Gold climbs on lower US dollar and lessening geopolitical risks
Military junta crackdown on miners will have severe impact on new investment into Mali
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
Oxford Mining Club Winter Drinks – next Monday 2nd December, from 5:00pm
- Oxford Mining Club Winter Drinks
- Waldorf Hilton Hotel, Aldwych, London
- There are a few miners in town and the drinks evening promises to be a major event.
- We are sponsoring so please feel free to contact us for a discount code to the drinks.
- To register for Winter Drinks: https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/the-oxford-mining-club-winter-drinks-reception-tickets-1073600751749?aff=oddtdtcreator
Atlantic Lithium* (ALL LN) – AGM statement highlights progress towards future development of Ewoyaa lithium project in Ghana
Beowulf Mining* (BEM LN) – Quarterly results show progress in Sweden and Finland
Bushveld Minerals* (BMN LN) SUSPENDED – Shareholder loan default
Mkango Resources* (MKA LN) – 3Q24 highlight a cut in a cash burn with momentum building behind the RE magnet recycling business
Resolute Mining* (RSG LN) – Resolute pays Government of Mali a further $50m from existing cash reserves with another $30m due by end 2024 from existing facilities
Mali – Military junta crackdown on miners will have severe impact on new investment into Mali
- The recent shakedown of lithium and gold mining companies in Mali is likely to have a long-lasting impact on mining in the region
- All Companies operating in Mali and now required to transfer to the new 2023 Mining Code established by the current government and is now fully functional.
- A Mining Commission has been established to review the historical mining licences and performances to support the transition to the new code and is resulting in seemingly arbitrary demands for “settlement of disputes”:
- Resolute Mining are paying $160m – three personnel jailed,
- Kodal Minerals paying $15m for the change of control of the Bougouni lithium project,
- Ganfeng to finalise payments for the Goulamina project on top of the amounts previously paid by Leo Lithium
- Barrick Gold to finalise “negotiations” for the Loulo-Gounkotou project and expected significant payment to be levied – we believe 4 personnel were jailed
- The “negotiations” have come with the threat of / or arrest of key staff, with three members of Resolute’s management team detained for 10 days in a windowless room in the political detention area of the Central Prison in Bamako, and currently members of the Barrick Malian Operational team under arrest.
- Mali is continuing to fight a war with insurgents in the northeast of the country and fighting destabilisation in the Sahel region. The funds raised from will be used for military activities.
- Mali is said to be spending $2m a month on security with ‘Wagner Group’ which is now officially part of the Russian Military providing assistance, training and weapons for the fighting in the northeast.
- Military governments in West Africa have created high risk and uncertainty with the expected drop in investment appetite. Counties include:
- Mali
- Burkina Faso
- Niger
Conclusion: Good quality technical staff will avoid the region unless specific guarantees over their safety are made.
Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger are isolating themselves and their populations from Development Agencies, Charities and banking finance while the uncertainty and aggressive approach to industry continues.
Investors will take shorter-term views, and many will avoid the region altogether
| Dow Jones Industrials | closed | |||
| Nikkei 225 | -0.37% | at | 38,208 | |
| HK Hang Seng | +0.29% | at | 19,424 | |
| Shanghai Composite | +0.93% | at | 3,326 | |
| US 10 Year Yield (bp change) | -4.1 | at | 4.22 |
Economics
Japan – The government allocated JPY1.5tn ($9.9bn) in the extra budget for the fiscal year to March for chip and AI projects.
- The additional budget is part of the more than JPY10tn of fresh support PM Shigeru Ishiba pledged for chips and AI by 2030.
Eurozone – Inflation fell more than expected on a monthly basis in November with core measure coming in slightly behind estimates.
- Expectations are for the ECB to cut its borrowing costs by further 25bp from 3.4% at the next meeting mid December.
- CPI (%mom, Nov/Oct/Est): -0.3/0.3/-0.2
- CPI (%yoy, Nov/Oct/Est): 2.3/2.0/2.3
- Core CPI (%yoy, Nov/Oct/Est): 2.7/2.7/2.8
Germany
- Unemployment Change (‘000, Nov/Oct/Est): 7.0/26.0 (revised from 27.0)/20.0
- CPI (%mom, Nov/Oct/Est): -0.7/0.4/-0.5
- CPI (%yoy, Nov/Oct/Est): 2.4/2.4/2.6
France
- CPI (%mom, Nov/Oct/Est): -0.1/0.3/0.0
- CPI (%yoy, Nov/Oct/Est): 1.7/1.6/1.8
UK – Mortgage approvals jumped to 68.3k in October, above the 10y average of ~65k, on expectations for a cut in November.
