SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Friday 19th January 2023

Copper Tc/Rcs fall to $20/t/20c on disruptions to copper supply in Panama, Indonesia, Peru and Chile

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Alba Mineral Resources (ALBA LN) – Completion of dewatering at the Clogau St David’s mine in N Wales

Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) – BUY – Global Industry Standard on Tailings Management commitment

Anglesey Mining (AYM LN) – Infill drilling result from Parys Mountain

Atlantic Lithium* (ALL LN) – Assore increases stake in potential takeover target

Capital Group (CAPD LN) – Fourth quarter drilling affected by Mali inactivity

KEFI Gold and Copper* (KEFI LN) – Saudi Arabia JV update

Oriole Resources* (ORR LN) – Mbe earn-in agreement executed with BCM

Premier African Minerals (PREM LN) – Equipment issues at the Zulu lithium project, Zimbabwe being addressed ahead of late February resumption of production

Rockfire Resources (ROCK LN) – Exploration results from the Lighthouse project, Queensland

Copper Tc/Rcs fall to $20/t/20c on disruptions to copper supply in Panama, Indonesia, Peru and Chile

• A tightening market for copper concentrates has caused the cash to 3-month margin on copper is a large as it has ever been.
• First Quantum, Freeport, MMG and Anglo American are all struggling to meet commitments due to local and production issues.
• The expansion of Chinese copper smelting capacity now means smelters are dropping prices substantially to attract any available copper concentrates
• The situation has the potential to lead to a shortage of physical copper following the restart of manufacturing after the Chinese new year

Chinese New Year – The Year of the Dragon begins on 10^th February

• The Chinese lunar new year holiday ends on to 17^th February with many returning to work on Monday 19^th February
• Traders are typically slow to come back to the market to buy commodities but we suspect this year will be different with manufacturers offloading metal into a falling market ahead of the slowdown.
• Logistics delays in the Red Sea may also prompt an early return to the market by traders and buyers after the lunar new year break

Base metal producers close plants as thin margins weigh on cash flows

• The weakness in aluminium, zinc and nickel, down 16%, 30% and 44% respectively over the past 12 months, is forcing producers to slash production.
•  Nyrstar announced on Monday it plans to suspend operations at its Buden zinc smelter, citing high energy costs and weak prices.
• Similarly, Alcoa announced it’s San Ciprian smelter continues to suffer losses despite slashing output to support margins.
• Nickel producers are also struggling, with Australian operators cutting supply and BHP noting it plans to write down asset values amid the ‘structural changes’ in the sector.
• Whilst nickel remains well supplied from Indonesia, we wonder whether other metals seeing smelter curtailments could see a sharp reversal in pricing as supply continues to come offline.
• A lack of concentrate supply is pressuring smelter TCRC fees, with Friedland warning they could hit close to $0 as smelters battle for supply.

Economics

US – Fed Atlanta President Bostic sees rate cuts in Q3

• Raphael Bostic projects Fed to begin cutting rates in Q3 bringing forward his projection from Q4
• US initial jobless claims fell to 187k someway below expectation of 207k
• Continuing claims fell -26k to 1806k

Japan – Core CPI falls to 2.3% but remains above BoJ’s target

• Core CPI core, exc. fresh food, slowed in December, to 2.3% yoy from 2.5% yoy its lowest since June 2022
• Headline CPI slowed to 2.6% yoy from 2.8% yoy.
• CPI core-core, which excludes both food and energy fell to 3.7% yoy from 3.8% yoy.

UK – Retail sales volume fell -3.2% mom in December – worse than expected and -0.5% mom representing the biggest monthly fall since January 2021.

• Excluding fuel, sales volumes fell -3.3% mom.
• Ex-fuel sales volumes fell by -1.9% mom.
• Annualised sales volumes fell by 2.8% to their lowest level since 2018 last year.
•  Retail sales value fell -3.6% mom.
• Ex-fuel sales value fell -3.6% mom.

Currencies

US$1.0868/eur vs 1.0885/eur previous. Yen 148.32/$ vs 147.81/$. SAr 19.007/$ vs 19.006/$. $1.267/gbp vs $1.269/gbp. 0.658/aud vs         0.655/aud. CNY 7.195/$ vs 7.196/$.

Dollar Index 103.46 vs 103.31 previous.

