{"id":126752,"title":"SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Friday 5th September 2025","publisher":"Share Talk","author":"sharetalk","published":"2025-09-05T10:04:56+00:00","modified":"2025-09-05T10:04:56+00:00","canonical_url":"https://www.share-talk.com/sp-angel-morning-view-todays-market-view-friday-5th-september-2025/","markdown_url":"https://www.share-talk.com/sp-angel-morning-view-todays-market-view-friday-5th-september-2025.md","json_url":"https://www.share-talk.com/sp-angel-morning-view-todays-market-view-friday-5th-september-2025.json","category":"Business & Support Services","categories":["Business & Support Services","SP Angel","Technology","Technology, Media & Telecoms"],"tags":["base metals","battery","china","company news","currencies","Dow Jones Industrials","ENERGY","FRANCE","GERMANY","gold prices","HK Hang Seng","Nikkei 225","Rio Tinto","Shanghai Composite","SP Angel"],"featured_image":"https://i0.wp.com/www.share-talk.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/1753282805972-1.webp?fit=800%2C450&quality=80&ssl=1","format":"news","language":"en-GB","content":"**Iron ore prices continue to climb despite six-month low in China steel output**\n\n**MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below**\n\n**Amarc Resources (AHR CN) – Freeport proceeds with C$75m Stage Two earn-in**\n\n**Elemental Altus (ELE CN) – Merger with EMX Royalty, Tether buys $100m stake**\n\n**Marimaca Copper (MARI CN) – A$80m placement to advance MOD engineering and exploration targets**\n\n**Peak Rare Earths (PEK AU)– Shenghe raises cash offer**\n\n**Iron ore prices continue to climb despite six-month low in China steel output**\n\n- Iron ore prices are holding stronger around $115/t, highest level since March.\n\n- The move higher comes despite a reduction in output from China blast furnace operations.\n\n- Mysteel reports output hit a six-month low over August 29th-September 4th as environmental curbs hit production.\n\n- Hot metal output down 4.7%wow, capacity utilisation at its lowest level since February.\n\n- Additionally, Tangshan mills have reportedly cut output by 30-40%.\n\n- Iron ore consumption reportedly fell 5.2%.\n\n**Gold ($3,550/oz) holds new level after strong rally, focus shifts to NFPs**\n\n- Gold prices have hold their higher ground, although below recent peaks at $3,578/oz.\n\n- The move followed increased concerns over Fed independence, a strong showing of support between BRIC countries over the weekend and weakening US labour data.\n\n- JOLT data showed hiring slowing, whilst ADP data came in below expectations.\n\n- NFPs are today’s focus, with increased anxiety over the strength of the US labour market.\n\n- This has pushed US 10 year yields below 4.2%, their lowest level since April.\n\n**IGTV – The Future of Mining: Gold, Copper, Rare Earths & M&A:  **[https://youtu.be/-G59iOq6x2c?si=z4fVkyHNP9isbOTB](https://spangel.email.streetcontxt.net/platform/al?a=11534116&ad=3220050254&h=fMMImqW&sig=HeZQ0kPhlo7xhsDeyCk9Di2pPhK&v=2&url=https://youtu.be/-G59iOq6x2c?si%3Dz4fVkyHNP9isbOTB)\n\n**The News Forum – The Buck Stops Here: **[https://www.thenewsforum.ca/series/thebuckstopshere](https://spangel.email.streetcontxt.net/platform/al?a=11534116&ad=3220050254&h=Zs0LjPo&sig=J0TKMdnF6Uxu7gCy9xnGyoLaCI5&v=2&url=https://www.thenewsforum.ca/series/thebuckstopshere)\n\n|   |   |   |   |   |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n| **Dow Jones Industrials** |  | **+0.77%** | **at** | **45,621** |\n| **Nikkei 225** |  | **+1.03%** | **at** | **43,019** |\n| **HK Hang Seng** |  | **+1.45%** | **at** | **25,422** |\n| **Shanghai Composite** |  | **+1.24%** | **at** | **3,813** |\n| **US 10 Year Yield (bp change)** |  | **+0.6** | **at** | **4.17** |\n\n**Economics**\n\n**US – Labour numbers are out later today that many expect to support further rate cuts post now fully priced in decision in September.**\n\n- Market estimates are for a 75k reading with inflation rising to 4.3%, the highest level since 2021.\n\n- Private ADP survey showed US hiring slowed in August with 54k new jobs registered, down on 68k forecast.\n\n- The report fell in line with recent data that indicated that the labour market is gradually cooling including less job openings and softer wage gains.\n\n**Department of Justice opened a criminal investigation into Fed Governor Lisa Cook.**\n\n- The case follows findings by federal housing director las month alleging Cook had “falsified bank documents and property records to acquire favourable loan terms, potentially committing mortgagee fraud”.\n\n**Japan – Authorities are raising minimum hourly wage by a record 6.3% to JPY1,121 ($7.56) that should kickstart wage-price cycle.