SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Friday 6th June 2025

Precious metals join gold in rally as dollar declines and buyers look for cheaper alternatives

Tin market – Acquisitions mark turn in tin market as Critical metals supplies tighten

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Anglo American (AAL LN) – De Beers sale starts, with interest from ex-CEOs and Michael O’Keefe

Andrada Mining (ATM LN) – Operational Update as focus on cost efficiencies.

Empire Metals* (EEE LN) – Full year results and Pitfield progress

KEFI Gold and Copper* (KEFI LN) – FY24 results

Keras Resources* (KRS LN) –– Mobilisation of production at Nayéga manganese mine to drive new income for Keras

Taseko Mines (TKO LN) – Agreement concerning New Prosperity project, BC

Precious metals join gold in rally as dollar declines and buyers look for cheaper alternatives

• Silver has climbed to 13-year highs having held relatively flat over the past three months.
• Meanwhile, platinum is up 3% this morning to $1,170/oz and palladium is up 1.8% to $1,030/oz.
• Gold has also edged higher, sitting at $3,383/oz.
• Platinum is enjoying a jump in Chinese retail demand following the gold rally, with buyers looking for value in alternative precious metals.
• PGMs are also seeing speculative inflows as hedge funds seek new trades in the beaten-down space following three years of weak demand.
• Platinum ETF holdings are up 3% over the past month and silver ETF holdings are up c.8%.
• Focus turns to today;s NFP print, with concerns over a slowing labour market mounting following the weak ADP reading on Wednesday.
• The US 10 year yield has fallen as traders pull back on their hawkish outlook for Fed rate cuts.
• The dollar remains weak, also supporting the precious metal trade as investors seek hedging opportunities.

Tin market – Acquisitions mark turn in tin market as Critical metals supplies tighten

• China appears to be tightening the supply of critical raw materials into Western markets in typical PRC fashion.
• With Rare Earths they claim the metal oxides are available with an overly complex export system being blamed for the lack of REEs into wester markets
• Is this down to overenthusiastic bureaucracy or it is a cunning ruse to deliberately starve western manufacturers?
• Either way some key players are positioning for an upside move in tin:
  • International Resources Holding (IRH) is acquiring 56% of Alphamin Resources in the DRC from Denham Capital for C$503m valuing the company near C$900 million.
  • Metals X Limited is offering a 25% premium (~US$17m) for 28% of Greentech Technology for its stake in the Renison Tin Mine in Tasmania
  • Xingye Gold (Hong Kong) has agreed to takeover Atlantic Tin for its Achmmach and Bou El Jaj Tin Projects in Morocco.
• Tin is more critical to the electronics industry than rare earths.
• China produced some 190,000-210,000t of refined tin last year representing just over 50% of global consumption of 367,900t
• While China does not entirely control the tin market, it is concerned over the disruption of tin supplies from Myanmar, much of which is unofficial.
• Consumers are also concerned over the potential impact of disruption in the DRC with the M23 rebels not far from the Alphamin mine site.
• The rise of AI is generating new demand for high-power datacentres and new AI-supported electronic devices will no-doubt spur sales.
• All these electronics use soldered connections with 99.999% of these using tin.
• A shortage of exploration and discovery in tin over the past 30 years means there are few new mines to make up any gap in supply or an increase in demand with many of the existing producers thought to be resource constrained.
• Tin stocks to look at are:
  • Cornish Metals* (CUSN LN) – reopening the South Crofty tin mine
  • Rome Resources ( RMR LN) – Bisie North tin project in DRC, close to Alphamin
  • Elementos Ltd (ELT AU) – Oropesa tin project in Spain. Metals X recently agreed to invest A$5m in Elementos
  • Eloro Resources (ELO AU) – Iska Iska Silver-Tin Complex in Bolivia. Not allot of Western miners dare to go there!

*SP Angel act as Nomad and broker to Cornish Metals

REEs – Vehicle manufacturers panic over the rapid impact of lack of rare earth magnets and rare earth oxides from China

• Yet again, the West is caught by its ‘just-in-time’ inventory management and is rapidly running out of components for EV and hybrid vehicle production.
• There is a great deal of uncertainty in the supply chain with Chinese suppliers not knowing about the REE restrictions
• Magnet distributors appear to be in denial on the REE export restrictions.
• Chinese customers claim other supplier have not yet informed them of problems in the REE magnet supply chain.
• We see significant disruption to Western EV manufacturing within weeks if China does not relax the bureaucracy and restrictions on REE magnet exports.

