SP Angel Morning View -Today’s Market View, Friday 11th July 2025

Iron ore pushes higher on urban planning reform expectations in China

MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below

Almonty Industries (AII AU) – PFS for Sandong Tungsten Project, South Korea

Aston Bay Holdings (BAY CN) – First diamond drill hole of 2025 intersects visible copper mineralisation at depth

BeMetals* (BMET CN) – Ontario gold exploration project

MP Materials (MP US) – Major partnership with the US DoD to expand US magnet manufacturing capacity

Ora Banda (OBM AU) – 2026 cost guidance disappoints

Taseko Mines (TKO LN) – Yellowhead Copper technical report

URU Metals* (URU LN) – URU confirms higher-grade nickel sulphides across multiple zones at Zeb nickel polymetallic project in South Africa

Iron ore pushes higher on urban planning reform expectations in China

• Iron ore futures strengthened again towards $100/t in Singapore, having broken above $104/t in China.
• Social media reports have suggested that a meeting next week with Chinese officials will provide guidelines on shantytown renovations, boosting steel demand.
• Iron ore has now rallied for three weeks, supporting other steelmaking ingredients like coking coal.
• Mill profitability is also set to improve in China as Beijng cracks down on overcapacity, which will benefit higher-grade iron ore product values.

China – China is looking to hold anther CUWC ‘Central Urban Work Conference’ to make the urban environment more efficient and stimulate economic activity

• China held a CEWC ‘Central Economic Work Conference’ in December 2024 with the last CUWC in 2015.
• The need for another conference demonstrates how seriously the CPC is taking the structural reorganisation of Chinese consumption and industry.
• Iron ore prices have risen as the market looks for more construction stimulus, though China has a surplus of unfinished and unsold apartments.
• A flow of migrant workers back to their home villages has not helped the property market with many cities continuing to report falling property prices.
• Disruption to manufacturing industry from Trump’s Tariffs has not helped with factories moving fast to reduce working hours and pay.
• China doubled down on its Urban renewal programs last year attracting total investment of CNY2.9tn (~US$404bn).
• This involves the renovation of old residential communities, blocks, factory areas and urban villages in cities alongside the renovation of urban infrastructure.
• The Ministry of Finance pledged central budget support for the urban renewal initiative in up to 20 cities this year with priority on the larger cities and along key river channels including the Yellow and Pearl Rivers.
• Municipalities, along with cities in western regions, can receive up to CNY1.2bn yuan in subsidies for upgrade projects.
• Urban areas in China’s central regions can obtain up to CNY1bn. Eastern regions can receive up to CNY800m.
• Consumption is being stimulated by new-for-old trade-in policies which is driving strong EV and other mobile equipment sales but this comes at a heavy cost to public finances.

Gold ($3,333/oz) holds gains as Bitcoin rallies and VIX jumps on trade tensions

• Gold has been flat but held its gains after a sell-off earlier in the week.
• Escalating trade tensions between BRICs countries and the Trump administration has been supportive for gold prices.
• Platinum, Palladium and silver seem to be getting more attention, however, with reports that Chinese buyers are showing some price sensitivity following gold’s rally.
• Silver up 2.8% today, palladium up 2.6% and platinum up 1.3% and bitcoin up 6.2%.
• Whilst these gold ‘alternatives’ are seeing support from ETF buying, the real tailwind has been Central Bank buying and we would expect this to continue, especially as geopolitical tensions persist.

Economics

US – President Trump said Thursday he is considering a flat tariff of 15-20% on all trading partners should there be no trade deals agreed, double the current 10% rate.

• S&P and Nasdaq futures are off 0.5% this morning.
• Earlier President Trump suggested the administration will impose a 35% tariff on Canadian products starting August 1.

UK – The economy recorded another monthly contraction in May with both manufacturing and construction down and services posting only marginal growth.