**\n\n- The decision also supports the case for the central bank to keep hiking rates.\n\n- New minimum rate will become effective from October.\n\n**UK – Retail sales growth revised lower for 1H25 on challenges in making seasonal adjustments to account for bank holidays.**\n\n- Updates figures suggest consumers remain wary of spending.\n\n- Retail sales climbed 0.6%mom in July, up on 0.2% forecast.\n\n- However, June figures were marked down to 0.3% from 0.9%.\n\n- May figures were revised to a 1% drop  from a 2.8% decline while April’s strong growth was updated for a decline\n\n**Currencies**\n\n**US$1.1674/eur vs 1.1656/eur previous. Yen 148.22/$ vs 148.27/$. SAr 17.707/$ vs 17.717/$. $1.346/gbp vs $1.343/gbp. 0.654/aud vs 0.653/aud. CNY 7.138/$ vs 7.141/$.**\n\n**Dollar Index 98.11 vs 98.27 previous.**\n\n**Precious metals****:         **\n\n**Gold US$3,550/oz vs US$3,540/oz previous**\n\n**Gold ETFs 93.7moz vs 93.7moz previous**\n\n**Platinum US$1,387/oz vs US$1,408/oz previous**\n\n**Palladium US$1,133/oz vs US$1,142/oz previous**\n\n**Silver US$40.8/oz vs US$40.9/oz previous**\n\n**Rhodium US$7,200/oz vs US$7,300/oz previous**\n\n**Base metals****:   **\n\n**Copper US$9,959/t vs US$9,907/t previous**\n\n**Aluminium US$2,603/t vs US$2,591/t previous**\n\n**Nickel US$15,255/t vs US$15,180/t previous**\n\n**Zinc US$2,858/t vs US$2,838/t previous**\n\n**Lead US$1,990/t vs US$1,993/t previous**\n\n**Tin US$34,630/t vs US$34,320/t previous**\n\n**Energy****:           **\n\n**Oil US$66.8/bbl vs US$66.9/bbl previous**\n\n- Crude oil prices have been under pressure this week ahead of Sunday’s meeting of the eight Opec+ members to decide the next steps after completing an accelerated unwinding of 2.2mb/d of voluntary production cuts over the Summer.\n\n- The EIA estimated w/w US inventory builds of 2.4mb to crude and 1.7mb to distillates, offset by a 3.8mb draw to gasoline stocks, as refinery utilisation fell 0.3% to 94.3% on domestic output of 13.4mb/d.\n\n- US Henry Hub natural gas prices stabilised above $3/mmBtu this week as the EIA reported a 55bcf w/w build to 3,272bcf (+55bcf exp), which is above the seasonal average. Storage inventories were 2.2% below last year and 5.6% above the 5-year average despite LNG exports rising to an record high in August as key plants finished maintenance programmes.\n\n**Natural Gas €32.6/MWh vs €31.9/MWh previous**\n\n**Uranium Futures $76.4/lb vs $76.4/lb previous**\n\n**Bulk****:   **\n\n**Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (cfr Dalian) US$116.8/t vs US$115.1/t**\n\n**Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$455.3/t vs US$457.0/t**\n\n**HCC FOB Australia US$185.0/t vs US$185.0/t**\n\n**Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$109.0/t vs US$109.0/t**\n\n**Other****:  **\n\n**Cobalt LME 3m US$33,335/t vs US$33,335/t**\n\n**NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$83,570/t vs US$84,022/t**\n\n**Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$10,227/t vs US$10,223/t**\n\n**China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$860/t vs US$860/t**\n\n**Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,015/t vs US$1,015/t**\n\n**China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$528/mtu vs US$528/mtu**\n\n**China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$410/t**\n\n**Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.4/lb vs US$5.4/lb**\n\n**Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.7/kg vs US$23.7/kg**\n\n**China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$270/t vs US$270/t**\n\n**China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,100/t vs US$1,099/t**\n\n**Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t**\n\n**Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$350.0/t vs US$350.0/t**\n\n**Germanium China 99.99% US$3,075.0/kg vs US$3,075.0/kg**\n\n**China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg**\n\n**EV & battery news**\n\n**Trump reduces auto tariffs on Japanese vehicles**\n\n- President Trump has signed an executive order reducing auto tariffs on Japanese vehicles from 27.5% to 15%, which will take effect next week.\n\n- Despite the cut, the 15% rate remains six times higher than the pre-April level and will continue to weigh heavily on the smaller Japanese automakers like Mitsubishi, Mazda, and Subaru.\n\n- Mitsubishi, which lacks North American production, has been hit hardest and has seen prices increase by an average of $2,403 per vehicle.\n\n- Mazda has shifted production to Alabama, reduced exports from Mexico, and may strengthen its partnership with Toyota to absorb cost pressure.\n\n- Subaru has removed base models from its lineup and raised prices to cope with rising costs.