A May interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is “clearly off the table,” according to JPMorgan, despite renewed pressure from Donald Trump for looser monetary policy.
Bruce Kasman, the bank’s chief global economist, said stronger-than-expected jobs data released on Friday make a rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting unlikely and dims the prospects for a cut in June.
“It is hard for me to think about the Fed coming in with today’s payroll report and saying, ‘Hey, this is the right time to be easing.’ I think May is clearly off the table,” Kasman said.
Speaking on Truth Social, Trump repeated his call for lower rates, insisting: “No inflation, the Fed should lower its rate!”
The U.S. economy added 177,000 jobs in April—down slightly from March’s 185,000 but comfortably above the forecast of 138,000 and the 12-month average of 152,000—highlighting resilience in the labour market.
Despite the positive jobs report, Kasman warned that the overall economic outlook remains uncertain, with a recession still the most likely scenario.
“We think the tariff shock amounts to a significant tax increase, likely to hit households hardest,” he said. “That pressure, combined with slowing immigration and reduced government spending, creates a negative feedback loop. This shock gets amplified through weakened sentiment.”
