Copper market digests impact of mud rush at Grasberg block cave in Indonesia
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
Anglesey Mining (AYM LN) – Equity financing facility
Aya Gold & Silver (AYA CN) – Response to short report after shares hit
DPM Metals (DPM CN) – Ecuador to suspend Loma Larga environmental license
Gemfields Group (GEM LN) – Interims impacted by operational setbacks
Gold Fields (GFI US) – Completion of Gold Fields takeover and Northern Star block trade
Keras Resources* (KRS LN) – Nayéga manganese mine in Togo contributes cash flow to fund expansion of organic phosphate sales in the US
Nordic Mining (7NM0 DE) – Rutile production delayed and bond issuance
Sovereign Metals* (SVML LN) – Year-end report shows strong progress towards production of rutile and graphite at Kasiya in Malawi
Copper ($10,212/t) market digests impact of mud rush at Grasberg block cave in Indonesia
- Copper spiked to $10,501/t yesterday on news of the mud rush at Grasberg, but has since retraced.
- Production at Grasberg might fall 250-260kt in 2025 and 270kt in 2026 as a direct result of the mud rush with full production unlikely till 2027.
- The mud rush brought an estimated 800,000t of wet material into the mine causing two fatalities with five other miners still missing.
- There is no doubt this is a serious incident for Grasberg and for the global copper market.
- Goldman Sachs sees global mine production growth of 1.9% in 2026, down from 2.2%, now seeing a deficit of 55.5kt in 2025, with a small surplus in 2026.
- Citi expects a market deficit of 400kt in 2026, revising Grasberg output assumptions to 500kt in 2026 from 774kt previously.
- Elsewhere, Peru’s Antamina is expected to push 2026 copper production to 450kt, up 20% from 2025.
| Dow Jones Industrials | -0.38% | at | 45,947 | |
| Nikkei 225 | -0.87% | at | 45,355 | |
| HK Hang Seng | -1.43% | at | 26,107 | |
| Shanghai Composite | -0.65% | at | 3,828 | |
| US 10 Year Yield (bp change) | +1.4 | at | 4.18 |
Economics
US – GDP growth was revised higher in 2Q25 driven by updates to consumer spending.
- GDP expanded at 3.8%qoq (annualised), up from 3.3% estimated previously.
- Consumer spending was up 2.5%, compared with 1.6% in preliminary estimates.
US administration is considering tariffs on semiconductor imports unless local production matches inbound shipments 1 for 1. (WSJ)
- US chipmakers will be asked to ramp up production locally and match imports by its customers.
Trump announced a series of new import tariffs in an escalation of trade war.
- President Trump said that the US will impose 100% tariffs on imports of branded or patented pharma goods from October 1.
- Companies that establish production in the US (ie “breaking ground” and/or “under construction”) will be exempted from the tariff.
- Tariffs do not apply to generic drugs.
- The EU earlier agreed that US pharma import tariffs would not exceed 15%.
- It is unclear if Japanese branded drug imports will be subject to new 100% tariff.
- Additionally, Trump is introducing a 25% tariff on all heavy trucks imports from the start of October.
US Department of Justice filed charges against former FBI Director James Comey after President Trump called for prosecution of his opponents. (FT)
- A grand jury indictment was filed in a federal court in Virginia accusing Comey of “serious crimes related to the disclosure of sensitive information”.
- The basis for charges included lying to Congress during his testimony to a US Senate Committee in 2020 and obstructing a congressional proceeding, according to the article.
- “JUSTICE IN AMERICA! One of the worst human beings this Country has ever been exposed to is James Comey, the former Corrupt Head of the FBI,” Trump wrote.
- US Attorney’s office for the Eastern District of Virginia is headed by Lindsey Halligan, Trump’s former personal lawyer.
- “I have great confidence in the federal judicial system and I’m innocent. So let’s have a trial and keep the faith,” Comey replied.
Eurozone – Inflation expectations ticked up in August, the ECB monthly survey showed.
- Inflation was seen rising 2.8%yoy over the next 12 months, up from 2.6% recorded in July.
- Measure for three years was unchanged while five year outlook climbed to 2.2%.
- Eurozone inflation slowed to 2% in August.
- The central bank has recently commented that authorities are happy with the current level of rates.
