SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Friday 18th July 2025

US to impose 93.5% import duties on Chinese sending graphite stocks higher

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Atlantic Lithium* (ALL LN) 7.8p, Mkt Cap £54m – Minister confirms Ghana Cabinet has authorised revised terms of the Mining Lease be negotiated and presented for review by Cabinet

Hamak Gold (HAMA LN) 1.92p, Mkt cap £8.7m – Appointment of Dr Laffer of the Laffer Curve as Hamak pursue a Bitcoin Management strategy in addition to gold exploration in Liberia, West Africa

Kavango Resources* (KAV LN) 1.18p, Mkt Cap £34m – Latest drilling results from Bill’s Luck, Hillside, Zimbabwe

Robex Resources (RXR AU) A$3.6, Mkt Cap A$828m – Kiniero development update

Graphite – US to impose 93.5% import duties on Chinese sending graphite stocks higher

• The US Commerce Department preliminary decision on an additional levy takes the effective tariff to 160% arguing China has been unfairly subsidising graphite production.
• A final decision is expected by December 5.
• A traded association representing US graphite producers filed petitions with two federal agencies in December asking for investigations if Chinese producers violated anti-dumping laws.
• Tariffs are estimated to amount to $7/kWh in extra costs added to an average EV battery cell or 1/5 of the manufacturing tax credits under the IRA.
• Bloomberg estimates that the US imported 180kt of graphite products in 2024 with 2/3s of deliveries originating from China.
• Shares in Talga Group and Syrah Resources were up 10% and 26% on ASX today.

Lithium – Chinese lithium prices climb leasing lithium developers/producers higher on the news of a suspension at the Zangge Mining production facility in China.

• Operations in Haixi in the western province of Qinghai has been ordered to immediately halt production by authorities on what is believed permitting issues.
• The Company said it is working to on the relevant documentation to apply for necessary permits for a restart.
• Operations are estimated to produce ~11ktpa LC and delivered 5.4kt in 1H25.
• Zangge has investments in three yet-to-be-developed lithium brine deposits.
• The Company is mainly a potash producer with a ~1/3 of revenue generated from lithium at its salt lakes in 2024.
• Zijin agreed to invest $1.9bn for a ~25% stake in Zangge at the beginning of the year.
• Spodumene and battery grade lithium prices were up ~3% following the news trading at $730/t and CNY65,800 ($9,170/t), respectively.

Uranium – Japan to return to nuclear power to meet increasing power demands

• Japan is paving the way for new next-generation nuclear power plants as it begins the reactivation of reactors shut down in the wake of the Fukishima nuclear disaster in 2011.

• Under new policy direction, driven by soaring LNG prices and need to meet energy needs and decarbonisation targets, Japan will reactivate 14 of the 54 reactors that were closed.

• The ‘reactivation phase’ will last until 2030 according to executives and industry experts.

• The new policies will also allow new atomic reactors to be built at existing sites.

• Japan has laid out a road map of five types of next-generation nuclear reactors, which are expected to be safer than the boiling water reactors used in the Fukushima Daiichi plant.

• • High-temperature gas-cooled reactors are the closest to realisation and could begin operation in the 2030s.

• • Advanced light water reactors, small modular reactors, fast neutron reactors and nuclear fusion are all part of the plans, but could take much longer to realise.
• There has also been an article floating around that Japan has developed a microreactor the size of a shipping container that could power remote villages and would last 10 years without refuelling, but we have been unable to find irrefutable proof that this is legitimate.

IGTV – The Future of Mining: Gold, Copper, Rare Earths & M&A:  https://youtu.be/-G59iOq6x2c?si=z4fVkyHNP9isbOTB

Currencies

US$1.1626/eur vs 1.5190/eur previous. Yen 148.81/$ vs 148.72/$. SAr 17.738/$ vs 17.918/$. $1.343/gbp vs $1.339/gbp. 0.651/aud vs 0.645/aud. CNY 7.179/$ vs 7.180/$.

Dollar Index 98.49 vs 98.7 previous

US – Retail sales beat estimates in June rebounding from a slump in May on a recovery in auto sales.