Commodity News

Precious metals:

Gold US$2,027/oz vs US$2,011/oz previous

Gold ETFs 84.5moz vs 84.6moz previous

Platinum US$913/oz vs US$891/oz previous

Palladium US$944/oz vs US$928/oz previous

Silver US$22.78/oz vs US$23/oz previous

Rhodium US$4,600/oz vs US$4,550/oz previous

Base metals:

Copper US$ 8,343/t vs US$8,288/t previous

Aluminium US$ 2,169/t vs US$2,184/t previous

Nickel US$ 16,250/t vs US$16,095/t previous

Zinc US$ 2,472/t vs US$2,457/t previous

Lead US$ 2,089/t vs US$2,057/t previous

Tin US$ 25,500/t vs US$25,400/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$79.3/bbl vs US$78.1/bbl previous

Henry Hub Gas US$2.66/mmBtu vs US$2.95/mmBtu yesterday

• Crude oil prices moved higher after the EIA reported a 2.5mb w/w US crude draw, offset by a 3.1mb build to gasoline and 2.4mb build to distillate stocks, as refinery utilisation edged 0.3% lower w/w to 92.6%.
• US natural gas prices fell even as the EIA storage report detailed a 154bcf w/w draw to 3,182bcf last week, with storage levels still 12.4% above last year and 11.2% above the 5-year average.
• The IEA’s January oil monthly report forecast that global oil demand growth would halve from 2.3mb/d in 2023 to 1.2mb/d in 2024 (102.3mb/d) due to a slowing recovery, efficiency standards and an expanding EV fleet. This is below OPEC’s +2.25mb/d growth forecast to 104.4mb/d and the EIA’s +1.4mb/d forecast to 102.5mb/d.
• The IEA forecasts that non-OPEC+ will rise add 1.5 mb/d to boost global supply to 103.5mb/d (OPEC estimates +1.3mb/d & EIA +0.6mb/d), fuelled by record output from the US, Brazil, Guyana and Canada. The IEA also expects the OPEC+ group to supply 48.4mb/d of oil with c.6mb/d of spare capacity (3.2mb/d in Saudi Arabia).

Natural Gas €28.4/MWh vs €27.9/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $106.0/lb vs $105.8/lb previous

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (cfr Tianjin) US$129.1/t vs US$125.1/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$572.7/t vs US$572.5/t

Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$100.0/t vs US$100.3/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$125.5/t vs US$125.8/t

Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$321.0/t vs US$321.0/t

Other:

Cobalt LME 3m US$29,135/t vs US$29,135/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$55,805/t vs US$55,786/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$12,023/t vs US$12,019/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$1,000/t vs US$1,000/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,060/t vs US$1,061/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$305/mtu vs US$305/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$590/t vs US$590/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% 6.0/lb vs US$6.0/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% 28.75/kg vs US$28.75/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$316/t vs US$316/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$67.5/t vs US$70.6/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$295.0/t vs US$295.0/t

Battery News

EV makers expect slower growth in sales for 2024

• Europe’s EV sales dropped 4% in December 2023.
• Sales fell for the first time in 17 months as enthusiasm for EVs slipped.
• Elevated borrowing costs, a sluggish economy and growing pessimism around EVs have impacted industry outlook for 2024.

US to give $150m to repair and replace EV charging stations

• The US Department of Transportation will give $148.8m to 20 states to repair or replace 4500 EV charging ports.
• The funds are part of the $5bn National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) program funded by a $1trn 2021 infrastructure law.
• Currently the US has more than 170,000 public charging ports – since the start of the Biden administration, the number of publicly available chargers has increased by more than 70%.

Company News

Alba Mineral Resources (ALBA LN) 0.1p, Mkt cap £7.4m – Completion of dewatering at the Clogau St David’s mine in N Wales

• Yesterday, Alba Mineral Resources reported that it has now completed dewatering of the Lower Llechfraith workings at the Clogau-St David’s Mine in North Wales.
• The company now plans to assess the safety aspects of the old workings before getting exploration underway including mapping, sampling of the No 4 level workings.
• The company also took the opportunity to confirm that airborne geophysical flights have been completed over the Castle Carndochan area and that its contractors are “now proceeding directly to the undertaking of the flights over the two remaining survey areas, Hafod Owen and Gwynfynydd, weather permitting”.
• Commenting on the completion of the dewatering, Executive Chairman, George Frangeskides, said that he and “Alba’s COO Mark Austin… were able to venture out onto No.4 Level this morning, the first time anyone has walked this key section of the Clogau Gold Mine for decades”.
• has been awarded the necessary permits for the planned.
• He also explained that the company’s geophysical consultants “are on standby to commence the compilation and interpretation of the geophysical data generated by the survey as soon as it has been completed”.