• Headline reading came in below expectations for a slight expansion.
• Weaker growth adds to Labour government challenges to balance the books with Chancellor looking for ways to plug a fiscal hole that economists suggest could be more than £20bn.
• The pound traded lower following the announcement this morning.
• GDP (%mom, May/Apr/Est): -0.1/-0.3/0.1
• Industrial Production (%mom, May/Apr/Est): -0.9/-0.6/-0.1
• Services (%mom, May/Apr/Est): 0.1/-0.3(revised from -0.4)/0.1
• Construction (%mom, May/Apr/Est): -0.6/0.8(revised from 0.9)/0.2

Currencies

US$1.1688/eur vs 1.1733/eur previous. Yen 146.82/$ vs 146.33/$. SAr 17.833/$ vs 17.758/$. $1.355/gbp vs $1.361/gbp. 0.659/aud vs 0.656/aud. CNY 7.169/$ vs 7.176/$

Dollar Index 97.65 vs 97.39 previous

Precious metals:         

Gold US$3,340/oz vs US$3,325/oz previous

Gold ETFs 90.5moz vs 90.5moz previous

Platinum US$1,410/oz vs US$1,362/oz previous

Palladium US$1,217/oz vs US$1,115/oz previous

Silver US$38.2/oz vs US$36.6/oz previous

Rhodium US$5,600/oz vs US$5,700/oz previous

Base metals:

Copper US$9,662/t vs US$9,660/t previous

Aluminium US$2,613/t vs US$2,608/t previous

Nickel US$15,248/t vs US$15,155/t previous

Zinc US$2,773/t vs US$2,770/t previous

Lead US$2,027/t vs US$2,061/t previous

Tin US$33,585/t vs US$33,500/t previous

Energy:

Oil US$68.8/bbl vs US$70.3/bbl previous

Henry Hub Gas US$3.34/mmBtu vs US$3.24/mmBtu yesterday

• US Henry Hub natural gas prices edged higher as the EIA reported a larger-than-expected 53bcf w/w build to 3,006bcf, with storage inventories 5.8% below last year and 6.1% above the 5-year average.
• Mach Natural Resources announced two acquisitions for $1.3bn in cash and shares to diversify its current 81kboe/d producing portfolio in the Mid-Continent. The Company expects to close in 3Q25 the acquisition of 11kboe/d (98% liquids) in the Permian for $500m and 60kboe/d (94% gas) in the San Juan Basin for $787m.
• Obsidian Energy announced a decision to remove near-term production growth via a reduction in 2H25 capital expenditures (-33% y/y) in order to drive growth in per-share metrics via incremental share buybacks.

Natural Gas €35.2/MWh vs €35.2/MWh previous

Uranium Futures $73.8/lb vs $72.2/lb previous

Bulk:

Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (cfr Dalian) US$104.6/t vs US$104.6/

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$458.3/t vs US$458.0/t

HCC FOB Australia US$177.0/t vs US$177.0/t

Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$113.0/t vs US$112.0/t

Other:  

Cobalt LME 3m US$33,335/t vs US$33,335/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$63,263/t vs US$63,226/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$8,723/t vs US$8,704/t

China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$680/t vs US$670/t

Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$995/t vs US$995/t

China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$433/mtu vs US$433/mtu

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$410/t vs US$410/t

Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.0/lb vs US$5.0/lb

Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$24.0/kg vs US$24.0/kg

China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$289/t vs US$289/t

China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,094/t vs US$1,093/t

Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t

Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$362.5/t vs US$362.5/t

Germanium China 99.99% US$2,925.0/kg vs US$2,925.0/kg

China Gallium 99.99% US$395.0/kg vs US$395.0/kg

Company News

Almonty Industries (AII AU) A$8.1, Mkt Cap A$1.7bn – PFS for Sandong Tungsten Project, South Korea

• Tungsten producer Almonty reports an updated technical report their Shandong Project in South Korea.
• Reserves:

• • 8.58mt at 0.42% WO3 for 36.1kt WO3.

• Company envisages producing a 65% tungsten concentrate.
• Plant to use crushing, grinding and flotation with nominal feed rate of 1,920tpd and recoveries of 85%.
• 14 year LOM with annual mill capacity of 645ktpa at 0.42% feed grade, recovering 231,200 MTUpa.
• OPEX:

• • Mining: $25/t ore
  • Processing: $15.6/t ore
  • G&A: $5/t

• CAPEX of $127m.
• NPV5 of US$271m post-tax with IRR of 49.55 at $450/t APT price.
• Almonty currently mines tungsten from the Panasqueira Mine in Portugal, and is currently building Shandong.
• Almonty also holds the Los Santos mine in western Spain and the Valtreixal Project in northwestern Spain.

