The final working week of June will be relatively quiet for UK macroeconomic data following the Bank of England’s decision. However, Friday’s gross domestic product (GDP) update could be leveraged by political parties ahead of the general election the following week.
In the US, GDP data is scheduled for release on Thursday, followed by the core PCE price index on Friday, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.
The headline and core PCE data have significantly decreased from their peaks in 2022, now hovering around 2.7-2.8%, but still above the Fed’s 2% target.
At the recent Fed meeting, Chair Jerome Powell noted ‘modest further progress’ in inflation but emphasized that ‘greater confidence’ is needed before considering policy loosening.
Economists predict US headline PCE to be 2.6% year-over-year, down from the previous 2.7%. Core numbers are forecasted at 2.6%, compared to the prior 2.8%.
According to ING forex strategist Francesco Pesole, there are five significant dates in the markets over the next three weeks that could impact the dollar.
On Sunday, June 30, the first round of the French parliamentary election takes place. The extent of Marine Le Pen’s far-right party’s progress will be clear only after the July 7 round of constituency run-offs.
Another key political event this week is the Iranian presidential election on Friday. Reports suggest a likely run-off on July 5, with three major contenders: one reformist and two conservatives.
Key Economic Data in the Coming Week
Monday
- UK Events:
- CBI Industrial Trends Orders
- US Events:
- Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
- 3-Month Bill Auction
- 6-Month Bill Auction
- EU Events:
- Consumer Inflation Expectations
Tuesday
- UK Events:
- 10-Year Index-Linked Treasury Gilt Auction
- US Events:
- Chicago Fed National Activity Index
- S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
- CB Consumer Confidence
- API Crude Oil Stock Change
- Fed Speakers (Cook, Bowman)
- EU Events:
- None
Wednesday
- UK Events:
- 15-Year Treasury Gilt Auction
- CBI Distributive Trades
- US Events:
- MBA Mortgage Applications
- New Home Sales
- EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
- Bank Stress Tests
- EU Events:
- None
Thursday
- UK Events:
- Car Production
- US Events:
- Durable Goods Orders
- GDP Quarterly Growth
- Initial Jobless Claims
- Pending Home Sales
- Fed Speaker (Barkin)
- EU Events:
- Loans to Companies
- Loans to Households
- M3 Money Supply
- Economic Sentiment
- Consumer Confidence
- Consumer Inflation Expectations
- Industrial Sentiment
- Selling Price Expectations
- Services Sentiment
Friday
- UK Events:
- Current Account
- GDP Quarterly Growth
- Business Investment
- US Events:
- Core PCE Price Index
- Personal Income and Spending
- Chicago PMI
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment
- Baker Hughes Rig Counts
- EU Events:
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- None
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