Anglo Asian Mining* (AAZ LN) 54.1p, Mkt Cap £62m – Global Industry Standard on Tailings Management commitment

BUY

• Anlo Asian Mining report the company has committed to implement Global Industry Standard on Tailings Management.
• The Global Industry Standard on Tailings Management is an  initiative is led by the Church of England Pensions Board and the Swedish Council on Ethics.
• The initiative followed the catastrophic dam collapse at Vale’s Corrego de Feijao mine in Brumadinho, Brazil which killed 270 people in a disaster which should never have happened.
• Anglo Asian’s tailings dam has been thoroughly checked and currently complies with all local tailings dam regulations.
• Three international environmental and engineering consultancies have carried out audits confirming the tailings management facility is operated to international standards..
• The Gedabek gold and copper mine tailings facility is 4.5km downstream of the mine and production facilities and is located below the town of Gedabek.
• The dam was designed by CQA International ~12 years ago in accordance with the International Committee on Large Dams which reflected best practice at the time for the design and construction of tailings management facilities.
• The construction of the tailings embankment was supervised by CQA International in four construction phases with one further construction phase required for the facility to reach its final design capacity.
• Anglo Asian is currently preparing to build new tailings facilities to match its new copper and gold mines planned in the region.
• Management are free to restart all mining operations as of 7^th November. While mining restarted in November, other parts of the operation are have been resumed in stages.
• The heap leach operation continued throughout the partial shutdown enabling the ongoing generation of significant cash flow.

Conclusion:  Anglo Asian have worked through concerns pertaining to the existing tailings facilities. We believe this should allow the company to proceed as previously intended with the running of its existing mines as well as the development of the new copper and gold mines at Gilar, Garadag and XarXar.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Anglo Asian Mining

Anglesey Mining (AYM LN) 1.8p, Mkt Cap £7.3m – Infill drilling result from Parys Mountain

• Anglesey Mining reports assay results from its drillhole, NCZ-001, investigating the Northern Copper Zone and Garth Daniel Zone at Parys Mountain which was completed at a depth of 635m late last year.
• Assay results highlighted in today’s announcement include:
  • A 22m wide intersection of the Garth Daniel zone at an average grade of 2.3% copper, 1.3% lead, 5.0g/t silver and 0.3g/t gold from a depth of 559m (reported as 3.7% on a copper equivalent basis) , including sections of 4.0m, from 569m depth, at an average grade of 5.2% copper, 5.0g/t silver, and 0.03g/t gold and of 6.0m, from 575m depth, at an average grade of 2.5% copper, 9.9% zinc, 4.7% lead, 10.0g/t silver, and 0.1g/t gold; and
  • Intersections of the Northern Copper zone include 63.0m at an average grade of 0.6% copper, 0.06% zinc, 0.03% lead, 3g/t silver and 0.2g/t gold from 362m depth and of 13.0m at an average grade of 0.5% copper, 0.05% zinc, 0.01% lead, 2g/t silver and 0.1g/t gold from 455m and 11.0m at an average grade of 0.6% copper, 1.4% zinc, 0.5% lead, 9.0g/t silver and 0.4g/t gold from 503m depth;
  • The upper, 63m wide intersection, includes higher grade portions of 16.0m at an average grade of 0.9% copper, 0.05% zinc, 0.02% lead, 3g/t silver and 0.2g/t gold from 382m depth and of 7.0m at an average grade of 1.3% copper, 0.11% zinc, 0.05% lead, 5.5g/t silver and 0.2g/t gold from 404m depth
• Interim Chairman, Andrew King, said that the company is “very encouraged by the broad widths encountered across both the Garth Daniel and Northern Copper Zones in NCZ001. In particular, we are excited to see the significant intersection within the Garth Daniel Zone. The 22-metre intersection grading 3.7% copper equivalent we believe continues to demonstrate the prospectivity of the Parys Mountain mineralised system.
• Mr. King said that “Infill drilling of these mineralised zones will play a crucial role in the development studies for Parys Mountain. The primary target for this program is to provide additional pierce points to enable the current Inferred resources to be upgraded to the Indicated category”.
• He confirmed that the second hole of the programme is currently at a depth of 360m with and is expected to reach the Northern Copper zone at “around 420 metres”.

