SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Friday 13th June 2025

Gold jumps towards record high as Israel strikes Iran

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Adriatic Metals (ADT LN) – Cash and Share offer from Dundee Precious Metals

Atlantic Tin (Unlisted) – Offer period extended on A$98m recommended offer from Inner Mongolia Xingye Mining

Perpetua Resources (PPTA US) – Upsized equity raise

Phoenix Copper (PXC LN) – £500k placing to support working capital needs

Vulcan Energy (VUL AU) – 30MW geothermal renewable energy plant secures construction approvals

Gold ($3,420/oz) jumps towards record high as Israel strikes Iran

• Gold prices jumped $3,445/oz this morning before settling back to $3,424/oz on news of Israel’s strike on Iran and Iranian missiles into Israel.
• Bonds have also rallied, suggesting a wider move to seek haven assets.
• The US 10 year has fallen below 4.35%, supported by a cool CPI reading and rising demand for haven assets.
• The dollar remains near 2022 lows but is green today against a basket of currencies.
• Mossad agents reportedly infiltrated Iran several weeks ago and planted missile batteries and explosive drones.
• Iran has raised the red flag of revenge above the Jakaran Mosque.

Rare Earths – China likely to re-run REE embargo in six months

• China has squeezed Trump’s proverbials through export restrictions on REEs and products containing critical REEs.
• We know the West produces very little REE metal oxides but politicians appear naive about the REE magnets which are also largely sourced from China.
• Given, Western scientists and engineers first developed many of the products where REEs are so critical it is interesting that China has been able to strangle global manufacturers through its dominance in this sector.
• It’s not as if we couldn’t see it coming, but cleaner, cost-effective solutions are taking their time to develop, largely due to a lack of funding in recent years in the mining industry.
• Dedicated companies include:
  • Mkango Resources (recycling of disk drives and other REE magnets)
  • Ionic Rare Earths (recycling of windmill turbine magnets)
  • Rainbow Rare Earths (phosphate residue reprocessing)
• Rare earths are also byproducts of phosphate ores and mineral sands but these are low grade and do not always include the more -critical heavy rare earths
  • Iluka, Energy Fuels (Base Resources), Kenmare Resources, Rio Tinto are the key mineral sands producers.
• Unfortunately, byproduct production is far below that needed by the west and we suspect much of this is also processed in China.

Trade IG: Trading Experiences with Angeline Ong: 

Vox Markets: Mining Matters: https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/articles/mining-matters-sp-angel-s-john-meyer-on-commodities-capital-and-change-7c82c6d/

SharePickers: Copper – We’ve Never Seen This Before in the World: Video: 

Podcast: https://audioboom.com/channels/4099560-the-sharepickers-podcast-with-justin-waite

G7 meeting likely to confirm Western support for Ukraine and greater sanctions on Russia and potential further restrictions on China

• G7 meeting in Canada to include Australia, Brazil, Mexico, India, Indonesia South Africa, South Korea, Ukraine alongside the core members, the US, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK and the EU.
• We are surprised to see South Africa in the attendees but not surprised that China and Russia will not be present.

US – Equity futures sold off on a general risk off sentiment following news of Israel strikes on Iran.

• The US said it was not involved in the attack that happened ahead of a planned sixth round of negotiations on Sunday.
• “Israel advised us that they believe this action was necessary for its self-defence,” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said.
• “Let me be clear: Iran should not target US interests or personnel.”
• S&P and Nasdaq futures are down 1.2% and 1.3% this morning.
• Yields pulled back, the US dollar was as were gold prices that crossed the US$3,400/oz mark.

China – Opening of financial market to foreign investors will serve to increase popularity of its currency

• China has a longer term aim to broaden the appeal of the Yuan and reduce the dominance of the US dollar in global financial markets.
• While the BoC and CCP maintains currency controls a recent SHFE consultation document indicates the SHFE may open to global investors quite soon.
• This gradual liberalisation of the market suggests the CCP may be accelerating a staged move to broaden the appeal of the Yuan.
• Stimulus of domestic demand in China alongside increasing trade with non-US parties should reduce China’s dependence on sales into the US rendering US Tariffs less relevant.
• Chinese trade data shows a growing surpluses despite a substantial fall in trade with the US.
• China reported a trade surplus of US$103bn for May on a 4.8% rise in exports as imports fell 3.4%
• China’s trade with the US fell 34.5% yoy to US$28.8bn after a 21% yoy fall in Apr.
• China increased trade with its ASEAN neighbours by 14.8% yoy and by a further 12% with the EU.

