SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Friday 29th September 2023

Copper and nickel rise as China starts to resolve property development crisis

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Arc Minerals* (ARCM LN) – Interims

Bluejay Mining* (JAY LN) 0.99p, Mkt cap £11m – Interims

Cornish Metals* (CUSN LN) – Interim report confirms plan to complete South Crofty dewatering within 18 months

Empire Metals* (EEE LN) – Interim Results

GreenRoc Mining* (GROC LN) – Amitsoq update

KEFI Gold and Copper* (KEFI LN) – Interim Results

Keras Resources* (KRS LN) – Interims show cash from Togo and phosphate sales from Diamond Creek in Utah

Kodal Minerals* (KOD LN) – Long-stop date extended to 31 October 2023

Lithium Power International (LPI AU) – Discussions with CODELCO over potential transaction

Oriole Resources* (ORR LN) – Interim Results as Project Financing discussions continue

Orosur Mining* (OMI LN) – Exploration progress in Colombia, Argentina and Brazil

Premier African Minerals (PREM LN) – CEO optimistic that Zulu will start shipments in November

Savannah Resources* (SAV LN) – BUY, 21p – Interim report describes commercial and technical progress for the Barroso Lithium Project, Portugal

SolGold* (SOLG LN) – Focus on reducing the capital needs and reducing risk to develop Cascabel squeezes exploration

Sovereign Metals* (SVML LN) – Annual report highlights progress at Kasiya rutile and graphite project in Malawi

IGTV: Copper will still move up despite a gear shift down in carbon-zero targets  https://youtu.be/jbywf2hmEU8?si=yxJcwGiE1_V121Ok

VOX:    https://audioboom.com/posts/8372001-john-meyer-discusses-heat-pumps-the-energy-transition-plus-bluejay-jay-kodal-kod-savannah-sav

https://audioboom.com/posts/8368469-john-meyer-on-chinese-stimulus-plus-arc-bushveld-cornish-metals-empire-metals-tertiary-min

*SP Angel almost invariably acts as nomad or broker or nomad and broker to companies mentioned in the above videos and podcasts. We speak more about these companies as we have a good understanding of their business and can talk with a greater degree of confidence. As ever, however, it should be noted that our views do not take into account the circumstances and needs of any particular investor or investor type. So enjoy the talks, but please do your own research, including other companies not mentioned by us but operating in the same areas, and get professional advice where appropriate.

Currencies

US$1.0590/eur vs 1.0512/eur previous. Yen 148.89/$ vs 149.32/$. SAr 18.869/$ vs 19.194/$. $1.225/gbp vs $1.215/gbp. 0.647/aud vs 0.637/aud. CNY 7.298/$ vs 7.305/$. Dollar Index 105.87 vs 106.57 previous.

Commodity News

Precious metals:

Gold US$1,870/oz vs US$1,877/oz previous

Gold ETFs 88.1moz vs 88moz previous

Platinum US$918/oz vs US$893/oz previous

Palladium US$1,283/oz vs US$1,230/oz previous

Silver US$23.03/oz vs US$23/oz previous

Rhodium US$4,100/oz vs US$4,100/oz previous

Base metals:

Copper US$ 8,317/t vs US$8,143/t previous

Aluminium US$ 2,309/t vs US$2,254/t previous

Nickel US$ 19,065/t vs US$18,950/t previous

Zinc US$ 2,654/t vs US$2,519/t previous

Lead US$ 2,195/t vs US$2,158/t previous

Tin US$ 24,800/t vs US$25,610/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$95.1/bbl vs US$97.2/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices continued their strength into the weekend buoyed by inventory data, aided by what some market commentators have suggested is a deliberate short squeeze at Cushing.
• US natural gas prices rose again despite the EIA storage report detailing a 90bcf build to 3,359bcf (vs +80bcf exp) last week, with storage levels decreasing to 13.4% above last year and 6% above the 5-year average.
• Separately, the EIA reported that the operating efficiency of new combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) electric power plants had increased the average capacity factor of the US fleet from 40% in 2008 to 57% in 2022.

