Malcy’s Blog – Oil price, Genel, Reabold/Union Jack & finally

WTI $57.24 +9c, Brent $62.51 +22c, Diff -$5.27 +13c, NG $2.79 +2c

By Malcolm Graham-Wood

Oil price

Oil has carried a gentle rally over recent days, primarily as news about the trade talks is generally better although President Trump slightly rained on that parade on Friday. There are many egos in that room and persuading who’s good idea was who’s may be tricky. Chinese oil imports in October were up 11.5% although economy still under pressure.

The rig count fell again which is worth watching but not as much as a proper profit warning  from Weir Group which probably counts for a lot more. Veterans Day holiday today.

Genel Energy

Genel’s Somaliland farm-out process continues, they have increased their stake in the SL10B13 block onshore the country to 100% having acquired East Africa Resource Group’s 25% stake. A farm-out process is now underway with Stellar Energy Advisors appointed to run the process.

‘Interpretation of the 2018 2D seismic data together with basin analysis has identified multiple stacked prospects, with each of them estimated to have resources of c.200 MMbbls. A further program of surface oil seep sampling and analysis reiterates the presence of a working petroleum system on the block.’ There is a detailed presentation on the opportunity on the company’s website.

Reabold Resources/Union Jack Oil

Rathlin (Reabold 59%) have updated on PEDL 183 (Rathlin 66.67%) which contains the West Newton A-1 discovery well and the A-2 appraisal well. It is an internal assessment only with an updated CPR being commissioned.  The base case is now of liquids 146.4 mmbbl OIIP with an upside of 283 mmbbl and gas of 211.5 bcf GIIP and upside of 265.9 bcf.

This is a substantial increase on the 2017 CPR as one might expect, particularly so as the volumes are now so significantly weighted towards oil rather than the preponderance of gas that was initially expected. The shares, in my view rather surprisingly, both fell this morning but that might be more to do with recent or imminent fundraising than to what I consider to be a massively discount of this spectacularly impressive asset which so far hasn’t delivered the inevitable, that is only a  matter of time.

And finally…

The big game in the Prem yesterday saw Liverpool beat the Noisy Neighbours 3-1 and leaves them way out ahead in the race, indeed quite possibly uncatchable. The Foxes are continuing to look like the side who won before, beating the Gooners 2-0, Spurs drew and the table is most exciting.

By Malcolm Graham-Wood

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