Conclusion: Assays from the first new infill hole at Parys Mountain confirms mineralisation in both the Garth Daniel and the Northern Copper Zones with a 22m wide intersection of Garth Daniel and a 63m wide intersection of the Northern Copper zone.  Drilling is aimed at uprating some of the current inferred resources to the indicated level. The second hole of the programme is currently around 60m from the expected position of the Northern Copper Zones.

Atlantic Lithium* (ALL LN) 22.3p, Mkt Cap £142m – Assore increases stake in potential takeover target

• Piedmont reported yesterday that it has sold 24.3m shares of its equity stake in Atlantic Lithium to Assore a South African based mining group.
• Assore is Atlantic’s largest shareholder, and the sale will increase their stake to 28.4%.
• The stake represented a 3.9% share of Atlantic’s issued capital, valued at US$7.8m.
• Piedmont will retain a 5.2% ownership in Atlantic and the sale does not impact their current earn-in and offtake agreements over the Ewoyaa project.
• Piedmont is currently shoring up its balance sheet and ‘taking a disciplined approach to deploying capital in the current lithium price environment.’
• They reiterate their commitment to Ewoyaa and its potential as a low-cost spodumene producer.
• Atlantic reported in November that it has rejected two non-binding takeover offers from Assore at £0.33/share.
• Piedmont is currently burning cash, with $72m in cash as of 31^st December vs $94.5m as of 30^th September.
• The Company is investing heavily into the ramp up of their JV operation the North American Lithium project operated by Sayona.
• NAL has previously been placed on care and maintenance in challenging spodumene pricing environments.
• We suggest the low-cost Ewoyaa presents a more attractive investment proposition than the marginal NAL project and Assore seemingly agrees.
• Atlantic Lithium is already at an advanced stage in its offtake sale process which is expected to provide funding for the full construction of the Ewoyaa lithium project.

Conclusion:  The UK investors are concerned that Assore might breach 30%, though UK takeover provisions do not apply in this case. Assore have bought the maximum that the 3% creep provision will allow every 6 months.

We strongly suspect Assore is preparing to take another run at Atlantic Lithium and might be preparing to become a more significant player in lithium production and processing.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad to Atlantic Lithium. Two mining analysts from SP Angel recently visited the Ewoyaa mine site in Ghana and drove onto Takoradi to check the quality of the road to port. Our analysts also visited the Ministry of Minerals Commission and MIIF, the Ghana Minerals Income Investment Fund.

Capital Group (CAPD LN) 87p, Mkt cap £169m – Fourth quarter drilling affected by Mali inactivity

• Mining services company Capital provides a fourth quarter trading update for the period to 31^st December 2023.
• The Company reported FY 2023 revenue up 9.7% at $318.4m, missing guidance of $320-340m.
• The guidance miss followed a reduction in drilling activity from Perseus in Sudan and impacts of a slowdown in Mali amid in-country tensions.
• The Company has received a letter of intent from Centamin for a five-year drilling programme at Sukari in Egypt.
• They have also received a contract from Perseus for two years of drilling at their Sissingue project in Cote D’Ivoire.
• Fleet utilisation in Q4 stood at 72%, with full year utilisation down 7.6% vs 2022.

KEFI Gold and Copper* (KEFI LN) 0.64p, Mkt Cap £32m – Saudi Arabia JV update

• Ownership in Saudi Arabia JV, Gold & Minerals Ltd (GMCO), is being adjusted to reflect exploration spending incurred by partners during the period.
• KEFI and ARTAR will own 25% and 75% in the JV, respectively, compared to KEFI’s share of 27% previously.
• GMCO incurred ~£19m in exploration and feasibility related expenses over 2023 with the Company planning to provide encouraging results over portfolio projects in the region.
• ARTAR is reported to have funded £3.5m of KEFI’s pari passu 2023 contributions.
• While KEFI interest is getting diluted in the regional portfolio, the team aims to minimise cash burn with the focus currently being primarily on Tulu Kapi, Ethiopia, funding completion planned for H1/24.
• At the same time, the Company maintains reasonable exposure to exciting gold/base metals projects in Saudi Arabia.
• Additionally, as part of corporate structure adjustments, exploration and mining licenses held by ARTAR will be transferred into GMCO’s to provide further flexibility for project financing across the portfolio.
• In the future, the plan is to transfer licenses of existing and new projects into separate subsidiaries enabling additional flexibility on specific mining projects.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to KEFI Gold and Copper