Israel – Israel launches air strikes against Iran military facilities and nuclear sites killing its top two commanders overnight.

• Operation Rising Lion is was reported to “roll back the Iranian threat to Israel’ very survival”.
• One of the nation’s two main nuclear plants was hit as well as the main command headquarters of the Revolutionary Guards.
• Major General Hossein Salami, head of the elite Revolutionary Guards, and Iran’s armed forces chief of staff Major General Mohammad Bagheri were killed.
• The operation may continue several weeks, FT cites officials familiar with the matter.
• Iran is said to have launched over 100 drones over the last few hours.
• Brent prices surged as much as 12.5% before paring back to trade 5% higher at over $73 in London.

Iran – Uranium enrichment, proxy militias and anti-Israel rhetoric has provokes Israel to strike nuclear facilities and military leaders in Iran

• Iran has responded with a huge barrage of Shahed drones and ballistic missiles.
• One report suggests ~200 Shahed drones were launched ahead of ballistic missiles in a coordinated effort to overwhelm Israel’s Iron Dome defences.
• US and UK fighter jets and systems are operating to shoot down as many missiles as possible.
• Iran may also strike at shipping and oil fields and refineries in the Persian Gulf.
• This war will not finish till there is regime change in Iran and the ayatollahs are removed from political power in Iran
• Iran’s sponsorship of atrocities by Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and other anti-Israel groups has pushed Israel into retaliation.
• The potential for Iran to detonate a ‘dirty’ bomb if not a full thermonuclear warhead over Israel is not something the latter was ever going to wait for.
• The action may also distract news services from the near-constant news on Gaza.

Currencies

US$1.1546/eur vs 1.1510/eur previous. Yen 143.68/$ vs 144.06/$. SAr 18.015/$ vs 17.823/$. $1.355/gbp vs $1.354/gbp. 0.648/aud vs 0.649/aud. CNY 7.181/$ vs 7.182/$.

Dollar Index 99.12 vs 99.12

Precious metals:         

Gold US$3,415/oz vs US$3,352/oz previous

   Gold ETFs 88.7moz vs 88.5moz previous

Platinum US$1,276/oz vs US$1,257/oz previous

Palladium US$1,054/oz vs US$1,058/oz previous

Silver US$36.2/oz vs US$35.7/oz previous

Rhodium US$5,525/oz vs US$5,500/oz previous

Base metals:   

Copper US$9,604/t vs US$9,648/t previous

Aluminium US$2,502/t vs US$2,517/t previous

Nickel US$15,115/t vs US$15,120/t previous

Zinc US$2,611/t vs US$2,651/t previous

Lead US$1,994/t vs US$1,989/t previous

Tin US$32,630/t vs US$32,640/t previous

Energy:           

Oil US$72.9/bbl vs US$69.1/bbl previous

• Crude oil prices surged higher following Israel’s overnight military strikes on Iran, which targeted the latter’s nuclear programme as well as several key members of the armed forces.
• US Henry Hub natural gas prices were stable after the EIA reported a 109bcf w/w build to 2,707bcf (+108bcf exp), with storage inventories now 8.6% below last year and 5.4% above the 5-year average.

Natural Gas €37.2/MWh vs €36.2/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $69.7/lb vs $70.0/lb previous

Bulk:   

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$95.3/t vs US$95.5/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$463.2/t vs US$464.0/t

HCC FOB Australia US$180.0/t vs US$181.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$107.8/t vs US$106.8/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$33,335/t vs US$33,335/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$61,831/t vs US$61,962/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$8,425/t vs US$8,466/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$610/t vs US$610/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$995/t vs US$995/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$418/mtu vs US$418/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$420/t vs US$420/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.0/lb vs US$5.0/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.6/kg vs US$24.6/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$361/t vs US$361/t

