According to Smarkets, Liz Truss, UK Foreign Secretary, is expected to succeed Boris Johnson as head of the UK Conservative Party and Prime Minster as the leadership contest enters its final week.
- Boris Johnson’s foreign secretary is the clear front-runner
- Rival Rishi Sunak is rated as having a 10% chance to win the top job
Truss and Rishi Sunak are on a six-week tour to hustings in the UK, competing for votes from around 175,000 Tory party members. According to Smarkets, Sunak’s chances of becoming Prime Minister have dropped to 10%. September 5th will see the results.
Matthew Shaddick from Smarkets, head of political markets, stated that Truss was initially rated as a 60-40 favourite to win the race when it narrowed down to two final candidates. But the odds have continued to favour her,” he said. Many predicted that Rishi Sunak would win, but Truss has performed better in the debate than they expected.
According to a poll by 507 Tory party members, Truss has pledged to reduce taxes as soon as her office takes over.
According to Oddschecker, Truss is also odds-on at other sites — she’s 1/8 with Ladbrokes and Paddy Power, as well as William Hill. Sunak, who resigned earlier this month to help trigger the downfall of the prime minister, is 6/1 with Sky.
You should take the odds of betting on politics with a grain of salt. They reflect the opinions of a small number of ordinary citizens and have low liquidity levels compared to other markets. They do however give clues about the direction of travel in a constantly changing world.