Natural Gas €39.650/MWh vs €40.650/MWh previous

Uranium UXC US$70/lb vs US$65.50/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$119.1/t vs US$115.8/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$540.3/t vs US$539.7/t

Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$131.0/t vs US$129.5/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$161.0/t vs US$161.5/t

Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$321.0/t vs US$324.0/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$33,420/t vs US$33,420/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$71,252/t vs US$70,976/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$21,033/t vs US$21,012/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$2,290/t vs US$2,290/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,027/t vs US$1,020/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$305/mtu vs US$305/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$645/t vs US$645/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% 6.6/lb vs US$6.6/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% 29.25/kg vs US$29.25/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$316/t vs US$316/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$86.7/t vs US$86.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$350.0/t vs US$350.0/t

Battery News

Tesla is working on an upgrade to its “gigacasting” technology

• Tesla is working on the die casting of almost all vehicle underbody parts into a single casting.
• This process has already been used to mold the front and rear structures of its Model Y, resulting in significant production cost reductions.
• Tesla’s Shanghai factory has been die casting the rear of the Model Y since 2020, leading to a 40% reduction in related costs.
• Chinese EV manufacturers Xpeng and Geely’s Zeekr are adopting similar “gigapressing” technology to reduce vehicle weight and production costs.

Tesla deals with Ford and GM push charging network towards US standard

• The two legacy automakers have signed deals with Tesla for the use of Tesla’s supercharging network.
• Ford and GM owners will gain access to 12,000 of Tesla’s Superchargers as part of the deal.
• The deals now make Tesla’s charging model the standard in the US among the largest American automakers.
• It will pressure competitors to ditch the primary competing standard, known as CCS.

Ford to get $9.2bn in government funding for battery factories

• The conditional loan is the largest government backing for a US automaker since the 2009 financial crisis.
• It marks a pivotal moment in Biden’s aggressive industrial policy meant to help American manufacturers catch up to China in green technologies.
• The new factories will support Ford’s expansion through the joint venture BlueOvalSK, with South Korean battery maker SK On.
• Ford plans to produce 2m EVs by 2026 – up from roughly 132,000 it produced in 2022

UK introduce flexible quota system to encourage increase adoption of EVs from automakers

• The new guidelines come of the back of Rishi Sunak’s decision to delay the phasing out of combustion-engine cars to 2035.
• Carmakers will be able to avoid penalties of up to £15,000 per vehicle thanks to a credit-based system, allowing them to make up for slow sales of EVs early on by selling more in future years.

Coke Canada Unveils Electric Trucks with Volvo

• The launch makes Coke Canada Bottling the first food and beverage manufacturer in Canada to use electric Class 8 trucks.
• The company aims to reduce carbon emissions from primary sources and consumed energy by 46.2% by 2030.
• The launch ceremony was hosted at the company’s distribution hub in east Montreal, with various stakeholders showing their endorsement of the move.
• Alongside electric trucks, the company is working on enhancing fuel efficiency by electrifying light-duty service vehicles and exploring alternate fuel sources.
• Coke Canada Bottling’s move to electric trucks demonstrates corporate eco-leadership amid a global green shift.

Scania Unveils Solar-Powered Truck

• Scania has unveiled a project to create a solar-powered truck with electrical propulsion generated from solar cells on a trailer.
• The project stemmed from the decreasing cost, weight reduction, and increased energy density of lithium-ion batteries used in battery-electric trucks.
• The hybrid truck features a 100-kilowatt-hour energy storage unit and is connected to a trailer with supplementary batteries, which is recharged by the solar panel unit.
• The commercial application of the solar-powered truck is still years away.
• The project demonstrates the potential of solar cell technology in the transportation sector.

Company News

Arc Minerals* (ARCM LN) 2.6p, Mkt Cap £32m – Interims

BUY – CLICK FOR PDF

(Arc holds 67% of Unico Minerals Limited with 33% held by Kopara Investments. Arc effectively holds 72.5% of Zaco, 66% of Handa in Zambia and 66% of Cheyeza license. Arc also holds 75% in Alvis-Crest (Proprietary) Limited which holds two licenses in the Kalahari Copper Belt, known as Virgo covering >210km2, around 10km south east the recently commissioned Khoemacau Copper in Botswana.)

