What a year it’s been!
I’ll be covering the macro in my picks for 2026 on 1 January, but safe to say, this year’s been one to remember.
And I intend to take the rest of the month off.
My work with blue chip, small cap and private clients has been extremely enjoyable this year – and profitable – but there comes a time when you should kick back with a glass of Lagavulin and drift off to sleep in your favourite armchair, while children play in the background afront the roaring fireplace.
That time of year is now.
My sincere hope is that the thousands of readers here – whether a student trading with beer money, or one of the many funds now on the email list – took something valuable from my research.
Ideally profits.
But entertainment, education or perspective all count too.
Let’s just start with the total annual return.
I never count the last two weeks of the trading year – mostly because volume dies, so market makers play games with the share prices to attract liquidity. It’s basically not a true reflection of the market’s perspective as most participants are with their families.
Companies will put out their final material RNSs on Monday – and regardless of the rules (which are more like guidelines anyway), nothing important is then likely to be released until the New Year.
This lack of volume and news does make for a febrile trading environment, however – particularly for stocks also listed abroad on exchanges in countries where Christmas is not a big deal.
But I also want to write this piece now so that I can completely switch off until Monday 5 January, when things actually start up again.
Data was sourced from the Yahoo Finance site (rounded to the nearest whole percentage) and for clarity based on the London-listed ticker, where the stock is also listed elsewhere.
My mean year-to-date return was…
Drum roll….
78.5%.
These stocks were picked at the start of 2025, I have reviewed them every month – and the returns (in my humble opinion) speak for themselves.
You can read the full article here.
- S&P 500 fall? I’ll count that one as a win, as I also noted earlier in that article that ‘the index may subsequently recover within the year.’ We didn’t quite hit that 4,735 but the April tariffs did hit the index hard. Okay, maybe I wasn’t exactly right, but close enough.I will note I continue to retain cash for when the real crash happens. Japan…
- A portfolio split between SVML, AMRQ & GGP would deliver a positive return in 2025? Up 90% ytd, with the lifting done by GGP.Am I sad I didn’t go all in on Greatland?No.
I had equal conviction in the three, all have delivered better than could be expected in terms of corporate progress, and the only difference between them is that Greatland’s share price has risen and the other two haven’t re-rated.
Yet.
If I were to concentrate on just one core portfolio stock, I may have not picked GGP, and then seen my expectations dashed.
By happy coincidence, GGP has been the largest position of the three, purely because I invested heavily at 5p in old money last year.
The others simply didn’t have that level of valuation mismatch a year ago.
This was my core promise:
I am ready to be judged. - Rome and Arc delivering a positive return? I did issue ‘the caveat that all exploration stocks should only form a small part of any risk balanced portfolio. If you’re hoping for a 20x return, you need to accept there is almost always a corresponding level of risk.’Arc has been plagued with a court case that likely contributed to their FTSE 100 partner walking away. Rome delivered a strong maiden MRE amid rocketing tin prices, but suffered from in-country tensions through the year.Sorry. You can’t win ‘em all.
I think Rome has every chance of recovering to new highs – Arc hinges on resolving the court cases in the company’s favour. This is Africa – we will know soon enough.
- Alien, Asiamet and Bezant did all sign deals. Blencowe hasn’t got there yet, but the indications are that it will next year (and the share price performance has been decent).
- Power Metal and Guardian – yep, as a pair up significantly.
- Jubilee and African Pioneer – wrong again, though the fundamental value in both will see me right, eventually.
- Helix – correct.
- Emmerson – star performer? Not quite – but 244% for a moonshot is good going.
So – six predictions right, two wrong. I can live with that, especially given that my core prediction came back accurate.
Interestingly, three of the four companies where I got it wrong have significant operations in Zambia. I have always viewed this jurisdiction as decent by African standards, but the Arc situation has left an extremely bitter taste in my mouth.
Everything was in place and part of the reason why $90 million of drilling isn’t going into the ground is a government unprepared to back licence holders.
Jubilee will need to diversify – AFP already has Ongombo.
Let’s now consider the progress each company of the 15 has made in 2025:
The Golden Trio
Greatland has benefitted from record gold prices (and collapsing oil), giving it margins you could only have dreamed of a year or so ago.
If it was a ‘fucking steal’ in 2024, then something operating on $4,400 gold and sub $60 Brent is something else.
We now know that Telfer has enough ore, and possibly years and years more of ore feed – more than ample to cover the gap until Havieron comes online.
We know from the Havieron DFS that the operation will be handsomely profitable, and we know that if Shaun wanted to, then barring an existential crisis, the company could fund its development from cash reserves.
Consolidation of the entire Paterson Province is in the company’s grasp.
There were a few wobbles with the Aussies shorting the stock to get in cheaper – a tactic I should have seen coming – but I remained convinced that the fall earlier this year was manufactured.
