Mkt Cap £125m – Q1 Operating Update and Mineral Resource upgrade

• Thor reports its Q1 operational results for its Segilola Gold mine in Nigeria and exploration properties in Nigeria, Senegal and Burkina Faso.
• Segilola production saw 198,425t of ore mined, a fall from the 322,421t mined in the previous quarter and a decline from the 226,314t of ore mined in the same period 2022.
• Segilola average grade mined fell from 3.51g/t in Q4 2022 to 2.85g/t in Q1 2023.
• The Segilola operation processed 231,001t in the period with a 94.1% recovery rate, recovering 20,629oz of Au in the period vs 26,331oz in Q4.
• The Company reports a new, high grade quartz vein system has been identified 15km from Segilola, with drill hole intercepts of 1m at 310g/t Au a highlight.
• Production guidance has been held between 85-95koz for 2023 at Segilola.
• Thor has upgraded its MRE at Douta to 1.78moz Au, a 144% increase vs the 2022 maiden MRE announced in November 2021.
• The optimised pit shell Douta Resource now comprises of:
  • 20.2mt at 1.3g/t Au for 874.9oz Au in the Indicated category and an inferred MRE of 24.1Mt at 1.2g/t Au for 909oz Au.
  • The resource is supported by 64,567m of drilling.
  • Thor expects to complete an additional 40,000m of drilling this year, with mineralisation remaining open along strike.
  • The Company hopes to complete a PFS at Douta in Q4 and is eyeing additional exploration programs in Nigeria.

• Thor has reduced its senior debt facility to $27.9m as of March 31^st, with the facility with AFC amended to facilitate ‘growth opportunities.’

No.1 in Copper:  “The winner of the 2020 Fastmarkets Apex contest for copper was the team at SP Angel comprising John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore, with an accuracy score of 93.8%”

No1. In Gold:  “SP Angel’s trio took the top spot for the gold price prediction throughout the year, with an accuracy score of 97.59%”

The SP Angel team also ranked 1st in Palladium, 3rd in Tin and 5th in Silver in the fourth quarter of 2020

Analysts

John Meyer – [email protected] – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – [email protected] – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –[email protected] – 0203 470 0474

 Sales

Richard Parlons –[email protected] – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne – [email protected] – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees – [email protected] – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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