NATO privately informed Russia that it is ready to down its fighter jets in case of further violations of NATOs airspace. (Bloomberg)
- Russian officials denies their planes crossed NATOs (Estonia) airspace and insisted they are not testing the alliance.
- Russia stressed that its military flights are guided by international rules.
- Last week thee MiG-31 fighter jets allegedly crossed Estonia’s airspace.
- NATO is saying that the violation had been deliberate tactic ordered by Russian commanders.
Currencies
US$1.1678/eur vs 1.1743/eur previous. Yen 149.84/$ vs 148.70/$. SAr 17.449/$ vs 17.344/$. $1.335/gbp vs $1.346/gbp. 0.653/aud vs 0.659/aud. CNY 7.135/$ vs 7.127/$.
Dollar Index 98.42 vs 97.79 previous.
Precious metals:
Gold US$3,747/oz vs US$3,751/oz previous
Gold ETFs 96.2moz vs 96.1moz previous
Platinum US$1,553/oz vs US$1,498/oz previous
Palladium US$1,256/oz vs US$1,222/oz previous
Silver US$45.0/oz vs US$44.4/oz previous
Rhodium US$7,175/oz vs US$7,150/oz previous
Base metals:
Copper US$10,227/t vs US$10,326/t previous
Aluminium US$2,647/t vs US$2,644/t previous
Nickel US$15,205/t vs US$15,435/t previous
Zinc US$2,895/t vs US$2,924/t previous
Lead US$2,002/t vs US$2,001/t previous
Tin US$34,405/t vs US$34,490/t previous
Energy:
Oil US$69.4/bbl vs US$69.0/bbl previous
Natural Gas €32.7/MWh vs €32.3/MWh previous
Uranium Futures $83.6/lb vs $83.0/lb previous
Bulk:
Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$103.5/t vs US$106.0/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$449.4/t vs US$450.2/t
HCC FOB Australia US$187.0/t vs US$187.0/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$104.9/t vs US$105.1/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$35,000/t vs US$34,550/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$78,832/t vs US$80,051/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$10,063/t vs US$10,075/t
China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$830/t vs US$830/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,015/t vs US$1,015/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$593/mtu vs US$593/mtu
China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$93/lb vs US$92/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$400/t vs US$400/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.4/lb vs US$5.4/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.6/kg vs US$23.7/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$270/t vs US$270/t
US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,979/t vs US$2,979/t
China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,100/t vs US$1,101/t
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$352.5/t vs US$352.5/t
Germanium China 99.99% US$3,075.0/kg vs US$3,075.0/kg
China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg
EV & battery news
Tesla urges Trump not to scrap US vehicle emissions rules
- Tesla has made a last minute call to the Trump administration requesting federal vehicle emissions standards and the EPA’s finding that greenhouse gases endanger public health are kept in place.
- Tesla warned a repeal would give traditional automakers a “free pass” on emissions and undermine incentives for EV investment.
- The company earned $2.8bn in 2024 from regulatory credits, which would be lost if rules are removed.
- Most other automakers, including GM, Toyota and VW, are lobbying to weaken standards instead of a blanket removal.
- Trump has already ended EV tax credits, blocked California’s 2035 gasoline car ban, and waived fines for automakers missing fuel economy rules.
| Overnight Change | Weekly Change | Overnight Change | Weekly Change | ||
| BHP | 1.3% | 6.5% | Freeport-McMoRan | -6.2% | -21.3% |
| Rio Tinto | 1.2% | 8.1% | Vale | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| Glencore | 0.3% | 6.5% | Newmont Mining | 0.2% | 6.8% |
| Anglo American | -0.3% | 5.0% | Fortescue | -0.1% | 2.2% |
| Antofagasta | 0.5% | 12.4% | Teck Resources | 0.2% | 2.4% |
Company news
Anglesey Mining (AYM LN) 0.26, Mkt Cap £1.3m – Equity financing facility
- Anglesey, who are advancing the Parys Mountain VMS project in North Wales, have agreed an equity financing facility.
- The facility, with Alumni Capital, will provide equity funding of £2m.
- When Anglesey draws funds from the facility, Alumni will subscribe the number of shares specified at the lowest daily VWAP during the five days of trading following the subscription notice, at a 20% discount.
- Alumni will also receive warrants of one warrant for every two shares subscribed.
