Gold prices could climb to nearly $5,000 an ounce if President Donald Trump continues to undermine the independence of the US Federal Reserve, according to a new report from Goldman Sachs.
The investment bank warned that weakening the Fed’s autonomy could trigger a wave of investor concern, prompting capital to flow from US Treasuries into gold. “A scenario where Fed independence is damaged would likely lead to higher inflation, lower stock and long-dated bond prices, and an erosion of the dollar’s reserve-currency status,” analysts wrote. “In contrast, gold is a store of value that doesn’t rely on institutional trust.”
Gold has already seen a strong rally this year, hitting a record high of $3,578 an ounce earlier this week. It is currently one of the top-performing major commodities in 2025.
Goldman Sachs projects a base case of $4,000 an ounce by mid-2026, but says prices could approach $5,000 if just 1% of the US Treasury market were to rotate into gold.
The rally has been fuelled by rising central bank gold purchases and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve may begin cutting interest rates.
