{"id":141368,"title":"Middle East Oil Exports Return Above Pre-War Levels Despite Hormuz Attacks","publisher":"Share Talk","author":"sharetalk","published":"2026-10-05T14:51:40+00:00","modified":"2026-10-05T14:51:40+00:00","canonical_url":"https://www.share-talk.com/middle-east-oil-exports-return-above-pre-war-levels-despite-hormuz-attacks/","markdown_url":"https://www.share-talk.com/middle-east-oil-exports-return-above-pre-war-levels-despite-hormuz-attacks.md","json_url":"https://www.share-talk.com/middle-east-oil-exports-return-above-pre-war-levels-despite-hormuz-attacks.json","category":"Blogs","categories":["Blogs","Energy"],"tags":["Abqaiq oil field","Baghdad","Fujairah","Gulf states","Houthis","Iraqi territory","liquefied natural gas","LNG","Middle East crude","pipeline","Red Sea","Saudi Arabia","Saudi Aramco","Storage tankers","Strait of Hormuz","Yanbu"],"featured_image":"https://i0.wp.com/www.share-talk.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Strait-of-Hormuz-4-march-second-image-scaled.webp?fit=1920%2C1281&ssl=1","format":"news","language":"en-GB","content":"**Middle East crude oil exports returned to and briefly exceeded pre-war levels during September**, despite continued attacks on commercial vessels and disruption around the **Strait of Hormuz**.\n\nProvisional Kpler data showed the region’s **seven-day moving average for crude exports reached 18.3 million barrels per day on 30 September**.\n\nThat compares with an average of approximately **18 million barrels per day during the 12 months before the war involving the US, Israel and Iran began in February**.\n\nExports were at or above pre-war levels on **14 days during September**, including cargoes moving through Hormuz, the Red Sea and alternative Gulf export routes.\n\nVortexa data also pointed to a recovery, with the **14-day moving average for Middle East crude and condensate exports reaching 18.6 million barrels per day**, above the 10-year seasonal average and broadly back at pre-conflict levels.\n\nThe rebound has been driven largely by **Saudi Arabia increasing exports through both the Gulf and Red Sea**, while Iraqi operators have also increased shipments through Hormuz after securing permission for Iraqi tankers to transit the strait.\n\nThe improvement potentially reduces the scale of the global crude shortage and provides additional supply for major Asian refiners.\n\nHowever, the recovery does **not mean that Middle East oil flows have returned to normal**.\n\nShips operating through Hormuz continue to face what shipping intelligence group Marisks described as a **“heightened and increasingly unpredictable kinetic threat”**, with several tankers struck by unknown projectiles in recent days.\n\nThe increase in exports is also creating additional logistical pressure.\n\nMore very large crude carriers are being used to shuttle oil through Hormuz before cargoes are transferred or redirected, while ship-to-ship transfer capacity in the Gulf of Oman is becoming constrained.\n\nThose changes have contributed to exceptionally high freight and insurance costs.\n\nReuters analysis noted that tanker rates on some Middle East-to-Asia routes have risen dramatically, meaning the **cost of transporting crude has become a much larger component of delivered oil prices even as physical export volumes recover**.\n\nThat helps explain why Brent crude has remained above **$100 a barrel despite the improvement in headline supply volumes**.\n\nFor investors, the distinction is increasingly important: the global oil market may be moving away from a pure **physical supply shortage towards a logistics, shipping and refining-capacity problem**.\n\nHigher exports should reduce some upward pressure on crude prices, but continued tanker attacks, elevated insurance costs and constrained refining capacity mean the benefit may not flow through fully to consumers.\n\nThe next key test is whether Middle East producers can **sustain export volumes around current levels without a further escalation in attacks or another disruption to the region’s export infrastructure**."}