- The warrants can be exercised at a 20% premium to the Reference Pirce for three years from date of grant.
Aya Gold & Silver (AYA CN) C$13, Mkt Cap C$1.8bn – Response to short report after shares hit
- Precious metal miner Aya has issued a rebuttal to a short report issued yesterday by Blue Orca Capital.
- The short report triggered a 15% sell off in Aya stock after it accused the Company of publishing flawed resource data.
- Management states that the March 2021 Zgounder resource model was supported by 76,000m of drilling, subsequently boosted to 121,500m of drilling.
- Aya has completed an additional 231,000m of drilling between 2021 and 2025, ‘significantly increasing confidence in the resource base.’
- Company notes they are currently providing an updated technical report for Zgounder, along with a new mine incorporating both open-pit and underground operations.
- Aya reports cash of $115m and positive operating cash flow from Zgounder, enabling them to fund Boumadine, where a PEA is on track before year-end.
DPM Metals (DPM CN) C$30, Mkt Cap C$6.6bn – Ecuador to suspend Loma Larga environmental license
- Ecuador to start the process of suspending the environmental license for the US$419m Loma Larga Gold Project.
- The measure comes after massive protests against the project in Cuenca last week.
- Protesters argued that the operation will affect the water recharge zone that supplies water to Cuenca, the capital of Azuay province.
- Opponents called on Environmental Minister to revoke the environmental permit granted to the Company in June.
- The Company acquired the asset in 2021 with the underground operation estimated to run for 12y producing 200kozpa (1-5y) and 170kozpa LOM average.
- Reserves at 12.6mt at 4.7g/t gold and 0.29% copper for 1.9moz.
- Resources at 30.3t at 3.4g/t and 0.20% copper for 3.3moz.
- Dundee planned to come the project into construction by late 2026/early 2027.
Keras Resources* (KRS LN) 1.5p, Mkt cap £2.2m – Nayéga manganese mine in Togo contributes cash flow to fund expansion of organic phosphate sales in the US
(Keras holds 100% of the Diamond Creek phosphate mine in Utah, USA)
- Keras Resources reports the start of Nayéga manganese mine in Togo is:
-
- “meeting expectations of processing ore at an initial rate of 4,000 tonnes per month of saleable manganese for the first 3 months and thereafter at nameplate capacity of 8,000 tonnes per month of saleable ore.”
- Keras has received its first payment from the Nayéga mine / government of Togo in accordance with the 2023 cooperation agreement.
- This follows the shipment of the first 2,700t of ore on 5 September 2025.
- Funds from Nayéga should help underpin development and working capital at Keras’ organic phosphate operations in Utah in the US.
- Nayéga manganese mine (Togo):
- Keras holds a 1.5% royalty advisory fee plus 6.0% of gross revenue from the mine over the lesser of 3.5 years or 900,000t of beneficiated manganese ore sold..
- The deal with the Togo government should give nearly $0.9m a year at a price of $3.5/dmt for manganese and production of 7,480tpa equating to some $2.6m over three years.
- Manganese ore prices for 38%min FOB South Africa have recovered to $3.20-3.35/dmtu from a low of around $3/dmtu in April.
- Diamond Creek mine (Utah, USA) sales are expected to exceed the £753,000 seen in 2024 depending on sales of organic phosphate to farmers.
*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Keras
Nordic Mining (7NM0 DE) NOK14.2, Mkt Cap NOK1.6bn – Rutile production delayed and bond issuance
- Nordic, who are developing the Engebø Rutile and Garnet project, provide an update.
- Plant modifications and maintenance has been conducted, although the dry plant is seeing lower throughput and technical difficulties.
- As a result, the Company does not expect to produce sufficient volumes for a full cargo of rutile before year end.
- Nordic is aiming to bring on rutile and garnet processing expertise to support ramp up of rutile volumes.
- Company expects to hit nameplate capacity in 2Q26.
- As a result of the financial impact from the delay, a bond issue of US$23m at 12.5% will be conducted.
- This will take total bonds outstanding to US$156m.
Gemfields Group (GEM LN) 5.25p, Mkt Cap £106m – Interims impacted by operational setbacks
- Gemfields reports interim results for the period to 30th June.
- The Company, which operates the Kagem and Montepuez mines, reported revenue of $64.2m for the period.