• Arc Minerals reports interim statements to end June 2023.

• The statement show £2.2m of administrative expenses for the first six months of the year.
• Arc is an exploration company with no revenues leading to a total comprehensive loss of £3.3m after consideration £53,000 of currency gains and £49,000 of unrealised losses.
• Cash: The company held £60,000 in cash and cash equivalents at end June.
• Arc is carrying £106,000 worth of shareholder loans.
• Management continue to work towards the completion of a binding Joint Venture agreement with Anglo American which is dependent on completion of extensive due diligence by Anglo American and its lawyers.
• The Zambian Minister of Mines recently commented in a video interview that he has been busy signing license transfers in relation to the deal, though the deal still requires approval from other ministries.
• When complete Anglo will hold 70% of Arc’s Zambian licenses with Arc and its partners holding 30% through Unico Minerals Ltd.
• Arc will hold a 69% interest Unico.
• Anglo American has the right to retain an Ownership Interest of 51%, by:
  • Funding $24m of exploration expenditures by the end of Phase 1 which is within three years and 180 days of signing
  • Making cash payments to Unico totalling up to USD 14,500,000, as follows:
  • US$ 3,500,000 upon signing of the Joint Venture Agreement and satisfying the conditions precedent;
  • US$ 1,000,000 on the first anniversary of the Effective Date;
  • US$ 1,000,000 on the second anniversary of the Effective Date;
  • US$ 1,000,000 on the third anniversary of the Effective Date; and
  • US$ 8,000,000 by the Phase I End Date.
• Following the completion of Phase I, Anglo American will have the right to retain an additional ownership interest equal to 9% to get to 60% by funding US$ 20m of additional exploration expenditures within 2 years of the Phase I end date.
• Anglo American can also earn an additional 10% to get to 70% of another US$ 30m within 2 years of the Phase II End Date.
• Arc’s authorised share capital of the company is: 1,225,744,782 shares.

Conclusion:  Arc’s deal with Anglo American is moving slowly forwards but remains subject to key approvals from the Zambian government.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and broker to Arc Minerals. An SP Angel analyst has driven across the Zambian copper belt, flying the British flag, to visit Arc’s licenses West of Solwezi.

Bluejay Mining* (JAY LN) 0.99p, Mkt cap £11m – Interims

(Bluejay Mining holds 100% of the Hammaslahti and Enonkoski projects and all its Greenland prospects)

• Bluejay Mining report interim results for the six months to end-June 2023.
  • Cost of sales came in at £31,033
  • Admin expenses rose to £932,792
  • FX losses rose to £70,355
  • Other income fell to £165,851 due to reduced fees on jv workflow
  • Currency translation differences rose to £906,601
  • Total comprehensive loss rose to £1.57m
• Funding:  US$1.65m was raised through issue of new shares

Project work flow:

• Enonkoski (Finland): follow-up drilling at the Laukunlampi target
• Hammaslahti (Finland): drilling ongoing, assays due shortly. Hammaslahti formerly produced 7mt of high-grade copper-zinc-silver-gold ore
• Outokumpu (Finland) deemed a potentially short term value producing prospect.
• Kangerluarsuk (Greenland): refined drill-ready targets for drilling next summer. Management reckon there is a large-scale mineralised system as indicated by compelling chip samples showing 41.1% zinc and 45.5% lead and grab samples of 9.3% lead, 1.2% copper and 596g/t.
• The team believe the prospect may host a major palaeoproterozoic sedimentary basin which also hosts the former Black Angel Zinc-Lead-Silver Mine which produced 11mt of ore at 12.6% zinc, 4.1% lead and 29 g/t silver.
• Disko-Nuussuaq (Greenland): Assessment by KoBold metals has highlighted targets for drilling.
• Dundas (Greenland): the ilmenite project has been downgraded due to its reduced JORC resource. Management are looking for a jv partner but the project is no longer deemed core to the Bluejay portfolio largely due to its reduced profit potential.
• ‘Metals One shares: Bluejay currently hold ~29% of Metals One shares which started trading on AIM on 31^st July at 4.5p/s. The shares are now trading at 4.00p and Bluejay’s stake is currently worth around £2.4m.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Bluejay Mining. The analyst has visited the historic Enonkoski mine site and holds shares in Bluejay Mining

