Copper breaks higher as Freeport’s Grasberg remains suspended following incident
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
G2 Goldfields (GTWO CN) – C$50m equity raise to progress Oko-Ghanie gold project
Kore Potash* (KP2 LN) – Interim Results
K92 Mining (KNT CN) – Exploration programme gains steam in Papa New Guinea
Ora Banda (OBM AU) – Focus on resource expansion and conversion
OR Royalties (OR CN) – Development portfolio update
Copper ($10,092/t) breaks higher as Freeport’s Grasberg remains suspended following incident
- Copper prices have rallied on a combination of the weaker dollar and a supply disruption from Indonesia.
- Freeport announced yesterday that mining operations at Grasberg remain suspended as they work to evacuate seven workers.
- Grasberg produced c.800kt Cu in 2024.
- Meanwhile weaker US economic data and slowing inflation is weighing on the US dollar, as US Treasury yields slide further.
- Chinese economic sentiment is improving, with iron ore also rallying alongside other base metals including zinc, aluminium and nickel.
IGTV – The Future of Mining: Gold, Copper, Rare Earths & M&A: https://youtu.be/-G59iOq6x2c?si=z4fVkyHNP9isbOTB
The News Forum – The Buck Stops Here: https://www.thenewsforum.ca/series/thebuckstopshere
| Dow Jones Industrials | +1.36% | at | 46,108 | |
| Nikkei 225 | +0.89% | at | 44,768 | |
| HK Hang Seng | +1.10% | at | 26,373 | |
| Shanghai Composite | -0.12% | at | 3,871 | |
| US 10 Year Yield (bp change) | +1.1 | at | 4.03 |
Economics
US
- Core CPI mom: 0.3%, 0.3% expected, 0.3% previous
- Core CPI yoy: 3.1%, 3.1% expected, 3.1% previous
- Initial jobless claims: 265k vs 235k expected
- Continuing claims: 1,939k vs 1,950k expected
Currencies
US$1.1740/eur vs 1.1691/eur previous. Yen 147.44/$ vs 147.80/$. SAr 17.370/$ vs 17.541/$. $1.357/gbp vs $1.351/gbp. 0.666/aud vs 0.661/aud. CNY 7.121/$ vs 7.123/$.
Dollar Index 97.55 vs 97.93 previous.
Precious metals:
Gold US$3,650/oz vs US$3,627/oz previous
Gold ETFs 94.6moz vs 94.7moz previous
Platinum US$1,391/oz vs US$1,382/oz previous
Palladium US$1,213/oz vs US$1,176/oz previous
Silver US$42.2/oz vs US$41.0/oz previous
Rhodium US$7,125/oz vs US$7,150/oz previous
Base metals:
Copper US$10,118/t vs US$10,005/t previous
Aluminium US$2,689/t vs US$2,637/t previous
Nickel US$15,370/t vs US$15,095/t previous
Zinc US$2,915/t vs US$2,889/t previous
Lead US$2,001/t vs US$1,986/t previous
Tin US$34,945/t vs US$34,715/t previous
Energy:
Oil US$65.9/bbl vs US$67.4/bbl previous
- Crude oil prices fell after the IEA estimated global oil supply rose in August to a record 106.9mb/d as OPEC+ unwound output cuts and non-OPEC+ supply hovered near all-time highs. Global oil supply is now projected to rise by 2.7mb/d to 105.8mb/d in 2025 and 2.1mb/d to 107.9mb/d in 2026, far exceeding demand growth of ~0.7mb/d in each year.
- US Henry Hub natural gas prices fell below $3/mmBtu as the EIA reported a higher-than-expected 71bcf w/w build to 3,343bcf (+56bcf exp), with storage inventories 1.1% below last year and 6% above the 5-year average as LNG exports fell 0.1bcf/d w/w to 16bcf/d.
