SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Friday 16th May 2025

Gold rises on weaker US dollar as US inflation falls

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Alba Mineral Resources (ALBA LN) – Progress report on the Welsh and Swedish projects

Aterian plc* (ATN LN) – Rwanda’s Trinity Metals signs tin export agreement with the US

SolGold* (SOLG LN) – Quarterly report describes progress on Cascabel as management refines and de-risks the project

Versarien* (VRS LN) – Versarien report the raising of further funding for the development of graphene in mortar for 3D construction

Economics

US – Tariff relief for China eases trade tensions

• Factories which were preparing to suspend and shut production are looking forward to some respite from lower US tariffs on China.
• The move to closer to 30% from 145% should enable many factories to consider some sales into the US
• China has reduced its tariffs on US imports to 10% from 125%.
• Many Chinese factories suspended production at 50% US import tariffs highlighting the sensitivity to the additional cost on US orders.

Japan – Q1 GDP contracts -0.2% qoq on lower exports

• Exports fell -0.6% qoq
• Imports rose 2.9% qoq.
• Private consumption was flat
• Capital expenditure rose 1.4% qoq.
• Inflation saw the GDP deflator rising to 3.3% yoy from 2.9% yoy

Mali – Malian Judge to consider Barrick request to reopen the Loulo-Gounkoto gold mine under a provisional administration

• The Mali military government has asked a judge to rule on the reopening of Barrick’s Loulo-Gounkoto gold mine under provisional administration.
• The move piles additional pressure on Barrick to settle Mali’s financial claims against Barrick’s Mali operations.
• Reports indicate Barrick were close to settling at around US$470m but that the Mali government claims Barrick has signed the wrong document.
• Further reports suggest the government may be asking for additional payment.
• The Mali government appears to have become more focussed on increasing its funding from the mining sector since the withdrawal of French forces who had been defending the territory from armed groups in the north.
• Wagner, the mercenary group, stepped into the breach for a price but have been ineffective in defending Mali from terrorist attacks.
• An attack last August saw >70 people killed by attacks on a military training barracks and the Modibo Keita International Airport in Bamako by an Al-Qaeda-linked group.

Currencies

US$1.130/eur vs.1.121/eur previous . Yen 145.26/$ vs 145.80/$ previous . SAr 18.073/$ vs 18.080/$ previous . US$1.332/gbp vs $1.328/gbp previous . US$0.643/aud vs 0.642/aud previous . CNY 7.203/$ vs 7.210/$ previous

Dollar Index 100.63 vs 101.04 previous

Precious metals:

Gold US$3,204vs US$3,132/oz. previous

Gold ETFs 88.4moz vs 88.7moz. previous

Platinum US$994/oz vs US$984/oz. previous

Palladium US$962/oz vs US$944/oz. previous

Silver US$32.3/oz vs US$31.7oz. previous

Rhodium US$5,500/oz vs US$5,425/oz. previous

Base metals:

Copper US$9,492/t vs US$9,477/t. previous

Aluminium US$2,465/t vs US$2,497/t. previous

Nickel US$15,605/t vs US$15,600/t. previous

Zinc US$2,684/t vs US$2,723/t. previous

Lead US$1,991/t vs US$1,981/t. previous

Tin US$32,790/t vs US$32,725/t. previous

Energy:           

Oil US$64.3/bbl vs US$64.2/bbl previous

• The IEA’s May oil market report reiterated global oil demand growth forecasts of ~0.75mb/d in 2025 and 2026 driven entirely by emerging economies as the OECD countries show minor declines. US total supply growth is revised to 440kb/d and 180kb/d, respectively, but this is more than offset by higher forecast OPEC+ output.
• US Henry Hub natural gas prices edged lower after the EIA reported a 110bcf w/w build to 2,255bcf (+111bcf exp), with storage inventories now 14.3% below last year but 2.6% above the 5-year average.