• The report will be taken as some relief over mounting concerns around the health of the consumer.
• Although, headline numbers are reported including inflation with inflation adjusted spending data to be released later this month.
• Retails Sales (%mom, Jun/May/Est): 0.6/-0.9/0.1
• Retail Sales Control Group (%mom, Jun/May/Est): 0.5/0.2(revised from 0.4)/0.3
• Weekly Jobless Claims (Jul12/Prev/Est): 221k/228k(revised from 227k)/233k

Japan – Core inflation picks up in June for a third consecutive over 3% reading.

• Inflation now top other G7 nations weighing on households as their real income keeps falling.
• The figures are likely to keep the central bank on its path towards more monetary tightening.
• CPI (%yoy, Jun/May/Est): 3.3/3.5/3.3
• CPI ex Food and Energy (%yoy, Jun/May/Est): 3.4/3.3/3.3

UK – Government agrees to pay EU in Brexit reset

• The EU is demanding the UK contributes financially to EU organisations which manage food standards and the EU carbon market rules.
• The EU is also insisting the UK should be blocked from making any changes or amendments to the rules, making the UK a EU rule-taker.
• Some are speculating the Labour leader may be looking for a job in the EU joining Neil and Glenys Kinnock as MEPs within the European Parliament

Russia – Top banking officials looking for state-bailout

• Banking executives concerned over potential level of default on loan books
• Quality of loan-books worse than expected according to some of Russia’s top banking executives.
• Need for recapitalisation in next 12-months.
• With the economy run through the control of oligarchs through corrupt practices few would be surprised at the poor quality of loan portfolios.
• As the level of default rises the unravelling of the Russian banking system may be as swift as it is corrupt.

Conclusion: We predict more banking executives and oligarchs might accidentally fall out of some high windows, meet with unfortunate car accidents or take extended leave in faraway Gulags.

Precious metals:

Gold US$3,348/oz vs US$3,328/oz previous

Gold ETFs 91.2moz vs 91.0moz previous

Platinum US$1,461/oz vs US$1,430/oz previous

Palladium US$1,306/oz vs US$1,267/oz previous

Silver US$38.3/oz vs US$38.4/oz previous

Rhodium US$5,800/oz vs US$5,700/oz previous 

Base metals:

Copper US$9,710/t vs US$9,623/t previous

Aluminium US$2,589/t vs US$2,566/t previous

Nickel US$15,140/t vs US$14,975/t previous

Zinc US$2,757/t vs US$2,699/t previous

Lead US$1,993/t vs US$1,976/t previous

Tin US$33,380/t vs US$32,752/t previous 

Energy:

Oil US$69.8/bbl vs US$68.5/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices moved higher after the EU agreed a further package of sanctions against Russia, which includes lowering the G7’s price cap for buying Russian crude oil from $60/bbl to $47.6/bbl.
• US Henry Hub natural gas prices were stable as the EIA reported a 46bcf w/w build to 3,052bcf, with storage inventories 4.9% below last year and 6.2% above the 5-year average.
• Baghdad has approved a plan for the Kurdistan Regional Government to supply Iraq’s state oil marketer SOMO with at least 230kb/d for export sales, which has been constrained since the pipeline was closed in March 2023.
• BP expects to complete a deal with LS Power by the end of the year to sell its US onshore wind energy business, which comprises 10 operating wind assets with a total generating capacity of 1.3GW net

Henry Hub Gas US$3.58/mmBtu vs US$3.57/mmBtu yesterday

Natural Gas €34.5/MWh vs €35.1/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $71.3/lb vs $72.3/lb previous 

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (cfr Dalian) US$110.4/t vs US$106.6/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$459.6/t vs US$459.2/t

HCC FOB Australia US$177.0/t vs US$178.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$112.3/t vs US$113.8/t 