Natural Gas €32.3/MWh vs €33.1/MWh previous
Uranium Futures $76.3/lb vs $76.3/lb previous
Bulk:
Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (cfr Dalian) US$113.2/t vs US$118.7/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$454.6/t vs US$454.4/t
HCC FOB Australia US$186.8/t vs US$187.0/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$102.0/t vs US$103.3/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$33,335/t vs US$33,335/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$77,519/t vs US$78,620/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$9,760/t vs US$9,757/t
China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$800/t vs US$820/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,015/t vs US$1,015/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$528/mtu vs US$528/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$400/t vs US$400/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.4/lb vs US$5.4/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.8/kg vs US$23.8/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$270/t vs US$270/t
China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,102/t vs US$1,102/t
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$352.5/t vs US$352.5/t
Germanium China 99.99% US$3,075.0/kg vs US$3,075.0/kg
China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg
EV & battery news
ICE raid leads to 2-3 month delay at Hyundai battery plant in Georgia
- An immigration raid at Hyundai-LG’s battery plant construction site in Georgia has caused a startup delay of at least 2-3 months, CEO José Munoz said.
- About 475 workers, mostly South Korean nationals, were arrested, disrupting labour for installation of equipment.
- The plant is part of a $7.6bn EV battery complex, originally expected to come online later in 2025.
- Hyundai says it will source batteries from other plants meanwhile, including from its other Georgia facility co-owned with SK On.
| Overnight Change | Weekly Change | Overnight Change | Weekly Change | ||
| BHP | 1.3% | -1.9% | Freeport-McMoRan | 2.3% | -0.3% |
| Rio Tinto | 1.1% | -1.5% | Vale | 1.2% | 3.6% |
| Glencore | 2.1% | 6.2% | Newmont Mining | 1.6% | 6.4% |
| Anglo American | 1.4% | 13.0% | Fortescue | 0.9% | -0.4% |
| Antofagasta | 2.3% | 5.5% | Teck Resources | 2.8% | 27.4% |
Company news
G2 Goldfields (GTWO CN) C$3.5, Mkt Cap C$847m – C$50m equity raise to progress Oko-Ghanie gold project
- G2 Goldfields, who hold the Oko West project, have raised C$49.5m via private placement of 15m new shares at C$3.3/shr.
- Oko-Ghanie MRE:
- Global resource of 1.5moz at 3.4g/t Au indicated, 1.6moz at 2.48g/t Au inferred.
- Management notes the backing of the company’s two largest shareholders in the placing.
- The Company is aiming to deliver an updated MRE and a PEA in 4Q25.
- Insiders have subscribed for C$1m.
Kore Potash* (KP2 LN) 3.2p, Mkt Cap £155m – Interim Results
BUY – TP (Under Review)
- The Company reports financial results for the half year ending June 30th.
- Over the period, Kore, who are developing the Kola potash project, released an optimised DFS on the asset.
- This highlighted a 23 year LOM producing 2.2mtpa of MoP at an average cost FOB Brazil of $128/t.
- AT NPV10 of $1.7bn and IRR of 18% using $449/t CFR Brazil MoP prices.
- Kore is currently progressing financing for the project, having signed non-binding Term Sheets for total funding requirements for Kola with OWI-RAMS GMBH.
- OWI-RAMS GMBH has indicated its plans to arrange and provide a funding package of c.$2.2bn via senior secured project finance and royalty funding.
- Kore reports an operating loss of US$0.4m and exploration and evaluation spend at $7.4m.
- Over the period, Kore raised $10m with an additional $500k subsequently approved by shareholders.
- Cash position at 30th June reported at $3.5m.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Kore Potash
K92 Mining (KNT CN) C$17, Mkt Cap C$4.1bn – Exploration programme gains steam in Papa New Guinea
- PNG gold producer K92, who hold the Kainantu Gold Mine, provide exploration results.
- The Company has been conducting a programme 4.5km from their Kainantu operation, having drilled 67 holes.
- Company reports identification of a 3.5km x 3.5km mineralised system 10km southwest of their Kora and Judd deposits.
- Highlights:
- KARDD0065: 690m at 0.3% CuEq from 297m, intended to test extension of Arakompa and test a copper anomaly.
- A second hole has begun to test the potential porphyry identified.
