{"id":132401,"title":"Kodal Minerals (AIM: KOD) – Flash Note – From maiden production to scaled growth at Bougouni","publisher":"Share Talk","author":"sharetalk","published":"2026-02-09T11:08:42+00:00","modified":"2026-02-09T11:08:42+00:00","canonical_url":"https://www.share-talk.com/kodal-minerals-aim-kod-flash-note-from-maiden-production-to-scaled-growth-at-bougouni/","markdown_url":"https://www.share-talk.com/kodal-minerals-aim-kod-flash-note-from-maiden-production-to-scaled-growth-at-bougouni.md","json_url":"https://www.share-talk.com/kodal-minerals-aim-kod-flash-note-from-maiden-production-to-scaled-growth-at-bougouni.json","category":"Investment Reports","categories":["Investment Reports"],"tags":["Alphabet","Amazon","Apple","Bernard Aylward","Bougouni","CEO","china","investment","KOD","Kodal Minerals","Lithium","marmite","Meta","Share Talk","Small Cap","Tesla"],"featured_image":"https://i0.wp.com/www.share-talk.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/KOD-9-FEB.webp?fit=1200%2C800&quality=80&ssl=1","format":"news","language":"en-GB","content":"**Kodal Minerals* (KOD LN) 0.40p, Mkt Cap £81m – Flash Note – From maiden production to scaled growth at Bougouni**\n\n**BUY – 0.86p**\n\n**[CLICK FOR PDF](https://spangel.email.streetcontxt.net/platform/al?a=12543479&ad=3870049073&h=YQUJWug&sig=Rdq2f6aC5gk9jvCho6MMoutDXT4&v=2&url=https://spangel.worldflowconnect.net/document/open/c378bd79-5b89-4d76-9699-eafe69f459c6/Kodal_Minerals_KOD_Flash_Note_090226.pdf)**\n\n- We update on Kodal Minerals, the only AIM listed pure play hard rock lithium producer, highlighting latest developments at the Bougouni Lithium Mine in southern Mali and expansion plans amid a strong recovery in lithium prices.\n\n- **Bougouni Lithium Mine (32% KOD) was commissioned in early 2025** and is ramping up **Stage 1 (DMS) production to** **~120ktpa SC5.5 (~110ktpa SC6)**, making Kodal the second only lithium producer in the country.\n\n- **Stage 2 (FLO) **commissioning is **targeted for late 2028** and is expected to **increase output to ~240ktpa SC5.5 (~220ktpa SC6)**, supported by a **32Mt @ 1.06% Li2O MRE** and **a medium-term resource target of 50Mt**.\n\n- **Stage 2 is expected to deliver higher tonnage at lower unit costs** (~220ktpa SC6 at ~$700/SC6 FOB AISC vs ~110ktpa SC6 at ~$750/SC6 FOB AISC for Stage 1) and **one of the lowest capital intensities** among hard-rock flotation projects (~$94/ore vs >$300/ore peer average).\n\n- **At $1,750/SC6 CIF, **we estimate** ~$190M Revenue and ~ $110M EBITDA pa under Stage 1**, rising to **~$375M revenue and ~$225M EBITDA pa following Stage 2 commissioning** (100% interest basis).\n\n- **~$190M Stage 2 capex (SPAe; mid point of the guided $175-200M range) is estimated to be self-funded from Stage 1 cash flows at >$1,700/SC6 CIF**, with current spot prices >$2,000 providing a meaningful funding buffer.\n\n- Stage 1 (DMS) is expected to deplete by mid-2029 on the current MRE, with scope to extend feed via additional DMS-amenable material, including Boumou, offering downside protection if Stage 2 is delayed.\n\n- Recent fiscal and security developments in Mali raises jurisdiction risk, although, Bougouni continues to operate and export without disruption.\n\n- **Strong strategic backing from Hainan Mining** (JV partner and ~15% shareholder) that fully funded the Stage 1 (DMS) with a $100M investment and holding 100% offtake from Stage 1 (Stage 2 remains uncontracted and may be used in project funding discussions if required) and continues to provide operational and financial support.\n\n- Leverage to lithium price recovery with **base case valuation assuming $1,750/SC6 CIF**, below current spot prices, offering meaningful upside to NAV and cash generation if prices remain elevated.\n\n- Solid balance sheet with ~£15M cash (Dec/25) and no bank debt.\n\n**Valuation:** **Risked NAV ~US$230M and TP 0.86p at $1,750/SC6 CIF (base case) implying ~115% potential upside and supporting a BUY recommendation. ~$290M and 1.08p at $2,000/SC6 CIF. **Kodal offers compelling upside driven by Stage 1 ramp-up, self-funded Stage 2 expansion and further resource growth potential. A sustained lithium price recovery and successful delivery of the FLO expansion could support valuation upside to >1.0p and beyond, underpinning our positive view on the stock.\n\n**SP Angel acts as financial advisor and broker to Kodal Minerals.*\n\n**Analysts**\n\n**Sergey Raevskiy –**[Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk](mailto:Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk)** – 0203 470 0474**\n\n**John Meyer –**[John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk](mailto:John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk)** – 0203 470 0490**\n\n**Simon Beardsmore – **[Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk](mailto:Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk)** – 0203 470 0484**\n\n**Arthur Parish – **[Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk](mailto:Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk)** – 0203 470 0476**\n\n**Sales**\n\n**Richard Parlons –**[Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk](mailto:Richard.Parlons@spangel.co.uk)** – 0203 470 0472**\n\n**Abigail Wayne –**[Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk](mailto:Abigail.Wayne@spangel.co.uk)** ****– 0203 470 0534**\n\n**Rob Rees –**[Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk](mailto:Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk)[ ](mailto:Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk)**– 0203 470 0535**\n\n**Grant Barker ****– ****Grant.Barker**[@spangel.co.uk](mailto:Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk%20-)[ ](mailto:Rob.Rees@spangel.co.uk%20-)**– 0203 470 0471**\n\nPrince Frederick House\n\n35-39 Maddox Street\n\nLondon, W1S 2PP\n\n*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide *(joint brokerships excluded)*\n\n**+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.**\n\n**DISCLAIMER**\n\nThis note is a marketing communication and comprises non-independent research. 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