Natural Gas €34.9/MWh vs €35.2/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $71.6/lb vs $71.6/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$100.3/t vs US$101.8/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$469.5/t vs US$469.5/t

HCC FOB Australia US$189.5/t vs US$190.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$102.5/t vs US$101.5/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$33,700/t vs US$33,700/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$60,216/t vs US$60,207/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$8,768/t vs US$8,809/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$685/t vs US$685/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,112/t vs US$1,113/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$398/mtu vs US$388/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$430/t vs US$430/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.2/lb vs US$5.2/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.4/kg vs US$24.4/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$287/t vs US$287/t

Global Rutile Spot Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,513/t vs US$1,513/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs  US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$357.5/t vs US$357.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$2,825.0/kg vs US$2,825.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

EV news

BYD to establish European headquarters in Hungary

• Chinese EV manufacturer BYD has plans to establish a European headquarters as it seeks to continue its expansion into the European market.
• BYD has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with the Hungarian government to build a headquarters and establish a European R&D centre in Budapest.
• The new HQ will have three main functions; sales/after sales, vehicle certification and testing, and localisation design and development.
• BYD already has a strong presence in Hungary, having built its first production site in 2016 and in the process of building a second facility to produce NEVs.
• The plan is expected to generate thousands of jobs in Hungary.

Company news

Alba Mineral Resources (ALBA LN) 0.02p, Mkt cap £2.8m – Progress report on the Welsh and Swedish projects

• Alba Mineral Resources confirms that its onsite pilot plant continues to process material from the waste tip at its Clogau St David’s mine in North Wales
• The company confirms that “Concentrates from this latest processing exercise have shown visible gold on the table, however grades and gold content are not known at this stage”.
• Today’s announcement also confirms that it “has been finalising its plans for the next round of underground blasting” following receipt of “a multi-year renewal of its exclusive exploration rights over the Clogau Gold Mine and surrounding areas”.
• Last month the company reported the sale of coins produced from gold recovered from the pilot plant at the mine which realised gold prices of ~£20,000/oz.
• The company also reports that it has “commissioned a Finnish contractor specialised in the carrying out of geophysical surveys to perform a ground-based magnetic survey and data processing exercise on a key target area within the Finnsbo licence in … [southern] … Sweden”.
• Work is expected to start on the “high-grade gold and rare earth prospect … in the next few days”.
• The geophysical work aims to identify drilling targets and the company comments that “the presence of historical magnetite mining operations in the area could lead to further magnetite iron ore occurrences being located”.
• Executive Chairman, George Frangeskides, commented that the “forthcoming survey should help us to understand better the potential scale of the target area”.

Aterian plc* (ATN LN) 39.5p, Mkt Cap £3.8m – Rwanda’s Trinity Metals signs tin export agreement with the US

(Rio Tinto jv has the option to invest US$7.5m in two stages to earn up to 75% in the HCK lithium and tantalum hard rock prospect in Rwanda)

(Rwanda: Aterian holds an effective 100% stake in the Musasa Mining Licenses plus a 70% interest in Kinunga Mining Limited which holds the HCK licence alongside HCK Mining Company Limited which has a 30% interest.)

(Botswana: Aterian also holds a 90% in Atlantis Metals which holds its licenses in Botswana). (Morocco: Aterian holds 100% on all licenses held in Morocco)

• The US has signed a tin supply agreement with Trinity Metals for access to its mined products.
• Nathan Trotter, a US tin alloy manufacturer, based in Pennsylvania signed the Trinity Metals deal in the presence of a US State Department official from the Bureau of Energy Resources.
• Rwanda exported nearly 5,000t of tin concentrates (cassiterite)
• The US imported nearly US$1bn of tin
• Trinity Metals mines between 75tpa tin, tungsten and tantalum at the Rutongo and Musha mines in Rwanda
• Musha-Ntunga produces around 200tpa of tin alongside some coltan from the Duha and Ntunga satellite sites.
  • The Musha mine also contains high-grade Lithium, principally on the Ntunga’s pegmatites
• Rutonga which started in 1931 plans to ramp up to 2,400tpa of recoverable tin from the current 650tpa over the next five years
• Nyakabingo prosduces some 600tpa of tungsten ore from underground operations
• Trinity is backed by Techmet which appears to have close ties to the US State Department.
• Trinity received a $3.8m of grant funding from the US DFC last year for technical assistance with the funding allocated to Trinity’s ESG projects.

