The final major poll of the general election predicts that Nigel Farage’s party will secure 17 per cent of the vote on Thursday. Reform UK is on course to win 13 MPs, according to this latest poll.
Mr Farage re-entered frontline politics to lead the insurgent party in the second week of the election, resulting in a surge in the polls.
For the final survey of the campaign, Survation interviewed 1,679 British adults between Monday, July 1, and Wednesday, July 3.
An earlier seat-by-seat prediction that Reform UK would win seven seats has been revised upwards to 13, with the party also expected to gain 17 per cent of the popular vote.
The Labour Party Looks Poised for Historic Victory
Sir Keir Starmer is projected to achieve a larger landslide for Labour than Sir Tony Blair, with 475 seats.
However, this would come from just 37.6 per cent of the vote, a smaller share than the 40 per cent achieved by Jeremy Corbyn when he lost the 2017 general election.
The Conservatives were projected to win 19.9 per cent, the Liberal Democrats 12.1 per cent, and the Green Party 7.2 per cent. This would result in the Tories securing 64 seats, less than one-fifth of the 349 MPs the party had at the end of the last parliament when Rishi Sunak called the election.
They would be only four seats ahead of the Liberal Democrats, who were set to win 60 seats by making significant gains in the ‘Blue Wall’—traditional Tory heartland seats in the Home Counties.
Survation arrived at its prediction by surveying 34,558 respondents over previous weeks and forecasting which constituencies would vote for which parties.
After completing its interviews between Monday and Wednesday, these findings were applied to its seat-by-seat poll.
The firm’s data analysts stated, “The Conservative Party is virtually certain to win a lower share of the vote than at any past general election.”
They also claimed it was “99.9 per cent” certain Labour would win more than 418 seats, surpassing the number achieved by Sir Tony Blair 27 years ago when the party last returned to office.