UK EV sales reach 21% market share in May

• UK new registrations of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) were up 28% yoy in May, accounting for 21% of total new registrations.
• The first five months of 2025 have seen new registrations of BEVs total 175,165.
• Sales of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles are continuing a downward trend – in May, petrol car sales fell 23.6% yoy and diesel sales dropped by 1.9% yoy.
• Tesla, who’s largest market in Europe is the UK, saw sales continue to decline significantly, falling 36% yoy in May.
• Tesla has now been overtaken by BYD for monthly sales and is set to lose out to VW for UK EV sales across 2025 too.

Vox Markets: Mining Matters: https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/articles/mining-matters-sp-angel-s-john-meyer-on-commodities-capital-and-change-7c82c6d/

SharePickers: Copper – We’ve Never Seen This Before in the World: Video: 

Podcast: https://audioboom.com/channels/4099560-the-sharepickers-podcast-with-justin-waite

Currencies

US$1.1428/eur vs 1.1423/eur previous. Yen 143.86/$ vs 143.13/$. SAr 17.778/$ vs 17.813/$. $1.355/gbp vs $1.357/gbp. 0.650/aud vs 0.651/aud. CNY 7.186/$ vs 7.182/$.

Dollar Index 99.117 vs 99.116.

Economics

US – President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping agreed to launch a new round of high-level talks following a phone call on Thursday.

• Tensions have picked lately as a number of automakers voiced concerns over availability of permanent magnets using rare earth elements and China’s limited exports.
• President Trump posted on Truth Social that there “should no longer be any questions respecting the complexity of Rare Earth products”.
• High level economic talks are expected to resume soon.

President Trump and Elon Musk exchange heated remarks as relationship implodes.

• Musk criticised the proposed tax bill, called for Trump to be impeached and argued that Trump’s trade policies will push the US into recession later this year.
• President Trump said he was disappointed with his stance on the tax bill adding that Musk criticised the bill because it would end policies that benefited Tesla.
• “I took away his EV Mandate that forced everyone to buy Electric Cars that nobody else wanted (that he knew for months I was going to do!), and he just went CRAZY!” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
• Tesla fell nearly 11% yesterday.
• “Keep the EV/solar incentive cuts in the bill, even though no oil & gas subsidies are touched (very unfair!!), but ditch the MOUNTAIN of DISGUSTING PORK in the bill,” Musk responded.
• We believe Musk is referring to ‘pork barrel’ politics where politicians are given specific benefits to appease their supporters.
• Trump said the government is likely to terminate Elon’s government subsidies and contracts. Ironically, cutting out some of the ‘Pork’!
• Musk said that it will start decommissioning its Dragon spacecraft immediately.
• We suspect Elon isn’t used to not getting his way

Russia – 1m Russian casualties in Ukraine estimated by end June

• The horrific cost of the Ukraine war continues to rise with little end in sight.
• While some elements of Russia’s war machine are being ground down by Ukrainian special operations others are ramping up.
• Drone and missile attacks on Ukraine continue to rise as China, North Korea and Iran feed Russian forces.
• We note there has not been much mention of Iranian Shahed drones since an explosion at the Port of Shahid Rajaee in Iran which was linked to a shipment of ammonium perchlorate.

Precious metals:

Gold US$3,356/oz vs US$3,373/oz previous

Gold ETFs 88.4moz vs 88.5moz previous

Platinum US$1,157/oz vs US$1,108/oz previous

Palladium US$1,014/oz vs US$1,007/oz previous

Silver US$36.0/oz vs US$34.6/oz previous

Rhodium US$5,575/oz vs US$5,425/oz previous 

Base metals:

Copper US$9,721/t vs US$9,658/t previous

Aluminium US$2,451/t vs US$2,476/t previous

Nickel US$15,490/t vs US$15,430/t previous

Zinc US$2,677/t vs US$2,696/t previous

Lead US$1,989/t vs US$1,979/t previous

Tin US$32,480/t vs US$31,925/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$64.9/bbl vs US$65.1/bbl previous

• US Henry Hub natural gas prices were stable as the EIA reported a 122bcf w/w build to 2,598bcf (+113bcf exp), with storage inventories now 10% below last year and 4.7% above the 5-year average.
• Equinor and Centrica have signed a ~5bcm/yr long-term gas sales agreement for a period of 10 years starting this October at terms reflecting market prices, which will cover nearly 10% of total annual UK gas demand.
• Gazprom announced exports via the Power of Siberia pipeline reached a new record high in March and covered about a quarter of China’s additional demand for gas in 2024. The annual volume of Russian pipeline gas supplies to China is expected to grow by 10bcm to 48bcm with the start-up of the Far Eastern pipeline in 2027.