And it was.
Having reached my initial target of £4 a share, then my stretch target of £5 a share – I remain invested for now as it’s clear to me that funds are buying in at pace.
The recent rise isn’t retail.
I was on a podcast reviewing the year (yet to be released) a few days ago and was asked whether I would be selling a slice or retaining my shares for the foreseeable.
Honestly? I’m not sure. I stuttered over the answer, which is unlike me as I generally have defined exits and am happy to share them.
The problem is that retaining my position in full breaks some rules, while selling breaks others.
I like to have no more than 10% of my portfolio in any one stock. My initial GGP position was already far more than 10%, and now it’s 5x’d. I have written probably more than 50 articles on why letting one company dominate your portfolio is a bad idea, and yet at present I’m actively letting this happen.
However, I also know to trust my own research. Not just the surface investment case that is easily understood by non-specialist investors and gets published here, but the real technical detail – pages and pages of it – I know this has further to run, based on its own fundamentals but also compared to all of its ASX-listed peers.
My small cap portfolio is based on high risk, high reward asymmetric profiled returns; some stocks will fall and others will be multi-baggers. Selling my winners while they’re running doesn’t work in my model.
If I trim GGP now just to satisfy an arbitrary position size rule, I’m essentially capping the very asymmetry I’m trying to capture.
The portfolio concentration rule exists for good reason – it protects against catastrophic loss from a single position. But it was designed for a different context: either for conservative portfolios where preservation matters more than growth, or for situations where you don’t have genuine informational edge.
I have that informational edge; at least I think I do.
But am I drinking my own Kool-Aid?
Here’s what I keep coming back to: I have deep conviction that GGP has further to go, based on work most investors haven’t done. The funds are validating that thesis in real-time with their buying.
The peer comparison still shows significant upside. The revaluation is still incomplete, and the tungsten also looks ready to spring into life.
So perhaps the answer isn’t to rigidly apply AIM portfolio rules.
They’re more like guidelines anyway.
On the other hand, with an average of 5p in old money, £5 is a 5x return in a little over a year, and for me, that’s already far more than enough. It’s enough that all the stress and hard work, analysis and exhaustion pays off, and then I can put those profits into a GIA spread across low-risk assets and maybe work a bit less.
For example, I knew that the stock would recover from the summer hatchet job. But the difference between a demo account and real money is very real. It’s one thing to have confidence, and another watching my family’s wealth sink in paper terms — money I’ve spent countless hours working for.
Constantly checking the price on the ASX overnight, waking up in a mild sweat, ignoring everything to watch a line on my phone…
Intellectually, I was certain I was right, and intellectually, every facet of fundamental analysis indicates that it has room to run much higher. Emotionally, I already have a sum of paper money that will change my own, my wife’s and my children’s lives.
And that’s what no amount of modelling prepares you for. You can be almost certain that you’re right and still feel the weight of it.
Maybe when a position is so large it genuinely affects your emotional state, that’s exactly when the position size rules are supposed to kick in – not because I’m wrong about the company, but because I’m human.
But if I sell now, I’m betting against my own conviction.
I don’t have the answer yet.
Ask me again at £6.
Amaroq has basically executed everything as expected – and more.
The stock soared early in the year on the back of Trump’s lengthy comments on Greenlandic rare earths – fell in the summer as the raise and Nalunaq optimisation dented short-term expectations, and is now almost breakeven year-to-date.
With initial Nanoq assays exceptional and profits to start rolling in next year (backed by record gold and collapsing oil), I’m pretty confident I’m not wrong here.
Just early.
Well, sort of early. I’ve been in it a while, and am up handsomely over the years.
Again, this is the only way to play Greenland – and when government funding comes in as gold revenue soars, it’ll re-rate.
I’ve covered Amaroq in depth several times over the past couple of months, and very recently interviewed Eddie. I encourage you to check the archives rather than repeat it all here.
Just sit back and enjoy the fireworks.
Sovereign shot up earlier in the year, raised at a high, then fell.
And basically, it’s struggled to regain that high.
There’s a few reasons why – chiefly though, a widespread belief that no offer for Kasiya is going to come in until the DFS is released.
This is not the case, it could come at any time. Kasiya is the world’s largest rutile and second-largest graphite deposit, with the titanium validated by Toho itself.
However, the MRE upgrade and DFS which were both due this quarter have been delayed to Q1.
This set off jitters, including new government worries and fears that Rio Tinto would sell their stake rather than place a bid.
However, the World Bank RNS of a few days ago, which explained the delay was due to the DFS needing to meet the standards of SVML’s new partner, the International Finance Corporation, has de-risked this to the extreme.
The IFC and Sovereign will now collaborate on the Kasiya Project, including in government meetings, and most importantly, the:
‘development of an implementation plan to support the Project’s alignment with IFC Performance Standards required for a potential IFC funding proposal’
Given the DFS is now a BFS, and it’s coming next quarter, the trajectory is obvious.