Cornish Metals* (CUSN LN) – 11.25p, Mkt cap £60m – Interim report confirms plan to complete South Crofty dewatering within 18 months

CLICK FOR PDF

• In its unaudited results for the six months to 31^st July Cornish Metals reports a loss of C$0.89m (2022 – C$3.25m loss) and a closing cash balance of C$39.90m following investment of C$15.62m as the company moves towards a decision on a resumption of mining at the South Crofty mine in Cornwall.
• Commenting on operational developments, the company highlights:
  • The publication, earlier this month, of the updated mineral resources showing a “31.6% increase to contained tin in the Indicated Mineral Resource category” in the Lower Mine area; and
  • The installation of pumps in the New Cooks Kitchen shaft to de-water the flooded workings and the completion of the water treat plant where commencement of the wet-commissioning was announced yesterday; and
  • Drilling for metallurgical samples as part of the South Crofty Feasibility Study – due for completion by the end of 2024 has confirmed “existing structures at depth”
  • as well as the start of follow-up drilling to investigate the recently discovered ‘Wide Zone’ of mineralisation located in the Carn Brea area south of South Crofty

• Commenting on the progress during a busy time, CEO, Richard Williams, said that “it is pleasing to see that commencement of dewatering the mine is just round the corner. … [he also confirmed that] … there has been a lot of progress made in planning and preparing for the re-accessing of the mine which will take place in parallel with mine dewatering”.
• Mr. Williams explained that “we remain focussed on our objective to complete the dewatering of South Crofty within the next 18 months”.

Conclusion: The commissioning of the water treatment plant at South Crofty keeps plans to de-water the old mine within 18 months on track and in line with completion of a feasibility study on a resumption of mining which expected to be completed by the end of 2024.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Cornish Metals. An SP Angel analyst formerly worked in the South Crofty tin mine in the 1980s and holds shares in Cornish Metals.

Empire Metals* (EEE LN) 4.26p, Mkt Cap £21m – Interim Results

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(Empire holds a 70% interest in the Pitfield prospect 313km north of Perth, WA)

• Empire Metals reports their interim results for the period to 30^th June 2023.
• The Company had £1m in cash at the time of reporting, but following an oversubscribed placing last week, will hold £3.8m in cash.
• Empire is progressing the Pitfield Project in Western Australia, where they recently recorded high-grade TIO2 mineralisation at intercepts over 150m.
• The Company is currently executing a diamond core drilling campaign before a second, larger scale RC campaign over a more extensive section of the 40kmm x 8km anomaly.
• Management believes Pitfield is a ‘company maker’ asset and holds flagship status for the Company.
• Aside from Pitfield, Empire’s Walton project on the Yerilgee belt in WA is set to see an initial exploration campaign at Walton in early 2024, including mapping and geochemical sampling.
• Airborne geophysical programmes are anticipated for the Stavely Project in Victoria.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Empire Metals

GreenRoc Mining* (GROC LN) 4.27p, Mkt Cap £6.3m – Amitsoq update

• GreenRoc Miniing has updated the market on progress at its Amitsoq graphite project in the south of Greenland.
• The team are working on a Preliminary Economic Assessment for the reopening and development of the Amitsoq mine.
• The PEA should be published in October and
• A number of graphite samples are to be sent to potential offtakers and interested parties for testing in the fourth quarter.
• A bulk sample is being processed in Germany by UVR-FIA Gmbh.
• Management see growing interest in non-Chinese sources of graphite from offtakers presumably for new, planned Western Gigafactories
• PEA parameters:
  • 400,000t of ore output for
  • ~80,000t of graphite concentrate
• Amitsoq: JORC Inferred Mineral Resource to be 23.05mt grading 20.41% Gc ‘Graphitic Carbon’ with a total graphite content of 4.71mt including:
  • 1.26mt of Measured Resource,
  • 6.12mt Indicated Resource from 2.04mt – a 200% increase over the 2022 MRE,
  • 15.67mt Inferred Resource from 6.24mt to – a c.150% increase over the 2022 MRE,
  • Total: 23.05mt grading 20.41% GC at a cut-off grade of 0% Gc.