Aston Bay Holdings (BAY CN) C$0.065, Mkt cap C$15m – First diamond drill hole of 2025 intersects visible copper mineralisation at depth

Yesterday, the Canadian explorer, Aston Bay, reported that the first diamond drill-hole of its 2025 campaign, ST25-02, at the Storm project on Somerset Island, Nunavut, has intersected “two broad zones of intermittent visual sulfide mineralization between 284m-319m, and 368m-380m downhole for a total of 47m of visual sulfide mineralization”.

The drillhole tested “the Allen Bay horizon … [described as] … the primary host of copper sulfide mineralization within the Storm area … within the Central Graben, which is faulted downwards and located at approximately 280m depth”.

The hole was drilled to a depth of 440m southwest of the Cyclone deposit and the mineralisation “and stratigraphic location are visually very similar to the mineralization observed at the distal edges of the Cyclone Deposit … [with] … veinlets and matrix breccias … hosted within a thick sequence of fractured dolomudstones of the Allen Bay Formation”.

Assay results are expected to be available “in the next 4-6 weeks” and the company confirms that further diamond drilling “will follow up on the Cyclone Deeps target, Cirrus Deeps target, MMT anomalies, and other high-priority exploration targets”.

In addition to the diamond drilling, the announcement confirms that reverse- circulation “RC drilling continues with a pipeline of high-priority geophysical, exploration, and resource expansion targets. Samples for 11 of the initial RC drill holes have been sent to the laboratory for assay and are … [also] … expected in the next 4-6 weeks”.

Aston Bay also describes the completion of the initial phase of a mobile magnetotelluric (MMT) geophysical survey which has “identified six strong and laterally extensive conductive features … interpreted <350m depth … and several broad anomalous features … interpreted >350m depth”.

Among the shallower (<350m depth) anomalies, one “is spatially related to known high-grade copper sulfides at the Cyclone Deposit, confirming the geophysical technique’s ability to image this style of mineralization”.

The deeper MMT anomalies show “large conductive features that cross-cut the main E-W trend of the graben fault network … [which may] … represent a change of geology at depth … [and are] … key exploration targets”.

Aston Bay and its partner, American West Minerals, have secured the support of the Provincial Government of Nunavut “and will receive CAD$250,000 in funding to support the 2025 drilling at Storm”.

Conclusion: Aston Bay and it partner, American West Metals (20:80), have intersected visual copper mineralisation over an aggregate width of 47m in the first diamond drill hole of the 2025 campaign – assay results are awaited.  Drilling is continuing.

BeMetals* (BMET CN) – C$0.035, Mkt cap C$9.4m – Ontario gold exploration project

• Yesterday, BeMetals reported that it had reached a non-binding agreement to acquire a gold exploration project in Ontario.
• The agreement, with TSXV listed Prospector Metals, is an opportunity to acquire 100% ownership of the 232km² Savant project “located near several past producers as well as current operating mines, including the Red Lake and Musselwhite mines” in NW Ontario.
• Subject to a definitive agreement, BeMetals will spend at least C$0.5mpa on exploration to establish an NI-43-101 compliant resource with the earned ownership of the project dependant on the scale of the resource.

• • If the resource is <0.5moz of gold, “the Property is retained by Prospector”;
  • A resource of between 0.5m-1m oz classed as ‘Inferred’ establishes a “50/50 joint venture … with mutual rights of first refusal”; and
  • A resource of more than 1moz, including at least 50% classed as ‘Indicated’, earns BeMetals 100% of the project.

• “A cash payment of US$5 per ounce of Mineral Resources, as reported in the Technical Report, will be made to Prospector” which, if BeMetals earns a 100% interest, will also retain a 0.5% Net Smelter Return royalty.

Historical Savant Project Highlights:

Source: Orla Mining Website: https://orlamining.com/asset/musselwhite/

• John Wilton, President of BeMetals, described the Savant gold project as “a compelling early-stage opportunity in a proven gold belt … [and said that BeMetals is attracted by the project’s] … district scale appeal with its numerous areas of compelling structural settings along with geochemically favourable, iron formations which are known to concentrate gold mineralizing fluids in this region”.
• Robert Carpenter, President, CEO & Co-Chairman of Prospector Metals, said that BeMetals “brings technical expertise and the corporate know-how that is needed for a discovery-stage project”.
• He explained that the project “represents a classic iron formation hosted gold district that displays high-grade gold within sheared and folded host rocks … [and that] … Previous work largely focused on easy to access shoreline prospects and a comprehensive district-scale view has not been completed”.