The IFC has secured financing rights to fund Kasiya: the right to act as lender, mandated co-lead arranger, and/or investor in securities for project financing.
The IFC is the largest global development institution and has deployed $71.7 billion in financing in 2025.
The World Bank is helping to finance both the Nacala corridor (which runs through Kasiya), and the Mpatamanga Hydropower Project, which is Malawi’s largest energy infrastructure project.
There is literally no better news, and no better partner.
Just sit tight.
The Dealmakers
Guardian got initial US government funding, and now has the two most developed, and arguably largest, tungsten projects in the US.
Do not be fooled by the large number of newcomers. They have not conducted the required metallurgical work to prove economic viability.
Guardian’s assets are adjacent to the planned US tungsten stockpile. This is not a coincidence.
The US wants domestic production. The quickest way to make that happen is GMET. When the US listing comes, there’ll be a dozen funds wanting to buy in – and not that many new shares will be created.
I’m sticking with GMET until endgame, which I expect will be next year – when bigger players take this out.
Bezant got the mining licence and funding for Hope & Gorob secured, as hoped for.
You can’t ask for more than this. It was on last year’s Christmas list, and Santa Colin has delivered. He clearly plans to be producing copper by at least this time next year; at current copper-gold pricing, the profits here could be exceptional.
Yes, there is executional risk going forward. There’s no point pretending there aren’t.
But this year has delivered – and next year could be better.
Asiamet has sold BKM, and I would not be surprised to see Beutong sold off in the not too distant future. This was and remains a simple takeout play – I’m expecting 3p per share when all’s said and done.
Again, execution risk remains on getting sales over the line. But I’m betting it all goes through.
Don’t sell your shares once the special dividend hits your account – the shell will be worth something – and you never know what you might end up with.
Blencowe released a strong MRE upgrade and DFS; again as expected. The stock shot up, as desired, and has since come back down a bit.
Mike’s spent some time in the US, so we shall see whether financing or an asset sale comes next.
Again, this simply went according to plan (minus the DFC funding delay, but that wasn’t avoidable).
Alien Metals was easily one of the more frustrating of these companies; two deals for the silver and PGMs respectively have been incestuously signed – initial silver assays were genuinely bonanza and the stock took off as predicted.
Then a management change, a placing at the lows, and sentiment sunk. We’re still ending the year up – but what was one of the big winners of the year has become a middle of the range.
Given it’s cashed up and exploration at 2/3 assets will now be non-dilutive, it’s again great value.
But there were strategic missteps here that didn’t need to have happened.
It’s a great shame because the potential was, and remains.
Power Metal, on the other hand, executed flawlessly – but essentially has again not moved this year. I’ve held a significant number of shares for a number of years now.
I haven’t lost any money, but I haven’t made any either.
It’s kind of hard to suffer that opportunity loss – but equally, you can’t complain about the corporate progress. At times, POW has traded below its cash balance, and the assets in the company + the cash still yields an exceptional opportunity on the fundamentals.
I will not sell this until it re-rates to fair value. If I could make one comparison between POW and UFO – other than BBG – it’s that both shares struggle when management declines to engage in PR.
This doesn’t have to be much – or with me – but a 30 minute interview/interaction once a month is needed.
The Explorers
Arc Minerals lost its FSTE 100 partner Anglo American, as noted above, partly due to licence interference caused by court cases.
Again, I can’t say much here. There is cash in the company, and the cases will be resolved – one way or another – very soon.
Then we can reassess.
I remain of the view that as long as the legals are sorted and we retain the licences, we have some of the best in Africa.
Rome Resources had to deal with Rwandan-backed M23 rebels coming relatively close to the exploration site. However, this seems to have simmered down – and the MRE was tin light but very strong.
Now cashed up to explore for the deeper, higher grade tin, we could be in for a decent rise next year.
I don’t think anything went wrong in particular – it’s just the ups and downs of an explorer.
With IRH taking a majority stake in Bisie next door, I still expect to see a partnership come through – these guys take time, but have deep, deep pockets. And Bisie’s LOM is really not that long.
On a personal note, please raise a glass to Mark. He was by all accounts, a gentleman and a scholar, and shall be missed.
JLP & AFP
Jubilee decided to get out of South Africa with $90 million. Assuming this all goes through, this will be a company with $90 million in cash and a perhaps $120 million market cap.
The Zambian assets (in particular, Sable and Roan) are worth far, far more than $30 million, even with the increased jurisdictional risk.
You can do a lot with $90 million, and we shall see what next year.
African Pioneer also received a mining licence – this time for Ongombo. While light on cash, the stock has fallen to a market cap of just £2 million, which is tiny compared to its assets.
