---
title: "Goldman Sachs Predicts Bank of England Rate Cut Next Week – City Still Expects a Hold"
publisher: "Share Talk"
author: "sharetalk"
published: "2025-10-29T17:36:09+00:00"
modified: "2025-10-29T17:36:09+00:00"
date: 2025-10-29
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---

# Goldman Sachs Predicts Bank of England Rate Cut Next Week – City Still Expects a Hold

**Published:** October 29, 2025
**Author:** sharetalk
**Categories:** Blogs, Business & Support Services, Technology, Technology, Media & Telecoms
**Tags:** Bank of America, Bank of England, banking, BARC, Barclays, Benchmark, BoE, buyback, Chancellor, childcare, CME Group, consumers, Coverage, CS Venkatakrishnan, Deutsche Bank, domestic, energy bill, England, FCA, Fed, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Federal Reserve, FREE, FTSE 100, FTSE 250, FTSE100, futures, Goldman Sachs, household, HSBC, HSBC Holdings, Inflation, investors, Jeremy Hunt, Legal & General, lending, Lloyds Banking Group, London, MCP, midcap index, Monetary Policy Committee, NatWest Group, Ofgem, pandemic, price cap, Prime Minister, program, Prudential, Qatar, Regulators, Rishi Sunak, SEC, Serious Fraud Office, share, Share Talk, ShareHolders, silicon valley, Silicon Valley Bank, SIVB, SVB, The Bank of England, Traders, Treasury, UK, Underground, USA, Wall Street
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Goldman Sachs now expects the **Bank of England to cut interest rates at next week’s meeting**, reversing its post-September view and diverging from broader City expectations of no change. Swap markets are pricing **just 7.3 basis points of cuts** for this meeting, implying most traders still see the **MPC on hold**.

Goldman cites **services inflation undershooting MPC forecasts**, **cooling private-sector pay growth**, and **softer GDP** as drivers of its U-turn.

Not everyone agrees. **Matt Swannell** of the **EY ITEM Club** says recent macro data are “**unlikely to move the needle**,” predicting a **7–2 vote to hold**, despite a divided committee. “**Both dovish and hawkish voices** will have plenty to back their views,” he adds, with the MPC unlikely to pre-commit to either a **December cut** or a continued hold.

**UBS economist Anna Titareva** also expects **no change next week**, possibly with **two or three dissenters**, breaking the pattern of **quarterly cuts** and marking a **second straight hold**. She sees the **next move in February**, while noting the odds of a **December cut** have risen; markets currently price a **cumulative 16.5bps** of easing by year-end.

**What would trigger a December cut?**UBS says the MPC would want **further disinflation evidence**, **slower wage growth**, and reassurance that the **Autumn Budget** has **minimal inflation impact**. Even then, the Committee may wait for **February’s updated projections** to avoid signalling **back-to-back cuts**.

All eyes will be on **Governor Andrew Bailey** at next week’s press conference for clues on the near-term path.

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