- EBITDA reported ($4.9m) vs $50.3m same period last year.
- Net loss of ($20.5m), vs net profit of $14m same period last year.
- Free cash flow reported at ($22.1m) on lower auction revenue and increased CAPEX at Montepuez.
- Net debt position of US$61m, up from $44m same period last year.
- Management notes production difficulties at both operations, with lower premium ruby output from Montepuez and a suspension of mining at Kagem at the end of 2024.
- Company notes impacts from the implementation of a 15% export duty on emeralds in Zambia, subsequently resolved.
- Montepuez processing plant addition produced first rubies in September and expected to be fully operational in October.
Gold Fields (GFI US) $39, Mkt Cap $37bn – Completion of Gold Fields takeover and Northern Star block trade
- Gold fields has received the necessary votes from shareholders to acquire Gold Road.
- Gold Road shareholders are receiving A$2.52/share for each Gold Road stock and a special dividend of A$0.44/share.
- Gold Road shareholders are also receiving a variable cash considerable of A$0.98/share for the value of their shareholding in Northern Star.
- Gold Fields has successfully sold the stake in Northern Star by way of block trade at A$22/share.
Sovereign Metals* (SVML LN) 35p, Mkt Cap £223m – Year-end report shows strong progress towards production of rutile and graphite at Kasiya in Malawi
(Sovereign currently holds 100% of the Kasiya project. Malawi has 10% free carry right. Rio Tinto holds 18.5% of Sovereign Metals)
- Sovereign Metals have released their annual report for the year to end-June 2025.
- The team have made huge progress towards the completion of the DFS with extensive input from specialists at Rio Tinto.
- The DFS is due shortly with extensive trial mining and pilot process plant test work.
- Financials: Pre-tax losses rose to A$40m from A$18.6m yoy.
- Exploration costs rose to A$34m from A$14.8m on the further definition and delineation of the substantial resource at the proposed Kasiya mine site.
- Corporate and admin costs rose to a relatively modest A$1.6m vs A$1.1m yoy as the company prepares for the transition from explorer to miner.
- Salaries and wages held steady at A$2.7m vs A$2.9m yoy.
- Business development expenses held steady at A$2.3m
- Forex gains fell to A$0.2m vs A$0.5m yoy.
- The company has A$17m of Deferred tax assets not brought to account vs A$11m yoy.
- Performance rights: Around 11 million performance rights expire at end October 2025 with 5m running to end March 2026 and 6m till end June 2026.
- Share-based payments rose to A$4.3m vs A$2.3m due to the granting of rights during the year, partially offset by the lapse of A$0.5m of rights.
- Total performance rights rose to A$22m vs A$18m yoy.
- Nacala Logistics Corridor development initiative:
- Japan is funding an upgrade to the Nacala Rail Corridor providing significant additional capacity on the rail line to the Nacala port in Mozambique.
- This US$7bn commitment alongside the African Development Bank should strengthen the critical mineral supply chain from Malawi, Zambia and Mozambique.
- Kasiya’s rutile product has already had certification approvals from Japan’s Toho Titanium as feedstock for the titanium metal market.
- Sovereign has also previously signed a MoU with Japan’s Mitsui & Co for rutile offtake.
- Rutile prices are currently at $1,850-1,900/t for 93% min FOB China.
- An expected rise in high-speed jet-aircraft and drone production is likely to drive demand for titanium metal.
- Prices for ilmenite, the principal feedstock for titanium dioxide have fallen to around US$270/t from around US$370/t at the start of the year.
Conclusion: The Kasiya rutile and graphite project is a world-class project and looks set to become a hugely significant future producer of titanium and graphite feedstock.
*SP Angel act as Nomad and broker to Sovereign Metals. The analyst has visited the Kasiya mine site and highly recommends the Malawi coffee.
LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:
No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025
No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024
No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024
Analysts
John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484
Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474
Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476
Sales
Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472
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Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471
George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486
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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
| Sources of commodity prices | |
| Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver | BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London) |
| Gold ETFs, Steel | Bloomberg |
| Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt | LME |
| Oil Brent | ICE |
| Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore | NYMEX |
| Thermal Coal | Bloomberg OTC Composite |
| Coking Coal | SSY |
| RRE | Steelhome |
| Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, Rutile | Asian Metal |
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