*SP Angel acts as broker to GreenRoc Mining

KEFI Gold and Copper* (KEFI LN) 0.70p, Mkt Cap £35m – Interim Results

• Kefi reports their interim results for the period to 30^th June 2023.
• Kefi held £389k at the time of reporting in cash but has repaid all debts following a £7.2m equity placing.
• The Company is currently progressing the Tulu Kapi project and notes that it ‘has now assembled, together with regional financiers, both the debt and equity development capital of $320m.’
• Management considers Tulu Kapi to be ‘essentially fully permitted,’ and is now awaiting final credit committee and board approvals from its financiers and investors.
• A formal protest has been lodged with the Ethiopian Minister of Mines regarding the upcoming administrative proceedings of Exploration licences surrounding Tulu Kapi.
• The Company updated the Hawiah MRE to 29mt @ 0.89% Cu, 0.94% Zn and delivered a maiden Al Godeyar Project.
• Going forward, Kefi is targeting first production at Tulu Kapi and Jibal Qutman Gold for end-2025, with first production at Hawiah Copper-Gold targeted for 2027.
• Underground development project launch for Tulu Kapi and Hawiah is being targeted for 2026 with first production in 2028.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to KEFI Gold and Copper

Keras Resources* (KRS LN) – 3.9p, Mkt cap £3.32 – Interims show cash from Togo and phosphate sales from Diamond Creek in Utah

(Keras holds 100% of the Diamond Creek phosphate mine in Utah, UASA. Keras also holds an 85% interest in Societé General des Mines for the Nayéga manganese project in Togo)

• Keras reports their half yar results for the period to 30^th June 2023.
• The Company sold 2.2kt phosphate vs 1.9kt for the period, with output limited by heavy rains and flooding in Utah. YTD sales stand at 3.45kt.
• The mining season has begun and Spanish Fork and processing is underway.
• Keras is working on forming contracts with fertiliser blenders with testwork on rock phosphate from Diamond Creek.
• In Togo, management report positive discussions ongoing with the government over the Nayéga development.
• Cash balance at the end of the period stood at £39k, although there were £1.6m worth of trade and other receivables on account.
• Following the reporting period, Keras received a $1.7m cash consideration from the republic of togo, paying $800k to Falcon Isle holdings and $240k worth of severance to the former CEO of the Company.
• Going forward, Keras ‘remains very positive about the future of Diamond Creek and the fertiliser market macro-economic conditions that underpin its future.’

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Keras

Kodal Minerals* (KOD LN) 0.53p, Mkt Cap £88m – Long-stop date extended to 31 October 2023

(Kodal / Hainan jv deal long-stop date to 30 September 2023)

• Kodal Minerals reports the extension of the Long-Stop date for the completion of its deal with Hainan Mining to 31 October 2023.
• Management have completed the restructuring of the Mali subsidiary companies which hold the lithium licenses.
• The team have also completed the registration of the new mining company, ‘Le Mines de Lithium de Bougouni SA’ owned 100% by KMUK.
• Kodal has also registered Bougouni Mining SA, which will be the operator of the Bougouni lithium mine.
  • Kodal is continuing to work with the Mali Government to finalise the remaining compliance items that will complete the conditions precedent to complete the funding package. 
• Hainan Mining representatives have also met with the minister of mines.
• Both Kodal and Hainan are reported to receive strong support for the development and acknowledgement on the good standing of the Bougouni Mining (Exploitation) licence.
• Site works and road upgrades have started in preparation for construction of site infrastructure with Kodal and Hainan on site in Bougouni.