Oriole Resources* (ORR LN) 0.29p, Mkt cap £10.8m – Mbe earn-in agreement executed with BCM

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• Oriole announces today that it has now signed the second and final definitive earn-in agreement with BCM International, over the Mbe gold project.
• Oriole will receive a $1m signature payment from BCM (less $50k already received).
• In addition, BCM will invest up to $4m to earn up to a 50% interest in the Mbe project.
• The earn in agreement remains conditional on BCM’s due-diligence review, expected to be completed on/before 31^st January with sample results expected this month.

Conclusion: Oriole has now signed the second of their two highly attractive earn-in agreements with Ghanaian mining contractor BCM. Mbe remains highly prospective for gold, with high-grade anomalies shown over a 12km-long strike. BCM will enable the necessary exploration and drilling work at the site to shore up a resource and take Mbe to the next stage of its development. A $1m signature payment will be made upon the completion of BCM’s due diligence period this month.

*SP Angel acts as Broker to Oriole Resources

Premier African Minerals (PREM LN) 0.16p, Mkt Cap £42m – Equipment issues at the Zulu lithium project, Zimbabwe being addressed ahead of late February resumption of production

• In a progress report issued yesterday, Premier African Minerals reported that, in response to “well documented” issues concerning the performance of the plant at its Zulu lithium project in Zimbabwe, “Stark International Projects Limited has undertaken to upgrade the UV sorters to include colour-based detection to complement the use of XRT. The upgrade is expected to be installed and operational before startup”.
• The announcement also confirms that “a  new thickener is under installation, and this is expected to complement the floatation circuit by improving the density and flow of slurry to the float plant”.
• Premier African also confirms that the “new ball mill that has been custom built for Zulu is expected to depart from South Africa in in the last week of January 2024 and will represent the last major item to be positioned and connected for a restart of production that is still anticipated late February 2024. By this time, an additional hydrosizer, mill discharge screen, and associated tanks, sumps and pumps are expected to have been installed”

Rockfire Resources (ROCK LN) 0.32p, Mkt Cap £8.0m – Exploration results from the Lighthouse project, Queensland

• Rockfire Resources has announced results from reverse circulation (RC) drilling by Sunshine Metals as part of its ‘farm-in’ for the Lighthouse project where Sunshine can earn a 75% interest in the project by spending A$2.2m over three years.
• The drilling, in 11 holes totaling 1,167m tested prospects at the Cardigan Dam, Plateau and Horse Creek prospects.
• Five holes (565m) drilled at Cardigan Dam tested “two separate gossanous shear zones which sit within a ~300m long soil anomaly … [and] … identified multiple anomalous gold zones including a shallow intersection requiring follow-up”.
• The company highlights an intersection of 3m at an average grade of 1.56g/t gold from a depth of 31m in hole 23-CDRC-002 at Cardigan Dam.
• Drilling of a further 5 holes (505m) at the Plateau prospect “assessed the northeast corner of the mineralised rhyolite pipe … [and]… Prospective breccia was intersected in 3 holes” including a single metre intersection grading 2.29g/t from a depth of 41m” in hole 23-PLRC-004.
• Commenting on the Sunshine Metals’ exploration, CEO, David Price, which he described asconsistent and “methodical”, said that “initial results of this calibre, particularly at Cardigan Dam are very encouraging.

No.1 in Copper:  “The winner of the 2020 Fastmarkets Apex contest for copper was the team at SP Angel comprising John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore, with an accuracy score of 93.8%”

No1. In Gold:  “SP Angel’s trio took the top spot for the gold price prediction throughout the year, with an accuracy score of 97.59%”

The SP Angel team also ranked 1st in Palladium, 3rd in Tin and 5th in Silver in the fourth quarter of 2020

Analysts

John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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