Natural Gas €36.5/MWh vs €36.2/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $70.4/lb vs $71.0/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$96.3/t vs US$95.5/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$466.0/t vs US$466.9/t

HCC FOB Australia US$185.0/t vs US$186.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$107.3/t vs US$107.5/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$33,700/t vs US$33,700/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$61,441/t vs US$60,985/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$8,489/t vs US$8,396/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$610/t vs US$610/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$995/t vs US$995/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$408/mtu vs US$408/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$420/t vs US$420/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.0/lb vs US$5.1/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.6/kg vs US$24.8/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$361/t vs US$361/t

Global Rutile Spot Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,465/t vs US$1,465/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$365.0/t vs US$365.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$2,845.0/kg vs US$2,825.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

Battery News

Tesla planning to leave Chinese dependence with full in-house battery production planned

• Tesla is attempting to remove China from its US supply chain and is looking to take battery production in-house for its US-manufactured products.
• The roadmap is not all that simple as the automaker still need to transition to refining its own lithium, making cathode active materials, coating electrodes in-house, and assembling batteries entirely on its premises and at a commercial scale.
• Tesla is reportedly targeting about 10GWh of new domestic LFP capacity, but that volume could supply roughly 25% of the 40GWh needed for US Megapack production.

Company News

Anglo American (AAL LN) 2,250p, Mkt Cap £27m – De Beers sale starts, with interest from ex-CEOs and Michael O’Keefe

• Bloomberg reports that Anglo American has started the formal sales process for De Beers.
• The article suggests there have been several indications of interest, including two former CEO’s of De Beers.
• Gareth Penny and Bruce Cleaver are reportedly leading groups to buy the diamond miner.
• Cleaver currently chairs emerald miner Gemfields and Penny is chairman of Ninety One, South African asset manager.
• Addittionally, Michael O’Keefe is also reportedly in discussions.
• O’Keefe built Champion Iron Ore, sold Riversdale to Rio Tinto for $3.7bn and is currently with Burgundy Diamonds who hold the Ekati diamond mine in Canada.
• Anglo wrote the value of the unit down again in February to $4.9bn
• Anglo is reportedly also examining options for an IPO or demerger of De Beers, but Bloomberg reports they are leaning towards a sale.

Andrada Mining (ATM LN) 2.75p, Mkt Cap £46m – Operational Update as focus on cost efficiencies.

• Andrada reports an operational update from their Uis tin mine in Namibia.
• The Company processed 255kt over the quarter (238kt prior quarter) at an average grade of 0.136% Sn (0.141% Sn prior quarter)
• Tin concentrate production increased to 405t from 364t prior quarter, contained tin of 238t vs 233t prior quarter.
• C1 costs of $18.9k/t, slightly higher qoq.
• AISC reported at $28,999/t vs $28,775/t prior quarter.
• Tin price realised at $32,993/t vs $30,839/t prior quarter.
• DMS modifications boosted throughput alongside new shaking tables.
• Company notes plant utilisation of 93% on reduced maintenance downtime.
• Andrada notes Jig plant construction progressing, with initial production due 2H25.
• Pre-concentration circuit commissioning pending as the company re-assesses and re-engineers the front end of the processing plant.
• Increased costs partly reflects higher tin royalty rate.
• Company focused on cost-reduction across operations.

Empire Metals* (EEE LN) 11p, Mkt Cap £73m – Full year results and Pitfield progress

• Empire results for the year ending 31^st December 2024.
• Cash balance of £3.5m with the company raising an additional £4.5m following year-end.
• As of 30^th May, cash balance of £7m.
• Company reports a loss of £4m over the period, partly reflecting an impairment of the Eclipse Gold Project at £1.35m.
• Empire continues to develop the large-scale Pitfield titanium project, with current focus on  metallurgical testwork and MRE drilling.
• The MRE will target the higher-grade titanium mineralisation hosted within the in-situ weathered cap.
• Thomas drilling has returned intercepts averaging 6.2% TiO2 over 54m on average.
• The programme is expected to take four/five weeks.
• Empire continues to strengthen their technical team, with titanium industry experts employed to advance the Project.
• Mining studies are being advanced in conjunction with process design/