Conclusion:  The length of corporate restructuring and approval process is frustrating but we have faith that the deal will eventually complete

*SP Angel acts as financial advisor and broker to Kodal Minerals

Lithium Power International (LPI AU) A$0.36, Mkt cap A$226m – Discussions with CODELCO over potential transaction

• Lithium Power International reports the company is in discussions with CODELCO, the Chilean state mining company over a potential transaction..
• Reuters reports,.Codelco is undertaking due diligence and has access to the books at Lithium Power International.
• The government of Chile has previously announced it wanted to nationalise the Chilean lithium industry.
• There are only a handful of serious lithium explorers in Chile with licenses covering the various Salars (lithium-brine-bearing salt lakes.
• We feel ,it makes more sense for the Chilean government to acquire these companies for future development rather than risk international condemnation through their expropriation.
• CODELCO which directly funds the Chilean military through a 20% royalty on its mines, is looking to acquire controlling interests and partner with existing companies on their future development.
• The proposed CODELCO model should help with access to capital while preserving management expertise.

Oriole Resources* (ORR LN) 0.080p, Mkt cap £3.2m – Interim Results as Project Financing discussions continue

CLICK FOR PDF

• Oriole provides their interim results to 30^th June 2023.
• The Company held  £0.19m in cash at the time of reporting but has subsequently signed a financing agreement with Lanstead.
• The Lanstead agreement provides funding to Oriole dependent on the share price, with the Company noting the first Lanstead payment of £30k for September has been received.
• Operationally, Oriole is in discussions with potential development partners for the Bibemi project, with progressing towards the application for an exploitation licence in 2024.
• At the Central Licence Package, the exploration team continued to deliver high-grade gold rock chip samples up to 8.5g/t Au.
• Oriole is looking to begin a maiden drilling programme at the CLP over the next field season.
• Furthermore, Oriole’s discussions with a Canadian investment banking firm for project-level exploration financing at the CLP is ongoing, with site visits being conducted in October and an update due in Q4.
• At Wapouzé, Oriole is working towards developing recently discovered limestone for delivery to the £700m Cameroonian cement industry.
• Oriole’s Senala asset, currently held by Managem following their acquisition of IAMGOLD, is set to see a 2,000m diamond drilling programme before the end of the year.

*SP Angel acts as Broker to Oriole Resources

Orosur Mining* (OMI LN) 2.55p, Mkt Cap £4.6m – Exploration progress in Colombia, Argentina and Brazil

• Orosur Mining reports a loss of US$1.8m for the year to 31^st May (2022 – US$1.1m loss) and a closing cash balance of US$3.7m – currently US$2.9m.

• The company says that, following “Reasonable grades of gold were intercepted in two of the holes” drilled at its APTA project in Colombia, the focus of its drilling has “shifted to Pepas and Pupino … [where] … a substantial, high-grade intersection of 150.9m @ 3.00g/t Au (from surface)” was drilled in hole PEP001,
• Results from “four additional diamond drill holes at Pepas and Pupino” included an intersection of 80.55m at an average grade of 3.05g/t gold from surface in hole PEP007 although a subsequent 2 holes, announced in December (PEP002 and 006) “did not yield significant results”.

• Holes PEP008 and 009 “intersected mineralised structures, largely as expected, but with lower levels of gold mineralisation than intersected in previous drilling. Near term focus will now shift away from drilling to field mapping, sampling and trenching activities will continue across the Project to define further drilling targets”.
• In May, the company announced that “Mapping and ground magnetic surveys at El Pantano … [in Argentina] … have identified a major NW-SE structural corridor over 20km long and 5km wide, with large areas of silicification, alteration and geochemical anomalism over large areas”.
• Subsequent mapping north of the main structure “identified over 70 quartz veins over an area in excess of 20km², with textures indicative of cooler temperatures, fully consistent with the model of a very large low-sulphidation epithermal system”.
• Drilling permits have been applied for to advance exploration at El Pantano “should appropriate targets be identified”.
• Early stage exploration including stream sediment sampling in Brazil at its Ariquemes Project  in the Rondonia tin province aims to “form the basis for more targeted exploration programs in the near term”.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Orosur Mining