\n\n|   |   |   |   |   |   |\n| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |\n|  | **Overnight Change** | **Weekly Change** |  | **Overnight Change** | **Weekly Change** |\n| **BHP** | -0.9% | -3.7% | **Freeport-McMoRan** | -0.3% | 5.0% |\n| **Rio Tinto** | 0.9% | 1.5% | **Vale** | 0.5% | 0.1% |\n| **Glencore** | 0.8% | -1.6% | **Newmont Mining** | -0.7% | 3.4% |\n| **Anglo American** | 0.9% | 0.1% | **Fortescue** | 1.1% | -2.2% |\n| **Antofagasta** | 0.5% | 0.6% | **Teck Resources** | -2.8% | -0.3% |\n\n**Company news**\n\n**Amarc Resources (AHR CN) C$0.85, Mkt Cap C$191m – Freeport proceeds with C$75m Stage Two earn-in at Joy**\n\n- Canadian copper-gold explorer Amarc announced yesterday that Freeport will advance with Stage Two of the earn-in.\n\n- Freeport has now completed the C$35m stage one exploration spend on Joy.\n\n- Freeport now holds 60% of the JV and Stage Two will earn an additional 10%.\n\n- The AuRORA deposit currently being targeted is a copper-gold-silver.\n\n- Initial results included 82m at 1.08% CuEq from 18m.\n\n- The Company expects continuity along strike and at depth.\n\n**Elemental Altus (ELE CN) C$2.05, Mkt Cap C$506m – Merger with EMX Royalty, Tether buys $100m shares**\n\n- Royalty and streaming company Elemental Altus will acquire all outstanding common shares of EMX.\n\n- Concurrently, Tether will purchase 75m Elemental Altus shares at C$1.84/share for US$100m.\n\n- The pro-forma entity will have 16 producing royalties generating US$80m in revenue next year.\n\n- The portfolio will be split 67% precious metals and 33% base metals.\n\n- The subscription from Tether will provide ‘*the ability to pursue further valuable growth through acquisitions.’*\n\n- EMX shareholders to receive a 21.5% premium to 20 day VWAP.\n\n- EMX brings Tether the long-life Timok royalty, triples their ownership of the Caserones royalty and adds assets in North America, South America and Europe.\n\n**Marimaca Copper (MARI CN) C$10.1, Mkt Cap C$1.1bn – A$80m placement to advance MOD engineering and exploration targets**\n\n- Marimaca announces it is raising A$80m at A$9.55/share.\n\n- Net proceeds will be used to progress the Marimaca Oxide Deposit to FID, exploration at Pampa Medina and the Marimaca sulphide target.\n\n- Management notes ‘*strong support from high-quality investors.’*\n\n- Marimaca released the MOD DFS which outlined an open pit, heap leach and SX-EW operation.\n\n- DFS highlights:\n\n14mtpa ore stacked at 0.42% Cu\n\n- 72% recoveries for 43ktpa LOM average Cu.\n\n- LOM strip ratio of 0.82:1\n\nEconomics:\n\n- $587m development CAPEX and $529m LOM SUSEX\n\n- LOM AISC of $2.29/lb and C1 costs of $1.84/lb.\n\n- Post-tax NPV8 of $709m at $4.3/lb.\n\n- IRR of 31%.\n\n- AT NPV8 of $1.1bn at $5.05/lb Cu for 39% IRR and $347m at $3.5/lb for IRR of 21%.\n\nGoing forward, Marimaca is focused on grade control, further metallurgical optimisation work, early site preparation and growth at Pampa Medina.\nPermitting:\n\n- Company expects one further follow-up round of questions and information requests, with environmental approvals expected end of 2026.\n\nFunding:\n\n- Marimaca held $24m in cash in June, and has begun the debt financing process for the MOD project.\n\n- Company notes expressions of interest up to $500m.\n\n- Debt financing package expected in 2025.\n\n**Peak Rare Earths (PEK AU) A$0.42, Mkt Cap A$181m – Shenghe raises cash offer**\n\n- Shenghe Resources agreed to increase its cash offer price to A$195m for 100% in the Company.\n\n- New offer amounts to A$0.443 per share.\n\n- The revision implies a 23% increase over A$158m offered in May.\n\n- Shenghe confirmed that the offer is its best and final proposal.\n\n- The Board recommended the offer.\n\n**LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:**\n\n**No.1 in Precious Metals: ****SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025**\n\n**No.1 in Precious Metals: ****SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024**\n\n**No.2 in Base Metals: ****SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024**\n\n**Analysts**\n\n**John Meyer –****[John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk](mailto:John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk)**** – 0203 470 0490**\n\n**Simon Beardsmore – **[Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk](mailto:Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk)** ****– 0203 470 0484**\n\n**Sergey Raevskiy –****[Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk](mailto:Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk)**** – 0203 470 0474**\n\n**Arthur Parish – ****[Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk](mailto:Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk)**** – 0203 470 0476**\n\n**Sales**\n\n**Richard Parlons –****[Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk](mailto:Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk)**** – 0203 470 0472**\n\n**Abigail Wayne –****[Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk](mailto:Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk) ****– 0203 470 0534**\n\n**Rob Rees –**[Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk ](mailto:Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk)**– 0203 470 0535**\n\n**Grant Barker ****– ****Grant.Barker[@spangel.co.uk ](mailto:Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk%20-)****– 0203 470 0471**\n\n**George Krokos – [george.krokos@spangel.co.uk](mailto:george.krokos@spangel.co.uk)** **– 0203 470 0486**\n\nPrince Frederick House\n\n35-39 Maddox Street\n\nLondon, W1S 2PP\n\n*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide *(joint brokerships excluded)*\n\n**+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.**\n\n|   |   |\n| --- | --- |\n| Sources of commodity prices |   |\n| Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver | BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London) |\n| Gold ETFs, Steel | Bloomberg |\n| Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt | LME |\n| Oil Brent | ICE |\n| Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore | NYMEX |\n| Thermal Coal | Bloomberg OTC Composite |\n| Coking Coal | SSY |\n| RRE | Steelhome |\n\n-\n\n|   |   |\n| --- | --- |\n| Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, Rutile | Asian Metal |\n|  |  |\n\n**DISCLAIMER**\n\nThis note is a marketing communication and comprises non-independent research. This means it has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination.\n\nThis note is intended only for distribution to Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties as defined under the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority and is not directed at Retail Clients.\n\nThis note is confidential and is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published in whole or in part, for any purpose.\n\nThis note has been issued by SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP (‘SPA’) to promote its investment services. Neither the information nor the opinions expressed herein constitutes, or is to be construed as, an offer or invitation or other solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell investments. The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is wholly accurate or complete. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to change without notice. It is not investment advice and does not take into account the investment objectives and policies, financial position or portfolio composition of any recipient. SPA is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. Where the subject of the research is a client company of SPA we may have shown a draft of the research (or parts of it) to the company prior to publication to check factual accuracy, soundness of assumptions etc.\n\nDistribution of this note does not imply distribution of future notes covering the same issuers, companies or subject matter.\n\nWhere the investment is traded on AIM it should be noted that liquidity may be lower and price movements more volatile.\n\nSPA, its partners, officers and/or employees may own or have positions in any investment(s) mentioned herein or related thereto and may, from time to time add to, or dispose of, any such investment(s).\n\nSPA is registered in England and Wales with company number OC317049.  The registered office address is Prince Frederick House, 35-39 Maddox Street, London W1S 2PP.  SPA is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange plc.\n\nMiFID II – Based on our analysis we have concluded that this note may be received free of charge by any person subject to the new MiFID II rules on research unbundling pursuant to the exemptions within Article 12(3) of the MiFID II Delegated Directive and FCA COBS Rule 2.3A.19.\n\nA full analysis is available on our website here [http://www.spangel.co.uk/legal-and-regulatory-notices.html](https://spangel.email.streetcontxt.net/platform/al?a=11534116&ad=3220050254&h=HIB4kp7&sig=89lmw04qrI8SCr3XqIBfmD7nb47&v=2&url=http://www.spangel.co.uk/legal-and-regulatory-notices.html). If you have any queries, feel free to contact our Compliance Officer, Tim Jenkins ([tim.jenkins@spangel.co.uk](mailto:tim.jenkins@spangel.co.uk)).\n\nSPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return\n\nSP Angel Corporate Finance LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange."}