Turkey – The economy reported a technical recession in 3Q24 as industrial production fell sharply.
- The $1.3tn economy contracted by 0.2%qoq marking the second consecutive decline with 2Q numbers revised downwards.
- Annual growth is now significantly below a pre pandemic average of around 5% reflecting high inflation and interest rate environment.
- GDP (%qoq, 3Q/2Q/Est): -0.2/-0.2 (revised from 0.1)/-0.2
- GDP (%yoy, 3Q/2Q/Est): 2.1/2.4 (revised from 2.5)/2.5
Ukraine/Russia – President Putin is threatening to strike “decision-making centres” in Kyiv with new ballistic missiles in retaliation for attacks on Russia with Western missiles.
- “The Defence Ministry and the General Staff are selecting targets to hit on Ukrainian territory,” Putin said during a regional security meeting in Kazakhstan’s capital Astana on Thursday.
- “These could be military facilities, defence industry enterprises or decision-making centres in Kyiv.”
Currencies
US$1.0574/eur vs 1.0548/eur previous. Yen 150.14/$ vs 151.81/$. SAr 18.059/$ vs 18.233/$. $1.271/gbp vs $1.266/gbp. 0.651/aud vs 0.650/aud. CNY 7.234/$ vs 7.250/$.
Precious metals:
Gold US$2,656/oz vs US$2,644/oz previous
Gold ETFs 83.2moz vs 83.2moz previous
Platinum US$944/oz vs US$938/oz previous
Palladium US$989/oz vs US$986/oz previous
Silver US$30.6/oz vs US$30.0/oz previous
Rhodium US$4,575/oz vs US$4,575/oz previous
Base metals:
Copper US$9,016/t vs US$8,991/t previous
Aluminium US$2,607/t vs US$2,579/t previous
Nickel US$15,990/t vs US$16,075/t previous
Zinc US$3,053/t vs US$3,042/t previous
Lead US$2,076/t vs US$2,046/t previous
Tin US$28,730/t vs US$27,370/t previous
Energy:
Oil US$72.9/bbl vs US$72.7/bbl previous
- Crude oil prices were broadly unchanged as OPEC+ delayed its next policy meeting from Sunday to next Thursday to avoid a scheduling conflict, where the participants are expected to further extend production cuts.
- The EIA reported a 2bcf w/w draw to 3,967bcf, with w/w US gas storage levels falling to 3.5% above last year and 7.2% above the 5-year average, which is a smaller draw than usual for this time in the winter withdrawal season.
Natural Gas €46.0/MWh vs €46.5/MWh previous
Uranium Futures $77.1/lb vs $77.1/lb previous
Bulk:
Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (cfr Tianjin) US$104.6/t vs US$103.8/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$495.9/t vs US$496.2/t
HCC FOB Australia US$204.0/t vs US$204.0/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$138.0/t vs US$138.0/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$24,300/t vs US$24,300/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$57,021/t vs US$57,103/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$10,367/t vs US$10,345/t
China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$790/t vs US$790/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$985/t vs US$985/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$338/mtu vs US$338/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$440/t vs US$440/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.0/lb vs US$4.9/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$26.3/kg vs US$26.3/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$305/t vs US$304/t
China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,127/t vs US$1,124/t
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$64.9/t vs US$64.9/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$287.5/t vs US$287.5/t
Germanium China 99.99% US$2,825.0/kg vs US$2,825.0/kg
China Gallium 99.99% US$430.0/kg vs US$430.0/kg
Company News
| Overnight Change | Weekly Change | Overnight Change | Weekly Change | ||
| BHP | 1.2% | 1.0% | Freeport-McMoRan | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Rio Tinto | 0.9% | 0.9% | Vale | -0.3% | -1.6% |
| Glencore | 0.2% | -1.7% | Newmont Mining | -0.5% | -2.2% |
| Anglo American | 2.9% | 4.3% | Fortescue | 1.6% | 3.7% |
| Antofagasta | 0.3% | 0.8% | Teck Resources | 0.6% | -1.1% |
Atlantic Lithium* (ALL LN) 11.3p, Mkt Cap £69m – AGM statement highlights progress towards future development of Ewoyaa lithium project in Ghana
- Milestones achieved through 2024:
- EPA ‘Environmental Protection Agency’ environmental permit
- Mine Operating Permit and the
- Land Use Certificate
- Completion of the key criteria agreed under the terms of the Mining Lease
- Listing on the Ghana Stock Exchange
- Clay for restart of the Cape Coast pottery industry: Completion and submission of the Feldspar and Downstream Conversion Studies.