Premier African Minerals (PREM LN) 0.52p, Mkt Cap £125m – CEO optimistic that Zulu will start shipments in November

• Premier African Minerals reports a loss of $7.5m for the six months to 30^th June (2022 – $4.9m loss) and a cash balance at 30^th June of $0.23m.
• Chief Executive, George Roach, explained that “The six months to 30 June 2023 have been difficult and this has been widely reported in various announcements over the past 4 months”.
• Expressing optimism for the future Mr. Roach said that he believed that “this will be the last time that I potentially report Interim Results that do not include details of cash generative operations”.
• Commenting on the difficulties experienced at the Zulu lithium project in Zimbabwe he said that “The plant did not achieve name plate throughput production as per the original design and our relationship with Canmax Technologies Co. Ltd (“Canmax”) came under severe duress. That said, the outcome in the past month has the hallmarks of setting aside all that disappointment and with the completion of the installation of the RHA mill and restarting operations in the latter part of September 2023, we expect to meet the production target for shipments in November 2023”.
• He commented, however, that “Premier received continued financial support from its shareholders and Canmax throughout the period”.
• The company has previously said that “Open pit mining operations at Zulu are expected to resume … and while there is already substantial material on the run-of-mine pad, it remains critical that the plant has sufficient ore for current processing”.
• Earlier this year, it emerged that the 40tph pilot plant at Zulu had suffered construction delays and reports were issued that the plant required modifications to achieve its design performance, so it is encouraging to see progress on rectifying these issues.

Savannah Resources* (SAV LN)3.4p, Mkt Cap £62m – Interim report describes commercial and technical progress for the Barroso Lithium Project, Portugal

BUY – 21.1p

• Savannah Resources reports a loss of £1.5m over the six-months ending 30^th June (2022 – £1.3m loss) and a closing cash balance of £4.8m which has subsequently “increased to £11.4m in July 2023 via the successful completion of a £6.5m equity fundraise”.
• The results include a “28% reduction in administrative expenses to £1.4m … [resulting from] … continuing prudent cost management”.
• The company highlights the completion, in June, of a new scoping study for the Mina do Barroso lithium project which showed a “net present value at an 8% discount rate of US$953m , internal rate of return of 77%, and payback period of just 1.3 years”.
• Savannah Resources confirms is expectation that it will complete a Definitive Feasibility Study for the project “in the second half of 2024”.
• “In parallel with the DFS, Savannah will also be continuing with its decarbonisation study work … [where preliminary work] … announced in February … showed that battery powered electric mining equipment will provide the most effective and flexible means to reduce Scope 1 emissions at the Project to zero. It also concluded that a number of viable options are available to secure 100% renewable energy supply to the Project including regional solar and wind generation”.

• Savannah Resources confirms that it is expanding its team “to move the Project towards a final investment decision … [and that] … there has been additional interest in the Project and potential partnership collaborations with Savannah from groups across the lithium value chain”.

• Chairman, Matthew King, explained that significant progress “to de-risk the Project have been made in the first half of 2023 and more are expected to follow over the coming months”.
• He also highlighted “the European Commission’s Critical Raw Materials Act, which is targeting 10% of European demand to be met by domestic supply by 2030 … [which he expected to provide] … a compelling backdrop to complement Savannah’s investment case”.

Conclusion: Savannah Resources describes commercial and technical progress at its Barroso project and we look forward to completion of the DFS in H2 2024 for a more detailed insight into the development plan.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Savannah Resources

SolGold* (SOLG LN) 13.02p, Mkt Cap £391m – Focus on reducing the capital needs and reducing risk to develop Cascabel squeezes exploration