*An SP Angel analyst holds shares in BE Metals

MP Materials (MP US) US$45, US$7.4bn – Major partnership with the US DoD to expand US magnet manufacturing capacity

• The Company released a major public-private partnership with the US Department of Defense.
• The partnership includes:
• NdPr Price Floor Commitment

• • DoD will guarantee minimum $110/kg price for all MP production (concentrate, oxide, metal) paying the difference between the market price quarterly for 10y from 4Q25;
  • Floor price refers to material produced, sold and stockpiled.

• “10X” Magnet Manufacturing Expansion

• • MP to increase its Independence magnet manufacturing capacity from current 1ktpa (planned expansion up to 3ktpa) to 10ktpa
  • 100% DoD offtake commitment for defense use and commercial applications
  • A minimum $140m EBITDA is guaranteed on sales based on a cost-plus pricing (2.0% annual inflation adjustment)
  • DoD to share an upside above the $140m EBITDA level receiving first $30m over $140m and running 50/50 split with MP beyond $170m.
  • 10y agreement to start on commissioning of 10X Facility (exp 4Q28).

• DoD Investment & Strategic Capital

• • $400m convertible preferred equity ($30 conversion price);
  • 10y warrant ($30 exercise price) that potentially increases DoD total equity stake once converted and exercised to 15% of pre money shares outstanding;
  • $150m loan to fund HREE expansion for 12y and a fixed rate (T+100bp).

• Additionally, the Company secured a commitment letter from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs for a $1.0bn funding facility for the 10X project.
• The stock jumped 50% yesterday.

Conclusion: The agreement marks a major endorsement by the US government emphasising strategic nature of the business and designed to support development of fully integrated local supply chain for rare earth products. The minimum NdPr price set at nearly double the current $60/kg level ensures upstream and midstream operations generate profit as the Company expands magnet manufacturing facilities from currently planned 3ktpa (incl expansion) to 10ktpa. Magnet manufacturing facility is also subject to a minimum cost-plus agreement guaranteeing $140m in EBITDA pa at least shielding operations from potentially uneconomic price levels in the market that is largely controlled by Chinese producers. The agreement highlights the urge of the government to minimise supply risks in critical minerals and REE, key to such industries as defense and robotics, in particular.

The agreement is a positive read across to RE recycling business currently being developed by Mkango Resources* (MKA LN, 30p, Mkt Cap £99m) in the UK, the EU and the US designed to produce permanent magnets using patented HPMS technology from spent equipment. The US facility is planned to be also located in Forth Worth, Texas. HyProMag USA (~40% Mkango) is developing a ~$130m facility to produce ~1.6ktpa NdFeB magnet products within five years of commissioning in 2027.

*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Mkango Resources

Ora Banda (OBM AU) A$0.66, Mkt Cap A$1.23bn – 2026 cost guidance disappoints

• Australian gold producer Ora Banda releases FY25 production performance.
• 92.4koz produced over FY25, with 21.9koz added in the June quarter.
• Production had been guided for 95koz Au.
• June quarter hit by slower-than-expected ramp up of the mill and mining delays at Riverina.
• Cash increased A$3.5m over the quarter to A$84.2m.
• 2026 guidance:

• • 140-155koz
  • AISC of A$2,800-2,900/oz
  • A$73m exploration expenditure
  • A$86m CAPEX

• 2025 AISC guidance was A$2,300-A$2,600/oz, above the previous guidance of A$2,500/oz.

Taseko Mines (TKO LN) 266p, Mkt Cap £1.15m – Yellowhead Copper technical report

• Taseko reports a technical report for its Yellowhead Copper Project in British Columbia.
• The update reflects updated CAPEX and OPEX estimates and technical and engineering work from the Jan 2020 report.
• Yellowhead:

• • 25 year LOM producing c.80ktpa Cu
  • Concentrator capacity of 90ktpd, expected recoveries of 90%.
  • Open pit operation with strip ratio of 1.4.
  • Reserves of 817mt at 0.28% Cu and 0.03g/t Au.
  • Development CAPEX of C$2bn
  • C1 costs at US$1.9/lb over LOM.
  • NPV8 at US$4.25/lb of C$2bn, IRR of 21%.
  • Numbers guided to PFS level of engineering and contingency

• Permitting:

• • Project has now begun Provincial and Federal environmental assessment process
  • Approval subject to the Simpcw First Nation’s assessment, currently in initial stage.
• Taseko expects the project will be eligible for CAPEX reimbursement from the Canadian Clean Technology Manufacturing Investment Tax Credit.