I did hope for a deal on Ongombo this year. One did come for Bezant, so again, I’m hoping I’m simply early again, and not wrong.
The Helium Pick
Helix has risen on continued success at Rudyard, including a potential commercial geological hydrogen discovery.
We were expecting production by mid-September – this hasn’t happened, and the latest date expected was December.
In practical terms, the latest the RNS can come is Monday, or it’s going to be January (material news in the Christmas period is where news goes to die).
I’d bet Bo will want to end the year with a bang, so we’ll see.
Again, the helium cartel will not allow a sizeable independent producer to exist, so once production is declared and the cash comes in, don’t expect this listing to last very long.
The Moonshot
Emmerson has made decent progress on the legal case, and its tribunal set-up is as good as can be hoped for.
This is a moonshot; I am happy to sit back and hope for the 10x.
The legal team is capable, the legal case is strong.
Curveballs happen though; again, we shall see.
Closing comments
I’ll cover the macro in my picks for 2026 on 1 January, but think some reflection on what worked this year, what didn’t and what lessons there may be to learn, may help.
Here goes.
Throughout 2025, I’ve shared various ideas, but I’ve consistently reviewed these core holdings every month (except EPP, added in late March and currently near breakeven — hence its absence from the chart).
I make a point of being as transparent about losses as I am about wins. It’s easy to trumpet success; it’s harder to eat humble pie.
I’m happy to chase themes like crypto treasuries or capitalise on obvious momentum plays, sharing what I can when time allows. But sustainable success comes from selecting stocks, researching deeply, and truly understanding them.
There are dozens of companies I’d love to dig into, but time is finite.
Trading on FOMO works for traders.
Investing requires conviction.
If you look again at the winners and losers, a few themes clearly stand out.
First, the two largest gainers (GGP & GMET) both enjoy CEOs with extremely strong shareholder support. The assets need to be high quality, but it’s management that make or break it in the small cap market.
I’d venture that when it comes to trust, Shaun Day and Oliver Friesen are at the top of the pack.
If you trust management? You hold stock through the dips, which is what makes dips dips, and not crashes.
Despite the difference in size between these two stocks, shareholders have held tightly onto their shares throughout 2025 in a way that likely infuriated the shorters and also delivered high returns for the holders.
Low effective free float = conditions for share price appreciation.
The other point is that both companies were and remain fully funded for operations. GGP has not needed to raise (thanks gold!) and GMET has done so only in a way that is fair to the retail shareholders that are now less important but whose loyalty built the foundation of the rise.
Loyalty cuts both ways.
I was pretty explicit in my article at the start of the year that:
And looking at what won and what didn’t, this seems to have held true.
For reference, the three worst performers YTD, regardless of reason, were the three pure-play explorers.
Companies enjoying middle of the road returns were the dealmakers – those businesses sitting on valuable assets who simply need to monetise them in a metals bull run.
Going forward, more of my capital will be aimed at companies like this – perhaps close to a DFS, with clear interest in a buyout/farmout or whatever.
Geographically, winners were spread across the US, Africa, Indonesia and Australia. You can win in many jurisdictions – what matters is asset and management quality.
Finally, the largest wins came from stocks I’ve held for years, that simply delivered this year.
I didn’t trade my long term conviction stocks over the course of time.
I picked, and I held.
I use YTD returns and an assumption that my positions are equal, as this is most fair (otherwise you can cherrypick), but I’ve held GMET since mid-2023, GGP since very shortly after the raise, BZT from May 2024, HEX since the IPO…
And I fully expect most if not all of the ‘losers’ on this list to be in the winner segment next year, and to have won both year-to-date in 2026 and over the course of 2025 and 2026 cumulatively – in other words, AMRQ, POW, JLP, SVML, RMR, AFP and ARCM by this time NEXT year (20 December 2026) will be up as a portfolio compared to 1 January 2025.
It’s worth noting that these ‘losers’ are down 26% on average; the winners are up 170%.
Again, I specialise in asymmetric bets: the losers as a group won’t lose everything – the winners will multibag. You need to manage risk by ensuring the chances of total loss are low, while the chances of large gains are high.
I believed then and believe now that SVML and AMRQ are long-term winners. These are positions I’ve held for years. Despite their underwhelming 2025 performance, I’m still up significantly on both over the longer term and consider them exceptionally high-quality companies.
And it’s worth noting: both SVML and AMRQ were at points significantly up this year – before falling back. Winners like HEX and BRES were at points significantly down, but rebounded to finish strongly.
So possibly, the most important takeaway is the how critical risk management and diversification is.
I’m not all in on one stock.
I hold a portfolio. Each year, some pay off big and for others, it’s not their year – YET.
You can afford a couple of downers with the right portfolio balance.
78.5% is, I hope you’ll agree, a strong return, and I hope to match it in 2026.
Though that might be a challenge.
Happy Christmas!