Conclusion: Empire’s FY24 results show a strong cash balance to fund the progression of the Pitfield titanium project. Current focus is on delivering an maiden JORC and derisking the flowsheet with bulk-scale metallurgical testwork. This will enable the start of mining studies.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Empire Metals

KEFI Gold and Copper* (KEFI LN) 0.57p, Mkt Cap £53m – FY24 results

• The Company released annual results highlighting progress at the flagship Tulu Kapi Gold Project in Ethiopia as well as a portfolio of assets in Saudi Arabia.
• In Ethiopia, the focus remains on closing the $320m project funding and commence development works.
• Maiden gold production is targeted for 2027.
• In Saudi Arabia, the team continues the strategic review of its 15% stake in GMCO.
• At Hawiah, GMCO is planning to progress development studies along with drilling programmes to upgrade and expand the mineral resource.
• Additionally, exploration will focus on the a recently secured 910km2 EL over the adjacent Wadi Shwa Mineral Belt through its new JV between GMCO/ARTA and Hancock Prospecting.
• At Jibal Qutman, systematic exploration is ongoing to expand the resource while GMCO also considering initial development plans focusing on open pit operation for the oxide part of the deposit.
• PAT was -£5.2m (FY23: -£7.9m).
• Administrative expenses £6.2m (FY24: £3.4m).
• FCF (ex Interest) -£5.8m (FY23: -£5.1).
• Closing cash balance stood a  £0.2m and £0.7m in working capital bridge and bank funding.
• The Company raised ~£12.7m in gross proceeds post reporting period in two placing in January and May (both at 0.55p) covering ~£2.1 in outstanding loans and charges in shares with the balance available to cover its working capital needs.

*SP Angel act as Nomad and Broker to KEFI Gold and Copper

Keras Resources* (KRS LN) – 1.2p, Mkt cap £1.19m – Mobilisation of production at Nayéga manganese mine to drive new income for Keras

(Keras holds 100% of the Diamond Creek phosphate mine in Utah, USA.

Keras has a royalty and fee agreement with the Government of Togo on manganese production from the Nayéga manganese mine in Togo)

• Keras Resources reports CMTP ‘Carrieres Mines Travaux Publics SA’ the mining and logistics contractor at the Nayéga manganese mine in Togo has completed the dry commissioning of the processing plant and has mobilised its mining fleet to the Nayéga mine site.
• CMTP is expected to start mining by end-June and to process ore at an initial rate of 4,000tpm of saleable manganese for the first 3 months starting in July 2025.
• Production should rise to nameplate capacity of 8,000tpm of saleable ore from October.
• Keras hold a 1.5% royalty advisory fee plus 6.0% of gross revenue from the Nayéga mine over the lesser of 3.5 years or 900,000t of beneficiated manganese ore sold.
• The deal with the Togo government should give nearly $0.9m a year at a price of $3.5/dmt for manganese and production of 7,480tpa equating to some $2.6m over three years.
• Manganese ore prices for 38%min FOB South Africa have recently picked up to 3.1-3.25/dmt from US$2.90-3.05/dmt in January.
• Keras is also building up production capacity for value-added organic phosphate production in Utah, USA and has a jv for the production and sale of Phosul® granulate under the PhosAgri Organic banner.

Conclusion:  The mobilisation of the fleet in Togo is great news for Keras. We look forward to news of royalty and fee cheques from the Nayéga mine.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Keras

Taseko Mines (TKO LN) 190p, Mkt Cap £606m – Agreement concerning New Prosperity project, BC

• Copper producer Taseko has reached an Agreement with the Tŝilhqot’in Nation and the Province of British Columbi over the New Prosperity mineral tenures.
• The Agreement ends litigation among the three parties and provides ‘certainty’ over the development of New Prosperity.
• The Company suggests that the ‘Agreement meaningfully advances the goals of reconciliation in British Columbia.’
• Taseko will provide a 22.5% equity interest in New Prosperity to the Tŝilhqot’in Nation following consent of a mineral development proposal.
• Taseko will retain a 77.5% interest in the property.
• Development activity will require consent from the Tŝilhqot’in Nation.
• The project holds a resource of 1,010mt at 0.24% Cu an 0.41g/t Au in M&I Category.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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