{"id":141354,"title":"IG Group Falls Again as Panmure Cuts EBITDA Forecast 18% After Profit Warning","publisher":"Share Talk","author":"sharetalk","published":"2026-10-05T08:49:00+00:00","modified":"2026-10-05T08:49:00+00:00","canonical_url":"https://www.share-talk.com/ig-group-falls-again-as-panmure-cuts-ebitda-forecast-18-after-profit-warning/","markdown_url":"https://www.share-talk.com/ig-group-falls-again-as-panmure-cuts-ebitda-forecast-18-after-profit-warning.md","json_url":"https://www.share-talk.com/ig-group-falls-again-as-panmure-cuts-ebitda-forecast-18-after-profit-warning.json","category":"B2B","categories":["B2B","Blogs","Business & Support Services","Technology","Technology, Media & Telecoms"],"tags":["Breon Corcoran","IG Group Holdings Plc","IGG"],"featured_image":"https://i0.wp.com/www.share-talk.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/c2519f96-2968-4539-8c1d-6f9d6c2c0065.png?fit=1727%2C911&ssl=1","format":"news","language":"en-GB","content":"**IG Group Holdings Plc (LON: IGG) shares fell another 2.5% to around 950p on Monday** after Panmure Liberum substantially reduced its earnings forecasts and price target following last week’s trading update.\n\nThe broker cut its target price to **1,500p from 2,000p**, although it retained its **Buy** recommendation.\n\nPanmure said the key issue was the sharp deterioration in **over-the-counter revenue retention**, which fell to approximately **70% during the third quarter** from an average of around 80% since the second half of 2025.\n\nThat volatility has made IG’s core earnings more difficult to forecast despite continued growth in customer activity.\n\nThe broker reduced its **2026 revenue forecast by 8.1% to £1.175 billion**.\n\nIts adjusted EBITDA estimate was cut by **18.3% to £478.8 million**, reflecting both weaker revenue expectations and the lower margin outlook disclosed by IG.\n\nForecast adjusted earnings per share were reduced by **14.9% to 115.4p**, while estimated year-end net cash was cut by approximately **33% to £162.9 million**.\n\nThe revisions follow IG’s warning that 2026 Group revenue growth is now expected to be in the **mid-single-digit percentage range**, while its EBITDA margin is expected to fall into the low-40s.\n\nPanmure stressed that the weakness represents a **retention miss rather than a customer miss**.\n\nIG reported that OTC customer income increased approximately **8% year-on-year**, organic first trades grew more than 25%, and organic active customer numbers increased around 17%.\n\nThat means trading activity and customer acquisition remain healthy, but IG retained a smaller proportion of the income generated from that activity during Q3.\n\nThe broker now forecasts **fourth-quarter revenue of £294.4 million**.\n\nAchieving that figure will require OTC revenue retention to recover towards its recent historical average, which Panmure identified as the **main downside risk to its revised forecasts**.\n\nIG’s rapidly growing **Underdog** business remains another potential source of upside, after quarterly net revenue more than doubled year-on-year to approximately $105 million.\n\nPanmure also continues to view IG’s **customer growth and net cash position** positively.\n\nHowever, it has reduced the valuation multiple applied to the shares to reflect the increased uncertainty around short-term revenue conversion.\n\nFor investors, the central issue remains straightforward: **customer engagement has not deteriorated, but IG’s ability to convert that activity into revenue has become substantially less predictable**.\n\nThe next important test will be whether OTC retention recovers in Q4. If it does, Panmure’s revised forecasts could prove achievable; if retention remains near the Q3 level of 70%, **further earnings downgrades would become a material risk**.\n\n**Investor takeaway:*** IG Group shares fell another 2.5% after Panmure Liberum cut its 2026 EBITDA forecast by 18.3% following last week’s profit warning. The broker argues that IG’s problem is currently revenue retention rather than customer demand, but the sharp Q3 deterioration has made near-term earnings materially less predictable.*"}