- Atlantic is also planning to revamp the defunct Saltpond Ceramics Company in the Mfantseman Municipality,Ghana. This should generate significant new employment in the area.
- Mining Lease: We now expect the final ratification of the Mining Lease by parliament after new parliament is formed
- Cuts: Low lithium prices and the parliamentary delay to the Mining Lease ratification have caused Atlantic to cut staff and other costs with priority given to critical activities.
- Offtake discussions: Management report:
- “We continue to receive considerable demand for product from Ewoyaa from potential offtakers and, as such, remain confident in securing the funding that Atlantic Lithium requires to sufficiently cover its allocation of development expenditure for the Project.”
- Supporting partners:
- MIIF, the ‘Minerals Income Investment Fund’ contributed US$5m. MIIF are the Ghana sovereign wealth fund.
- Assore which has made two previous offers to acquire Altantic Lithium remains supportive and recently supported a A$10m equity placing in October 2024
- Piedmont Lithium Inc. is merging with Sayona Mining Limited which also produces spodumene concentrate.
- We note; Piedmont already had a contract with Sayona for the supply of spodumene concentrate.
- Altantic’s “Ewoyaa staff will spend time at Sayona’s NAL project in Canada, which is currently ramping up production, supporting the leveraging of skills and expertise in lithium mining and processing.”
- Other M&A activity in the sector indicates positioning by some larger entities looking to supply lithium to the Li-ion battery market in future years, including:
- Pilbara Minerals and Latin Resources,
- Rio Tinto and Arcadium Lithium for US$6.7bn. Rio Tinto also Rincon for $860m a year earlier.
- Arcadium bought Li-Metals for US$11m
- Ganfeng consolidated Goulamina
- Hainan Mining invested $117m to acquire 51% of Bougouni.
- SQM & Hancock bought Azure Minerals
- Zijin Mining acquired Neo Lithium for C$960m
- HELM AG, based in Hamburg, Germany acquired LevertonHELM
- Allkem acquired Livent for $3.8bn
- SQM acquired Azure Minerals for $990m
- Honbridge Holdings acquired Tibet Summit Resources HK for $350m
- CODELCO acquired Lithium Power for $228m
- Tecpetrol International acquired Alpha Lithium Corp for $193m
- Albemarle acquired the Kemerton Lithium Hydroxide plant for $400m
- Ongoing projects for Ewoyaa lithium mine development:
- FID, ‘Final Investment Decision’ completion of a number of key activities towards FID.
- DFS ‘Definitive Feasibility Study’ technical refinement and optimisation for Ewoyaa
- EPCM ‘Engineering, Procurement, Construction and Management’ and Mining contracts. In addition, considerable steps have been taken, and will continue to be taken, towards maximising safety across the Company’s operations. The well-being of our employees, contractors and local stakeholders remains of upmost importance to the Company. Across all of its activities, Atlantic Lithium is committed to maintaining practices that ensure the safety of everyone impacted by the Project, which we consider imperative to the Company’s success at Ewoyaa.
- Outlook: Management remain confident that the Ewoyaa project “low-cost profile, driven largely by its proximity to existing infrastructure and the nature of the deposit, will enable it to withstand current lithium prices.”
- Higher cost hard-rock producers are either closing or delaying new projects with significant slowing of investment into lithium exploration and new mine development.
Conclusion: Ewoyaa looks poised to become one of just a few new lithium mining projects to start development next year.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Atlantic Lithium
Beowulf Mining* (BEM LN) 18p, Mkt cap £7m – Quarterly results show progress in Sweden and Finland
- Beowulf announces their quarterly results to 30th September 2024.