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$33,335/t vs US$33,335/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$66,511/t vs US$66,209/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$9,165/t vs US$8,851/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$730/t vs US$700/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$995/t vs US$995/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$433/mtu vs US$433/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$410/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.0/lb vs US$5.0/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.8/kg vs US$23.8/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$286/t vs US$289/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,093/t vs US$1,094/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$362.5/t vs US$362.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$2,925.0/kg vs US$2,925.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

EV and battery news

New EV grant for UK buyers

• The UK government has announced a new grant offering up to £3,750 off eligible new EVs, in an attempt to boost sluggish sales.
• The grant is available to buyers given the vehicle meets specific criteria.
  • Car must cost under £37,000 (list price)
  • Fully electric
  • Offer ≥100 miles real-world range
  • Have minimum 3-year/60,000-mile warranty (battery: 8-year/100,000 miles)
  • The manufacturer must meet green production standards (via a points-based system weighted 70% for battery sustainability and 30% for vehicle assembly)
• The scheme will run until 2029, and the government have allocated £650m to it – the scheme could end earlier if the funds are used before the deadline.

Jaguar Land Rover delays electric models citing weak demand

• Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), has delayed the planned launches of its new electric Range Rover and electric Jaguar models to give it time for more testing and for demand to pick up.
• The models were cited to launch towards the end of 2025, but are now expected to launch at some point in 2026.
• JLR has been effected by Donald Trump’s tariffs in recent months and this week it reported a 15.1% drop in sales in the three months to June after a temporary pause in exports to the US.

Uber to invest $300m into Lucid EVs for planned robotaxi venture

• Ride sharing company Uber is set to invest $300m in Lucid EVs over the six years, from 2026, to acquire and deploy 20,000 Lucid Gravity EVs with autonomous vehicle (AV) technology.
• The AV technology is being developed by US startup, Nuro.
• The move signals Uber’s latest move back into the robotaxi space after exiting it in 2020 – the company has also recently signed agreements with other AV technology developers Waymo and Aurora.

Technology Minerals receives funding to accelerate Lithium-ion battery project

• Technology Minerals, the first UK listed company focused on creating a sustainable circular economy for battery metals, has announced its recycling business, Recyclus Group has secured  £8.1m in funding via a consortium with Mint Innovation, Jaguar Land Rover and the University of Warwick.

• The £8.1m investment is jointly funded by the Department for Business and Trade through the Advanced Propulsion Centre collaborative R&D funding programme, and by the project partners themselves who are collectively contributing 50% of the total programme spend.
• The project will look prove Mint’s low-carbon, hydrometallurgical black mass refining technology at demonstration scale, with recycled critical materials such as lithium, nickel and cobalt produced as part of an onshore circular battery supply chain for EVs.

Company News

Atlantic Lithium* (ALL LN) 7.8p, Mkt Cap £54m – Minister confirms Ghana Cabinet has authorised revised terms of the Mining Lease be negotiated and presented for review by Cabinet

1. Atlantic Lithium reports on comments made during the Ghana parliamentary session on Wednesday.
2. The Minister of Lands and Natural Resources confirmed the Cabinet had authorised that revised terms of the Mining Lease be negotiated and presented for review by Cabinet, and by Parliament thereafter, per the necessary process for parliamentary ratification.
3. The Minister also highlighted the importance of the job creation noting the immense support from residents in the Project’s catchment area in addition to the economic benefits expected from the Ewoyaa project.
4. The Mining Lease was granted in October 2023 when lithium prices were much higher.
5. Since then the substantial pull-back in lithium prices require adjustment to the fiscal terms to ensure economic viability at lower than envisaged price levels.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Atlantic Lithium

Hamak Gold (HAMA LN) 1.92p, Mkt cap £8.7m – Appointment of Dr Laffer of the Laffer Curve as Hamak pursue a Bitcoin Management strategy in addition to gold exploration in Liberia, West Africa