URU Metals* (URU LN) 5.0p, Mkt cap £3.1m – URU confirms higher-grade nickel sulphides across multiple zones at Zeb nickel polymetallic project in South Africa

• URU Metals has confirmed the presence of higher-grade nickel sulphides across multiple zones at Zeb nickel project in South Africa.
• Assay results and geological interpretation of two vertical drill holes are reported to validate the team’s geological model, and confirm the presence of thicker, higher-grade Ni-Cu-PGE horizons.
• This mineralisation occurs below the historic open-pit resource and with the expert team seeing the mineralisation as open both along strike and at depth.
• Drilling into Zone 1 and Zone 2 show:

• • “Two drillholes plus two deflections completed intersected mineralised material in both Zone 1 and Zone 2.
  • Zone 2 Ni-Cu-PGE mineralisation confirmed to be present in a previously untested area beneath Zone 1, confirming the geological model.
  • Thicker, higher-grade intervals beneath the historical resource
  • Zone 2: up to 2.27 m @ 0.27 % Ni, 0.17 % Cu, 2.27 g/t 3PGE+Au and 4.06 m @ 0.23 % Ni, 0.14 % Cu, 1.36 g/t 3PGE+Au
  • Zone 3: up to 0.70 m @ 0.65 % Ni, 0.40 % Cu within a broader 2.73 m @ 0.39 % Ni
  • Multiple semi-massive sulphide hits confirm the geological model and strengthen the analogy with world-class feeder conduit systems.
  • Mineralisation remains open along strike and at depth, highlighting meaningful scale-up potential for both tonnage and grade.

• The results confirm the Zeb mineral system is divided into four stacked horizons:

• • Zone 1 forms the near-surface, bulk-tonnage nickel-bearing unit of the Lower Uitloop body that underpins the historical Ni resource.
  • Zone 2, immediately beneath and adjacent to Zone 1, contains Ni-Cu-PGE mineralisation similar to that found at Ivanhoe Mines’s Platreef Mine and the Mogalakwena Mining Complex.
  • Zone 3 is a feeder-style ultramafic chonolith, the geometry of which was recently confirmed in an airborne gravity and magnetic survey.
  • Zone 4 broadly encompasses areas of gold mineralisation intersected in drillholes.”

• Zone 2

• • 2.27 m @ 0.27 % Ni, 0.17 % Cu, 2.27 g/t 3PGE+Au

• • • *inc. 0.77 m @ 0.31 % Ni, 0.18 % Cu, 2.19 g/t 3PGE+Au from 346.23 – 348.50m in hole Z031D1

• • 4.06 m @ 0.23 % Ni, 0.14 % Cu, 1.36 g/t 3PGE+Au from 342.44 – 346.50m in hole Z031D0

• • • *inc. 1.56 m @ 0.30 % Ni, 0.18 % Cu, 1.72 g/t 3PGE+Au.

• Zone 3

• • 1.03 m @ 0.60 % Ni, 0.14 % Cu, 0.57 g/t 3PGE+Au from 330.97 – 332.00m in hole Z031D0
  • 0.70 m @ 0.65 % Ni, 0.40 % Cu, 0.36 g/t 3PGE+Au within 2.73 m @ 0.39 % Ni from 338.53-341.26m in hole Z031D0

Conclusion:  Drilling shows substantial polymetallic mineralisation within the Zeb nickel project with further drilling expected to hit significantly higher-grade Ni-Cu-PGE mineralisation down-dip.

The mineralisation appears comparable with the geology of neighbouring mines where the economics of operation are well proven.

Zone 3 shows potential for the intrusion of mineralised igneous rock which may link the Uitloop I and II bodies and could provide a major mass of mineralised material for potential bulk mining.

It’s the sort of thing that gets geologists quite excited!

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to URU Metals

IGTV: Trading Experiences with Angeline Ong: Talk starts 2:16 into the video: 

LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025

No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024

Analysts

John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474

Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476

Sales

Richard Parlons –Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne –Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees –Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471

George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486

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+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

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