- The Company continues to progress their high-grade iron ore project in Sweden, working towards the PFS and Environmental Permit.
- Kallak showed potential for high-grade iron concentrate grading 70% Fe with <2% silica and <0.23% alumina, attractive as a premium steelmaking feedstock.
- The Company guides for the conclusion of the PFS workstreams in 2Q25.
- In Finland, the Company is progressing the Graphite Anode Materials Plant (GAMP) in Finland, with an upgraded PFS expected 1Q25.
- Grafintec has been awarded multiple rounds of grant funding for optimisation of the GAMP project, and has highlighted the ability to recover and recycle >90% of the sodium hydroxide reagent used in purification.
- Infill soil and grab sampling has been conducted in Kosovo at the Shala East licence.
- Administration expenses over the period of £409k, down yoy from £580k
- Company cash balance at the end of the period was £1.8m.
Conclusion: Beowulf’s quarterly results highlight a healthy cash balance that will support their progression towards PFS stage for Kallak, due 2Q25, alongside an upgraded PFS for the GAMP asset in Finland. The delivery of both PFSs should provide a significant milestone to Beowulf and enable the acceleration of discussions with strategic partners and funding opportunities. We look forward to continued development across both projects.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Beowulf Mining
Bushveld Minerals* (BMN LN) SUSPENDED – Shareholder loan default
- The Company has not received ~R14.4m due from Vanchem as part repayment of a shareholder loan balance.
- Repayment was due by 21 November being 14 days post the effective date of Vanchem sale transaction.
- The balance of the shareholder loan amount is due in December 2024.
- The amount due to the Company have been adjusted for an amount of R35m, deemed to have already been repaid by SPR, owing to kiln repairs and a period of non-production.
- The Company disputes the size of claim but agreed, with SPR, to engage an independent consultant to determine the quantum of actual damages.
- The process has not started yet but once finalised deferred consideration due to Bushveld under the Vanchem disposal transaction will be adjusted accordingly.
*SP Angel act as nomad and broker to Bushveld Minerals
Mkango Resources* (MKA LN) 9.4p, Mkt Cap £29m – 3Q24 highlight a cut in a cash burn with momentum building behind the RE magent recycling business
BUY
- 3Q24 and 9M24 results include a net loss of US$0.3m and $2.0m, respectively (3Q23 and 9M23: -$1.5m and -$3.2m).
- The drop in G&A and exploration expenses account for a reduction in losses as the team cut cash burn prioritising on RE magnet recycling business amid weak REOs prices.
- 9M24 FCF amounted to -$1.4m (9M24: -$3.2m) further highlighting costs rationalisation.
- $2.0m in cash and $3.6m in debt () most of which ($3.4m) relates to a deferred consideration of the HyProMag acquisition and payable in tranches in cash or Mkango shares (Company discretion).
- Cash balance includes proceeds form a £1.25m equity raise in September.
- The Company highlights 25m of outstanding investor warrants issued during the last fundraise with a 7p exercise price and valid for 3 years (until 4 September 2027) representing a potential source of funding (~£1.8m).
- The raise was directed to advance its RE magnet recycling business in the UK and Germany as well as cover working capital needs.
- Commercial Production is targeted for 2025 in the UK and Germany, and 2027 for the US.
- At Tyseley, magnet presses were commissioned and powder processing plant constructed.
- HPMS vessel is expected to go through factory acceptance test and be available for delivery by end of February 2025.
- First production is expected by end of April with preliminary target of 25-30tpa NdFeB.
- Meanwhile, pilot production is ongoing providing samples of products for qualification and potential offtakes.
- In Germany, a site has been selected near Pforzheim with lease signed and planning for the infrastructure development progressing well.
- Orders placed for HPMS vessel, magner presses, jet mill, sintering furnaces among other things.
- The Company completed a strategic review of its upstream (Songwe Hill, Malawi) and midstream (Pulawy, Poland) assets appointing Cohen & Company to advise on a potential partnership or monetisation opportunities including USA listing and M&A.
- USA JV Feasibility Study released earlier this week highlighted attractive economics even at depressed magnet prices.
- US$262m and 23% in NPV7% and IRR (both post tax) using current market prices for NdFeB magnets of $55/kg (based on market enquiries).