• In its annual report for the financial year to 30^th June 2023, SolGold reports a loss of US$50m (2022 – US$1.7m loss) and a 30^th June cash balance of US$32.5m as it moves ahead with its efforts at the Cascabel project in Ecuador and to progress its exploration portfolio throughout the country.
• Chairman, Liam Twigger, highlights the mergers with Cornerstone Capital, which consolidates ownership of Cascabel within Solgold.
• He also acknowledges the significance of securing a term sheet for the Exploitation Agreement with Ecuador’s Government saying that it “serves as a blueprint for the mine’s future development and operations”.
• Mr. Twigger also explains “Significant financial undertakings, like the financing from Jiangxi Copper (Hong Kong) Investment Company Limited and the Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd. royalty agreement … [which] … have strengthened our foundation this year”.
• Considering future priorities, the Chairman identifies “a key priority and challenge we acknowledge is securing adequate funding to realize Cascabel’s true potential”.
• CEO, Scott Caldwell, says that Solgold’s “immediate focus is the acquisition of permits for Cascabel … [and explains that Solgold’s] … team is working diligently with the relevant authorities to ensure that all the necessary requisites are met, and we are optimistic about obtaining these permits within the coming year”.
• Mr. Caldwell also describes “the initiation of a revision of the Preliminary Feasibility Study (PFS) for Cascabel, targeted to be complete by first calendar quarter of 2024 … [as another] … significant development”.
• He says that Solgold is now “examining a staged approach to developing the mine. This revised approach prioritizes mining high-grade ore initially at a lower tonnage, thereby reducing initial capital requirements. The subsequent expansions, envisioned to further harness the mine’s potential, will be funded out of operational cash flows”.
• Describing the potential benefits of this development strategy he says that if it can be implemented successfully it “would significantly reduce the initial capital requirements and the development risk, which we believe increases the ability for the Company to finance the development itself, and increases the number of interested parties capable of developing a lower capital-intensive project”.
• Emphasising the focus on Cascabel and the need to conserve capital Solgold says that “all technical and field work was suspended during the period … [on its exploration portfolio in Ecuador although Solgold] … continues to keep all concessions in good standing”.
• A review of the exploration portfolio beyond the Cascabel project area is underway with efforts “to identify potential JV/earn-in collaborators …in motion”. Solgold confirms that “Beyond essential expenditures required to maintain property compliance, we do not currently anticipate significant work agendas for these explorations in FY2024”.

Conclusion: A phased development of Cascabel to reduce the capital requirements and risk profile of the project is prudent and we look forward to the revised PFS early in 2024.  Plans to curtail exploration elsewhere in Ecuador are consistent with a focus on capital conservation and given the quality of the exploration properties we would expect informed interest from potential JV partners or acquirers.

*SP Angel acts as Financial Advisor to SolGold

Sovereign Metals* (SVML LN) 21.75p, Mkt Cap £119m – Annual report highlights progress at Kasiya rutile and graphite project in Malawi

(Sovereign currently holds 100% of the Kasiya project. The government has a right to a 10% free carry in the project)

STRONG BUY

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• Annual report highlights progress at Kasiya rutile and graphite project in Malawi (see pdf link for PFS results).
• Interest income rose to $268,967 from $33,117 yoy
• Exploration expenses came in at $10.6m vs $8.6m yoy
• A significant gain on the demerger of NGX Limited added $9.5m.
• Total comprehensive loss pulled back to $5.9m vs $13.8m yoy.
• Rio Tinto cash injection of A$4.4m in July came after the end of the full year and will add to interest income next year

Conclusion:  Sovereign is working towards the development of a ‘world class’ rutile and graphite deposit. We expect ongoing interest in the Kasiya rutile from potential offtake partners as rutile production falls from Kabwe in Kenya and Sierra Rutile in Sierra Leone.

*SP Angel act as Nomad and broker to Sovereign Metals.  

Investors should note, there is still much to know about the Kasiya Rutile-graphite deposit and while Rio Tinto’s confidence in the project is a major step forward in de-risking the project it is not a complete cast-iron guarantee of success.

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No1. In Gold:  “SP Angel’s trio took the top spot for the gold price prediction throughout the year, with an accuracy score of 97.59%”

The SP Angel team also ranked 1st in Palladium, 3rd in Tin and 5th in Silver in the fourth quarter of 2020

Analysts

John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

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Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

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+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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