• Hamak Gold reports the appointment of Dr Arthur Laffer, who is world renowned in economic circles for the Laffer Curve, which helps to describe the relationship between tax rates and government revenue.
• Dr. Arthur B. Laffer, was influential in shaping US fiscal policy during the Reagan administration and served as an economic advisor to the Trump 1 presidential campaign.
• “Dr. Laffer brings extensive insight into macroeconomic strategy and the growing adoption of digital assets” and is a “strong advocate for Bitcoin and decentralised monetary systems”.
• Dr Laffer was was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom by President Trump in 2019.
• Mining and economics are inevitably intertwined through the benefits of proper economic forecasting and the importance of assessing mineral projects on their economic merits.
• Hamak Gold recently placed £2,467,000 of stock at £0.008/s to investors including Private Office of Sheik Nayef Bin Eid Al Thani, a member of the Qatari Royal Family.
• The issue included a 1-for-1 warrant at the issue price, (£0.008/s) exercisable for a period of two years from the date of this announcement and subject to a one-year lock-in.
• Hamak are working on gold exploration in Liberia, West Africa but are also looking to develop some form of bitcoin treasury management.
• Management plan to offer “a substantial Bitcoin asset base, offering transparency, institutional-grade security, and governance oversight through our listing”.

Conclusion: The appointment of Dr Laffer reflects the company’s stated intention to pursue a Bitcoin Management Strategy alongside their gold exploration in Liberia. We hope the current UK Chancellor takes into account Dr Laffer’s work before the Autumn budget.

Kavango Resources* (KAV LN) 1.18p, Mkt Cap £34m – Latest drilling results from Bill’s Luck, Hillside, Zimbabwe

(Kavango hold 100% of the Hillside license area in Zimbabwe)

• Kavango Resources reports that hole BLDDUG-006, drilled from No.2 Level at the Bill’s Luck gold mine within the Hillside license area in Zimbabwe has intersected 10.4m of mineralisation at an average grade of 13.6g/t gold 111.5m below surface.
• The intersection, between 64-74m downhole includes a higher-grade section of 2.8m at an average grade of 48.5g/t gold within the wider mineralised zone and a second intersection of 1.10g/t gold over a width of 3.1m from 71.3m depth.
• The company explains that the 10.4m intersection, the ‘First Intersection’ “appears to be the down dip continuity of the Bill’s Luck Main Reef”.
• “The Second Intersection appears to be a parallel reef that lies further into the hanging wall. This appears coincidental with intersections in BLDDUG003” which reported 1.34g/t gold over a width of 2.34m in an announcement released in June.
• CEO, Ben Turney, commented that “This is the second high grade intercept we’ve encountered, a short distance below our current mining level”.
• He added that the latest intersection “confirms that the main Bill’s Luck ore shoot remains open at depth and appears to be increasing in grade”.
• He also confirmed that the “objective of the surface drilling will be to define a gold resource large enough to support mining and processing operations for a minimum of three years. We will seek to confirm the width of the main Bill’s Luck ore shoot and test the next inferred ore shoot at Roscor. If successful, this work will underpin the investment case for the 200 tonne per day (tpd) pilot production plant”.
• The underground drilling will continue to aid “near-term mine planning”.
• Today’s announcement also confirms that “Construction of our 50tpd test production plant is already underway, with commissioning expected later this year”.

Conclusion:  The identification of further high-grade gold and apparent continuation of the Main Reef at Bills Luck is good news.

The identification of a parallel reef albeit at a relatively low grade and over a narrower width is also interesting and may serve to highlight the variability of the reefs as they pinch and swell.

*Two SP Angel Analysts recently visited Kavango’s Hillside mines and licenses in Zimbabwe. An SP Angel analyst holds shares in Kavango

Robex Resources (RXR AU) A$3.6, Mkt Cap A$828m – Kiniero development update

• The Company updated on the progress of development works at the Kiniero Gold Project, Guinea.
• Construction remains on schedule and budget with first gold pour targeted 4QCY25.
• Kiniero is guided to run at 139kozpa over 9y LOM (154koz first 6y)
• 5mtpa CIL plant to treat 0.97g/t material at 86% recoveries.
• $1,066/oz AISC.
• Reserves 46mt at 0.97g/t for 1.4moz.
• Resources 117mt at 1.00g/t for 3.7moz including 45mt at 1.05g/t for 1.5moz Inferred.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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