Conclusion:  The Trinity deal highlights the value and benefits of tin, tungsten and tantalum mining in Rwanda. Aterian have a number of promising licenses in Rwanda and recently restarted trading tin and other metals in the region. We await the results of assays from Rio Tinto for drilling on the HCK project

*SP Angel acts as Broker to Aterian Plc

SolGold* (SOLG LN) 7.08p, Mkt Cap £212m – Quarterly report describes progress on Cascabel as management refines and de-risks the project

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1. Reporting on the three months to 31^st March, Solgold highlights enhancements to its senior management team as well as its revised agreement with the Ecuadorian Government for the development of its Cacabel copper/gold project, progress with the Porvenir exploration project and a US$18.1m investment from Jiangxi Copper, which now holds >12% of the company.
2. Sogold reports a loss for the 9 months to 31^st March 2025 of US$26.8m (2024 – US$52.7m) and a closing cash balance of US$18.7m.
3. The agreement with Jiangxi Copper includes the possibility of it providing technical advice and support.
4. The company reports that the Phase 1 Feasibility Study for Cascabel was 74% complete by the end of the quarter and that a “new 5,400m TAM … [the Tandayama America project located in the Cascabel Licence around 3km north of the Alpala deposit] … drill program was approved and is set to begin in May 2025, targeting early-stage open-pit development for integration into the overall project plan”.
5. Solgold highlights Feasibility Study progress including “completion of geological block models and resource estimates, selection of Esmeraldas Port as the export site, and progress on alternative tailings storage evaluations”.
6. The revised agreement with the Government under the Amended Investment Protection Agreement’ (AIPA) provides “long-term legal and fiscal stability for the Cascabel Project … [while] … acknowledging over US$311 million in historical investment” arising from the exploration of the project.
7. The new agreement is expected to assist in the release of additional funds under the “syndicated gold stream financing agreement with Franco-Nevada … and Osisko”, which was announced in July last year.
8. The company also highlights progress at its Porvenir exploration project in southern Ecuador “which contains a resource of approximately 493.7 million tonnes grading 0.43% CuEq” and where Solgold has “recently secured an advanced exploration permit, enabling the Company to progress toward additional evaluation activities and potential development pathways”.
9. Other exploration projects “include the Blanca-Nieves project, where high-grade gold mineralization has been identified across multiple vein systems, and the Cielito Norte prospect, where soil sampling has defined large-scale geochemical anomalies”.
10. Solgold acknowledges that “exploration activity across the regional portfolio remains limited due to capital preservation and focus on Cascabel” but confirms that all its exploration projects remain “in good standing”.
11. Chief Executive, Dan Vujcic, explained that “This quarter reflects management’s new direction and drive toward the delivery of a technically robust Cascabel. The AIPA marks a key de-risking milestone”.
12. He explained that “Jiangxi Copper’s continued investment signals confidence in the project’s value … [and confirmed that the new management team is] … focused on executing the new strategy, which we anticipate releasing in the coming weeks”.

Conclusion: We look forward to clarification of the new development strategy for Cascabel which, we speculate, may include development of an open-pit operation, possibly at Tandayama America, in parallel with the underground development of the Alpala deposit at Cascabel.

*SP Angel acts as broker to Solgold

Versarien* (VRS LN) 0.029p, Mkt Cap £1.25m – Versarien report the raising of further funding for the development of graphene in mortar for 3D construction

• Versarien report the raising of £425,000 through the placing of 1,5m new shares at 0.0275p/s.
• The funds are for the acquisition of a mortar mixing plant for the optimisation of its 3D construction for ongoing project commitments.
• Management are also in ‘advanced discussions’ with a strategic investor with near-term prospect for further meaningful funding.
• The team is also in talks for the sale of Versarien’s ‘Total Carbide’ subsidiary.

Conclusion:  Versarien has much going for it. Sales of Graphene for biosensors, inks for Graphene wear are helping to support development costs as management complete the sale of the remaining non-core assets. The new 3D mortars and Cementene™ product offer tremendous potential for growth as they become accredited and proven within the construction industry.

We can see Cementene™ becoming a must-have additive for construction in time as the industry starts to appreciate the benefits of added strength and water resistance offered in the mix.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Versarien

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne – Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees – Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

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+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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