- Drilling has extended Arakompa bulk tonnage zone to the north and south, now stretching over 1,100m and to a vertical depth of 800m. (200m additional strike and 150m additional depth)
- The Company has also begun drilling the recently discovered mineralised vein system at Wera .
Ora Banda (OBM AU) A$1.2, Mkt Cap A$2.2bn – Focus on resource expansion and conversion
- Australian gold producer Ora Band reports MRE and reserve updates.
- MRE estimated at 26.8mt at 2.4g/t Au for 2.1moz, up 160koz following 108koz mined.
- Reserves up 24% to 3mt at 2.4g/t Au for 236koz.
- Company notes updated reserves don’t include Sand King step outs and results from Little Gem, Waihi and Round Dam.
- Management expects to ‘drill significant extensional programs to extend and convert mineralisation at both mines in FY26.’
- Company conducting a A$73m exploration and resource development drilling programme in FY26
OR Royalties (OR CN) C$50, Mkt Cap C$9.3bn – Development portfolio update
- Royalty and streaming company OR Royalties provides an update on its development portfolio
- Management notes recent advancements across Cascabel, Cariboo, Marimaca’s MOD project, Spring Valley and Dalgaranga have boosted their confidence in development timelines.
- Cascabel
- OR holds a 0.6% NSR royalty over SolGold’s Cascabel, alongside a 6% stream to 225koz and 3.6% stream over LOM.
- OR highlights SolGold’s execution plan, which targets first production at 2028 via the phased development of the Tandayama-Ameríca open pit and Alpala Sub-Level Cave.
- Feed will initially be sourced from TAM open pit before underground ore is sourced in 4Q28.
- Company expects to build the processing plant and TSF in 4Q28.
- First Alpala block cave ore expected YE31.
- Decline access expected to be completed within the next 24 months.
- Cariboo
- Cariboo, operated by Appian, recently entered a funding agreement with an Appian-advised fund for $450m, alongside a $203m equity raise, for the development
- Cariboo holds reserves of 2.1moz at 3.62g/t Au.
- Production expected 2H27.
- OR holds a 5% NSR over the property
- Marimaca MOD
- The Marimaca Oxide Deposit, developed by Marimaca, recently outlined a DFS suggesting 49ktpa Cu over 13 years
- Further engineering and optimisation programmes, including metallurgical testwork, underway, with a funding package targeted for year end.
- OR holds a 1% NSR over Marimaca.
- Spring Valley
- Spring Valley, operated by Solidus, a Waterton company, is reportedly shovel-ready, with construction pending financing.
- The project sees 300kozpa over >10 years for 3.8moz in reserves.
- OR holds 2-3.5% NSR royaly over the Spring Valley Core, with the 3.5% core payable after 500koz produced.
- Dalgaranga
- Ramelius’ Dalgaranga is intended to support the target of hitting 500kozpa by 2030.
- First gold from Dalgaranga expected in FY26, with production set to jump in FY28.
- OR holds a 1.44% GRR over Dalgaranga and a 1.08-2.08% GRR over the neighbouring licences, held by Benz.
- Windfall
- Windfall, held by Gold Fields, is expected to receive permits in 1Q26, with FID targeted for 1Q26.
- First gold targeted for 2028.
- Windfall is expected to produce 300kozpa over >10 years.
- OR holds a 2-3% NSR over Windfall.
- Hermosa
- South32’s Hermosa zinc-lead silver project is currently seeing ongoing shaft sinking.
- FID targeted for FY26.
- OR holds a 1% NSR royalty over sulphide ores of lead and zinc produced.
LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:
No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025
No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024
No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024
Analysts
John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484
Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474
Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476
Sales
Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472
Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534
Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535
Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471
George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486
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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
| Sources of commodity prices | |
| Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver | BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London) |
| Gold ETFs, Steel | Bloomberg |
| Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt | LME |
| Oil Brent | ICE |
| Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore | NYMEX |
| Thermal Coal | Bloomberg OTC Composite |
| Coking Coal | SSY |
| RRE | Steelhome |
| Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite, Rutile | Asian Metal |
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