---
title: "IG Group Falls Again as Panmure Cuts EBITDA Forecast 18% After Profit Warning"
publisher: "Share Talk"
author: "sharetalk"
published: "2026-10-05T08:49:00+00:00"
modified: "2026-10-05T08:49:00+00:00"
date: 2026-10-05
canonical: "https://www.share-talk.com/ig-group-falls-again-as-panmure-cuts-ebitda-forecast-18-after-profit-warning/"
category: "B2B"
categories: ["B2B", "Blogs", "Business & Support Services", "Technology", "Technology, Media & Telecoms"]
tags: ["Breon Corcoran", "IG Group Holdings Plc", "IGG"]
image: "https://i0.wp.com/www.share-talk.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/c2519f96-2968-4539-8c1d-6f9d6c2c0065.png?fit=1727%2C911&ssl=1"
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---

# IG Group Falls Again as Panmure Cuts EBITDA Forecast 18% After Profit Warning

**Published:** October 5, 2026
**Author:** sharetalk
**Categories:** B2B, Blogs, Business & Support Services, Technology, Technology, Media & Telecoms
**Tags:** Breon Corcoran, IG Group Holdings Plc, IGG
**Featured image:** ![](https://i0.wp.com/www.share-talk.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/c2519f96-2968-4539-8c1d-6f9d6c2c0065.png?fit=1727%2C911&ssl=1)

---

**IG Group Holdings Plc (LON: IGG) shares fell another 2.5% to around 950p on Monday** after Panmure Liberum substantially reduced its earnings forecasts and price target following last week’s trading update.

The broker cut its target price to **1,500p from 2,000p**, although it retained its **Buy** recommendation.

Panmure said the key issue was the sharp deterioration in **over-the-counter revenue retention**, which fell to approximately **70% during the third quarter** from an average of around 80% since the second half of 2025.

That volatility has made IG’s core earnings more difficult to forecast despite continued growth in customer activity.

The broker reduced its **2026 revenue forecast by 8.1% to £1.175 billion**.

Its adjusted EBITDA estimate was cut by **18.3% to £478.8 million**, reflecting both weaker revenue expectations and the lower margin outlook disclosed by IG.

Forecast adjusted earnings per share were reduced by **14.9% to 115.4p**, while estimated year-end net cash was cut by approximately **33% to £162.9 million**.

The revisions follow IG’s warning that 2026 Group revenue growth is now expected to be in the **mid-single-digit percentage range**, while its EBITDA margin is expected to fall into the low-40s.

Panmure stressed that the weakness represents a **retention miss rather than a customer miss**.

IG reported that OTC customer income increased approximately **8% year-on-year**, organic first trades grew more than 25%, and organic active customer numbers increased around 17%.

That means trading activity and customer acquisition remain healthy, but IG retained a smaller proportion of the income generated from that activity during Q3.

The broker now forecasts **fourth-quarter revenue of £294.4 million**.

Achieving that figure will require OTC revenue retention to recover towards its recent historical average, which Panmure identified as the **main downside risk to its revised forecasts**.

IG’s rapidly growing **Underdog** business remains another potential source of upside, after quarterly net revenue more than doubled year-on-year to approximately $105 million.

Panmure also continues to view IG’s **customer growth and net cash position** positively.

However, it has reduced the valuation multiple applied to the shares to reflect the increased uncertainty around short-term revenue conversion.

For investors, the central issue remains straightforward: **customer engagement has not deteriorated, but IG’s ability to convert that activity into revenue has become substantially less predictable**.

The next important test will be whether OTC retention recovers in Q4. If it does, Panmure’s revised forecasts could prove achievable; if retention remains near the Q3 level of 70%, **further earnings downgrades would become a material risk**.

**Investor takeaway:*** IG Group shares fell another 2.5% after Panmure Liberum cut its 2026 EBITDA forecast by 18.3% following last week’s profit warning. The broker argues that IG’s problem is currently revenue retention rather than customer demand, but the sharp Q3 deterioration has made near-term earnings materially less predictable.*

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