- $503m and 31% in NPV7% and IRR (both post tax) based on forecast market prices of $94/kg (derived from latest REOs prices by Adamas Intelligence).
- $125m and 40y project is estimated to run at 1,147tpa of gross NdFeB product or 1,041tpa of payable NdFeB split between 750t NdFeB sintered magnets and 291t NdFeB by products (excess powder, swarf, offcuts).
- The Company estimates maiden sales 1Q27 following a 1.7y construction period with a Notice to Proceed expected in mid-2025.
*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Mkango Resources
Resolute Mining* (RSG LN) 20.9p, Mkt Cap £443m – Resolute pays Government of Mali a further $50m from existing cash reserves with another $30m due by end 2024 from existing facilities
- Resolute Mining reports the payment of a further $50m to the Military junta in Mali along with its intention to pay a further $30m by the year end.
- The company paid $80m last week as part of a settlement with the government enabling Resolute’s operations in Mali to meet the new 2023 Mining Code.
- Three employees including Terry Holohan, Resolute’s ceo have now been released from detention in the political wing of the Central Prison in Bamako, Mali.
- The three are in good spirits though their detention in a windowless cell for nearly two weeks was cause for much concern.
- The signed protocol settles all outstanding claims by the Government against Resolute Mining including tax, customs levies, maintenance and management of offshore accounts.
- “Operations at Syama continue as normal and have not been impacted.”
- Other miners in Mali:
- Ganfeng which recently acquired the Goulamina lithium mine from Leo Lithium were forced to pay
- Barrick Gold are currently in negotiation with the junta over the Loulo gold mine having recently freed four of their employees who had been held in detention in Mali.
- Kodal Minerals recently agreed terms to comply with the new 2023 Mining Convention. Kodal’s jv company are paying $15m in capital gains tax and will receive $4.3m from the Mali Government in return for 25% of the Bougouni lithium mine taking its stake to 35%. The mine is due to open in Late December or January.
- Hummingbird has the Yanfolila gold mine in Mali which is also be subject to the new code. Hummingbird held a net bank debt of approximately US$135 million with Coris (including approximately US$90 million of which is secured against the Company’s assets). In addition, the Company has approximately US$20 million of unsecured debt to CIG, which initially matures on 31 December 2024, per the announcement on 27 September 2024. Hummingbird are currently in the process of selling its Pasofino Gold subsidiary which holds the Dugbe project in Liberia.
- Armed bandits, claiming affiliation with Al Qaeda continue to terrorise the Sahel region of the Sahara challenging the governments of Mali and Burkina Faso.
- France’s withdrawal of its protecting force has left a vacuum which Wagner Group was quick to fill and exploit with the Mali government thought to be paying $2m a month for their alleged protection.
- A number of Wagner mercenaries were reportedly killed over the summer by Algerian forces as they crossed the border chasing bandits from Burkina Faso.
*SP Angel analysts hold shares in Resolute Mining
LSE Group Starmine awards for Q3 commodity forecasting:
No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Previous Metals forecasting in LSEG Quarterly Starmine Award for Reuters Polls Q3 2024
No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Quarterly Starmine Award for Reuters Polls Q3 2024
No.1 in Copper: “The winner of the 2020 Fastmarkets Apex contest for copper was the team at SP Angel comprising John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore, with an accuracy score of 93.8%”
No1. In Gold: “SP Angel’s trio took the top spot for the gold price prediction throughout the year, with an accuracy score of 97.59%”
The SP Angel team also ranked 1st in Palladium, 3rd in Tin and 5th in Silver in the fourth quarter of 2020
Analysts
John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484
Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474
Sales
Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472
Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534
Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535
Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471
SP Angel
Prince Frederick House
35-39 Maddox Street London
W1S 2PP
*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
| Sources of commodity prices | |
| Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver | BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London) |
| Gold ETFs, Steel | Bloomberg |
| Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt | LME |
| Oil Brent | ICE |
| Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore | NYMEX |
| Thermal Coal | Bloomberg OTC Composite |
| Coking Coal | SSY |
| RRE | Steelhome |
| Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, Rutile | Asian Metal |
DISCLAIMER
This note is a marketing communication and comprises non-independent research. This means it has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination.
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SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return