Global Rutile Spot Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,465/t vs US$1,465/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$365.0/t vs US$365.0/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$2,865.0/kg vs US$2,845.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg

Battery News

Company News

Adriatic Metals (ADT LN) 250p, Mkt Cap £60m – Cash and Share offer from Dundee Precious Metals

• Adriatic has agreed to a recommended acquisition from Dundee Precious Metals.
• Adriatic shareholders will receive 0.159 DPM shares and £0.93 in cash.
• The Transaction values ADT shares at £2.68 and the Company at US$1.25bn based on DPM’s 11^th June closing price.
• The deal represents a 34% premium to the 30 day VWAP as of 20^th May 2025.
• ADT shareholders will own 25% of the pro-forma Company.
• Adriatic notes that DPM has a strong track record in the Balkans and has built good relations with local governments and communities.
• DPM also owns the producing Chelopech mine in Bulrgaria, the Ada Tepe gold mine in Southern Bulglaria and is progressing the FS-stage Coka Rakita project.
• Chelopech currently is set to produce 160-15koz at AISC of $550-650oz, net of by-products in 2025E.
• Ada Tepe is expected to produce c.80koz in 2025E at AISC of $840-960/oz.
• Coka Rakita holds a PFS showing reserves of 1.36moz Au at 6.38gt, with CAPEX estimated at $379m for 170kozpa (first five years)
• Vares holds processing capacity of 850ktpa, expecting to produce 170kozpa GEO at AISC of $893/oz from 2027-2035.
• There are plans to boost ore grades via ore sorting, extend mineralisation to the North-West and explore the wider Dinarides mineral belt.
• The pro-forma operation is expected to produce 628kozpa GEO from 2027.

Conclusion: A good deal for Adriatic shareholders following an extended ramp-up process at Vares. We are fans of the Dundee team and see the potential for the pro-forma entity to build an exciting Balkan story, hitting nameplate at Vares and bringing Coka Rakita into production by 2027. Focus will be on optimising the Vares processing plant, regional exploration and sustaining the current high-margin Bulgarian operations. Zijin may be a potential interloper, given their presence in the region, although we see this as an unlikely outcome.

Atlantic Tin (Unlisted) – Offer period extended on A$98m recommended offer from Inner Mongolia Xingye Mining

• Atlantic Tin report the extension of the offer period in relation to the agreed A$98m offer from Inner Mongolia Xingye Silver and Tin Mining.
• Atlantic holds the Achmmach tin mine in Morocco (formerly Kasbah Resources)
• Atlantic also acquired the El Hammam mine, just 7km from Achmmach, from Managem in August 2024.
• The plan was to concentrate tin ore from Achmmach using plant capacity at El Hammam which has a two-stage crushing plant, milling, flotation, thickening and filtering in place as well as power and water.
• Production was expected to start in 2026 building up to “a sustained mining and processing rate of 900,000 tpa of ore”.
• A DFS based on an 18- month construction schedule with commercial tin production starting in 2026 and ramping up to a sustained mining and processing rate of 900,000 tpa of ore was planned.
• We believe the region remains highly prospective for tin exploration.

Perpetua Resources (PPTA US) US$13, Mkt Cap US$938m – Upsized equity raise

• The Company upsized its previously announced equity placing by US$25m to $425m.
• Bought part of the deal was increased as part of strong demand from investors.

Phoenix Copper (PXC LN) 4.6p, Mkt Cap £2m – £500k placing to support working capital needs

• Phoenix Copper, who hold the Empire copper project in Idaho, have completed a placing.
• The Company has raised £500k gross through the placing of 12.5m new shares at 4p.
• Phoenix states proceeds will support working capital requirements ‘while it finalises the proposed $75m placement of corporate copper bonds.’

Vulcan Energy (VUL AU) A$3.8, Mkt Cap A$855m – 30MW geothermal renewable energy plant secures construction approvals

• The Company received building approvals for the 30MW geothermal renewable energy plant and electrical substation on its Phase One Lionheart Project in Germany.
• Power generated will be used both for sales into the grid and its planned DLE operations.
• The Company is already producing from a smaller 4.8MW plant nearby while selling renewable heat from a separate location.

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

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